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Straits Times
09-05-2025
- Politics
- Straits Times
Why multi-cornered fights didn't matter in GE2025
There were five multi-cornered contests in this election, the highest number in decades. ST PHOTO: LIM YAOHUI SINGAPORE - The results of the 2025 General Election have shown clearly that multi-cornered fights are inconsequential in Singapore, said political analysts. Voters in this election preferred the familiar and the status quo, which meant giving their support to both the PAP and the WP, noted Associate Professor Chong Ja Ian from the National University of Singapore's department of political science. 'Parties that seemed less familiar saw a sharp drop in support, making multi-cornered fights less important,' he added. There were five such contests in this election, the highest number in decades. There were just two in the 2020 election and three in 2015. Multi-cornered fights were 'absolutely inconsequential' in this election, said political analyst Tan Ern Ser, adjunct principal research fellow and academic adviser at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) Social Lab. 'The fact that the teams sent by the smaller parties paled in comparison to the more established party, like WP, was good enough reason for voters to choose the more viable, credible party,' he added. In the weeks leading up to the election, several opposition politicians said they wished to avoid multi-cornered fights which would split the opposition vote. Two new alliances emerged, agreeing to avoid multi-cornered fights among their own members. The People's Alliance for Reform (PAR) brought the Democratic Progressive Party, the People's Power Party (PPP), Peoples Voice and the Reform Party under one banner, and an informal 'coalition' was formed between the National Solidarity Party (NSP), Red Dot United (RDU), the Singapore People's Party (SPP) and the Singapore United Party (SUP). However, the alliances did not preclude multi-cornered fights with other non-member parties, and both also shed members ahead of Nomination Day, with the PPP withdrawing from PAR and RDU withdrawing from the coalition. At the same time, some opposition party leaders publicly stated they would not move aside for other parties, citing their need to grow and their previous groundwork in certain constituencies. Previous elections saw various opposition parties coming together for 'horse-trading' talks to discuss who would contest where, but such talks fell through this time, with most negotiations taking place bilaterally between the parties. Just days before Nomination Day, WP secretary-general Pritam Singh told the media that multi-cornered fights were to be expected, as the party did not attend talks with other parties and had no interest in making way for them . In electoral politics, the phenomenon of a losing candidate who affects the outcome of a multi-cornered electoral contest by splitting the vote is sometimes referred to as a 'spoiler effect'. A third party would be a spoiler in a three-cornered fight if its supporters would have voted for one of the other parties in a straight fight, and the additional votes would have been enough for that party to win. No spoilers have been observed in a parliamentary election since independence. Historically, the vast majority of such fights resulted in at least one party failing to garner at least 12.5 per cent of the vote and losing their deposits. These trends continued to hold true in the 2025 election. There were no spoilers across the five constituencies contested by three or more parties, where the PAP won decisively with more than 50 per cent of the vote. In total, 27 candidates from the NSP, PAR, PPP and SUP collectively forfeited $364,500 in election deposits, all of whom took part in multi-cornered fights. In Tampines GRC, where the PAP faced the WP as well as teams from the PPP and the NSP, voters seemed to have 'abandoned' the latter two parties, leaving them with a negligible level of support, noted Prof Chong. The five-member group representation constituency ended up being the second-closest fight for the WP, while both the PPP and the NSP garnered below 1 per cent of the vote. In constituencies not contested by the WP, other parties received more votes but were still 'far short of winning', Prof Chong added. In Ang Mo Kio GRC, the PPP and the SUP both lost their deposits after garnering a little more than 10 per cent of the vote each in a three-cornered fight against the PAP. Prof Chong said the creation of the GRC system, which first came into effect in 1988, has made the idea of opposition unity less important as it means parties require both size and resources to be competitive. 'The maturation of the WP into a larger party that could perform well both legislatively and in terms of municipal management meant that it could more easily overwhelm other opposition parties in multi-cornered contests,' he added. IPS Social Lab's Dr Tan said the fact that there were more talks about opposition solidarity and the need to avoid multi-cornered fights in the past suggests that the concern about the opposition vote being diluted was more predominant in theory and practice then. 'But the political landscape has changed over the last decade,' he said. Dr Tan added that Singapore may be gradually shaping up to be, potentially, a two-party system, while Prof Chong said it may evolve into a ' 1½- or two-party system'. 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CNA
06-05-2025
- Politics
- CNA
GE2025: Travel plans, opposition candidate quality among reasons for lower voter turnout, say analysts
SINGAPORE: The lower voter turnout at the recent General Election may have been driven by the timing of the polls and the perceived quality of opposition party candidates in some constituencies, said political observers. The election saw the ruling People's Action Party (PAP) secure a landslide victory, with 65.57 per cent of the national vote. The polls, held on May 3, came shortly after the Labour Day public holiday on a Thursday. This meant many working adults took Friday off to enjoy a four-day weekend – a likely reason for increased travel and lower turnout, analysts told CNA. Only 92.47 per cent of voters turned up to cast their ballot, the lowest figure since the 1968 election. Voter turnout in that election – Singapore's first post-independence contest – was 91.87 per cent. Only seven of 58 seats were contested. By comparison, turnout stood at 95.63 per cent in 2020, 93.56 per cent in 2015, and 93.06 per cent in 2011 – the last time, before 2025, that a constituency went uncontested. HISTORIC LOW TURNOUT Voter absence was notably higher in constituencies with affluent populations, a political analyst pointed out. 'If you look at the voter turnout by constituency, the ones with the most absentees included Tanjong Pagar GRC, Mountbatten SMC, Holland-Bukit Timah GRC and East Coast GRC, all of which have large swathes of affluent neighbourhoods, where perhaps, travel is more rampant than elsewhere,' said Mr Malminderjit Singh, managing director of political consultancy Terra Corporate Affairs. East Coast GRC, contested by the largest opposition party, the Workers' Party (WP), had the fifth-highest absentee rate at 9.22 per cent. National University of Singapore (NUS) associate professor Chong Ja Ian noted that viable opposition candidates tend to boost voter turnout, suggesting that quality matters. Voter paralysis may have also played a part in the more closely fought contests, said Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) research fellow Teo Kay Key. Stuck and unable to decide between candidates, some voters may have simply decided not to make a choice at all. In wards where the ruling party's candidate was seen as much stronger than the opponent, some voters may have stayed home, assuming the result was a foregone conclusion, Dr Teo added. Associate Professor Tan Ern Ser, an adjunct principal research fellow at IPS, added: "They probably didn't want to vote for opposition candidates they didn't think much of, neither did they want to vote for the PAP.' REJECTED VOTES There were 42,829 rejected votes in GE2025 – lower than in the last three elections: 45,822 in 2020, 47,367 in 2015, and 44,737 in 2015. A rejected ballot is one that is unmarked or improperly marked and cannot be counted. Assoc Prof Chong said that voters are more likely to vote more carefully and effectively where there are quality candidates from all parties that 'can actually run a town council and effectively represent you in parliament'. Dr Rebecca Grace Tan, a lecturer with the NUS political science department, said high rejection rates were often seen in constituencies where opposition parties underperformed. This may indicate voter dissatisfaction with available choices. Jalan Besar GRC, contested by the People's Alliance for Reform (PAR), recorded the highest share of rejected ballots at 3.13 per cent. It was followed by Ang Mo Kio GRC, which saw a three-way fight between the PAP, Singapore United Party and the People's Power Party, with 2.72 per cent of the votes rejected. Tanjong Pagar GRC, also contested by PAR, came in third with 2.6 per cent of votes rejected, while Pasir Ris-Changi GRC, contested by Singapore Democratic Alliance, had 2.46 per cent of votes rejected. Jurong East-Bukit Batok GRC, contested by Red Dot United, was in fifth place with 2.24 per cent of spoiled votes. Some voters may have intentionally invalidated their ballots simply to avoid being removed from the electoral roll, given Singapore's mandatory voting laws, said political observers. Others may have made honest mistakes, and inexperienced counting agents may have struggled to dispute questionable rejections effectively, said Mr Singh. 'A more experienced counting agent may dispute rejected votes more effectively, ensuring they are counted and not rejected,' he said. 'With more newer candidates and a higher level of political participation this time, it may not be surprising that there were a higher number of counting agents who were doing this for the first time and thus were less successful in disputing votes that were not clearly marked with an 'X'.' COULD THEY HAVE FLIPPED THE VOTE? While results in many constituencies were not close enough for absentees or invalid votes to have changed the outcome, some contests were much tighter. In Tampines, the difference between the PAP and WP was 6,379 votes, which is lower than the 9,549 people who did not vote, noted Dr Teo. Similarly in Jalan Kayu, where the margin of votes between the PAP's Ng Chee Meng and WP newcomer Andre Low was 806, there were 376 rejected votes and 1,832 absentees, she said. These constituencies had the best-performing losing candidates, earning the WP two Non-Constituency MP seats and bringing its total to 12 seats in parliament. 'Clearly voters were not aware of the importance of their votes,' said independent observer Felix Tan. Still, analysts cautioned against assuming that all missing votes would have favoured the opposition. 'If you extrapolate from the general voting trend we saw this time, they could also have bolstered the PAP's score further,' said Terra Corporate Affairs' Mr Singh. WP chief Pritam Singh himself acknowledged this in post-election comments to the media. 'We never assumed that just because there's a lot of support online or on the ground, that it will translate into votes,' he said.
