Latest news with #ChrisBrandolino
RNZ News
16-07-2025
- Climate
- RNZ News
Concern as signs point to more heavy rain for Nelson Tasman region
The Nelson Tasman region is facing months of work to recover from recent bouts of bad weather. Photo: RNZ/Nathan Mckinnon Forecasters say more bad weather is brewing which could bring significant rain to parts of the country, including the top of the South towards the end of this month and into early August. Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly GNS Science) meteorologist Chris Brandolino said the next seven to 10 days would be dry from tomorrow. It would bring some short-term respite for those involved in the cleanup in the Nelson Tasman region. However, there would be "a pivot point" as the end of the month approached and more heavy rain could be on the horizon. Brandolino said the source centred on the Tropics which has been experiencing a lot of unusually warm water and there was a tilt toward La Niña conditions. When that happened in the north it resulted in more rain and thunderstorms in Australasia. "So when these lows come across from Australia or the Tasman Sea there is this source of moisture pooling and waiting, and if that area is active with rain and thunderstorms, that low pressure over the Tasman Sea when it does form, it can tap into that moisture over the Coral Sea, over Papua New Guinea, over the West Pacific and the Tropics and siphon that down." That is what the top regions of the South Island have been experiencing in the last few weeks, Brandolino said. "It is a river in the sky that's able to leverage that moisture and turn it into rain." It would take a break but in about 10 days the weather would change again. "That's the concern - there could be these areas of heavy rain again ... those are the themes that are emerging for very late this month and as we work into the first week of August." An example of some of the widespread damage to roads and infrastructure in the Nelson Tasman areas. Photo: Supplied/ Nick Smith An army of volunteers has swung into action in the Nelson Tasman region to help flood-affected farmers and orchardists with the massive cleanup ahead. It comes as the government announces a $600,000 support package for farmers, growers and foresters across the battered district. The chairperson of the Top of the South Rural Support Trust Richard Kempthorne told Morning Report the funding was "great news" and "very helpful". He expected there would be a lot of requests to the Mayoral Relief Fund, which will receive the largest portion, for things that weren't covered by insurance. As a former mayor of Tasman District, he had seen many adverse weather events. "This surpasses all of them by quite a chunk. ... It's just enormous, you cannot plan for it." The cleanup could be "swamping and daunting" and he advised people to try and take it one step at a time to avoid being overwhelmed. Farmers and growers should ask for help if they needed it, Kempthorne said. Silt, stones and debris would need to be removed by heavy machinery while the standing up of fences would also be a priority. There was a lot of thought going into what needed to happen in the river system and stopbanks in the longterm, Kempthorne said.
Time of India
12-07-2025
- Climate
- Time of India
Why is Tasman getting so much rain? Subtropical weather pattern fuels third deluge
Tasman and Nelson in New Zealand's South Island have been battered by a third severe rainstorm in just over two weeks, with local authorities declaring a state of emergency. Meteorologists are also warning that the pattern could continue into the coming months. Once known for its sunny climate, the region has instead faced relentless rain, with homes evacuated and streams and rivers threatening to flood. Experts say the intense and repeated rainfall is the result of a specific arrangement of weather systems, one that's unusual, but not unprecedented for the region. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Bebe una taza cada mañana y descubre lo que pasa una semana después. Té mágico desintoxicante Undo 'We are so saturated,' said Tasman Mayor Tim King to RNZ. 'The groundwater is literally already at the ground level. So every bit of rain that falls runs off… it's fair to say I'm pretty concerned.' According to Earth Sciences NZ, which includes NIWA and GNS Science, the current pattern involves atmospheric rivers , long, narrow bands of moisture-rich air, streaming in from the sub-tropics and tropics. Live Events These systems funnel warm, wet air directly into the northwest of the South Island, bringing heavy, prolonged downpours. What is the reason for flooding? Chris Brandolino, principal scientist of forecasting and media at Earth Sciences NZ, explained that the current conditions are a classic recipe for flooding in Nelson and Tasman. 'When there's a deep depression in the eastern Tasman Sea and a large anticyclone east of New Zealand, it creates a strong northerly flow of moist air,' he said. 'That's what we're seeing now.' The MetService pressure map for Friday, July 11, showed precisely this setup. The northern regions of the South Island are particularly exposed to such northerly systems while being sheltered from the south and west. 'This kind of pattern increases the odds for big rainfall events,' Brandolino said. 'We're in one right now, and it looks set to continue.' Is it the region's usual climate? While such events are not unheard of, they're certainly not common for the area. The Waimea Plains and greater Tasman region are usually protected from severe weather by surrounding hills and mountain ranges, enjoying mild, less windy conditions than most of New Zealand. But the current back-to-back storms have overwhelmed local catchments, with rainfall setting records since late June. The saturated ground means new rain has nowhere to go, quickly swelling rivers and flooding roads and homes. More rain likely in the coming months The pattern, which began in late June and led to states of emergency across Tasman, Nelson, and Marlborough, is unlikely to ease anytime soon. The NIWA Climate Outlook for July to September warns of further tropical and sub-tropical influences, increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and flooding. 'There's a high likelihood for these kinds of low-pressure systems to keep affecting New Zealand,' said Brandolino. 'This may mean more active weather toward the end of July and even into early August.' Locals brace for continued impacts With saturated soils and full waterways, even moderate rainfall could now pose serious risks. Emergency management authorities and local councils continue to monitor the situation, urging residents to remain prepared and alert. 'This is the third event in just over two weeks,' said King. 'The community is resilient, but we're exhausted—and still in the thick of it.'
Otago Daily Times
08-07-2025
- Climate
- Otago Daily Times
More drenchings forecast
A truck and a car negotiate recent flooding in Portobello Rd, near Bays Junction. PHOTO: STEPHEN JAQUIERY More significant rainfall and flooding events may drench coastal parts of Otago over the next three months, as moisture from the tropics and low pressure systems flow over the country. Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly Niwa) forecasting principal scientist Chris Brandolino said global climate models were strongly signalling the possibility of enhanced low-level convergence in the western Pacific and areas north of New Zealand. "This could draw tropical and subtropical air masses into our region, increasing the likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions over the next three months. "There is therefore an elevated risk for heavy rainfall events, including those associated with landfalling atmospheric rivers." It could lead to potentially significant rainfall and flooding events, he said. However, it also meant seasonal air temperatures between July and September were expected to be above average across all regions of New Zealand. "Thus, while cold snaps and frost will occur, they are expected to be less frequent than usual." Around coastal Otago, temperatures were most likely to be above average, rainfall totals were about equally likely to be above normal or near normal, and soil moisture levels and river flows were about equally likely to be near normal or above normal, he said. "Chances for heavy rainfall events are considered elevated during the three-month period, potentially leading to flooding, particularly in areas with saturated soils." On the West Coast, Southern Alps and foothills, inland Otago, and Southland, temperatures were also most likely to be above average, he said. But rainfall totals were about equally likely to be near normal or below normal, soil moisture levels were about equally likely to be near normal or above normal, and river flows were most likely to be near normal. Mr Brandolino said Enso-neutral weather conditions remained present in the tropical Pacific. Last month, atmospheric patterns in the Pacific continued to be intermittently consistent with weak La Nina conditions, but more recently, ocean temperatures had shifted away from previous La Nina-like characteristics.
Scoop
01-07-2025
- Climate
- Scoop
Warmer Outlook Ahead With Elevated Heavy Rainfall Risk For Parts Of New Zealand
The second half of 2025 is likely to see a wet start, with warmer than average temperatures across all New Zealand, according to Earth Sciences New Zealand's (formerly NIWA) Seasonal Climate Outlook for July to September. Tropical weather patterns are expected to influence New Zealand over the next quarter, says Earth Sciences New Zealand principal scientist and meteorologist Chris Brandolino. "There is a high likelihood for tropical and sub-tropical influences, and low-pressure systems, to affect the country over the next three months, leading to potentially significant rainfall and increased risk for flooding, particularly in already-saturated areas. Rainfall is expected to be above normal in the north of both islands, and near normal or above normal elsewhere, except for the West Coast of the South Island, where drier than usual conditions are possible." Seasonal air temperatures are expected to be above average across all regions of New Zealand for the three-month period, he says. "So while cold snaps and frost will occur, they are expected to be less frequent than usual." More region-specific information is available in the latest Seasonal Climate Outlook ( Seasonal Climate Outlook July - September 2025 | Earth Sciences New Zealand | NIWA), which is released each month. On 1 July 2025, GNS Science and NIWA - both internationally recognised research organisations - merged to create Earth Sciences New Zealand.
RNZ News
19-06-2025
- Climate
- RNZ News
Forecast suggests best chance of seeing Matariki stars on East Coast
The Matariki star cluster will be visible on New Zealand's eastern horizon just before dawn. Photo: Quin Tauetau People hoping to catch a glimpse of the Matariki stars over the long weekend will have the best chance on the East Coast. The star cluster will be visible on New Zealand's eastern horizon just before dawn. NIWA's cloud cover forecast showed Eastern regions such as Hawke's Bay, Wairarapa, and the lower North Island, along with parts of the upper and eastern South Island, can expect clearer skies than other regions. Meteorologist Chris Brandolino said stargazers could check the cloud cover forecast on Vimeo, which would be updated at 3.30pm each day for the following morning. Brandolino said the east of the South Island would get the best views. "As you get farther to the north of Dunedin, over toward Timaru, Oamaru, Christchurch and farther north toward perhaps even Kaikōura, there will be some pretty good viewing conditions." He said there were actions people could take to get a better view. "If you can find an area where there's no street lights or a lack of street lights - or maybe take a 10 minute drive to where you're a bit more removed from the urban areas." Forecast by region: Upper North Island (including Auckland, Hamilton, Tauranga, Coromandel Peninsula) East Coast (including Gisborne, Napier, Wairarapa) Western North Island (including New Plymouth, Whanganui) Lower North Island (including Wellington) Upper South Island (including Nelson, Blenheim) Eastern South Island (including Christchurch, Timaru) West Coast (including Greymouth, Hokitika) Lakes Region (including Queenstown, Wanaka) Lower South Island (including Dunedin, Invercargill) Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
