Latest news with #ChrisGodwin
Yahoo
a day ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
Fantasy Football: Regression is coming for these WRs — one way or another
In this installment of the touchdown trends series, we'll be taking a look at the wide receiver position. Last year's iteration of this piece was a smashing success. Chris Godwin was on pace for 12 scores before injury derailed his season, and both Garrett Wilson and Drake London more than doubled their 2023 touchdown totals in 2024. Meanwhile, while Courtland Sutton was still effective, he regressed slightly in the scoring department, while Tank Dell found the paint just three times in 14 games played. Advertisement [Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season] As always, the data isn't prophetic — and interpreting it isn't a perfect science — but there's clearly merit in the investigation. As a reminder, the strategy is to evaluate touchdown rates (per target) from various field positions and to spotlight the outlier players on both sides of the sample. Here's a look at the data from the last 10 years to set a baseline. TD Rates by WRs. (Photo by With all this math in mind, here are six names to note coming off last season's results and heading into 2025 fantasy drafts. Which Wide Receiver Should Score More in 2025? Honorable Mention: I'm just going to throw it out there. Elijah Moore has major sleeper potential in Buffalo. After scoring at historically low rates with awful QB play his entire career, the 25-year-old now has a chance to make an impact with Josh Allen. All he has to do is find targets on a depth chart led by Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman,and Joshua Palmer. Not a bad dart throw at the end of best-ball drafts, or a waiver wire flag in redraft. Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams 2024 Expected Total TDs - 5.1 2024 Actual Total TDs - 3 Total TDs Below Expectation - 2.1 Advertisement Puka Nacua is another incredibly easy lock to outscore his 2024 touchdown total, as he both missed six games and underperformed in the efficiency department. Nacua has not been a particularly great touchdown scorer in either of his first two seasons, but a lot of that could be attributed to the presence of Cooper Kupp and Demarcus Robinson. Those two receivers saw a combined 48 red-zone targets over the last two years, scoring 16 combined touchdowns, and both are out of the picture for 2025. Granted, they were replaced by Davante Adams, who's an effective red-zone threat himself, but statistically, we should still expect Nacua's red-zone opportunities to increase. [Visit 4for4 for more fantasy football analysis] Additionally, Matthew Stafford was hampered by injuries over various stretches of last season, and posted a 3.9% touchdown rate that fell well below his career average as a result. Given the talent and the tape on both Stafford and Nacua, I'm willing to bet on significant improvement in 2025. In fact, with Nacua's particularly dominant physical skills, I would not be shocked to see a huge touchdown breakout this season. With upwards of 150-160 targets on deck for the 23-year-old, expectation would set the line at 6-7 touchdowns — I'd take the over with the possibility to threaten for double-digit scores. Which Wide Receivers Should Score Less in 2025? Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders 2024 Expected Total TDs - 5.6 2024 Actual Total TDs - 13 Total TDs Above Expectation - 7.4 Advertisement Terry McLaurin's 13 touchdowns on 117 targets for a rate of 11.1% wasn't just the biggest outlier of 2024. It was tied for the third-highest in the last decade among wide receivers with 110+ targets in a season. The only names in that sample to post a higher rate were Mike Evans in 2021 (12.3%) and Davante Adams in 2020 (12.1%). The only other names in the sample to hit 10% or higher were Tyreek Hill (2020), Ja'Marr Chase (2021) and Mike Evans (2024). What I'm trying to tell you is that McLaurin's numbers were exceptionally inflated, and that he is not the caliber of receiver we might trust to repeat in the future. And the culprit was clear: McLaurin scored on 87.5% of his end-zone targets and 71.5% of his red-zone targets. That's patently absurd. As good as Jayden Daniels is — and he's very good — this duo is not going to find that kind of scoring efficiency again in 2025. And while it's not impossible that McLaurin sees a bump in targets — he'd been closer to 130 the prior three years — that's still only six or seven touchdowns at league average scoring rates (which are better, in turn, than his own career rates before last year). McLaurin should be good again — perhaps middling WR2 levels of good — but his receiving TD total betting line is half of his 2025 touchdown total (6.5). There aren't many mathematical certainties in fantasy football, but I'd bet the house McLaurin scores less this season than he did last. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions 2024 Expected Total TDs - 6.8 2024 Actual Total TDs - 12 Total TDs Above Expectation - 5.2 Advertisement Through his first three career seasons, Amon-Ra St. Brown quickly established himself as one of the best possession receivers in the league. During that time, he logged a touchdown rate of 4.9%, almost exactly the league average. Then, in 2024, he hit 8.5% in total, while scoring on nine of 15 red-zone targets (60%). For some context on how "outliery" his production was, St. Brown's 11.0 yards per reception was the lowest by any player wideout to score 12+ touchdowns since T.J. Houshmandzadeh in 2007. St. Brown's skill set is very conducive to high target totals and high reception totals, but not to high touchdown totals. Even in a breakout 2023 season in which he scored 10 touchdowns for the first time, it took him 164 targets to get there at a touchdown rate of 6.1%. On top of the mathematical concerns, we have to consider the departure of Ben Johnson. It's turned me a little sour on most of the Detroit offense at cost (perhaps excluding Jahmyr Gibbs), as I think it will hurt the offense's overall efficiency and presence in the red zone. We've also heard reports that the coaching staff is getting excited about Jameson Williams, who was a surprisingly effective scoring threat last year and could record more raw touchdowns in 2025. All told, despite how excellent ARSB is as a slot receiver and a possession star, I would almost guarantee he drops back below double-digit touchdowns in 2025. That does raise some concern at his first-round ADP. And while St. Brown is the safer bet with the higher floor, he has an even lower ceiling than someone like Brian Thomas Jr. does, and the missing touchdowns are a major reason why. This story originally appeared in its full form on
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
Buccaneers Predicted To Replicate 'Elite Offense' With 1 Big If
Buccaneers Predicted To Replicate 'Elite Offense' With 1 Big If originally appeared on Athlon Sports. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had so much talent around Baker Mayfield last season that even with the injury bug plaguing both sides of the ball, the franchise still won 10 games, won the division, and secured playoff football. Advertisement That was with Chris Godwin missing after Week 7, Mike Evans missing a month, and Mayfield having to rely on Jalen McMillan, Cade Otton, and Sterling Shepard, along with running backs Bucky Irving and Rachaad White. And it worked well. Now, we add a healthy Godwin, first-round pick Emeka Egbuka, plus all starting five offensive linemen returning, along with the expected improvement of the other players on the roster, that feels like a great offense to us. And CBS Sports thinks so one condition. "Even with another change at OC, the Buccaneers are well-positioned to maintain their standing as an elite offense," CBS Sports wrote. "The club retained Chris Godwin in free agency, still has Mike Evans entrenched as the top option, and has emerging talent across the skill positions. They drafted wideout Emeka Egbuka in the first round of the NFL Draft and saw both tight end Cade Otton and running back Bucky Irving break out in 2024. Advertisement "So long as this group can stay healthy, they have the firepower to go toe to toe with any offense in the NFL, thus giving them a strong lane toward another NFC South title." Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) tries to avoid a tackle by Denver Broncos linebacker Nik Bonitto (15) in the fourth quarter at Raymond James Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images Being healthy is the biggest thing. Losing Godwin and Evans at the same time hurt the Buccaneers and played a role in a four-game losing streak that threatened to derail the season. But the bye came at the right time (Week 11), Tampa got healthy and rattled off six wins in the last seven games to make the playoffs. If, and that's a big if, the injury bug can be kept at arm's length in 2025, then what this unit under the guidance of Josh Grizzard could become is rather interesting. Advertisement An elite offense, though? Yeah, there's every chance of that. Related: Buccaneers Hall of Famer Reveals Honest Take on Baker Mayfield Related: Buccaneers' Bucky Irving Can Make History in 2025 This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jul 1, 2025, where it first appeared.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
Buccaneers' Baker Mayfield Breaks Records If 'Things Go Right' In 2025
Buccaneers' Baker Mayfield Breaks Records If 'Things Go Right' In 2025 originally appeared on Athlon Sports. Tampa Bay Buccaneers general manager Jason Licht has given Baker Mayfield everything he needs to be successful in 2025. Advertisement The entire starting offensive line returns, he has a run game led by Bucky Irving and Rachaad White, plus Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan, Emeka Egbuka, and tight end Cade Otton as his weapons. That's quite a collection of talent. For Fox Sports' Henry McKenna, in his "what could go right" scenario in 2025, Mayfield might just break records because of it. "This offense could be that good," McKenna writes. "Not only is Chris Godwin coming back from injury, but the Buccaneers have brought in Emeka Egbuka to add more firepower with Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan. Bucky Irving should only be better in Year 2. There's so much to like about the talent at every position on this offense." Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) is pressured by San Francisco 49ers defensive end Leonard Floyd (56)© Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images Could Baker really set records? Let's have a look. Advertisement Last season, with missing Evans for a month, and Godwin after Week 7, Mayfield still threw for 4,500 passing yards and 41 touchdowns. Now with Godwin back, so too Evans, along with Egbuka and the expected improvement of McMillan, could Mayfield really get into record-breaking territory? Peyton Manning holds the record for most passing yards in a season (5,477) and touchdowns in a season (55). The touchdowns seem the most logical one to break, given he was only 14 away last season. But even then, it is a tall order. Plus, let's not forget how well Tampa Bay runs the football, so Irving and White will take some of the passing snaps as well, so factor that in. Advertisement Mayfield breaking records is a fun thought, and yes, he has the weapons to do it, but color us skeptical on him actually doing it. But if he did? My word, that would put an exclamation mark on his career resurgence. Related: Bucs GM 'Very, Very Excited' About Next Season Related: Analyst Believes 2025 Could Be Final Season for Buccaneers Legend This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 28, 2025, where it first appeared.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
Buccaneers Get Huge Confidence Boost In Latest Offensive Rankings
Buccaneers Get Huge Confidence Boost In Latest Offensive Rankings originally appeared on Athlon Sports. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers under Liam Coen had one of the best offenses in football last season. Behind a stellar run game led by Bucky Irving, along with Baker Mayfield and his 4,500 passing yards and 41 touchdowns, the Buccaneers were potent. Advertisement And they're going to be better in 2025 with the addition of Emeka Egbuka and a healthy Chris Godwin. So much so that for Pro Football Network, when ranking the top offenses ahead of the 2025 season, Tampa Bay has gotten its flowers, coming in at No. 3, with only the Baltimore Ravens (2) and Detroit Lions (1) ahead of them. "Baker Mayfield posted his best Offense+ grade (92.2) ever to earn the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a third-place finish for the season, something that speaks to the depth of the talent in this league," Pro Football Network writes. "Life comes at you fast in the NFL, and there are no signs of last year's success being a fluke. In fact, one could argue that, given Bucky Irving's sparkling advanced profile as a rookie, the Bucs have more room for improvement than the other handful of teams in this top tier." Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) tries to avoid a tackle by Denver Broncos linebacker Nik Bonitto (15) in the fourth quarter at Raymond James Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images That is quite the tick of approval. Advertisement Granted, this list is subjective, but there is every reason to suggest that the Buccaneers will at least have a top-10 offense in football, even with a new coordinator in Josh Grizzard. There are so many weapons in the passing game, the rushing attack is great, and the starting five of the offensive line all return. So expect the Buccaneers to at least be as good as last season if Grizzard can get his ideas across early enough. But the third-best offense in football? We'll let the cake bake on that. Related: Buccaneers Just Miss Top 10 NFL Power Rankings Placement Related: Buccaneers' Baker Mayfield Was Better Last Season In One Key Passing Stat This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 29, 2025, where it first appeared.
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
Buccaneers' Wide Receiver Ranked in NFL's 'Bounce-Back' Players for 2025
Buccaneers' Wide Receiver Ranked in NFL's 'Bounce-Back' Players for 2025 originally appeared on Athlon Sports. After Chris Godwin was lost for the season last year in a Week 7 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are looking forward to his return in 2025. Advertisement Godwin was leading the NFL with 50 catches and 576 yards when he went down last season. He also had posted five touchdowns. The Bucs are hoping for a healthy return in 2025 where they can add him to a re-tooled wideout room that includes former Ohio State Buckeyes receiver Emeka Egbuka, who general manager Jason Licht grabbed with the No. 19 overall pick in the first round this year. Bleacher Report's Moe Moton has Godwin No. 8 on his list of the top bounce-back candidates for 2025. "Before Chris Godwin dislocated his ankle in Week 7 of the previous season, he averaged 82.3 receiving yards per game, his second-highest rate in a single term," Moton wrote. "Some managers have concerns about Godwin because of his recovery timetable, the Buccaneers losing offensive coordinator Liam Coen and the addition of rookie first-round wideout Emeka Egbuka. While those factors cloud Godwin's outlook, he remains the Buccaneers' most dynamic receiver, still in his prime. At 31, Mike Evans barely kept his 1,000-yard receiving season streak alive last year. Entering his second term, Jalen McMillan is in the early stages of development. Egbuka has to earn quarterback Baker Mayfield's trust as a reliable receiver. Advertisement "The Buccaneers promoted pass game coordinator Josh Grizzard to replace Coen. So, they won't go through a complete reset in the passing game. If healthy, Godwin will remain a key playmaker in what could be an aggressive aerial attack. In 2021 and 2022, he finished 15th and 19th, respectively, in fantasy scoring among wide receivers." Related: Buccaneers' Baker Mayfield Compared to 3-Time Super Bowl Champ Related: Buccaneers Just Miss Top 10 NFL Power Rankings Placement This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 28, 2025, where it first appeared.
