Latest news with #ChristianNolting
Yahoo
02-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump tariff risks put Asian stocks' strong July record to test
(Bloomberg) — A seasonal lift for Asian equities in July may be hard to come by this year as tariff and macroeconomic concerns dampen sentiment. Struggling Downtowns Are Looking to Lure New Crowds Sprawl Is Still Not the Answer California Exempts Building Projects From Environmental Law What Gothenburg Got Out of Congestion Pricing Markets are bracing for heightened volatility ahead of the July 9 deadline for countries to cut trade deals with the US. Uncertainty over the outcome of these negotiations poses a hurdle for regional shares to maintain an average return of 1.36% for July — the second-best performing month of the year — over the past decade. Investors are 'somewhat holding back on fresh allocations to emerging Asia,' said Christian Nolting, global chief investment officer at Deutsche Bank's Private Bank. (DB). 'While recent comments from high-level negotiators suggest constructive progress in ongoing talks with major Asian trading partners,' uncertainties remain high given that trade disputes during President Donald Trump's first term lasted one and a half years, he added. While the MSCI Asia Pacific Index has gained for three consecutive months through June, a potential return of 'Liberation Day' tariff rates could send shares plunging in a similar way they did in early April. Trump ruled out delaying the July 9 deadline for imposing higher levies on trading partners and renewed threats to hike tariffs on Japan. That saw Japanese shares leading losses in Asia early on Wednesday, with the Nikkei 225 (^N225) down about 1%. Even if trade deals materialize, some levels of tariffs are likely to stay. That would be a drag on the region's export-led economies. A number of central banks in Asia have lowered their growth outlooks for the year. Meanwhile, elevated US interest rates may curb the scope for Asian central banks to further lower borrowing costs. 'The third quarter looks to have lots of dangerous potholes with higher inflation and the prospect of slower growth,' said Gary Dugan, chief executive officer of the Global CIO Office. 'We are not so convinced the Federal Reserve will have sufficient reasons to cut rates at the pace the market prices.' To be sure, a milder-than-expected tariff outcome and more dovish signaling from the Federal Reserve may encourage flows into the region. Current positioning in Asian assets leaves room for upside, said Gary Tan, a portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments. The US central bank has refrained from cutting interest rates this year as it assesses the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation. The Trump administration though has been applying pressure to lower borrowing costs, and two Fed governors in recent days have said a cut could be appropriate as soon as July. The MSCI Asia Pacific gauge has risen 12% so far this year, outperforming the US, with shares in South Korea and Hong Kong seeing renewed interest. Still, some markets in Southeast Asia, where countries were hit with among the highest tariff rates, remain under pressure. 'We continue to expect choppy markets over the summer,' Nomura Holdings Inc. (NMR) strategists including Chetan Seth wrote in a recent note. 'We recommend investors focus on stock selection and on idiosyncratic themes that provide insulation from policy uncertainty and ones that offer better visibility.' —With assistance from Abhishek Vishnoi. (Adds latest Trump comments in the fifth paragraph.) SNAP Cuts in Big Tax Bill Will Hit a Lot of Trump Voters Too How to Steal a House America's Top Consumer-Sentiment Economist Is Worried China's Homegrown Jewelry Superstar Pistachios Are Everywhere Right Now, Not Just in Dubai Chocolate ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. By subscribing, you are agreeing to Yahoo's Terms and Privacy Policy Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Times
02-07-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Trump tariff risks put Asian stocks' strong July record to test
[SINGAPORE] A seasonal lift for Asian equities in July may be hard to come by this year as tariff and macroeconomic concerns dampen sentiment. Markets are bracing for heightened volatility ahead of the Jul 9 deadline for countries to cut trade deals with the US. Uncertainty over the outcome of these negotiations poses a hurdle for regional shares to maintain an average return of 1.36 per cent for July, the second-best performing month of the year, over the past decade. Investors are 'somewhat holding back on fresh allocations to emerging Asia', said Christian Nolting, global chief investment officer at Deutsche Bank's Private Bank. 'While recent comments from high-level negotiators suggest constructive progress in ongoing talks with major Asian trading partners,' uncertainties remain high given that trade disputes during US President Donald Trump's first term lasted one and a half years, he added. While the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index has gained for three consecutive months to June, a potential return of 'Liberation Day' tariff rates could send shares plunging in the similar way they did in early April. Trump ruled out delaying the Jul 9 deadline for imposing higher levies on trading partners and renewed threats to hike tariffs on Japan. That saw Japanese shares leading losses in Asia early on Wednesday, with the Nikkei 225 down about 1 per cent. Even if trade deals materialise, some levels of tariffs are likely to stay. That would be a drag on the region's export-led economies. A number of central banks in Asia have lowered their growth outlooks for the year. Meanwhile, elevated US interest rates may curb the scope for Asian central banks to further lower borrowing cost. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up 'The third quarter looks to have lots of dangerous potholes with higher inflation and the prospect of slower growth,' said Gary Dugan, chief executive officer of the Global CIO Office. 'We are not so convinced the Federal Reserve will have sufficient reasons to cut rates at the pace the market prices.' To be sure, a milder-than-expected tariff outcome and more dovish signalling from the Federal Reserve may encourage flows into the region. Current positioning in Asian assets leaves room for upside, said Gary Tan, a portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments. The US central bank has refrained from cutting interest rates this year as it assesses the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation. The Trump administration though has been applying pressure to lower borrowing costs, and two Fed governors in recent days have said a cut could be appropriate as soon as July. The MSCI Asia-Pacific gauge has risen 12 per cent so far this year, outperforming the US, with shares in South Korea and Hong Kong seeing renewed interest. Still, some markets in South-east Asia, where countries were hit with among the highest tariff rates, remain under pressure. 'We continue to expect choppy markets over the summer,' Nomura Holdings strategists, including Chetan Seth, wrote in a recent note. 'We recommend investors focus on stock selection and on idiosyncratic themes that provide insulation from policy uncertainty and ones that offer better visibility.' BLOOMBERG
Business Times
27-06-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Betting on local assets could pay off for Singapore investors: Deutsche Bank Private Bank CIO
[SINGAPORE] Investors in Singapore may want to allocate more funds to local assets, which appear resilient amid global economic uncertainty, said Deutsche Bank Private Bank global chief investment officer Christian Nolting on Friday (Jun 27). 'I think economically, (Singapore) is very nicely positioned', he said at a media briefing on the private bank's outlook for major economies and the various asset classes, as well as its recommended strategies for investors. Deutsche Bank's Singapore clients tend to hold 'very well diversified' portfolios with assets spread across global markets, but have limited investments locally, he noted. Although diversification is generally a positive strategy, investors in Singapore could consider increasing their allocation to domestic assets, he added. Singapore is less affected by US tariffs than other countries, facing only the baseline 10 per cent rate. This is 'very important' for a highly export-oriented economy, he said. He noted promising prospects for Singapore's real estate and stock markets. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Jason Liu, head of the CIO Office at Deutsche Bank Private Bank, described Singapore bank equities as 'very safe' assets in the current climate of global uncertainty, in that they offer a 'very good' dividend yield of over 5 percent. 'We have seen a lot of (capital) inflows since the beginning of the year,' he added. US dollar softens, equities may hold up Since the start of the year, there has been a considerable outflow of capital from the US – but this does not necessarily mean US assets will lose attractiveness, said Nolting. Given the euro's strengthening against the dollar, and turbulence in the yield of European treasuries, it is clear that there has been a flow of capital from the US into Europe, he said. A 'small amount of capital' is also moving to Asia, said Liu, noting the year-to-date appreciation of the Singapore dollar, Taiwan dollar and the Japanese yen relative to the US dollar. Nolting expects the capital outflow to continue, so the greenback could weaken a bit further over the next 12 months – but not collapse. 'I don't think there's a currency – at this point in time – which would replace the dollar,' he said. Furthermore, the expected weakness of the US dollar does not mean that other US assets will become less attractive, he added. The US continues to achieve stronger productivity growth than Europe, supporting its long-term investment appeal. The sheer size of the US market also allows it to absorb outflows while still delivering solid performance, he said. 'Even with some money flowing out, you can still have a nice performance, because it's so much larger.' To illustrate the disparity, Nolting noted that the total market capitalisation of Germany's DAX 40 blue-chip index is smaller than that of a single US tech giant such as Apple.
Yahoo
12-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Deutsche Bank: Equity Markets Remain Rational
The equity markets remain reasonable even during times of volatility and geopolitical uncertainty, although they are probably still underestimating the full impact of tariffs says Christian Nolting, Global CIO at Deutsche Bank Private Bank. Nolting spoke to Francine Lacqua on 'Bloomberg: The Pulse'. Sign in to access your portfolio
Bloomberg
12-06-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Deutsche Bank: Equity Markets Remain Rational
The equity markets remain reasonable even during times of volatility and geopolitical uncertainty, although they are probably still underestimating the full impact of tariffs says Christian Nolting, Global CIO at Deutsche Bank Private Bank. Nolting spoke to Francine Lacqua on 'Bloomberg: The Pulse'. (Source: Bloomberg)
