Latest news with #ChristopherWaller
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Charting the Global Economy: Consumer Spending Weakens in US
(Bloomberg) -- US consumers are growing tired, according to fresh data that showed cutbacks in spending on big-ticket goods and services, extending a first-quarter demand slowdown. Philadelphia Transit System Votes to Cut Service by 45%, Hike Fares US Renters Face Storm of Rising Costs Squeezed by Crowds, the Roads of Central Park Are Being Reimagined Sprawl Is Still Not the Answer Mapping the Architectural History of New York's Chinatown Inflation-adjusted consumer spending dropped last month by the most since January. Americans also stepped back from the housing market as new-home sales slid by the most in three years. At the same time, Federal Reserve policymakers indicated they're in little rush to lower interest rates. In the euro area, business activity barely grew amid lingering uncertainty related to US tariffs and geopolitics. Meantime, profits at Chinese industrial firms sagged as the country battles deflationary forces. Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy, markets and geopolitics: US Consumer spending declined in May by the most since the start of the year, indicating elevated uncertainty around the Trump administration's economic policies is increasingly weighing on the outlook for growth. The latest figures suggest sluggish household demand, especially for services, extended into May after the weakest quarter for personal consumption since the onset of the pandemic. A flurry of Federal Reserve officials this week made clear they'll need a few more months to gain confidence that tariff-driven price hikes won't raise inflation in a persistent way. Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman captured attention in the past week when they signaled they'd be open to lowering rates as soon as the Fed's July 29-30 meeting if inflation remains contained. New-home sales fell 13.7% in May, the most in almost three years, as rampant incentives from builders fell short of alleviating affordability constraints. The latest results show homebuilders are sitting on rising inventories amid mounting economic challenges, including mortgage rates stuck near 7%, higher materials costs due to tariffs and a slowing labor market. Europe German companies are the most upbeat about the economy in more than two years as an imminent boost to public spending outweighs concerns over US tariffs and wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. The euro area's private sector barely grew in June, remaining in limbo as erratic US trade policy and geopolitical conflicts leave companies in the dark on what's next. Surging grocery bills are threatening to slow the pace of the Bank of England's interest-rate cuts by raising the risk that inflation will stay elevated even as the UK economy shows signs of sputtering. The prices of staples including butter, beef and chocolate in May were up nearly 20% from a year earlier, contributing to the biggest annual jump in overall food prices since February 2024. Asia China's industrial firms saw their profits drop the most since October, illustrating weakness in an economy strained by higher US tariffs and lingering deflationary pressure. Industrial profits fell 9.1% in May from a year earlier. The deterioration bodes ill for business confidence and could make companies more reluctant to invest and hire. Apartment rents in Tokyo are rising at the fastest pace in 30 years in the latest sign for the Bank of Japan that the nation's inflation trend is spreading deeper through the economy. Rents in the capital climbed 1.3% from a year earlier in April and May for the largest gains since 1994, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Emerging Markets Mexico's central bank again cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point but it opened the door to smaller cuts going forward as policymakers worry the economy will continue to suffer headwinds after barely avoiding tipping into recession earlier this year. World In addition to Mexico's policy decision, central bankers in Paraguay, Morocco, Hungary, Thailand, Czech Republic, Guatemala, and Colombia all kept interest rates unchanged. --With assistance from Irina Anghel, Matthew Boesler, John Liu, Catarina Saraiva, Michael Sasso, Zoe Schneeweiss, Mark Schroers, Fran Wang, Alexander Weber and Erica Yokoyama. America's Top Consumer-Sentiment Economist Is Worried How to Steal a House Inside Gap's Last-Ditch, Tariff-Addled Turnaround Push Luxury Counterfeiters Keep Outsmarting the Makers of $10,000 Handbags Apple Test-Drives Big-Screen Movie Strategy With F1 ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Bloomberg
a day ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Fed's Waller Already Acting Like Shadow Chair: RenMac's Dutta
Neil Dutta, head of US economic research at Renaissance Macro, makes the case for Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller to be the next Fed Chair and says he's already making the argument for rate cuts and acting like a shadow chair. (Source: Bloomberg)
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Bond Traders Boost Bets US 10-Year Yield Will Dive Toward 4%
(Bloomberg) — Traders are ramping up options wagers that 10-year (^TNX) Treasury yields are poised to sink to the lowest since April, amid dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials and a backdrop of simmering Mideast tensions. Bezos Wedding Draws Protests, Soul-Searching Over Tourism in Venice US Renters Face Storm of Rising Costs US State Budget Wounds Intensify From Trump, DOGE Policy Shifts Commuters Are Caught in Johannesburg's Taxi Feuds as Transit Lags The focus of the bets, which have drawn at least $38 million in premiums across Friday and Monday, has been around August calls on US 10-year options. The positions hedge against a drop in 10-year Treasury yields to 4% in the coming weeks, from roughly 4.3% now. Such a tumble would bring them to the lowest since the market turmoil that followed President Donald Trump's April 2 announcement of unexpectedly steep tariffs on US trading partners. It would also mark a sharp reversal from peak levels above 4.6% seen in May, when mounting worries around government spending in the US and other major economies sent long-term yields soaring. A big impetus for the bullish hedges came from Fed officials, including Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, appearing to support an interest-rate cut as early as July. Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that patience on additional easing is still warranted in congressional testimony on Tuesday, but he said cuts would come 'sooner rather than later' if inflation pressures remain contained. Treasuries steadied on Wednesday ahead of Powell's second day of testifying before the Senate Banking Committee. Yields on two-year tenors traded at 3.79%, the lowest level in seven weeks. Traders have been building bets on additional rate cuts into the front end of the curve. Swaps are now pricing around four basis points of easing into the July Fed meeting, compared with near zero before Bowman spoke, and a combined 60 basis points over the remaining four gatherings this year, up from 45 basis points a week ago. A surprisingly weak reading on consumer confidence on Tuesday supported the options positions, pushing 10-year yields below 4.3% to the lowest since early May. The bulk of activity in the options bets was seen Friday and Monday, when yields tumbled before Trump's evening announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel following more than a week of conflict. Open interest, or the amount of new risk, has surged since Friday in the August 10-year call options. On Monday, one trade cost a premium of roughly $10 million for the 113.00 strike, which is equivalent to a yield of about 4%. Recent open interest data has shown the buying since Friday to be new risk, rather than covering existing positions. Here's a rundown of the latest positioning indicators across the rates market: In the cash market, JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s Treasury client survey for the week to June 23 showed outright long positions fell 4 percentage points, shifting into neutrals. The all-client survey now shows the smallest net long position in three weeks. In SOFR options across the Sep25, Dec25 and Mar26 tenors, there were some large positions formed around the 95.6875 strikes where both Sep25 and Dec25 puts proved popular. Flows over the week included large buying of the SFRU5 95.6875/95.625 1x2 put spread, the SFRU5 95.75/95.625 put spread and the SFRZ5 95.375/95.625 put spread. The 95.625 strike remains most popular across Sep25, Dec25 and Mar26 options, with a large amount of risk seen in the level via Sep25 puts and Dec25 puts. Other populated strikes include 95.75 and 95.875, where Sep25 puts are prominent. On Monday, there appeared to be a wave of position unwinds via sellers of multiple downside structures across Sep25 and Dec25 1-year mid-curve structures, following the dovish comments officials including the Fed's Bowman. Treasury options skew now favors calls across the strip, signaling traders are now paying a premium to hedge against a bigger bond rally versus a selloff, from the front-end out to the long-end of the curve. Long-bond skew is now favoring call premium for the first time since April. In 10-year options, demand over recent sessions has emerged for upside protection targeting a move in 10-year yields down to near 4% level via August call structures. Net duration long positions among asset managers continued to rebuild in Treasury futures, CFTC data through June 17 shows. Over the week, asset managers added to net long positioning across 2-year, 10-year and ultra 10-year note futures by a combined $14.5m/DV01. Hedge funds added to net short position in 10-year note futures by around $4.9m/DV01, while covered a combined $4.6m/DV01 in net short positioning across long-bond and ultra-long bond futures. —With assistance from Alice Atkins. (Updates market moves, adds context.) Inside Gap's Last-Ditch, Tariff-Addled Turnaround Push Luxury Counterfeiters Keep Outsmarting the Makers of $10,000 Handbags Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros Is Mark Cuban the Loudmouth Billionaire that Democrats Need for 2028? Robotaxi's Underwhelming Texas Rollout ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Business Insider
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Insider
Closing Bell Movers: FedEx slips 5% after results and guidance
In the opening hour of the evening session, U.S. equity futures are down marginally, with S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Industrials all off by 0.1%. In energy, WTI Crude Oil is up from Tuesday's lows of around $64, gaining 1.3% to $65.20 following a second consecutive week of a sizeable API petroleum inventories draw and some uncertainty as to the success of the missile strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. In precious metals, gold and silver are slightly firmer at $3,335 and $35.89 respectively. Confident Investing Starts Here: Easily unpack a company's performance with TipRanks' new KPI Data for smart investment decisions Receive undervalued, market resilient stocks right to your inbox with TipRanks' Smart Value Newsletter Tuesday's broad-based rally was led by Tech and Financial sectors on the S&P 500, while defensive Energy and Staples lagged. Coinbase was the best performing name on the index. More dovish sentiment from Fed Vice Chair Bowman and Fed governor Christopher Waller have also fueled speculation about a possible July cut, pressuring Treasury yields and goosing up risky assets. Check out this evening's top movers from around Wall Street, compiled by The Fly. HIGHER AFTER EARNINGS – Worthington (WOR) up 11.2% Blackberry (BB) up 6.5% AeroVironment (AVAV) up 0.2% ALSO HIGHER – DOWN AFTER EARNINGS – FedEx (FDX) down 5.0% ALSO LOWER –
Wall Street Journal
4 days ago
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
Fed's Powell: Many Paths Are Possible for Interest Rates
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell declined to endorse the view that tariffs will lead to only muted price pressures and the Fed shouldn't delay rate cuts much longer, a stance made most prominently by his colleague Christopher Waller in the past few weeks. Instead, Powell's answer, during Tuesday's testimony, effectively keeps the Fed's options wide open, neither ruling in nor out any possible policy changes. 'I think many paths are possible here. And certainly the one you mentioned is a possible one," he said on Capitol Hill.
