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Fibre2Fashion
2 days ago
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
Germany's economy shows signs of rebound as LEI rises 0.8% in May
The Conference Board (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for Germany increased by 0.8 per cent in May 2025 to 87.7, more than reversing a decline of 0.3 per cent in April. Over the six-month period from November 2024 to May 2025, the LEI for Germany grew by 0.6 per cent, a partial recovery from the 0.8 per cent contraction over the previous six-month period, from May to November 2024. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for Germany was unchanged in May 2025 at 103.6, after ticking down by 0.1 per cent in April. Over the six-month period between November 2024 and May 2025, the CEI for Germany experienced a slight 0.1 per cent increase, reversing the 0.1 per cent decline over the previous six-month period, The Conference Board said in a press release. 'In May, the LEI for Germany registered its strongest monthly increase in 5 years,' said Allen Li, associate economist at The Conference Board. 'Stock prices and consumer confidence, which pulled back in April, rebounded following easing trade tensions from the temporary pause on US tariffs. In addition, new orders for investment goods made a significant positive contribution, most likely supported by the announced fiscal stimulus plan. The LEI annual rate has improved continuously since the beginning of 2024, suggesting lessened headwinds to economic growth ahead. The Conference Board currently projects a mild recovery in Germany with real GDP reaching 0.5 per cent in 2025, after contracting slightly in the past two years.' Germany's Leading Economic Index rose by 0.8 per cent in May 2025 to 87.7, its strongest monthly gain in five years, signalling easing economic headwinds. The rebound was driven by improved stock prices, consumer confidence, and investment orders. The Coincident Economic Index remained flat. The Conference Board projects a mild recovery, with Germany's real GDP expected to grow by 0.5 per cent in 2025. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
Fibre2Fashion
01-07-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
China's leading index falls again in May, but recession risks ease
The Conference Board's (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China fell by 0.3 per cent in May 2025 to 148.9, marking its second consecutive monthly decline. The LEI dropped 1.2 per cent over the six-month period from November 2024 to May 2025, though this was a smaller contraction than the 1.6 per cent recorded in the preceding six months. The continued decline was attributed to weakening consumer expectations, a soft logistics prosperity index, and a drop in new export orders. China's Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 0.3 per cent in May 2025, signalling continued economic headwinds from weak consumer expectations, logistics, and export orders. However, recession risks have eased. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose 0.4 per cent. The Conference Board forecasts China's 2025 real GDP growth to remain resilient at 4.5 to 5 per cent. 'The China LEI decreased again in May . Much like previous months, the main drivers of the decline in the LEI were weaknesses in consumer expectations, the logistics prosperity index, and new export orders. Both the semi-annual and annual growth rates of the LEI remained negative, continuing to suggest challenges ahead,' said Malala Lin, economic research associate at The Conference Board. 'However, the 6-month growth rate has become less negative and no longer signalled recession risks since February 2025, despite the persisting weakness among the underlying components of the LEI.' 'Furthermore, it is expected that the de-escalation of the China-US tariffs tensions and the implemented monetary policies will help mitigate risks to growth going forward. Overall, The Conference Board currently forecasts annual real GDP growth to remain resilient, between 4.5 per cent to 5 per cent in 2025,' added Lin. In contrast, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, rose by 0.4 per cent in May to 152.8. This follows a sharp 0.8 per cent drop in April. The CEI grew 0.9 per cent between November 2024 and May 2025—substantially slower than the 3 per cent gain observed in the prior six-month period. Despite ongoing weakness in key sectors, The Conference Board maintains a cautiously optimistic forecast, projecting China's real GDP growth to remain resilient at between 4.5 and 5 per cent for 2025. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
Fibre2Fashion
27-06-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
India's LEI rises, CEI slumps in May amid mixed economic signals
India's economic outlook showed mixed signals in May 2025. The Leading Economic Index (LEI), which signals future economic activity, rose by 0.4 per cent to 160.5, following an upwardly revised 1.2 per cent increase in April, according to The Conference Board. Over the six-month period from November 2024 to May 2025, the LEI grew by 1.2 per cent—an improvement from the 0.2 per cent increase seen in the prior six months, as per the latest data from The Conference Board. India's LEI rose 0.4 per cent in May 2025, following a 1.2 per cent gain in April, indicating improving future economic prospects, according to The Conference Board. Over six months, the LEI grew 1.2 per cent. However, the CEI, reflecting current conditions, fell 5.7 per cent in May. India's GDP is expected to grow by around 6.3 per cent in 2025, supported by financial momentum. In contrast, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, fell sharply by 5.7 per cent in May to 147.6, more than reversing April's 5.3 per cent gain. The CEI contracted by 2.4 per cent over the latest six-month period, compared to a 0.6 per cent decline in the previous half-year, indicating ongoing weakness in real-time economic performance. 'The LEI for India increased in May, after being heavily revised upward in April . Financial variables drove the Index in May, with the largest positive contribution coming from a second month of rising stock prices. The merchandise export declined in May after surging in April,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Thanks to the two consecutive monthly gains in the leading index, its six-month growth moved higher into positive territory, implying that the growth tailwinds are likely to last in the second half of 2025. Therefore, and taking also into account the stronger than expected gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Q1 and the recent easing of monetary policy, The Conference Board forecasts that India's real GDP will grow at about 6.3 per cent in 2025, only slightly slower than in 2024.' Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
Fibre2Fashion
20-06-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
Germany's LEI slips in April, signalling economic headwinds
Germany's economic recovery momentum showed signs of strain in April 2025, as The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.2 per cent to 87.1, based on a 2016=100 reference level. The LEI, a predictive measure designed to anticipate turning points in the business cycle, also contracted by 0.2 per cent over the six-month period from October 2024 to April 2025—marking a slowdown compared to the 0.9 per cent decline in the preceding six months, The Conference Board said in a press release. In contrast, Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which tracks current economic activity, declined slightly by 0.1 per cent in April to 103.6 (2016=100), following a 0.3 per cent increase in March. However, on a six-month basis, the CEI edged up by 0.1 per cent—an improvement over the 0.4 per cent drop recorded between April and October 2024. Germany's economic outlook weakened in April 2025, with the Leading Economic Index (LEI) falling by 0.2 per cent to 87.1, indicating softening momentum. CEI also dipped 0.1 per cent to 103.6 but showed slight six-month improvement. While the LEI highlighted subdued future activity, the CEI points to modest current stability amid ongoing economic headwinds. The LEI's decline was influenced by weakness across several indicators, including new orders for investment goods and softening consumer confidence. Meanwhile, the CEI was supported by stable trends in industrial production and employment. Together, the LEI and CEI suggest that while the German economy continues to stabilise, significant headwinds remain. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
Fibre2Fashion
18-06-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
UK LEI declines further in April; CEI edges up: The Conference Board
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United Kingdom declined by 0.4 per cent in April 2025 to 74.9 (2016=100), following a similar drop in March. Over the six-month period from October 2024 to April 2025, the LEI contracted by 1.2 per cent, a steeper fall than the 1 per cent decline seen in the prior six months, TCB said in a release. 'The UK LEI continued to slide in April, remaining on a downward trend that started in 2022. This reflected the economic uncertainty in the month, as well as higher inflation and energy costs, and worries regarding escalating trade tensions. The 6-month growth rate of the UK LEI has cooled but remained above the recession threshold,' said Allen Li, associate economist at The Conference Board. Meanwhile, the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, rose by 0.2 per cent to 108 in April after remaining flat in March. The CEI grew by 1.1 per cent over the same six-month period, slightly slower than the 1.2 per cent increase registered between April and October 2024. 'Overall, the LEI reading suggests that, after a stronger than expected first quarter, economic growth in the United Kingdom will likely moderate in the remainder of 2025. The Conference Board expects UK GDP to grow by 1.4 per cent in 2025 after 1.1 per cent in 2024,' Li added. The UK's Leading Economic Index fell 0.4 per cent to 74.9 in April 2025, extending a downward trend since 2022 amid economic uncertainty, inflation, and trade tensions. The Coincident Economic Index rose 0.2 per cent to 108. The Conference Board expects UK GDP growth to ease to 1.4 per cent in 2025, following 1.1 per cent in 2024, after a stronger-than-expected first quarter. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (HU)
