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Time of India
4 days ago
- Politics
- Time of India
Purge, paranoia, and power: Inside China's black box - Is Xi Jinping losing control?
Beneath the surface, Xi is facing friction on multiple fronts. TL;DR: Xi Jinping still rules unchallenged, but his control now relies more on loyalty than performance. Top generals purged, including close allies, fueling questions about cracks in the military. Xi's visibility is down, and key commissions are less active - a shift or a retreat? rumours swirl, but most are speculation fueled by secrecy and wishful thinking. Public unrest and economic stress are rising, especially among youth and the middle class. No successor in sight - Xi looks set to rule indefinitely, despite mounting pressure. Driving the news In recent months, speculation about the stability of President Xi Jinping's rule has reached a fever pitch, fueled by high-profile purges in China's military, unusual absences from key international summits, and a steady churn of rumours about elite infighting. But is Xi really losing control-or is the rumour mill just a symptom of the opacity that has long defined Chinese politics? Rumours about the inner workings of the Communist Party are nothing new. As Karishma Vaswani of Bloomberg notes, 'Hearsay about the inner workings of the Politburo has a long tradition of being wholly inaccurate.' Speculation surged after Xi skipped the BRICS summit in Brazil - a first since taking office - and continued as over 20 senior military officers vanished or were removed from posts, including Admiral Miao Hua and Politburo member He Weidong. But experts warn: The truth is more complex than the rumours suggest. Why it matters Xi is the most powerful Chinese leader in decades. Some analysts call Xi 'president-for-life'. He controls the party, the state, and the military. If there's instability in his leadership, it would be the most significant political event in China since Mao - with ripple effects for the global economy, US-China relations, and regional stability in Asia. No clear successor: Xi's refusal to groom or name an heir creates a dangerous vacuum. A sudden health emergency could spark chaos at the top of the Communist Party. Opaque signals: Beijing watchers have turned back to 'Pekingology,' the Cold War-era practice of decoding state media, absences, and seating charts to assess political power - a sign of just how tightly controlled information has become. High stakes for Taiwan: The purges have also affected units reportedly tasked with preparing for a Taiwan invasion. That has caught the attention of US intelligence, which sees cracks in China's chain of command - or at least in its discipline. The big picture Despite the rumours, most analysts agree Xi remains firmly in charge. But his governing style appears to be shifting - subtly and strategically. 'He guides the world's second-biggest economy and its largest armed forces seemingly unchallenged,' the Economist wrote. 'Yet analysts now whisper that Mr Xi's governing style may be changing in subtle ways.' by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Get Your Personalized IQ Certificate Today Try Now Undo Delegation over domination: Xi is sending lieutenants - like Li Qiang, Cai Qi, and Ding Xuexiang - to manage critical commissions and international trips. In 2025, he skipped BRICS and sent Li instead. Decline in meetings: Some of Xi's signature commissions, including the one on economic reform, haven't publicly met since August 2024. Communiqués are shorter, suggesting fewer decisions. Purges as a strategy: Over 400,000 officials are under investigation since April 2024, according to the Economist. In the military, top brass close to Xi have been targeted - a sign he may be preemptively removing threats inside his own tightening of control, even within his base, points to a leader who's preparing to rule indefinitely - but from a more remote, less visible perch. The purges shouldn't necessarily indicate that Xi is safe, although he's certainly cemented power within his base. He will likely rule China until he 'goes to meet Marx,' as the saying goes. An Opinion in Bloomberg What they're saying Not everyone buys the coup chatter. Most seasoned observers argue Xi is not on the verge of collapse — but that doesn't mean everything is stable either. 'Despite the noise, no one has credibly explained how a leader who dominates every significant CCP organization could be toppled,' writes Michael Cunningham of the Lowy Institute. 'He will likely rule China until he 'goes to meet Marx,' as the saying goes,' Asia Society's Center for China Analysis wrote in a report. 'At every stage, he's defied convention to solidify his grip.' In their twilight years, both Mao and Deng Xiaoping fragmented authority to ensure that subordinates served as counterweights to prevent any one gaining too much influence. They became oracle-like, pontificating on ideology from behind a curtain. Over time Mr Xi may come to shape such a system—one where ultimate power remains his, even in absentia. An article in the Economist Still, challenges are mounting: Retired Party elders: Like Wen Jiabao and Li Ruihuan have criticized Xi's economic policies and mishandling of US relations, according to Radio Free Asia. While they lack direct power, their discontent underscores elite unease. Red aristocrats' or princelings, including those in exile, are reportedly sharing kompromat with foreign intelligence agencies - a risky but potentially destabilizing factor. Middle-class anger is rising amid a stagnant economy, rising unemployment, and censorship over local scandals like the student suicide in Shaanxi Province that led to violent protests. PLA grumbling: While a military coup remains highly unlikely, the recent sidelining of high-ranking officers, many with ties to Xi from his Fujian days, suggests serious internal friction. Even the PLA Daily - the military's official mouthpiece - recently promoted 'collective leadership,' a not-so-subtle rebuke of Xi's longstanding 'one-man rule' mantra. Between the lines The growing perception that Xi may be centralizing too much power - even for an autocrat - could erode internal loyalty over time. 'Those chosen for their loyalty may lack experience, shy away from delivering bad news, or see opportunities for graft,' the Economist warned. Xi himself seemed to acknowledge this when he told the Politburo, 'The string of self-revolution must be tightened even further.' There is little evidence Xi has begun preparing for succession. That's a red flag for analysts who recall how leadership vacuums in China have historically led to chaos - from Lin Biao's plane crash in 1971 to post-Deng power struggles. Instead, Xi appears to be reducing personal exposure while ensuring his ideological agenda is institutionalized through rules, written directives, and tightly controlled personnel decisions. Some observers suggest this is a strategy for long-term rule: less presence, more permanence. What's next The clearest signs of real trouble for Xi would be overt - not rumours. 'If some of Xi's closest allies - Cai Qi or Ding Xuexiang - are targeted, that will be a more likely sign of trouble,' notes * Institute's* Cunningham. Right now, purged officials like He Weidong, though powerful, are not considered part of Xi's innermost circle. Their fall suggests a shakeup - not a power struggle. As Asia Society notes, Xi's refusal to name a successor is no accident. Installing one would weaken his grip and create a rival power center. Naming no one ensures everyone remains beholden to him - but also makes China's future deeply uncertain. And that uncertainty has consequences: For the economy: Xi's mix of state-led stimulus and repression of private enterprise has underperformed. Even EV giants like BYD and SAIC are over-leveraged. For foreign relations: A softer tone with Washington, especially ahead of President Donald Trump's inauguration, may reflect desperation rather than détente. For stability: As purges continue and confidence erodes, even within the elite, the line between strength and fear starts to blur. The bottom line: So, is Xi Jinping losing control? Not exactly. But he is entering a phase where maintaining control requires more energy, more surveillance, more loyalty tests-and fewer missteps. He still commands the Party, the military, and the machinery of the state. But cracks are showing. Not enough to break him, yet-but enough to make the question impossible to ignore. The emperor still rules. But he's looking over his shoulder.
The National
6 days ago
- Politics
- The National
Zelenskyy can't risk cracks in trust as war still rages
His Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin are the most obvious, having quite literally set out to target Zelenskyy in the immediate wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. More recently, it has been the turn of US president Donald Trump and his Maga cohorts, with Trump earlier this year calling Zelenskyy a 'dictator', before this month making a now familiar political pivot and sending more weapons to Ukraine. It's no secret that not everyone in Ukraine is a fan of Zelenskyy. But visit the country as I have numerous times since the start of the war and you will rarely hear open criticism of the Ukrainian president, who without doubt has proved the most dogged and seemingly unflappable wartime leader. READ MORE: Repurposed Cold War-era building opens as state-of-the-art rocket test facility It's not that ordinary Ukrainians are afraid to criticise him as Zelenskyy's detractors have suggested. For if there's one thing Ukrainians certainly cannot be accused of, it's fear in the face of any authoritarianism, as their protests during the 2013-14 EuroMaidan Revolution and subsequent standing up to Russia's invasion have shown. To put this another way, most Ukrainians know exactly who poses the real threat to their country right now. Tackling that threat head-on by stopping Putin's advancing hordes and Ukraine from being obliterated by missile and drone strikes has been the main preoccupation of the country's citizens. Earlier this week though, Zelenskyy put that public support to the test like never before, when he took the very controversial step of moving to take control of Ukraine's anti-corruption bodies – the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (Nabu) and Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (Sapo). No sooner had parliament passed the contentious draft bill No 12414, than Zelenskyy signed it into law, rejecting calls for him to use his presidential veto. To say that the move surprised and dismayed some would be an understatement. For the first time since 2022, some Ukrainians took to the streets in cities like Kyiv, Lviv and Dnipro, while civil society activists and some of Ukraine's European partners and allies expressed their deep concern. Writing on social media even before Zelenskyy had signed off on the bill, the European Union (EU) enlargement commissioner, Marta Kos, said it would have a negative impact on Ukraine's membership negotiations. 'Independent bodies like Nabu and Sapo are essential for Ukraine's EU path,' she wrote. For a long time now, corruption and judicial independence have been two of Brussels' biggest concerns over Ukraine's candidacy to join the EU, which is the country's biggest financial supporter. Under the new law, the prosecutor general, Ruslan Kravchenko, who is seen by many as a Zelenskyy loyalist, will now oversee anti-corruption investigations making it easier, say critics, for the government to control which cases are pursued. They warn too that the move marks a complete U-turn on the system that was set up with the exact purpose of being independent and will make political interference that much easier. In its editorial, the Kyiv Independent newspaper pulled no punches in its criticism, running the headline: 'Zelenskyy just betrayed Ukraine's democracy – and everyone fighting for it.' READ MORE: State pension age rises target the north of the UK disproportionately The newspaper also asked the important question as to why do it now, before in part answering the same question saying that 'anti-corruption agencies have been a nuisance for the political elite – as they should be'. The newspaper also reminded readers that Ukraine's anti-corruption infrastructure was set up in the years following the EuroMaidan Revolution. Out of that turmoil it was seen as one of the positives of the movement that overthrew the corrupt pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych, who fled to Moscow by helicopter in 2014 after months of street protests. One Ukrainian government official according to The Economist magazine even suggested that the speed and scale of the latest bill passing into law was reminiscent of the infamous protest-banning laws of January 16, 2014, that were one of the last acts of the Yanukovych government. There's no question that the optics of Zelenskyy's move make for a precarious moment. To start with, it has happened at the worst possible time given the recent shift in US policy in Ukraine's favour. Then there is the inescapable fact that it makes a total gift of a critical narrative to bad faith actors – and we're not just talking about Moscow here. It was interesting to note that the American Republican far-right congresswoman, conspiracy theorist and all-round loose cannon, Marjorie Taylor Greene, went on Twitter/X claiming that footage of the protest in Ukraine's cities were in fact about Zelenskyy 'refusing to make a peace deal' or 'ending the war.' Total lie as it was, that's not the kind of mischief-making message Zelenskyy needs at this or any other moment coming out of Washington's corridors of power – albeit from such a well-known Maga mouthpiece. Not only were Greene's claims a total fabrication, they fly in the face of evidence that following Russia's recent escalation of air strikes, Ukrainian resolve to resist has also intensified. For his part, Zelenskyy claims that his move to weaken the anti-corruption watchdogs was intended to purge Russian interference, infiltrators and spies. 'The anti-corruption infrastructure will operate. But only without Russian influences – everything must be cleansed of that,' Zelenskyy insisted. READ MORE: Labour panned for foreign aid cuts as women and children to be hit hardest Some agree with Zelenskyy in that given the absence of an audit in Nabu, it made it vulnerable to penetration by Russian intelligence. Among those who share such a view is Ukrainian political scientist Taras Zahorodnii. 'This bill is a step towards finally taking control of a structure that for some reason began to turn into a branch of the FSB,' Zahorodnii told the Ukrainian news agency UNN, referring to the Russian security service. There's no doubt that in wartime, leaders often have to make decisions that put the country's security first, even at the expense of some civil liberties. History is replete with examples. But for now, Zelenskyy's decision appears to be widely regarded as not one of his better ones. Internal divisions in Ukraine of course would suit Putin and the Kremlin to a tee. For exactly that reason the words of Ukraine's very canny, head of military intelligence Kyrylo Budanov have a particular resonance at this dangerous moment. 'Ukrainian history has taught us that a nation loses if it is torn apart by internal contradictions,' noted Budanov in the wake of the past few days events. He's right, but whether this will actually wash with many Ukrainians only the coming days will tell.
Time of India
7 days ago
- General
- Time of India
MiG-21's final flight may put private defence firms on frontline amid HAL's drag
Remember Rang De Basanti? The 2006 film that shook a generation awake with its raw, patriotic fury. A group of Delhi college students, playing freedom fighters in a documentary, are jolted into action after their friend, a MiG-21 pilot, dies in a crash. That fictional pilot, Flight Lt. Ajay Rathod, became a symbol for a very real crisis playing out in India's skies. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Please select course: Select a Course Category Artificial Intelligence Leadership Design Thinking Cybersecurity Others Technology PGDM CXO Data Science Finance Digital Marketing MBA Product Management Management Degree healthcare Public Policy Healthcare others Data Science Operations Management MCA Data Analytics Project Management Skills you'll gain: Duration: 7 Months S P Jain Institute of Management and Research CERT-SPJIMR Exec Cert Prog in AI for Biz India Starts on undefined Get Details That crisis didn't end with the credits. In May 2023, seventeen years after the film's release, a MiG-21 crashed in Hanumangarh, Rajasthan. The pilot ejected in time, but the jet ploughed into a house, killing three civilians on the ground. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 20 Pieces of Clothing Older Women should Avoid Learn More It was yet another grim reminder that what was seen as a cinematic tragedy had long become a recurring headline. Now, the 'flying coffin,' as the MiG-21 came to be known, is finally nearing the end of its long, turbulent service. The Indian Air Force 's No. 23 Squadron is set to phase out its remaining Bisons by September 19. Live Events After six decades in the air, and far too many avoidable losses, the last of these Cold War-era fighters will make their final flight in a farewell ceremony at Chandigarh, according to Economic Times. This isn't just the retirement of an aircraft. It marks the end of a chapter defined by aging platforms, stalled defence modernisation, and a persistent gap between ambition and action. A legacy writ large, and largely troubled Inducted in 1963, the MiG-21 was India's first supersonic fighter jet, and it changed everything. It brought the Indian Air Force into the jet age and went on to serve in every major conflict: the 1965 and 1971 wars with Pakistan, the Kargil conflict in 1999, and even the Balakot airstrikes in 2019. As per ET, the MiG-21 has been a part of every major Indian military engagement. Over 850 were acquired, India's largest-ever fighter fleet, with nearly 600 assembled domestically by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL). Aviation expert Angad Singh summed it up as: 'No other fighter has been associated with the IAF for as long as the MiG-21, an incredible two-thirds of the IAF's 93-year history is inextricably linked to this jet.' For many in uniform and beyond, it's an emotional farewell to a legend of Indian skies. But behind that combat record is a darker legacy. Nicknamed the 'Flying Coffin,' the MiG-21 became notorious for its crash record. Dozens of pilots lost their lives. The jet stayed in service long after it should've been retired, largely because no replacements were available. The original plan was to phase out the MiG-21s and replace them with the indigenous Tejas Mk-1A. But delays, both in manufacturing and engine supply, repeatedly pushed that schedule back. Tejas is here… If it ever arrives In February 2021, the Ministry of Defence signed a Rs 48,000 crore contract with HAL for 83 Tejas Mk-1A jets. The first delivery was promised by March 2024. That date came and went with not a single jet delivered. Air Chief Marshal A.P. Singh, at the Confederation of Indian Industry's Annual Business Summit in 2025, didn't mince words: 'Timeline is a big issue.' It was his second public warning, earlier this year, he urged the defence industry 'not to make promises it cannot deliver on time.' HAL pointed to engine delays from GE Aerospace as the main bottleneck. There's merit to that. According to India Today, the first F404-IN20 engine under a $716 million contract for 99 engines was delivered only in March 2025, nearly two years late. Shawn Warren, GE Aerospace's GM for Combat & Trainer Engines, called it a 'milestone' and said it would 'ensure a strong future for India's military.' But for HAL, that was just the start of a frantic race to meet deadlines. As of mid-2025, HAL had received only one engine. Twelve more are expected by March 2026. HAL Chairman Dr. D.K. Sunil confirmed to PTI Videos that six jets are ready, but can't fly without engines. 'They were to deliver the engines in 2023. Till date, we have got only one engine,' he said, adding that deliveries can begin 'by this fiscal,' if the remaining engines arrive. HAL has since restructured its Bengaluru facility, added a parallel assembly line, and says it can deliver 16 jets a year, if the supply chain holds steady. The target is to complete all 83 by 2028, followed by a pending Rs 67,000 crore order for 97 more Mk-1As, taking the total to 180 aircraft by 2031. But all of this still hinges on fixing a fragile supply chain and overcoming HAL's delivery record. The private push Recognising the urgency, the Ministry of Defence set up a five-member Defence Empowerment Committee led by Defence Secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh. The panel proposed short-, medium- and long-term fixes, including roping in private players to accelerate the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas production chain. That's now underway. As per government reports, Alpha Tocol Engineering delivered the first rear fuselage of the Tejas Mk-1A to HAL in March. VEM Technologies followed with the centre fuselage in May, and L&T supplied wing assemblies in July. Other firms are contributing too: Tata Advanced Systems is supplying composite parts, Dynamatic Technologies makes the front fuselage, Lakshmi Machine Works handles air intakes, and Amphenol provides loom assemblies. HAL has opened three production lines, including one in Nashik, and aims to ramp up to 30 aircraft annually by 2026–27. This shortfall is compounded by the fact that the IAF retired its MiG-27s in 2019 and is now phasing out Jaguars, with full withdrawal expected by 2035–2040. Every delay in delivering the indigenously developed Tejas Mk-1A, meant to replace those ageing fleets, only widens the gap. The AMCA project: In March 2023, the Cabinet Committee on Security cleared full-scale engineering development of the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), India's first fifth-generation stealth fighter. But this time, HAL won't have a monopoly on execution. As Economic Times reported, the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA), under DRDO, will float an expression of interest (EoI) inviting bids for the programme. HAL can go solo or team up with private or foreign players. Private firms, for the first time, can also bid independently, form consortiums, or partner with foreign original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), as long as they comply with Indian rules. The government wants speed, scale, and accountability, and is making it clear HAL no longer holds exclusive rights to marquee fighter jet programmes. The Rs 15,000 crore allocation will fund five flying prototypes, a structural test specimen, and extensive flight-testing. The IAF is aiming for seven squadrons, or around 126 jets, by the early 2040s. The first two squadrons will be powered by GE-F414 engines. HAL and General Electric are in talks to co-produce these in India under a $1.5 billion deal, with 80% technology transfer on the table. Still, the first AMCA squadron won't be ready before 2035. And until then, the IAF is retiring jets faster than it can replace them. Private defence is growing, and drones are leading Over the last few years, India's private defence players have moved from the sidelines to the centre of the ecosystem. Companies like Tata Advanced Systems, L&T, Paras Defence, Alpha Design, and Bharat Forge aren't just suppliers anymore, they're partners. Tata is building the C-295 military transport aircraft in Gujarat in collaboration with Airbus Spain. Alpha Design co-developed the SkyStriker loitering munition and supplies parts for tanks and satellites. L&T builds warships, radars and weapon platforms, and booked Rs 13,000 crore in orders in FY25. Bharat Forge is expanding in artillery and missiles. Government initiatives like iDEX and SRIJAN have fuelled this shift. Defence exports hit Rs 24,000 crore in FY25, and the government wants to double that by 2029. Adani Defence, Paras Defence, ideaForge, and IG Drones are ramping up too. Adani has opened new ammunition and missile plants in Uttar Pradesh. ideaForge's SWITCH and NETRA V2 are already in active use. Solar Industries is building the Nagastra-1 tactical drone. NewSpace Research is developing swarming drone tech. In July 2025, the IAF's Unmanned Force Plan outlined the need for 30–50 combat UAVs. The private sector is delivering faster than anyone expected. A turning point in the sky The MiG-21's retirement isn't just the end of an aircraft, it's a wake-up call. Tejas is meant to fill the gap, but delays, especially on the engine front, have slowed induction. HAL says it's ready to deliver. Private firms are stepping in. But squadron strength continues to fall. Meanwhile, the AMCA program is the first real test of whether private participation can speed up a complex fighter program. The signs are promising, but timelines are tight. India now has the tech, the talent, and the policy. The only question is whether the system can move fast enough, before the skies are left too wide open to defend.
News18
19-07-2025
- News18
Uttarakhand To Reopen Nanda Devi For Expeditions After More Than Four Decades
Last Updated: The Indian Mountaineering Foundation, with Uttarakhand's Tourism and Forest Departments, is leading the plan, but it's still pending official approval from the state. Nanda Devi, India's second-highest peak after Mount Kanchenjunga, is finally reopening its routes to climbers. After being off-limits for over four decades, this majestic peak is being reopened under a new tourism initiative by the Uttarakhand government. Why Was The Nanda Devi Closed? Nanda Devi was closed to climbers in 1983 due to environmental concerns and the aftermath of a Cold War-era nuclear surveillance operation that had gone awry. Since then, the peak has remained inaccessible, wrapped in mystery and reverence. Now, with renewed interest in mountaineering and growing enthusiasm among trekkers, the government is working toward making it climbable once more. Tourism-Driven Revival This initiative is being spearheaded by the Indian Mountaineering Foundation (IMF) in collaboration with the Uttarakhand Tourism and Forest Departments. As part of this joint initiative, the IMF proposed reopening Nanda Devi for controlled expeditions. Though the state's tourism department has yet to officially greenlight the plan, the proposal signals a strong intent to boost eco-tourism in the region. In addition to Nanda Devi, other peaks – including Baljuri, Laspadhura, and Bhanolti in Bageshwar district, as well as Rudragaira in Uttarkashi – are also being considered for reopening. In India, the spiritual dimension of travel holds deep meaning, and the Nanda Devi region is no exception. For locals and pilgrims, this is not just another peak – it's sacred terrain. Indulge Express quoted one spokesperson who said, 'The Nanda Raj Jat yatra, held every 12 years, draws pilgrims nationwide to the Himalayas. It's a profound spiritual journey, underscoring Nanda Devi's immense religious significance for millions." He went on to say, 'The yatra is more than a trek; it's a sacred experience that showcases the region's rich cultural heritage." The reopening of Nanda Devi has sparked excitement across the mountaineering community, but it also raises a crucial question: can tourism be balanced with conservation? Preserving the fragile Himalayan ecosystem while allowing access to climbers will be a test of thoughtful planning and environmental responsibility. view comments First Published: July 19, 2025, 09:11 IST Disclaimer: Comments reflect users' views, not News18's. Please keep discussions respectful and constructive. Abusive, defamatory, or illegal comments will be removed. News18 may disable any comment at its discretion. By posting, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
News18
17-07-2025
- Politics
- News18
NATO Warns India, Brazil, China: Align With West or Face Sanctions
NATO Warns India, Brazil, China: Align With West or Face Sanctions Last Updated: July 16, 2025, 14:54 IST Breaking News Videos NATO warns India, Brazil, China: support Russia and face sanctions—raising fears of a new Cold War-era global power divide. homevideos NATO Warns India, Brazil, China: Align With West or Face Sanctions CNN name, logo and all associated elements ® and © 2024 Cable News Network LP, LLLP. A Time Warner Company. All rights reserved. CNN and the CNN logo are registered marks of Cable News Network, LP LLLP, displayed with permission. Use of the CNN name and/or logo on or as part of does not derogate from the intellectual property rights of Cable News Network in respect of them. © Copyright Network18 Media and Investments Ltd 2024. All rights reserved.
