Latest news with #ComstockResources
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Alpha From Ashes: ‘Big Loser' Comstock Resources (CRK) is Flashing a Statistically Significant Reversal Signal
You've all heard the aphorism of buy low and sell high. But have you ever noticed that hardly anyone provides a tangible blueprint for how to actually find these hidden gems? We're going to change that right now. More News from Barchart NVDA Broken Wing Butterfly Trade Targets A Profit Zone Between 150 and 160 Tariff Deals Spark Unusual Options Trading in Carrier Global Corp Stock Low IV Alert: Stocks that Could be Ready to Pop Our exclusive Barchart Brief newsletter is your FREE midday guide to what's moving stocks, sectors, and investor sentiment - delivered right when you need the info most. Subscribe today! One of the many Barchart screeners that's particularly helpful for bargain-hunting speculators is the one-day percentage change decline list. As the name implies, it lists out the biggest losers on the day. Usually, people should avoid attempting to catch falling knives. When a publicly traded security loses a significant amount of value in a single session, there's almost always a reason for it — and not a good one. With that warning out of the way, I'm going to make an exception for Comstock Resources (CRK). An independent energy company, Comstock is engaged in the acquisition, development, production and exploration of oil and natural gas properties. Per its public profile, the enterprise's hydrocarbon reserve base is entirely concentrated in the Gulf of Mexico, Southeast Texas and East Texas/North Louisiana regions. Fundamentally, CRK stock would seem to be an intriguing idea, especially under the Trump administration. However, shareholders would have different thoughts for right now. On Wednesday, CRK slipped almost 4%. In the past five sessions, the security dropped more than 11%. To be sure, the year-to-date performance stands at nearly 13%, making it a very solid name relative to the benchmark S&P 500 index. So, what gives? It's difficult to say, although Barchart content partner Zacks reported a spike in implied volatility due to the purchase of a $3 put that expired last week on July 18. Other than that, the news cycle seems dry. Interestingly, though, the company is scheduled to release its earnings results after the closing bell on July 30. A better-than-expected print or guidance may help lift CRK stock from its funk — and its statistical framework is pointing to exactly that. Using Objective Truth to Decipher CRK Stock Scientists and theologians often spar on the existence of objective truth in the universe. It's a contentious topic, one that I'm obviously not going to explore here. However, I do find the concept of truth fascinating, in part because it's a rare — possibly near-extinct — commodity in the financial publication realm. It's here that many people may have a knee-jerk reaction. Hey, what a minute, CRK stock closed at $20.55 on the midweek session and is priced at 4.91-times trailing-12-month (TTM) sales…that's truth! No, I'm afraid those are facts. And what is typipcally considered 'analysis' in the financial realm comes down to heuristics formulated from those facts. Sorry for the red pill but once you see it, you can't unsee it. Think about all the times we've heard experts talk about a stock being offered at a 'good price' or a company stumbling on 'bad earnings.' But what do those labels even mean? There's no objective mechanism to determine that since scalar metrics like share price or earnings are unbounded and therefore undefinable. The only objective truth? At the end of the day, the market is either a net buyer or net seller. Consider what has been happening in the trailing two months. CRK stock has printed (including the current week) four up weeks and six down weeks, with an overall negative trajectory across the 10-week period. This sequence can be abbreviated as 4-6-D. It may seem ridiculous to compress the magnitude dynamism of CRK stock into a simple binary code. But consider what's happening here. In the past 10 weeks, the market has been a net buyer four times and a net seller six times. This is a falsifiable sequence. When we stack this pattern against others across rolling 10-week intervals (going back to January 2019), we get the following demand profile for CRK stock: L10 Category Sample Size Up Probability Baseline Probability Median Return if Up 2-8-D 8 75.00% 50.58% 4.09% 3-7-D 28 46.43% 50.58% 3.24% 3-7-U 5 40.00% 50.58% 4.28% 4-6-D 46 69.57% 50.58% 4.62% 4-6-U 16 62.50% 50.58% 3.68% 5-5-D 51 50.98% 50.58% 7.23% 5-5-U 45 48.89% 50.58% 7.17% 5-5-F 1 100.00% 50.58% 0.62% 6-4-D 13 61.54% 50.58% 8.57% 6-4-U 71 39.44% 50.58% 3.92% 7-3-U 33 33.33% 50.58% 9.09% 8-2-U 1 0.00% 50.58% N/A Interestingly, the 4-6-D sequence has flashed 46 times. In 69.57% of cases, the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 4.62%. Should the bulls maintain control for a second week, the median forecasted performance is an additional 3.63%. That may mean that CRK stock is on course to hit around $22.28. As a baseline, the chance that a long position in CRK will rise on any given week is only 50.44%. This is essentially our null hypothesis, our expected performance assuming no mispricing. The beauty of the 4-6-D signal is that the odds now dramatically favor the bulls. A Rationally Aggressive Trade Based on the market intelligence above, the 21/22 bull call spread expiring Aug. 15 is awfully intriguing. This transaction involves buying the $21 call and simultaneously selling the $22 call, for a net debit paid of $50. Should CRK stock rise through the short strike price ($22) at expiration, the maximum reward is also $50, a 100% payout. With earnings coming up next week, though, super-aggressive speculators may consider ramping up the short strike price to $23. In that case, the 21/23 bull spread would offer the highest payout at almost 167%. Some might wonder at this point about the reliability of the 4-6-D sequence. Running a one-tailed binominal test reveals a p-value of 0.0067, translating to a 99.33% confidence level that the signal is 'intentional' rather than random. Scientifically, this metric meets the threshold of statistical significance. This doesn't guarantee a successful outcome, to be clear. However, it lets you know that there's something about this sequence that extends well beyond white noise — and that's how we can extract alpha from heavily cheapened stocks. On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. 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Yahoo
10-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Here is Why Comstock Resources (CRK) Slumped This Week
The share price of Comstock Resources, Inc. (NYSE:CRK) fell by 16.44% between June 30 and July 8, 2025, putting it among the Energy Stocks that Lost the Most This Week. A drilling rig surrounded by reserves of oil and natural gas. Comstock Resources, Inc. (NYSE:CRK) is a leading independent natural gas producer with operations focused on the development of the Haynesville shale in North Louisiana and East Texas. Comstock Resources, Inc. (NYSE:CRK) skyrocketed to a 10-year high last month after the analysts at Wolfe Research upgraded the stock from 'Peer Perform' to 'Outperform' and raised its price target to $34. So the recent downturn could be due to investors booking their profits following an impressive rally. Moreover, Comstock Resources, Inc. (NYSE:CRK) came under pressure following a decline in the price of natural gas, with US natural gas futures dropping by over 22% since June 19 due to rising supply and strong storage levels. Despite the downturn, the share price of Comstock Resources, Inc. (NYSE:CRK) has surged by more than 118% over the last year. While we acknowledge the potential of CRK as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the . READ NEXT: 10 Best Nuclear Energy Stocks to Buy Right Now and The 5 Energy Stocks Billionaires are Quietly Piling Into Disclosure: None. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Forbes
08-07-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Jerry Jones & family
Jerry Jones, co-captain of the University of Arkansas 1964 national championship team, has long had football in his blood. His most valuable holding is the Dallas Cowboys, which he bought for $150 million in 1989. The team is currently valued at roughly $10 billion. Jones made a name for himself as an oil wildcatter, making his first million in oil investments in the 1970s. He still invests in drilling opportunities as well as retail and residential real estate projects in Dallas. After a 2018 deal, Jones became the controlling shareholder in Comstock Resources, a publicly traded Texas oil and gas company. An avid art collector, Jones owns Norman Rockwell's "Coin Toss" as well as paintings by Picasso, Renoir and Matisse among others. Wealth History HOVER TO REVEAL NET WORTH BY YEAR Personal Stats Age 82 Source of Wealth Dallas Cowboys, Self Made Self-Made Score 8 Philanthropy Score 1 Residence Dallas, Texas Citizenship United States Marital Status Married Children 3 Education Bachelor of Arts/Science, University of Arkansas; Master of Arts, University of Arkansas Did you know Jones jumped into the workforce at age 9 as a customer greeter at his parent's grocery store, named Pat's Supermarket. Jones' Dallas Cowboys have topped Forbes' list of most valuable NFL teams since 2018. In Their Own Words When I look back on my life, I overpaid for my big successes every time. And when I tried to get a bargain, get it a little cheaper or get a better deal on it, I ended up usually either getting it and not happy I got it. Or missing it. Jerry Jones & family
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Comstock Resources, Inc. (CRK): A Bull Case Theory
We came across a bullish thesis on Comstock Resources, Inc. (CRK) on Deep Value Capital's Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls' thesis on CRK. Comstock Resources, Inc. (CRK)'s share was trading at $23.94 as of 11th June. CRK's trailing and forward P/E were 48.73 and 34.84 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. Aerial view of an oil and gas rig in the Permian Basin. Comstock Resources (CRK), a pure-play natural gas producer based in Texas, is quietly positioned at the heart of a transformative energy shift. As demand for natural gas surges—driven by data center expansion, rising LNG exports, and increasingly power-hungry infrastructure—Comstock stands out as America's lowest-cost gas producer, with strategic operations in the high-output Haynesville shale basin. The company operates over 2,400 wells across more than 820,000 net acres and produces approximately 1,350 MMcf/day of dry gas. Comstock's recent expansion into the deeper, more productive Western Haynesville zone further strengthens its long-term production profile. What differentiates Comstock is its disciplined, singular focus on low-cost gas extraction, without the distraction of midstream or refining assets. Led by Jay Allison since 1988, the company has refined its cost efficiency into a durable competitive advantage—staying profitable at low prices, thriving in upcycles, and avoiding overreliance on hedging. Natural gas prices have already rebounded sharply from a February 2024 bottom, and the setup through 2027 appears exceptionally favorable. With a lean cost structure and proximity to LNG terminals, Comstock is well-placed to capitalize on this multi-year demand tailwind. The market, however, has yet to fully reflect this potential, offering a compelling valuation case. Even after its recent run, the stock could double by 2027, implying a ~31% CAGR. If gas prices continue to strengthen, Comstock's pure-play model and operational leverage could trigger a major revaluation. In short, CRK is a high-conviction bet on the future of natural gas, built for both resilience and upside. Recently, we covered a on Advance Auto Parts (AAP) by the same author, which framed the stock as a classic turnaround opportunity under new CEO Shane O'Kelly. The thesis emphasized margin recovery, a pivot toward higher-margin professional customers, and potential for a 176% share price appreciation by 2027. A parallel case on Comstock Resources (CRK) similarly focuses on operational discipline and a favorable macro setup—this time in natural gas. Both AAP and CRK are framed as deep value opportunities, relying on strategic execution and macro tailwinds to drive significant rerating over a multi-year horizon. Comstock Resources, Inc. (CRK) is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 20 hedge fund portfolios held CRK at the end of the first quarter which was 18 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of CRK as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: 8 Best Wide Moat Stocks to Buy Now and 30 Most Important AI Stocks According to BlackRock. Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.
Yahoo
21-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Here is Why Comstock Resources (CRK) Skyrocketed This Week
The share price of Comstock Resources, Inc. (NYSE:CRK) surged by 28.4% between June 11 and June 18, 2025, putting it among the Energy Stocks that Gained the Most This Week. A drilling rig surrounded by reserves of oil and natural gas. Comstock Resources, Inc. (NYSE:CRK), a leading independent natural gas producer with operations focused on the development of the Haynesville shale in North Louisiana and East Texas. Comstock Resources, Inc. (NYSE:CRK) received a massive boost this week after the analysts at Wolfe Research upgraded the stock from 'Peer Perform' to 'Outperform' and raised its price target to $34. The positive outlook comes as a result of a shift in the company's investment focus from distributable cash flow to a result-based valuation, supported by reduced risks in the company's backlogs due to its successful well tests. Moreover, Comstock Resources, Inc. (NYSE:CRK) has emerged as a leader in the Western Haynesville play, where the significantly lower land costs help position the company as a low-cost gas producer and enhance its profitability amid an anticipated surge in natural gas prices. While we acknowledge the potential of CRK as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: 10 Best Nuclear Energy Stocks to Buy Right Now and Disclosure: None. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
