Latest news with #ConsumerConfidenceIndex
Fibre2Fashion
a day ago
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
US Consumer Confidence Index drops sharply in June 2025: TCB
US consumer confidence declined significantly in June 2025. The Conference Board (TCB) Consumer Confidence Index fell by 5.4 points to 93, reversing nearly half of May's strong gains. Both the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index showed broad-based deterioration, reflecting growing pessimism about current conditions and the near-term outlook. The Present Situation Index, which gauges consumers' assessment of current business and labour market conditions, dropped 6.4 points to 129.1. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which captures short-term outlooks for income, business, and employment, declined by 4.6 points to 69—well below the 80-point threshold that typically signals a recession ahead, as per data by The Conference Board. US consumer confidence fell in June 2025, with The Conference Board Index dropping 5.4 points to 93. Both present and future outlooks weakened, with the Expectations Index plunging to 69, signalling recession risks. Pessimism grew about job prospects, business conditions, and income expectations. Inflation and tariffs remained top concerns, though inflation fears slightly eased. 'Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May's sharp gains,' said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers' assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration. Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May. Their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the sixth consecutive month but remained in positive territory, in line with the still-solid labour market. The three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all weakened. Consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months, and optimism about future income prospects eroded slightly.' Consumer sentiment towards current business conditions worsened, with 19 per cent describing them as good, down from 21.4 per cent in May, while those saying conditions were bad rose to 15.3 per cent. Views on the labour market also cooled, with the share of respondents stating jobs were 'plentiful' dropping to 29.2 per cent. Future expectations further darkened in June. Only 16.7 per cent of consumers anticipated business conditions would improve, while 24 per cent expected them to worsen. Expectations for job availability also dipped, with 15.4 per cent expecting more jobs—down from 18.6 per cent. Income expectations followed a similar trend, with just 16.3 per cent expecting higher incomes in the months ahead. Despite the gloomier outlook, consumers' assessments of their current and expected family financial situations remained resilient. However, the perceived likelihood of a US recession over the next year stayed elevated. 'Consumers' write-in responses revealed little change since May in the top issues impacting their views of the economy. Tariffs remained on top of consumers' minds and were frequently associated with concerns about their negative impacts on the economy and prices,' added Guichard. 'Inflation and high prices were another important concern cited by consumers in June. However, there were a few more mentions of easing inflation compared to last month. This is in line with a cooling in consumers' average 12-month inflation expectations to 6 per cent (down from 6.4 per cent in May and 7 per cent in April). References to geopolitics and social unrest increased slightly from previous months but remained much lower on the list of topics affecting consumers' views.' Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
SFM & 3 Retail Stocks Holding Strong as Consumer Confidence Slips
U.S. consumer sentiment declined in June, reflecting rising concerns over job concerns and broader economic challenges. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dipped by 5.4 points to 93.0, down from 98.4 in May, signaling growing unease among Present Situation Index, which assesses current views on business and labor market conditions, fell 6.4 points to 129.1. At the same time, the Expectations Index, which tracks short-term outlooks for income, business conditions and employment, slipped 4.6 points to 69.0.A primary driver behind this drop is the ongoing concern over trade policies. Although the Trump administration has taken steps to ease tensions, many consumers still view tariffs as a threat to economic stability. Their connection to rising prices and market disruptions has left a lasting mark on household confidence. Escalating geopolitical tensions have also weighed on the consumer even in this environment of pessimism, some players are better equipped to weather the storm. Their solid business models, loyal customer bases, and focus on value and essentials provide them with a distinct advantage. Companies such as Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. SFM, Urban Outfitters, Inc. URBN, Costco Wholesale Corporation COST and BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. BJ are better positioned to navigate shifts in consumer behavior. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Sprouts Farmers, operating in a highly fragmented grocery industry, is a compelling option. The company has adopted a multifaceted approach to expand its customer base and cater to evolving consumer preferences. Through product innovation, targeted marketing and competitive pricing, Sprouts Farmers ensures that its offerings resonate with its diverse customer base. The company's commitment to offering fresh, natural and organic products aligns with the growing consumer demand for healthier food options. Its store expansion and growing private label mix reflect solid momentum ahead. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Sprouts Farmers' current financial-year sales and earnings per share (EPS) implies growth of 13.7% and 35.5%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figure. SFM, which sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 16.5%, on average. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. URBN's major brands — Anthropologie, Free People and Urban Outfitters — are showing momentum across both digital and physical channels, driven by curated assortments, brand-right pricing and improved marketing execution. Growth in newer concepts like FP Movement and Nuuly adds to URBN's multi-brand leverage, expanding its reach and deepening customer engagement. Across the board, a focus on customer acquisition, full-price selling and creative content is enhancing profitability. Strategic initiatives such as store optimization, supply-chain agility and international synergies reinforce Urban Outfitters' long-term growth Zacks Consensus Estimate for Urban Outfitters' current financial-year sales and EPS suggests growth of 8.5% and 22.2%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figure. URBN, which sports a Zacks Rank #1, has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 29%, on average. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.) Costco has navigated market ups and downs effectively, driven by strategic investments, a customer-centric approach, merchandise initiatives and a strong emphasis on memberships. By identifying untapped markets and tailoring offerings to customer preferences, Costco has deepened its market presence. The company's high membership renewal rates, efficient supply chain management and bulk purchasing power ensure competitive pricing and foster strong customer Zacks Consensus Estimate for Costco's current financial-year sales and EPS calls for growth of 8.1% and 12%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figure. COST, which carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.4%, on average. BJ's Wholesale continues to demonstrate strong performance, fueled by its strategic focus on membership growth and digital innovations. The company remains committed to enhancing omnichannel capabilities and providing value to customers. These endeavors have contributed to growth in membership signups and renewals, resulting in higher membership fee income. Offering members convenient options such as same-day delivery, curbside pick-up, and buy online and pick up in-club, the company ensures an engaging and seamless digital shopping experience. BJ's Wholesale has been steadily increasing its footprint, targeting high-growth regions and underserved markets. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BJ's Wholesale's current financial-year sales and EPS suggests growth of 5.5% and 6.2%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figure. BJ, which carries a Zacks Rank #3, has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 17.7%, on average. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) : Free Stock Analysis Report Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) : Free Stock Analysis Report Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN) : Free Stock Analysis Report Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research
Business Insider
5 days ago
- Business
- Business Insider
Walmart Shares Hit by Consumer Confidence, Fulfillment Center Closure
Walmart (WMT) stock dropped 1.3% yesterday following news of a considerable dip in the Consumer Confidence Index for June. Growing concerns about inflation and interest rates have prompted consumers to reconsider their buying behavior, impacting retailers. The news affected shares of major retailers and consumer goods companies, but Walmart was impacted more due to additional negative developments. Confident Investing Starts Here: The company announced the closure of the Sam's Club fulfillment center in Fort Worth, Texas. Sam's Club is Walmart's membership-only warehouse chain. The fulfillment center, known internally as DFW4, handled online orders for Sam's Club in the surrounding area. Commenting on the closure, Walmart said, 'We're continuously evolving our fulfillment network to improve service for our customers and members as their needs change.' The Closure Will Lead to Job Losses According to a Reuters report, the move could also result in job losses. However, Walmart is offering relocation benefits, including a $7,500 transfer bonus. The facility employs about 200 workers, but the exact number of job losses will not be known until employees make their relocation decisions. Following the closure, scheduled for summer, orders previously serviced by DFW4 will be shifted to a new state-of-the-art fulfillment center in Lancaster, Texas, and to three Dallas-area warehouses. Walmart aims to reduce operational costs and improve efficiencies through this relocation. Walmart Accelerates Investments in Automation Walmart has been strategically ramping up investments in automation to accelerate its e-commerce operations. Employing robotics and automation at warehouses and fulfillment centers typically shortens the delivery times. These steps have helped Walmart to report its first-ever profit in its online business in Q1FY25. Rival Amazon (AMZN) is also investing billions in ramping-up automation at its warehouses to streamline operations. Meanwhile, sales at Sam's Club jumped 27% year-over-year in Q1. The company has witnessed a notable shift in consumer purchasing patterns. More than 50% of Sam's Club members have shifted to 'digital transactions in some form,' the company said. Is Walmart a Long-Term Buy? Analysts remain highly optimistic about Walmart's long-term stock trajectory. On TipRanks, WMT stock has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 28 Buys and one Hold rating. Also, the average Walmart price target of $109.71 implies 14.3% upside potential from current levels. Year-to-date, WMT stock has gained 6.8%.
IOL News
5 days ago
- Business
- IOL News
South African households face uphill battle as finances remain strained
According to the Quarterly Bulletin released by the South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) on Thursday, growth in real gross domestic expenditure (GDE) eased to 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025 following an increase of 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024. Image: Ayanda Ndamane/ Independent Newspapers. Household finances in South Africa are expected to remain strained on the back of accelerating unemployment rate and rising debt levels, resulting in slow expenditure trends. According to the Quarterly Bulletin released by the South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) on Thursday, growth in real gross domestic expenditure (GDE) eased to 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025 following an increase of 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024. Real final consumption expenditure by households increased at a slower pace in the first quarter of 2025 but nevertheless contributed most to growth in real GDP. By contrast, real final consumption expenditure by the general government and gross fixed capital formation contracted further, alongside a further deaccumulation of real inventory holdings, albeit at a slower pace. 'Growth in real final consumption expenditure by households moderated notably in the first quarter of 2025, along with the slower pace of increase in the real disposable income of households and a sharp decline in consumer confidence,' said the Sarb. 'Real spending on durable and non-durable goods increased at a slower pace, while that on semi-durable goods remained unchanged and growth in real outlays on services accelerated.' This comes as the Consumer Confidence Index rebounded from the significant drop in the first quarter of 2025 from -20 to -10 in the second quarter. This was predominantly due to the resolution or improvement in earlier concerns including the reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) increase, lower stages of loadshedding, improved relations between the United States and South Africa, and the Government of National Unity (GNU) partners' commitment to working together. Momentum Investments chief economist, Sanisha Packirisamy, maintained a positive view on the consumer outlook despite the headwinds facing consumers. Packirisamy said this outlook was supported by the rebound in CCI following the sentiment shock in the first quarter. 'The rise in the unemployment rate in the first quarter, potential fuel price increases following the temporary spike in Brent crude oil prices due to the Israel-Iran conflict, and floods could weigh on consumer sentiment. However, reduced load shedding, a continuation in two-pot withdrawals, lower interest rates and a stable GNU, if it persists, could support consumer confidence,' she said. 'We forecast household consumption expenditure to grow by 1.8% in 2025. As the largest component of GDP, accounting for 67.7% in the first quarter, household consumption is central to our growth outlook and forms the cornerstone of our 1.2% GDP growth projection for 2025.' Meanwhile, the Sarb said household debt as a percentage of nominal disposable income increased from 62.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 62.7% in the first quarter of 2025 as household debt increased more than nominal disposable income. Households' cost of servicing debt relative to disposable income edged slightly lower over the same period, reflecting lower interest payments following the further 25 basis point reduction in the prime lending rate in January 2025. Households' net wealth increased in the first quarter of 2025 as the market value of total assets increased more than that of total liabilities. The value of assets was boosted by a notable increase in domestic share prices as the FTSE/JSE All-Share Index outperformed share price indices in developed markets in the first quarter of 2025, while the value of housing stock also increased further. Real gross fixed capital formation decreased by a further 1.7% in the first quarter of 2025, driven by reduced capital spending by private business enterprises, while capital outlays by public corporations and general government increased 'An increase in business confidence is imperative to drive investment and accordingly economic growth, with expectations for growth having eased notably this year to 0.9%,' said Investec economist, Lara Hodes. Nedbank economist, Johannes Matimba Khosa, said household finances were expected to remain relatively healthy in 2025 despite the expected uptick in inflation off a low base. Khosa said this, along with higher wage settlements in the public sector, will continue to support real personal disposable income. He said lower interest rates and withdrawal from the Two-Pot retirement system will also help reduce debt service costs. 'However, the recovery in household finances will be partly contained by uncertain employment prospects. Given excess capacity and a volatile global environment, companies will hesitate to expand operations,' Khosa said. 'The US tariffs, weak global demand, and subdued commodity prices will impact job creation in exportoriented industries. At the same time, growth in government employment will be contained by fiscal consolidation.' BUSINESS REPORT
Daily Maverick
6 days ago
- Business
- Daily Maverick
SA's sentiment split — rich rebound, poor left behind
Depending on who you believe, consumer confidence is back, but with one crucial qualification — it's still negative. After plunging in Q1, South Africa's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is back up, but only for some. A sharp rebound in middle- and upper-income sentiment signals short-term resilience, but low-income households are still squeezed. The CCI isn't just sentiment – it's about who spends, and who can't. Wait, what is the CCI? The quarterly CCI compiled by First National Bank (FNB) and the Bureau of Economic Research (BER) is meant to measure how South Africans feel about three key questions: The country's economic outlook. Their own household's financial situation. Whether it's a good time to buy big-ticket items such as furniture or appliances. Each quarter, 500 adult South Africans are contacted via phone interviews across representative demographics to ask these questions – and the result reflects the net balance: the percentage of those who feel optimistic minus those who feel pessimistic. Old Mutual Wealth's chief investment strategist, Izak Odendaal, summed up the current sentiment succinctly: 'The economy is growing – but people don't feel good about it.' Rebound from close to rock-bottom In Q1 of 2025, the CCI plummeted from -6 to -20, a downturn driven by a mix of domestic political instability and international pressure. The proposed VAT hike and subsequent withdrawal, Budget-related infighting between ANC and DA partners, a short but sharp return to Stage 6 loadshedding and Donald Trump's revived tariff aggression towards South Africa all contributed to the collapse. By Q2, the CCI had recovered to -10 – a marked improvement, but still well below the historical average of -1. A May rate cut helped lower debt servicing costs, inflation on durable goods was subdued and political tensions calmed. But sentiment remains fragile, and, like the economy itself, uneven. At -10, the index is still far below its 30-year average – and firmly in negative territory. The recovery, as detailed in the FNB/BER release, mirrors the structural realities of South African inequality. Confidence didn't rise evenly across the board, but rather tracked closely with income. 'People are basically saying everything around me is falling apart, but my own finances are okay,' continued Odendaal. 'That's the kind of dissonance we're seeing – and it might explain why they're still spending.' Why this matters In a low-confidence environment, people tend to cut back and spend less, prioritising essentials such as food and debt servicing. In a high-confidence environment, people spend more – especially on discretionary goods – and tend to make greater use of available credit. The CCI is less of an economic mood ring and more a real-time proxy for spending power and economic activity on the ground. One index, three economies Among high-income households – those earning above R20,000 a month – sentiment surged from -30 to -11. While that's a significant gain, it's still not back to late 2024 levels. A lack of inflation-related tax bracket adjustments or new credits in Budget 3.0 may have capped the recovery. Middle-income earners, between R5,000 and R20,000 per month, showed the strongest recovery: confidence climbed to -7, matching late 2024 levels. This group likely benefited the most from the two-pot pension withdrawals, a 25 basis point rate cut, and lower fuel prices, alongside increased affordability of newer vehicle models. Low-income households – those earning under R5,000 – barely moved. Confidence ticked up only two points, from -17 to -15. These households, the majority in South Africa, have little access to pension withdrawals or formal credit, and continue to feel the brunt of rising food inflation, unemployment and climate shocks such as the Eastern Cape floods. 'Given the deterioration in both the global and domestic economic outlook in recent months… it's not surprising that high-income confidence settled at a lower level,' said FNB Chief Economist Mamello Matikinca-Ngwenya, in the Q2 CCI release. Despite the bleak sentiment data, consumer spending appears more resilient. 'Retail and vehicle sales are holding up – even though the CCI is currently lower than it was during the 2009 recession,' Odendaal noted. Retail echoes and spending signals What does a rebound in sentiment mean for the real economy? Retail sales rose 5.1% year-on-year in April. New vehicle sales jumped 30% in May. Middle-class consumers are spending again – cautiously. But this recovery comes with caveats: The two-pot pension bump is a once-off. Inflation is edging upward. The bottom third of households remain under economic strain. Confidence is not income – and that gap could widen if price pressures accelerate. But what does this mean? The latest CCI tells a story of fragile optimism, but only for those with buffers. If you're middle or high income, you may be feeling more secure, and the data suggests you're already spending more. But if you're among the country's lower-income majority, those gains are unlikely to feel real. Inflation, unemployment and rising food costs continue to erode financial confidence, while access to credit and relief remains unequal. For policymakers, the message is clear: sentiment is recovering, but unevenly. Without equitable relief or targeted support, confidence may return only to those who need it least. 'The question is: is the economy growing? Yes, slowly. Are people happy? No. These are two different questions,' Odendaal said – a reminder that in economics, feelings and fundamentals don't always align. DM
