Latest news with #Consumption
India Gazette
02-07-2025
- Business
- India Gazette
Indian Rupee likely to trade in 85.25-86.25/USD range; India-US trade deal to support currency: BoB Report
New Delhi [India], July 2 (ANI): The Indian rupee is expected to trade in the range of 85.25-86.25 against the US dollar in the near term, according to a recent report by Bank of Baroda. The report stated that a trade deal between India and the United States will be positive for the rupee and may help support its value further. 'We expect INR to trade in the range of 85.25-86.25/USD in the near term. A trade deal between India and the US will be positive for the rupee,' the report noted. However, some amount of volatility is expected as the US tariff pause deadline on July 9 approaches. Despite the potential volatility, the bank believed that the overall weakness in the US dollar would persist due to domestic economic factors in the US. On the domestic front, India's strong macroeconomic fundamentals and sufficient external buffers are likely to prevent any sharp depreciation in the rupee. The report highlighted that the rupee depreciated by 0.2 per cent in June 2025, following a 1.3 per cent depreciation in May 2025. However, the rupee rebounded in the second fortnight of June, appreciating by 0.4 per cent as tensions in the Middle East eased. This helped reduce oil prices and improved investor risk appetite. Equity inflows remained positive for the third consecutive month in June 2025, though debt outflows accelerated. A weaker US dollar also supported the rupee, largely driven by concerns over US fiscal policies, rising stagflation risks, and uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's independence. Globally, most currencies appreciated in June 2025 as the dollar index (DXY) fell by 2.5 per cent. The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at 4.25-4.5 per cent in its June 2025 meeting. The dot plot continued to show expectations of two rate cuts this year, but seven members now expect no rate change, up from four members earlier. The report also pointed out that the risk of stagflation is increasing, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rising by 2.7 per cent year-on-year in May 2025, higher than the expected 2.6 per cent. On a month-on-month basis, core PCE rose 0.2 per cent, also above expectations of 0.1 per cent. In contrast, consumer spending declined by 0.1 per cent and incomes fell by 0.4 per cent during the month. Additionally, policy uncertainty related to trade deals, the looming July 9 deadline for US tariffs, a new spending bill introduced by the Trump administration, and concerns over the Fed's independence have further reduced demand for the US dollar. (ANI)
Yahoo
01-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
3 Financial Stocks to Buy Now on Core PCE Coming in High
The May 2025 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report, released at the end of June, has reinforced expectations that the Fed will remain hawkish well into the second half of the year. With core PCE inflation rising approximately 0.22% month over month and 2.68% year over year, markets have recalibrated their outlook for interest rates, pushing out anticipated cuts and increasing the likelihood of sustained higher borrowing costs. One of the most immediate consequences has been the upward movement in Treasury yields. The benchmark 10-year yield climbed from roughly 3.35% to about 3.45% on the core PCE coming in hotter than expected. As bond markets react to the sticky inflation data, long-duration yields have been climbing, reflecting investors' belief that rate cuts are no longer imminent. For commercial banks, the steepening yield curve may offer some relief by improving net interest margins. In an environment where interest rates are not going to come down rapidly, stocks like Nelnet, Inc. NNI, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. PGY and United Fire Group, Inc. UFCS become viable investment options to look into. When interest rates are relatively high, banks and other financial institutions generally see increased profitability due to increased lending rates. The gap between such lending rates is considered a long-term asset for banks. Also, short-term liabilities such as deposits increase and boost net interest margins. Bank stocks, insurance companies and other financial institutions tend to go up with continuous interest rate hikes. This is because financial services companies can earn more on the money and the credit they issue to their customers. The sector was a strong performer in 2024, delivering solid returns. It has continued to prosper in 2025, with the S&P 500 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF) soaring 9.1% year to date as of June 30. Also, financial stocks are very popular investments on their own. Most companies within the sector issue dividends and are judged on the overall strength of their financial health. It is thus prudent to add a few to one's portfolio. The stocks below flaunt a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or Rank #2 (Buy). The search was also narrowed down with a VGM Score of A or B. Here, V stands for Value, G for Growth and M for Momentum. The score is a weighted combination of these three metrics. Such a score allows you to eliminate the negative aspects of stocks and select winners. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. Nelnet is a loan servicing, education technology services and payment businesses company. NNI's expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 59%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current-year earnings has improved 16.8% over the past 60 days. This Zacks Rank #1 company has a VGM Score of B. Pagaya Technologies provides data science and proprietary artificial intelligence-powered technology for the financial services sector. PGY's expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 195.2%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current-year earnings has improved 39.2% over the past 60 days. This Zacks Rank #1 company has a VGM Score of B. United Fire Group is a property and casualty insurance company. UFCS' expected earnings growth rate for the next year is 8%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current-year earnings has improved 3.3% over the past 60 days. This Zacks Rank #2 company has a VGM Score of B. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Nelnet, Inc. (NNI) : Free Stock Analysis Report United Fire Group, Inc (UFCS) : Free Stock Analysis Report Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Journals
01-07-2025
- Business
- Business Journals
The U.S. economy in 2025: Embracing the 'new normal'
We've all felt it: grocery bills that seem to climb with every trip, dinner tabs that make us blink twice and home prices that may seem out of reach. As we move through 2025, these aren't just passing frustrations — they're signs of a broader shift in our economic environment. Welcome to what many are calling the 'new normal.' This new phase in our economy, shaped by persistent inflation, evolving housing dynamics, fluctuating energy prices and shifting global trade policies, marks a clear departure from the rapid growth and low inflation we knew before the pandemic. And, while it may take some time for all of us to mentally adjust to this new reality, we must adapt — for our families, our businesses and our futures. Inflation and interest rates: Walking a tightrope Inflation continues to be a top concern. Despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to ease monetary policy — cutting interest rates to a range of 4.25% to 4.5% — inflationary pressures remain stubborn. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred metric, sat at 2.8% as of early 2025 — still above target. Geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, threaten to push energy prices higher, adding complexity to the Fed's decision-making and making the road ahead less predictable. The housing market: A slower climb After years of red-hot growth, the housing market is finally showing signs of leveling off. Experts expect home values to increase between 2% and 5% this year, according to KPMG — a much more manageable pace. This cooling trend comes thanks to slowing demand and a noticeable uptick in multifamily housing developments, helping to rebalance supply and demand. Energy prices: Uncertain terrain Energy prices remain a wild card. While a recent easing of tensions in the Middle East has caused a temporary dip in oil prices, the situation remains fragile. Any resurgence in conflict could send prices soaring again — with ripple effects across inflation, consumer spending and broader economic stability. Trade policies: Protectionism comes at a price In an effort to reduce trade deficits and promote domestic manufacturing, the U.S. has adopted a more protectionist stance. By April 2025, the effective tariff rate climbed to 27%. While this approach aims to strengthen American industry, it has also triggered retaliatory measures from global partners, adding pressure to supply chains and costs for both consumers and businesses. Jobs and the Fed: A delicate balance The labor market remains relatively healthy, with unemployment around 4%. But, wage growth is beginning to slow — a sign that things may be cooling off. The Federal Reserve is proceeding cautiously with further rate cuts, trying to strike the right balance between supporting growth and keeping inflation in check. Looking ahead: A slower, steadier path What's next? Economists predict real GDP growth of 1.9% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026. Inflation is expected to gradually decline and potentially reach the Fed's 2% target by 2026. The housing market will likely stay stable, while energy prices and global trade developments remain key variables. The job market may see modest softening — but overall, the outlook points to a slower, more sustainable pace of growth. Finding opportunity in uncertainty Change — even when challenging — also brings opportunity. Whether you're running a local business, investing in your future or making everyday financial decisions, choosing the right partner can make all the difference. At Independence Bank, we understand the challenges that come with economic transitions. As Kentucky's largest privately held bank, we're committed to helping individuals and businesses grow — not just survive — in this new environment.
BusinessToday
28-06-2025
- Business
- BusinessToday
KLCI May Continue To Trend Higher With Resistance Level At 1,540
Asian markets mostly closed higher, buoyed by hopes that the US-brokered Israel-Iran ceasefire would hold, which also contributed to a decline in oil prices. Sentiment across the region was further boosted by a mildly dovish tone from US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, echoing earlier remarks from Fed officials Waller and Bowman, which kept the possibility of a July rate cut in play, contingent on inflation trends and rising labour market risks. United States Market: In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 107 points, experiencing profit-taking after rallying 917 points over the past three consecutive sessions. Investors weighed the progress of the Middle East ceasefire against Powell's cautious congressional remarks. Powell indicated that tariff-driven inflation is manageable but reaffirmed that the Fed is not yet ready to cut rates despite political pressure. Economic data from the US showed new home sales falling to their lowest level since October 2024, impacted by high mortgage rates. Markets are now looking ahead to the release of durable goods data on June 26 and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reading on June 27. After market hours, Micron Technology (MU) gained 0.9% on strong earnings and outlook. Malaysian Market Performance: mirroring positive trends in Wall Street and regional markets, Malaysia's FBM KLCI gained 5.5 points to close at 1,519.8. Market breadth remained positive, indicating more advancing stocks than declining ones. Trading volume stood at 3.15 billion shares, a 15% increase compared to the June month-to-date (MTD) average of 2.74 billion shares. The total trading value reached RM2.27 billion, up 7.6% from the June MTD average of RM2.11 billion, signaling underlying market strength. Local institutions resumed their net buying, adding RM110 million (June MTD: +RM1.78 billion; Year-to-Date (YTD): +RM10.56 billion). In contrast, foreign funds continued their net outflows, recording -RM51 million today after a brief RM5 million nibble a day ago (June MTD: -RM1.50 billion; YTD: -RM12.33 billion). Retail investors also registered net outflows of -RM59 million (June MTD: -RM279 million; YTD: +RM1.77 billion). The KLCI is trending higher, with HLIB noting that major resistance levels are identified at 1,523, 1,532, and 1,540. Related
Business Recorder
26-06-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Gold slips on easing ME tensions, Fed rate cut uncertainty
NEW YORK: Gold prices edged lower on Thursday, weighed down by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and continued uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory. Spot gold fell 0.5% to $3,316.47 per ounce, as of 0933 a.m. EDT (1333 GMT). US gold futures slipped 0.4% to $3,329.20. 'Gold has declined over the past few sessions due to de-escalation in the Middle East. Also, adding pressure was the anticipated interest rate cut — eagerly awaited by the market that continues to be delayed amid rising inflation expectations driven by Trump-era tariffs,' said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Meanwhile, Fed Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin cautioned it was hard to know how tariff increases will translate into inflation in the US economy. Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee said a decision by US President Donald Trump to name a replacement for Fed chair Jerome Powell would have no influence on monetary policy from outside the central bank. Markets currently anticipate two rate cuts totalling 50 basis points this year, starting in September. Gold usually does well during times of uncertainty and inflation, but higher interest rates make it less attractive since it doesn't earn any interest. Data showed the US economy contracted a bit faster than previously thought in the first quarter amid tepid consumer spending, underscoring the distortions caused tariffs. Investors are now eyeing Friday's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data. Palladium lost 2.5% to $1,084.41. Platinum climbed to its highest level since September 2014, adding 1.7% to $1,377.62. Internal combustion vehicles are likely to remain relevant for longer as governments delay phase-out targets, and biofuel adoption continues to rely on platinum group metals, said Nitesh Shah, commodities strategist at WisdomTree. Spot silver was up 0.2% to $36.39.
