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The Citizen
08-07-2025
- Business
- The Citizen
Buy-to-let demand soars in Jo'burg
Buy-to-let investors from around the world are snapping up rental apartments in Johannesburg as companies ramp up their demand for office space and large numbers of tenants make their way back to the city. That's the word from Rory O'Hagan, managing principal of Chas Everitt Sandton, Waterfall and Bedfordview, who notes that rising office demand is being accompanied by a spike in demand for rental apartments and estate homes close to workplaces in the main commercial nodes. 'This is being further fuelled by the evolution of many office buildings and precincts into mixed-use environments to make them more attractive as permanent residential options, and rental demand is soaring in areas like Sandton, Rosebank, Bryanston and Waterfall, to the extent that we often don't even have time to advertise our listings in these areas before they are taken up. 'And those we do advertise are attracting major interest. A luxury two-bedroom apartment we recently sold in Dunkeld attracted 30 enquiries in the first week, and another in Riverclub was also sold in a few days after notching up 28 enquiries. Investment buyers we have worked with recently have also been buying one and two-bedroom apartments to let out in Craighall Park, Rosebank and Waterfall.' He says that in a strong turnaround from the Covid-driven trend which saw city centres empty out as remote working freed both employees and executives to head en masse for coastal and country locations, these tenants and buyers are now returning to urban areas in droves – along with many others who are coming to Gauteng especially, in search of new jobs and business opportunities. 'And this new dynamic has not been lost on investors, both local and foreign, who are literally queuing up to buy apartments, townhouses and clusters suitable for letting in the most sought-after areas. We are getting competing offers on units in the most popular areas and we are also seeing new apartment developments experience rapid sellouts, mostly to investors from Europe and other countries in Africa as well as South Africa.' The main reasons for the current increases in office demand, O'Hagan says, include the increasing number of large employers (especially in Johannesburg) requiring a full return to the office. Uptake in Cape Town has also been boosted lately, he notes, by the growth of the labour-intensive Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) industry in SA. 'These factors are noted in the latest office market reports from global commercial real estate company Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), which reveal that more than 400 000sqm of office space was absorbed during the first quarter of this year, mostly in Johannesburg (230 000sqm) and Cape Town (140 000sqm), and that while the national vacancy rate hovers at around 14%, the vacancy rate for prime (P-grade) office space is now only 6%. (See and ) 'At the same time, a rising number of multinational companies have recently made strategic investments in SA, and others are responding now to the government's new frameworks for public-private partnerships, especially in infrastructure development. 'Owing to its increased international exposure because of the African Continent Free Trade Agreement and the forthcoming G20 Summit, Johannesburg is the current focus of these companies, and this will no doubt create further rental demand for both offices and residences for staff and executives assigned to work on SA projects.' Meanwhile, says O'Hagan, the most recent StatsSA Household Survey shows that the overall percentage of SA's 19m households that rent rather than buy has increased from 17,7% in 2020 to 23,9%, while the Global Property Guide notes that the gross residential yield in SA has risen from 9,96% in the last quarter of 2024 to 10,36% currently. (See ). 'These are very positive numbers for buy-to-let investors, especially when one considers that average rental yields in the UK and US, for example, range between 6% and 7%, those in Australia around 5% and those in most of Europe from 4% to 5%. 'SA has also experienced a decline in both the planning and completion of new homes over the past two years that is expected to give rise to a supply shortage and rising rentals going forward.' (See Issued by Chas Everitt International
Yahoo
12-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Legendary fund manager sends blunt 3-word message on economy
Legendary fund manager sends blunt 3-word message on economy originally appeared on TheStreet. There's been considerable debate over the US economy this year. After delivering solid growth in 2024 that propelled the S&P 500 up 24%, worries have mounted that President Trump's tariffs scheme could fuel inflation, crimp spending, and send the economy, stocks, and bonds into a tailspin. Those favoring tariffs argue they're the best way to strong-arm manufacturing back to America, while opponents say they're inflationary impact couldn't happen at a worse time, given increasing will take time to determine who is correct. Factories take considerable time to build, and most economists think tariffs' inflation impact on business and consumer spending trends won't really be felt until later this year. There's also the chance that future trade deals reduce the tariff bite. However, that argument lost some of its strength this week when President Trump said that ongoing negotiations with China wouldn't result in lower tariffs on Chinese imports. Undeniably, this dynamic means there's significant uncertainty, and historically, that's not a great recipe for a strong economy or stock market. The potential for the US economy to cause problems for stocks and bonds isn't lost on billionaire hedge fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach, the founder of DoubleLine, a hedge fund with over $90 billion in assets under management. Gundlach recently offered a blunt assessment of the market's future, and given his professional experience since the mid-1980s, investors ought to consider his advice carefully. A flood of monetary and fiscal stimulus saved the US economy from a Covid-driven depression in 2020, but it sparked runaway inflation that forced the Federal Reserve to employ the most hawkish rate hikes since the 1980s when Fed Chair Paul Volcker won a war against skyrocketing inflation. The Fed's rate hikes worked, given that inflation has fallen below 3% from over 8% in 2022, but they've done so at a cost. The drag of higher rates has caused layoffs, lifting the US unemployment rate to 4.2% from 3.4% in uptick in joblessness prompted Fed Chair Jerome Powell to switch gears again, cutting rates last September, November, and December. However, those cuts have yet to improve employment meaningfully, and they've arguably set the stage for inflation to reassert itself. President Trump's tariff plans compound the worry over inflation. In February, he enacted 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. In April, he announced 25% tariffs on autos. While he's temporarily walked back the worst of his reciprocal tariffs, a 10% baseline tariff and a roughly 55% US tariff on China remain. Those tariffs pose a high threat to the US economy. Since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, the US and China have become increasingly entwined. Most US companies, including manufacturers, source goods from China, especially automakers and retailers whose supply chains are particularly reliant. The rising costs associated with higher import taxes will likely force companies to raise consumer prices or take a hit to their bottom line. Higher prices will likely crimp revenue growth, while smaller profit margins reduce earnings. That's not a great backdrop for higher stock prices, given revenue and profit growth are cornerstones of stock market valuation. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the situation has affected consumer confidence. The Conference Board's closely watched Expectations Index was 72.8 last month, below the threshold of 80 that often signals a looming recession. Gundlach's forty-year career managing money means he's seen a thing or two. His position at the top of one of the largest hedge funds gives him insight across sectors, industries, and asset not a fan of what's happening. And unlike during Covid, the US isn't nearly in the shape it was to prevent any future recession with stimulus, given the size of the U.S. debt pile. 'There's an awareness now that the long-term Treasury bond is not a legitimate flight-to-quality asset,' said Gundlach in a Bloomberg interview. "It's not responding to lower interest rates." If true, that would mark a major shift. Historically, global investors have sought safety in Treasuries, viewing them as essentially risk-free assets. "In the last 15 years, there have been a number of corrections in the S&P 500, and in every single one of them, when the S&P 500 goes down more than 10%, the trade-weighted dollar index goes up. This time the Dollar went down... Usually, when the Fed starts cutting interest rates, rates across the yield curve go time, the 10-year went up," noted Gundlach. More Economic Analysis: Hedge-fund manager sees U.S. becoming Greece A critical industry is slamming the economy Reports may show whether the economy is toughing out the tariffs Gundlach worries that yields on US Treasuries could rise significantly, reaching 6%. That would be good news for retirees pocketing fixed income, but it would be a major headwind for corporations and households who became addicted to the Fed's previous zero-interest rate policy, or ZIRP. "The interest expense for the United States is untenable if we continue running a $2.1 trillion budget deficit," said Gundlach. The 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond yields are currently 4.39% and 4.88%. The 10-year Treasury yield is often used to inform mortgage rates, so a big uptick in its yields would send ripples through the housing market. He also thinks we may have seen the low in inflation for now, suggesting household budgets will get more crimped. "We're likely seeing the low point in near-term inflation," said Gundlach. Overall, Gundlach offered a blunt conclusion: "A reckoning is coming.'Legendary fund manager sends blunt 3-word message on economy first appeared on TheStreet on Jun 12, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jun 12, 2025, where it first appeared. Sign in to access your portfolio
Miami Herald
12-06-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Billionaire fund manager sends blunt 3-word message on economy
There's been considerable debate over the US economy this year. After delivering solid growth in 2024 that propelled the S&P 500 up 24%, worries have mounted that President Trump's tariffs scheme could fuel inflation, crimp spending, and send the economy, stocks, and bonds into a tailspin. Those favoring tariffs argue they're the best way to strong-arm manufacturing back to America, while opponents say they're inflationary impact couldn't happen at a worse time, given increasing unemployment. Related: Billionaire fund manager sends strong message on Fed Chair Powell's future It will take time to determine who is correct. Factories take considerable time to build, and most economists think tariffs' inflation impact on business and consumer spending trends won't really be felt until later this year. There's also the chance that future trade deals reduce the tariff bite. However, that argument lost some of its strength this week when President Trump said that ongoing negotiations with China wouldn't result in lower tariffs on Chinese imports. Undeniably, this dynamic means there's significant uncertainty, and historically, that's not a great recipe for a strong economy or stock market. The potential for the US economy to cause problems for stocks and bonds isn't lost on billionaire hedge fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach, the founder of DoubleLine, a hedge fund with over $90 billion in assets under management. Gundlach recently offered a blunt assessment of the market's future, and given his professional experience since the mid-1980s, investors ought to consider his advice carefully. CNBC/Getty Images A flood of monetary and fiscal stimulus saved the US economy from a Covid-driven depression in 2020, but it sparked runaway inflation that forced the Federal Reserve to employ the most hawkish rate hikes since the 1980s when Fed Chair Paul Volcker won a war against skyrocketing inflation. The Fed's rate hikes worked, given that inflation has fallen below 3% from over 8% in 2022, but they've done so at a cost. The drag of higher rates has caused layoffs, lifting the US unemployment rate to 4.2% from 3.4% in 2023. Related: Surprising inflation, China news sends S&P 500 stumbling The uptick in joblessness prompted Fed Chair Jerome Powell to switch gears again, cutting rates last September, November, and December. However, those cuts have yet to improve employment meaningfully, and they've arguably set the stage for inflation to reassert itself. President Trump's tariff plans compound the worry over inflation. In February, he enacted 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. In April, he announced 25% tariffs on autos. While he's temporarily walked back the worst of his reciprocal tariffs, a 10% baseline tariff and a roughly 55% US tariff on China remain. Those tariffs pose a high threat to the US economy. Since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, the US and China have become increasingly entwined. Most US companies, including manufacturers, source goods from China, especially automakers and retailers whose supply chains are particularly reliant. The rising costs associated with higher import taxes will likely force companies to raise consumer prices or take a hit to their bottom line. Higher prices will likely crimp revenue growth, while smaller profit margins reduce earnings. That's not a great backdrop for higher stock prices, given revenue and profit growth are cornerstones of stock market valuation. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the situation has affected consumer confidence. The Conference Board's closely watched Expectations Index was 72.8 last month, below the threshold of 80 that often signals a looming recession. Gundlach's forty-year career managing money means he's seen a thing or two. His position at the top of one of the largest hedge funds gives him insight across sectors, industries, and asset classes. Related: CPI inflation report resets interest rate cut bets He's not a fan of what's happening. And unlike during Covid, the US isn't nearly in the shape it was to prevent any future recession with stimulus, given the size of the U.S. debt pile. "There's an awareness now that the long-term Treasury bond is not a legitimate flight-to-quality asset," said Gundlach in a Bloomberg interview. "It's not responding to lower interest rates." If true, that would mark a major shift. Historically, global investors have sought safety in Treasuries, viewing them as essentially risk-free assets. "In the last 15 years, there have been a number of corrections in the S&P 500, and in every single one of them, when the S&P 500 goes down more than 10%, the trade-weighted dollar index goes up. This time the Dollar went down... Usually, when the Fed starts cutting interest rates, rates across the yield curve go time, the 10-year went up," noted Gundlach. More Economic Analysis: Hedge-fund manager sees U.S. becoming GreeceA critical industry is slamming the economyReports may show whether the economy is toughing out the tariffs Gundlach worries that yields on US Treasuries could rise significantly, reaching 6%. That would be good news for retirees pocketing fixed income, but it would be a major headwind for corporations and households who became addicted to the Fed's previous zero-interest rate policy, or ZIRP. "The interest expense for the United States is untenable if we continue running a $2.1 trillion budget deficit," said Gundlach. The 10-year Treasury note and 30-year Treasury bond yields are currently 4.39% and 4.88%. The 10-year Treasury yield is often used to inform mortgage rates, so a big uptick in its yields would send ripples through the housing market. He also thinks we may have seen the low in inflation for now, suggesting household budgets will get more crimped. "We're likely seeing the low point in near-term inflation," said Gundlach. Overall, Gundlach offered a blunt conclusion: "A reckoning is coming." Related: Veteran fund manager who predicted April rally updates S&P 500 forecast The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Yahoo
16-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Bear of the Day: Boise Cascade (BCC)
Boise Cascade BCC is one of the top North American producers of engineered wood products and plywood. BCC stock has tanked over 20% in 2025, driven by macroeconomic challenges, industry-specific headwinds, and operational pressures. The engineered wood products powerhouse missed our Q1 2025 earnings estimate by 22% on May 5. It also offered disappointing guidance as part of Boise Cascade's extended trend of downward EPS revisions. Boise Cascade is a leading producer of engineered wood products (EWP) and plywood. The company is also a huge player in the wholesale distribution of building products in the U.S. BCC posted an impressive stretch of top-line expansion between 2012 and 2022, highlighted by 18% growth in 2020 and 45% in 2021, driven by the Covid-driven housing and home improvement boom. Boise Cascade followed that up with another 6% sales growth in 2022, before tumbling against a tough to compete against stretch and a slowing housing market. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research The company's sales fell 19% in 2023 and 2% in 2024, while its earnings tanked roughly 40% and 20%, respectively. Most recently, Boise Cascade adjusted earnings dropped 59% YoY in the first quarter to $1.06 a share, missing our estimate by 22%. CEO Nate Jorgensen pointed to 'constrained demand, difficult weather, and planned downtime at our Oakdale veneer and plywood mill' as part of its rough quarter and downbeat outlook. Boise Cascade's consensus 2025 earnings estimate has dropped 18% since its Q1 report. Its 2026 estimate has slipped 13% since then, and its overall negative earnings revisions earn it a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). The company's earnings are projected to fall another 31% YoY in 2025 on 2% lower sales. Boise Cascade is prepared to benefit from long-term demographic trends and the ongoing undersupply of single-family homes that have kept housing demand high. The company also pays dividends and has a sturdy balance sheet. Investors might want to put Boise Cascade on their watchlists since it could be a longer-term winner. Unfortunately, BCC faces near-term headwinds driven by weak housing market demand, economic uncertainty, and more. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Boise Cascade, L.L.C. (BCC) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
07-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America and Morgan Stanely are part of Zacks Earnings Preview
Chicago, IL – April 7, 2025 – releases the list of companies likely to issue earnings surprises. This week's list includes JPMorgan JPM, Wells Fargo WFC, Bank of America BAC and Morgan Stanely MS. If you didn't know how banks made money, you would be justified in assuming that their business must be really exposed to tariffs. That will be a logical interpretation of bank stock performance in the ongoing tariff-induced market turmoil. Big banks like JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America and Morgan Stanely relative to the S&P 500 index since February 19th. Two of these three banks are on deck to kick off the 2025 Q1 reporting cycle for the Finance sector by reporting their results before the market's open on Friday, April 11th. We all know that the banking business isn't subject to tariffs. But as cyclical operators, their business is heavily exposed to trends in the broader economy, which in turn is seen as weighed down by the ongoing tariffs uncertainty. There is no denying that risks to the broader economic outlook have increased, with many economists raising their recession odds and lowering their GDP growth expectations. Simply looking at the chart above, which shows the performance of these bank stocks since February 19th, makes it clear that market participants see the going getting more challenging for these banks. We intuitively understand this as the demand for credit decreases in a softening economic environment. At the same time, the quality of the bank's assets suffers, as a portion of its existing borrowers are unable to pay back their loans. Monthly loan volume data from the Federal Reserve has been showing a modest acceleration in loan demand in the first three months of the year, with commercial and industrial (C&I) loans and home-equity loans modestly up. The overriding issue for bank stock investors, however, is whether these trends can be sustained in the current macroeconomic environment. The stock market performance of these bank stocks suggests that they aren't hopeful on that count. With respect to credit quality, the problems in the commercial real estate (CRE) market are well-known and already adequately provisioned for at the major banks. Beyond CRE, aggregate bankruptcies in the U.S. have risen significantly from the Covid-driven low of early 2022, but the growth rate has been leveling off in recent months. We see this trend in early-stage credit card delinquencies as well, with the flat year-over-year growth rates in recent months indicative of favorable developments with respect to net charge-off rates this year. As with loan demand, the key question on the credit quality front will be expectations for the coming periods in a macroeconomic backdrop that is at best showing moderating growth, if not an altogether recessionary downturn. The outlook for the investment banking business is likely the biggest victim of the deterioration in market sentiment. This is notable, as management teams have consistently flagged the steady expansion in deal pipelines in recent quarters. At the start of the year, many in the market had been expecting to see signs of the hoped-for rebound in these Q1 results, but that has now been delayed, at least while the tariffs issue is front and center for the market. JPMorgan is expected to report $4.60 per share in earnings (down -0.7% year-over-year) on $43.01 billion in revenues (up +2.6% YoY). The stock was up nicely on the last earnings release on January 15th, reflecting positive commentary about the outlook. Estimates have been steadily going up, with the current $4.60 per share estimate up from $4.54 a month ago and $4.25 three months back. Wells Fargo is expected to report EPS of $1.23 (down -2.4% year-over-year) on $20.8 billion in revenues (down -0.3% YOY). Estimates for Q1 have largely been stable since the quarter got underway, with the current $1.23 estimate down from $1.24 a month back but up from $1.19 per share three months back. Wells Fargo were shares up following the last quarterly release on January 15th. For Morgan Stanely, the expectation is of $2.32 per share in earnings (up +14.9% YOY) on $16.8 billion in revenues (up +11.2%). The revisions trend has been positive, with analysts nudging their estimates higher since the quarter got underway. As with JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley shares were also up following the last quarterly release. The Zacks Major Banks industry, of which JPMorgan and Wells Fargo are a part, is expected to earn +0.7% higher earnings in 2025 Q1 on +5.3% higher revenues. Please note that this industry brought in roughly 50% of the Zacks Finance sector's total earnings over the trailing four-quarter period. Q1 earnings for the Zacks Finance sector are expected to be up +1.8% from the same period last year on +2.8% higher revenues. Despite the big bank stocks' outperformance over the past year, they are still cheap on most conventional valuation metrics. Relative to the S&P 500 index, the Zacks Major Banks industry is currently trading at 61% of the S&P 500 forward 12-month P/E multiple. Over the last 10 years, the industry has traded as high as 78% of the index, as low as 52%, and median of 62%. The Q1 reporting cycle will really get going this week with the aforementioned bank results. But several companies with fiscal quarters ending in February have been reporting results in recent weeks. Thus far, we have seen such February-quarter results from 19 S&P 500 members. All of these February-quarter results are combined with our March-quarter results. Total earnings for these 19 index members are up +9.4% from the same period last year on +5.7% revenue gains, with 57.9% of the companies beating EPS estimates and 68.4% beating revenue estimates. As you can see here, these early companies appear to be struggling to beat consensus estimates, with the EPS beats percentage for this group of companies the lowest in the preceding 20-quarter period. This is disconcerting, but we want to caution against reading too much into these early results, given the sample size. The expectation is that Q1 earnings will be up +6% from the same period last year on +3.7% higher revenues, which would follow the +14.1% earnings growth on +5.7% revenue gains in the preceding period. We have been experiencing a relatively high magnitude of negative revisions to estimates for the current period (2025 Q1), even before the more recent signs of weakness in data that drove the recent run of soft guidance from several companies. As noted earlier, these are more negative revisions to Q1 estimates since the start of January compared to the comparable periods of the preceding few quarters. Not only is the magnitude of negative revisions to Q1 estimates more pronounced relative to the last few quarters, but it is also more widespread. Since the start of the period in January, estimates have come down for 13 of the 16 Zacks sectors, with the biggest declines for the Conglomerates, Autos, Basic Materials, Aerospace, Consumer Discretionary, and others. The three sectors whose Q1 estimates have moved up since the quarter got underway are Medical, Utilities, and Construction. The Tech sector, whose estimates have consistently been positive over the past year, is also suffering negative revisions to Q1 estimates. Optimism about the AI investment cycle suffered a psychological blow following China's DeepSeek announcement. The resulting shift in market sentiment has been weighing on the space ever since, contributing to the underperformance of AI-focused stocks this year. Tariff headwinds add to the sector's worries, as a large portion of Tech hardware is manufactured in Asia. The sector still remains a key growth driver in Q1 and beyond, with 2025 Q1 earnings for the Tech sector expected to be up +12.6% on +10.2% higher revenues. A lot will be riding on the evolving earnings expectations for the Tech sector, which has been a pillar of growth over the last two years. The recent run of underwhelming guidance releases are coming at a time of growing anxiety about the macroeconomic backdrop, with many in the market starting to worry about the U.S. economy's near-term growth momentum. Uncertainty about the Trump administration's tariff policies is starting to appear in business and consumer confidence measures, and some have begun to worry that the ongoing public sector job cuts will eventually spill over into the private sector as well. Depending on where the emerging tariff regime settles, earnings estimates will need to come down in response. The ongoing market weakness is essentially a reflection of this diminished earnings expectations. For more details about the evolving earnings picture, please check out our weekly Earnings Trends report here >>>>Looking Ahead to the Q1 Earnings Season Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +7.7% average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +48.4%, +50.2% and +56.7% per year. Today you can access their live picks without cost or obligation. See Stocks Free >> Media Contact Zacks Investment Research 800-767-3771 ext. 9339 support@ provides investment resources and informs you of these resources, which you may choose to use in making your own investment decisions. Zacks is providing information on this resource to you subject to the Zacks "Terms and Conditions of Service" disclaimer. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Bank of America Corporation (BAC) : Free Stock Analysis Report Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) : Free Stock Analysis Report JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) : Free Stock Analysis Report Morgan Stanley (MS) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research
