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Washington Post
25-06-2025
- Politics
- Washington Post
Why powerful pro-Tehran militias in Iraq stayed quiet amid Iran conflict
When U.S. forces struck three Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, concern rippled through the population of neighboring Iraq, where pro-Iranian militias wield much influence and the majority of the people, like in Iran, are Shiite Muslims. The prospect for retaliation in Iraq against the U.S. briefly loomed. Nowhere else in the Arab world do American and Iranian interests exist in such close proximity, with several thousand U.S. soldiers stationed on a string of military bases across the country and Iran supporting a range of political and armed forces that wield power on the ground. But those Iraqi militias have proved to be conspicuously quiet. These groups have been shaped by previous struggles for influence in Iraq between the U.S. and Iran, emerging warier of involvement in external conflict and more independent of external backers. The Iran-linked militias have also become central players in the Iraqi government, earning billions of dollars from state coffers, operating extensive business networks and holding more power than ever before. There is much at stake if these groups become a target, Middle East analysts say. 'These groups have become so integrated into the Iraqi state in one way or another, whether it's through business dealings, whether it is through politics. Why would these people give up on that?' asked Lahib Higel, Crisis Group's senior analyst for Iraq. Tensions may reach a point where the groups turn to violence, she said, 'but these groups are going to stay quiet for as long as they can.' The militias in Iraq have long been an important part of Iran's sprawling network across the region of allies and proxy forces, which also include Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. That formidable network was built by General Qasem Soleimani, who ran Iran's Quds Force, the division of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responsible for external operations, and whom President Donald Trump had assassinated in January 2020 in Baghdad. Unlike Hezbollah and the Houthis, Iraq's militias had already learned the lessons of direct confrontation with the U.S., experts say. The top Iraqi militia leader, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, was killed in the same drone strike as Soleimani, forcing other senior leaders into hiding as Iran and the U.S. traded ballistic missiles and airstrikes on Iraqi soil. Over the following years, the Iraqi militias adapted from top-down, Iranian-driven groups to ones with greater autonomy. 'The assassination of Soleimani and Muhandis removed a strong lever of control and influence that Iran had over several of these groups,' said Sajad Jiyad, a fellow at the New York-based Century International. 'Not having that Godfather figure has meant that these groups have charted their own path.' Iraq's official network of militia factions, known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, dates back to 2014, when tens of thousands of men across the mostly Shiite south answered calls from Iraq's prime minister and Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the country's top Shiite religious authority, to join the fight against Islamic State militants. Today, the groups are marbled through Iraq's ruling institutions and have become economic powerhouses and political enforcers of the political regime. Middle East analysts and Iraqi officials say Iraq has remained mostly aloof from the conflict pitting Israel and the U.S. against Iran because of shared interests between the armed groups and their Iranian backers. After the U.S. bombers transiting Iraqi airspace struck Iran's nuclear facilities, Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi militia that has previously targeted U.S. troops, issued only a muted statement, noting that Iraq's inability to control its airspace made the country vulnerable. 'The American forces in Iraq paved the way for this assault by opening Iraqi airspace,' the group said. 'If it is said that we do not want Iraq to be a battleground, then it is incumbent upon us to restrain the role of foreign forces present on Iraqi soil and controlling its skies.' Iraq's military said the following day that a swarm of small drones had targeted six army bases but reached only two, causing damage to radar systems at Camp Taji, north of Baghdad, and the Imam Ali base in Dhi Qar governorate, but no casualties. No U.S. forces were present at either one. The Iraqi army said in a statement that Prime Minister Mohammed Shiite al-Sudani had ordered an investigation into the incident, without ascribing blame to any group. The militias' tempered response reflects their desire not to be dragged into the sort of conflict that left Hezbollah eviscerated in Lebanon, said Higel. 'They don't want to face the same fate,' she said. 'However much they support Iran in rhetoric, we've seen the fissures. They had already started when Soleimani was killed, but they've really accelerated after the 7th of October' attacks in Israel. If their standing took a blow, it could put in jeopardy about $3.5 billion allocated in the Iraqi budget, according to the finance ministry, to pay militia salaries and provide other forms of support. Iran, similarly, benefits from the quiet next door. 'Iraq has remained outside the conflict primarily due to Iran's desire to keep it that way,' said a senior Iraqi official who, like some others interviewed for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive subject. 'They understand that Iraq's stability is extremely important to their national security and also to their economic situation.' As Western governments have sought to isolate Iran with sanctions, Iraq has become its economic lung. Iraq is not only a major trading partner, but Iran has used Iraqi currency exchanges to transfer money and Iraqi ports to mix and rebrand sanctioned oil products, according to researchers at the Chatham House international affairs think tank, providing Tehran with precious access to the international economy. Iraq has also provided safe haven to other Iran-backed groups as they come under fire, the researchers found. After Israel's killing of Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah in September, dozens of senior Hezbollah business figures traveled to Iraq, where the group had made significant financial investments. Jiyad, of Century International, said the pro-Iran armed groups are likely to remain on the sidelines for now. 'It may be that the Iranians see that as an option to deploy later,' he said. 'I think the Iranians are not trying to play all their cards at once.' Likewise, the senior Iraqi official said, these groups 'are Iran's last card.' An official with the pro-Iran Asaib al-Haq group, which has a role in the Iraqi government, said Iraq's armed factions remained braced in 'watchful anticipation.' This official said, 'We do not wish to be dragged into the war, although the resistance factions are ready to respond. … This will, however, depend on the course of events and the impact on our country.'
Yahoo
22-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
High Risk of Iranian Response, Says Crisis Group's Vaez
Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at conflict-resolution organization, Crisis Group, says that after the U.S. strikes, "an Iranian response is now inevitable." "The question is whether it results in a limited tit-for-tat or a disastrous regional conflagration.
Int'l Business Times
20-06-2025
- Politics
- Int'l Business Times
Mexico's Sheinbaum Claims Drop In Homicides, Experts Dubious
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has claimed a sharp drop in homicides in the first eight months of her term, but analysts wonder whether the figures are trustworthy and, if so, can keep coming down. Since Sheinbaum took over from party colleague Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador last October, official data shows murders in the cartel violence-riddled country dropping by a quarter to May. Partly driven by pressure from US President Donald Trump to curb drug trafficking and illegal north-bound migration, Sheinbaum has boosted intelligence and investigative capacity. She has deployed boots on the ground to flush out trouble makers -- a U-turn from her predecessor's "hugs, not bullets" approach to reducing poverty and other causes of violent crime while avoiding armed confrontations with criminal gangs. "The strategy is working," Sheinbaum told journalists last week. Sheinbaum in February deployed 10,000 national guardsmen to the northern border to crack down on drug trafficking and illegal migration. Thousands more troops were sent to violent states such as Sinaloa and Guanajuato to boost security. She has created new departments in the security secretariat, including a "National Intelligence System" tasked with detecting criminal networks and anticipating and preventing their misdeeds, as well as a body to streamline and coordinate police intelligence and investigations. "President Claudia Sheinbaum's security strategy refocused resources on combating organized crime and... this may be having an effect on the trend in intentional homicides," said Armando Vargas, coordinator of the security program at the Mexico Evalua think tank. David Mora of the Crisis Group research center pointed to a renewed focus on identifying violence hotspots and deploying forces there. Guanajuato state in central Mexico was a "perfect example," said Mora: with homicides there dropping by half under the new approach. Data from the security secretariat show there were 2,607 "intentional homicides" in Mexico last September -- Lopez Obrador's final month in office -- and 1,998 last month. The downward trend was not consistent, with jumps in the numbers some months, but calculated on an average, the government said it represented a 25.8 percent drop. Experts say rather than measuring the decrease from last September -- a particularly violent month -- one should compare year-on-year periods. Comparing homicide numbers for October 2024 to May 2025 with the same eight-month period a year earlier, there is also sees a declining trend. But it is much smaller one, with a seven percent drop, said Mora. "Reducing homicides by a quarter in six months would be unprecedented. And yet it is the narrative the government is promoting," he added. Vargas said the numbers did not include people reported missing, possibly dead -- another "method by which organized crime eliminates individuals." Killings whose motives are listed as "undetermined" are also left out of the tally. "There are several states with particularly high levels of undetermined causes (for homicides). Mexico City, Michoacan, Veracruz, for example," said Mora. Criminal violence has claimed more than 480,000 lives in Mexico since 2006. Some 120,000 people are officially missing, and mass graves are regularly unearthed. Mexico does not have a good track record in bringing wrongdoers to account: Some 90 percent of crimes are never punished. "The only thing that stops murderers from committing more murders is ensuring that they are punished," said Mora. According to Vargas, there are worrying signs in states like Chiapas and Tabasco, where conflict between drug gangs is escalating, and Sinaloa where even mass troop deployments have been unable to stop the violence of the cartel by the same name. Over 1,000 people have been killed in Sinaloa since September. Mexico still has by far one of the highest homicide rates in the world, comparable to those of countries at war. In May, gunmen shot dead an aide and an advisor to Mayor Clara Brugada in a rush hour double homicide on a busy avenue in the capital Mexico City. In the last week, two female mayors were assassinated in the states of Oaxaca and Michoacan. For Mora, it would be "a monumental mistake" to celebrate too soon. "The levels of homicidal violence remain alarming," he said. Mexico recorded 30,048 homicides in 2024. Most were cartel-related crimes. Un agent de la Garde nationale patrouille près de l'endroit où le maire de Tacambaro, Salvador Bastida, a éyé tué par des hommes armés avec son garde du corps à Tacambaro, dans l'Etat du Michoacan, dans l'ouest du Mexique, le 6 juin 2025. AFP
France 24
20-06-2025
- Politics
- France 24
Mexico's Sheinbaum claims drop in homicides, experts dubious
Since Sheinbaum took over from party colleague Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador last October, official data shows murders in the cartel violence-riddled country dropping by a quarter to May. Partly driven by pressure from US President Donald Trump to curb drug trafficking and illegal north-bound migration, Sheinbaum has boosted intelligence and investigative capacity. She has deployed boots on the ground to flush out trouble makers -- a U-turn from her predecessor's "hugs, not bullets" approach to reducing poverty and other causes of violent crime while avoiding armed confrontations with criminal gangs. "The strategy is working," Sheinbaum told journalists last week. How did she do it? Sheinbaum in February deployed 10,000 national guardsmen to the northern border to crack down on drug trafficking and illegal migration. Thousands more troops were sent to violent states such as Sinaloa and Guanajuato to boost security. She has created new departments in the security secretariat, including a "National Intelligence System" tasked with detecting criminal networks and anticipating and preventing their misdeeds, as well as a body to streamline and coordinate police intelligence and investigations. "President Claudia Sheinbaum's security strategy refocused resources on combating organized crime and... this may be having an effect on the trend in intentional homicides," said Armando Vargas, coordinator of the security program at the Mexico Evalua think tank. David Mora of the Crisis Group research center pointed to a renewed focus on identifying violence hotspots and deploying forces there. Guanajuato state in central Mexico was a "perfect example," said Mora: with homicides there dropping by half under the new approach. - Reliable stats?- Data from the security secretariat show there were 2,607 "intentional homicides" in Mexico last September -- Lopez Obrador's final month in office -- and 1,998 last month. The downward trend was not consistent, with jumps in the numbers some months, but calculated on an average, the government said it represented a 25.8 percent drop. Experts say rather than measuring the decrease from last September -- a particularly violent month -- one should compare year-on-year periods. Comparing homicide numbers for October 2024 to May 2025 with the same eight-month period a year earlier, there is also sees a declining trend. But it is much smaller one, with a seven percent drop, said Mora. "Reducing homicides by a quarter in six months would be unprecedented. And yet it is the narrative the government is promoting," he added. Vargas said the numbers did not include people reported missing, possibly dead -- another "method by which organized crime eliminates individuals." Killings whose motives are listed as "undetermined" are also left out of the tally. "There are several states with particularly high levels of undetermined causes (for homicides). Mexico City, Michoacan, Veracruz, for example," said Mora. Criminal violence has claimed more than 480,000 lives in Mexico since 2006. Some 120,000 people are officially missing, and mass graves are regularly unearthed. Can it be sustained? Mexico does not have a good track record in bringing wrongdoers to account: Some 90 percent of crimes are never punished. "The only thing that stops murderers from committing more murders is ensuring that they are punished," said Mora. According to Vargas, there are worrying signs in states like Chiapas and Tabasco, where conflict between drug gangs is escalating, and Sinaloa where even mass troop deployments have been unable to stop the violence of the cartel by the same name. Over 1,000 people have been killed in Sinaloa since September. Is there reason to celebrate? Mexico still has by far one of the highest homicide rates in the world, comparable to those of countries at war. In May, gunmen shot dead an aide and an advisor to Mayor Clara Brugada in a rush hour double homicide on a busy avenue in the capital Mexico City. In the last week, two female mayors were assassinated in the states of Oaxaca and Michoacan. For Mora, it would be "a monumental mistake" to celebrate too soon. "The levels of homicidal violence remain alarming," he said. © 2025 AFP
CNN
20-06-2025
- Politics
- CNN
‘The Iranian leadership has no good options,' says expert
Christiane Amanpour speaks with Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group about the options facing Iran's government after Israel's strikes.
