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Mid East Info
07-07-2025
- Business
- Mid East Info
Trade Deadlines, Market Sentiment, and U.S. Resilience: what to watch this week
By Daniela Sabin Hathorn, senior market analyst at As markets edge closer to a pivotal trade deadline, investors are weighing rumours, partial deals, and the potential for last-minute extensions. Amid these developments, optimism in U.S. equity markets remains strong—but so do the risks. Trade Talks: Progress or Posturing? The latest chatter suggests that the U.S. government may offer an extension to key trading partners in an effort to finalize agreements that, so far, have been more framework than formal deal. While just three trade deals have been publicly acknowledged, none have fully materialized. The lull in trade updates over the past six weeks may have stemmed from geopolitical distractions that shifted market focus elsewhere. However, with the deadline just two days away, attention is turning sharply back to trade negotiations. President Trump has indicated that letters to partners are being sent and that a slew of announcements could arrive shortly. Despite these signs, the situation remains fluid. Markets are pricing in optimism on the basis of three possibilities: A last-minute flurry of finalized deals. A formal extension period to allow continued negotiation. A hybrid outcome—some deals now, some extensions for others. Reports suggest Japan, South Korea, and parts of Europe are current sticking points. Market Sentiment: Sentiment in equity markets is currently buoyant. Investors are inclined to buy into news of successful deals or even a pause in hostilities, as this reduces market volatility. However, a surprise—similar to the sharp tariff hike on Liberation Day—could catch investors off guard. Back then, markets were expecting modest tariffs, but reality far exceeded expectations, leading to a sharp reaction. Treasury official Scott Bessing has added some clarity, saying that absent finalized deals, letters would be sent to notify trading partners of a reversion to April 2 tariff levels. This conditional approach adds another layer of complexity. Market reaction will hinge on which countries receive deals, and which face tariff reimpositions. Key trading partners like China, the EU, Canada, Japan, and Korea will be especially watched. Positive sentiment is likely to hold if these major players reach agreements—even if deals with smaller economies stall. Equities Performance: U.S. Leads, Europe and Asia Lag The U.S. equity markets continue to outshine their global counterparts. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have reached new highs. In contrast, European indices like the DAX 40 and FTSE 100, as well as Japan's Nikkei, have struggled. US 100 daily chart: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. This divergence reflects a broader return to U.S. market dominance, fuelled not just by geopolitics but by growth and earnings expectations. Reports indicate EU-U.S. negotiations have faltered, with no breakthrough over the weekend. An extension may be more realistic than a completed deal by the July 9 deadline. While trade dominates headlines, it's not the sole factor pushing U.S. markets higher. AI and tech sectors have had a significant impact as they have driven strong earnings growth, especially heading into earnings season. Despite trade uncertainties, stellar Q2 results from major tech firms have boosted investor confidence. Earnings per share from leading tech companies outpaced forecasts significantly. This resilience offsets some of the economic risks that would typically weigh on equities in a high-interest-rate environment. A key question is: How can equities thrive when interest rates remain high? This paradox hinges on the growth narrative. High rates generally reduce the present value of future cash flows, hurting valuations. However, when growth is strong, corporate earnings increase and offset this rate pressure. Strong labour market data—such as last week's jobs report—underscores this resilience in the U.S. economy. It's also important to note that bullishness in equities doesn't necessarily translate to bullishness in bonds. One can be optimistic about stocks while still bearish on long-term treasuries, expecting yields to rise further. The 'Big, Beautiful Bill' and Long-Term Risks: Recently passed legislation—dubbed the 'big, beautiful bill'—is expected to boost short-term growth. However, it also adds to the national debt, which could become a concern in the medium term. For now, markets are unfazed, viewing the bill as a pro-growth measure. But in the next six months, watch for sentiment shifts if debt servicing and structural deficits become more pressing. As the July 9 deadline looms, markets are hoping for extensions, partial agreements, or at least no nasty surprises. If deals with key partners come through—even at lower-than-expected tariff levels—positive sentiment is likely to persist. At the same time, investors would do well to keep an eye on the broader narrative. Resilient growth, tech-driven earnings, and U.S. market leadership are all crucial components of the current rally. But risks—from trade shocks to rising debt—still lurk. Stay tuned. The next 48 hours may be decisive.
Business Times
27-06-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Betting on local assets could pay off for Singapore investors: Deutsche Bank Private Bank CIO
[SINGAPORE] Investors in Singapore may want to allocate more funds to local assets, which appear resilient amid global economic uncertainty, said Deutsche Bank Private Bank global chief investment officer Christian Nolting on Friday (Jun 27). 'I think economically, (Singapore) is very nicely positioned', he said at a media briefing on the private bank's outlook for major economies and the various asset classes, as well as its recommended strategies for investors. Deutsche Bank's Singapore clients tend to hold 'very well diversified' portfolios with assets spread across global markets, but have limited investments locally, he noted. Although diversification is generally a positive strategy, investors in Singapore could consider increasing their allocation to domestic assets, he added. Singapore is less affected by US tariffs than other countries, facing only the baseline 10 per cent rate. This is 'very important' for a highly export-oriented economy, he said. He noted promising prospects for Singapore's real estate and stock markets. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Jason Liu, head of the CIO Office at Deutsche Bank Private Bank, described Singapore bank equities as 'very safe' assets in the current climate of global uncertainty, in that they offer a 'very good' dividend yield of over 5 percent. 'We have seen a lot of (capital) inflows since the beginning of the year,' he added. US dollar softens, equities may hold up Since the start of the year, there has been a considerable outflow of capital from the US – but this does not necessarily mean US assets will lose attractiveness, said Nolting. Given the euro's strengthening against the dollar, and turbulence in the yield of European treasuries, it is clear that there has been a flow of capital from the US into Europe, he said. A 'small amount of capital' is also moving to Asia, said Liu, noting the year-to-date appreciation of the Singapore dollar, Taiwan dollar and the Japanese yen relative to the US dollar. Nolting expects the capital outflow to continue, so the greenback could weaken a bit further over the next 12 months – but not collapse. 'I don't think there's a currency – at this point in time – which would replace the dollar,' he said. Furthermore, the expected weakness of the US dollar does not mean that other US assets will become less attractive, he added. The US continues to achieve stronger productivity growth than Europe, supporting its long-term investment appeal. The sheer size of the US market also allows it to absorb outflows while still delivering solid performance, he said. 'Even with some money flowing out, you can still have a nice performance, because it's so much larger.' To illustrate the disparity, Nolting noted that the total market capitalisation of Germany's DAX 40 blue-chip index is smaller than that of a single US tech giant such as Apple.
Yahoo
20-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
European shares show slight rise despite Iran-Israel crisis, while oil stays high
European shares showed a slight rise in early trading and oil prices remained high on Wednesday as investors tracked the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. US benchmark crude oil was down around 0.43% at $74.52 per barrel, while Brent, the international standard, slipped around 0.52% to $76.05, although both WTI and Brent remain high on the month. Crude prices rose more than 4% on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump left a Group of Seven summit in Canada early and warned that people in Iran's capital should evacuate immediately. Within about eight hours, Trump went from suggesting that a nuclear deal with Iran remained 'achievable' to urging Tehran's 9.5 million residents to flee for their lives. Iran and Israel continued to exchange airstrikes on Wednesday. The fighting has driven prices for crude oil and gasoline higher because Iran is a major oil exporter and it sits on the narrow Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the world's crude passes. Past conflicts in the area have caused spikes in oil prices, though they've historically proven brief after showing that they did not disrupt the flow of oil. European stocks, meanwhile, showed faintly positive trends in early trading. The DAX 40 was up around 0.11% at 23,461.41, the CAC 40 rose 0.29% to 7,706.08, the STOXX 600 was broadly flat, while the FTSE 100 rose 0.23% to 8,854.79. Related Israel-Iran crisis: How vital is the Strait of Hormuz for oil market? Trump demands Iran's 'unconditional surrender' again as conflict with Israel continues Earlier in the day, Asian stock markets showed a varied picture. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 jumped 0.78% to 38,837.48. Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1.17% to 23,698.65 while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.3% to 3,388.77. The Kospi in Seoul gained 0.54% to 2,966.20 while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.1% to 8,533.10. On Tuesday, US stocks slumped under the weight of higher oil prices and weaker than expected retail sales in May. Trump raised the temperature on Israel's fight with Iran by calling for 'Unconditional surrender!' on his social media platform and saying, 'We are not going to' kill Iran's leader, 'at least for now'. The S&P 500 fell 0.84% to 5,982.72 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.7% to 42,215.80. The Nasdaq composite fell 0.91% to 19,521.09. On early Wednesday morning in the US, S&P futures rose 0.11% to 5,991.50, Dow Jones futures increased less than 1% to 42,245.00, while Nasdaq futures advanced by 0.13% to 21,759.00. The markets will be looking to the Federal Reserve as it makes a decision on its interest rates today. The nearly unanimous expectation among traders and economists is that the Fed will make no move. In currency trading early on Wednesday, the US dollar fell 0.2% to 144.94 Japanese yen. The euro edged 0.18% higher, to $1.1502. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Economic Times
09-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Baker McKenzie appoints Sunny Mann as next Global Chair
Global law firm Baker McKenzie has elected Sunny Mann, head of its international trade practice group, as the firm's next Global Chair. He will take over the reins in October for a four-year term, succeeding Milton Cheng, who has led the firm since advises companies on compliance and investigations regarding export controls, trade sanctions and anti-bribery rules, working from London, New York and Washington also chairs Baker McKenzie's Geopolitical Risks Taskforce and oversaw the Firm's support to clients responding to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The team was at the forefront of the market, having advised around one quarter of each of the Fortune 100, FTSE 100, CAC 40 and DAX 40 communities on geopolitical disruption, including responding to the Russian invasion and the ongoing trade and tariff wars.'It is an immense privilege to have been elected by my fellow partners to the role of Global Chair in our great Firm. Over its 75 years' history, our Firm made its name supporting clients to navigate cross-border complexity,' said Sunny Mann, Firm Chair-Elect. 'Given the levels of change and market disruption we are now witnessing around the world, I am confident that with our unparalleled international reach, there is no firm better placed to support clients navigate the complex and turbulent demands of our current global climate,' he added. In his new role, Mann will be part of the firm's global management committee, which will see an expanded leadership structure effective 1 July 2025. The committee will include regional CEOs Alex Chadwick (EMEA), Colin Murray (Americas), and Steven Sieker (Asia Pacific), along with partners Scott Brandman, Amar Budarapu, Pamela Church, Matthew Dening, Andre Gan, Karen Guch, Isabella Liu and Christian Vocke, reflecting the firm's diverse global footprint. 'I am grateful to Milton, our current Chair, and the outgoing leadership team for their years of dedicated service. I very much look forward to working alongside the incoming Global Management Committee,' said Mann in a media release. 'Above all, I am excited to collaborate with my 13,000+ brilliant colleagues across over 70 offices globally, and it is this collective, pan-global strength that gives me great optimism for our future,' he added. The leadership transition comes at a time when global law firms are navigating an increasingly complex regulatory and geopolitical landscape, with clients seeking strategic legal counsel across jurisdictions. Baker McKenzie is among the world's largest law firms, with about $3.4 billion in gross revenue last year. The firm employs over 4,500 lawyers through the Swiss Verien model.
Time of India
09-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Baker McKenzie appoints Sunny Mann as next Global Chair
Global law firm Baker McKenzie has elected Sunny Mann , head of its international trade practice group, as the firm's next Global Chair . He will take over the reins in October for a four-year term, succeeding Milton Cheng, who has led the firm since 2019. Mann advises companies on compliance and investigations regarding export controls, trade sanctions and anti-bribery rules, working from London, New York and Washington D.C. He also chairs Baker McKenzie's Geopolitical Risks Taskforce and oversaw the Firm's support to clients responding to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The team was at the forefront of the market, having advised around one quarter of each of the Fortune 100, FTSE 100, CAC 40 and DAX 40 communities on geopolitical disruption, including responding to the Russian invasion and the ongoing trade and tariff wars. 'It is an immense privilege to have been elected by my fellow partners to the role of Global Chair in our great Firm. Over its 75 years' history, our Firm made its name supporting clients to navigate cross-border complexity,' said Sunny Mann, Firm Chair-Elect. 'Given the levels of change and market disruption we are now witnessing around the world, I am confident that with our unparalleled international reach, there is no firm better placed to support clients navigate the complex and turbulent demands of our current global climate,' he added. In his new role, Mann will be part of the firm's global management committee , which will see an expanded leadership structure effective 1 July 2025. The committee will include regional CEOs Alex Chadwick ( EMEA ), Colin Murray (Americas), and Steven Sieker (Asia Pacific), along with partners Scott Brandman , Amar Budarapu, Pamela Church, Matthew Dening, Andre Gan, Karen Guch, Isabella Liu and Christian Vocke, reflecting the firm's diverse global footprint. 'I am grateful to Milton, our current Chair, and the outgoing leadership team for their years of dedicated service. I very much look forward to working alongside the incoming Global Management Committee,' said Mann in a media release. 'Above all, I am excited to collaborate with my 13,000+ brilliant colleagues across over 70 offices globally, and it is this collective, pan-global strength that gives me great optimism for our future,' he added. The leadership transition comes at a time when global law firms are navigating an increasingly complex regulatory and geopolitical landscape, with clients seeking strategic legal counsel across jurisdictions. Baker McKenzie is among the world's largest law firms, with about $3.4 billion in gross revenue last year. The firm employs over 4,500 lawyers through the Swiss Verien model.
