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Mint
14-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Top three stocks to buy today—recommended by Ankush Bajaj for 14 July
The Indian stock market declined on Friday as selling pressure intensified across key sectors, dragging benchmark indices lower. Despite a few resilient stocks, the overall tone remained decisively negative, reflecting investor caution and broad-based profit booking after recent highs. The Nifty 50 managed to hold slightly above the 25,000 mark but still ended lower, settling at 25,149.85, down 205.40 points or 0.81%. The BSE Sensex saw a steep fall, losing 689.81 points or 0.83% to close at 82,500.47, as heavyweight stocks failed to offer any meaningful support. Top 3 Stocks Recommended by Ankush Bajaj for 14 July Buy: Bosch Ltd — Current Price: ₹36,525.00 The stock has shown resilience amid broader market weakness and is consistently holding above key moving averages on both daily and lower timeframes, which reinforces the strength of the current rally. Given the strong technical setup and the alignment of major momentum indicators, Bosch Ltd remains a strong candidate for short-term swing trades. Buy: Dabur India Ltd — Current Price: ₹530.85 Dabur has held up well despite broader market choppiness and continues to trade above short-term moving averages, confirming solid trend alignment. The stock recently broke out of a short-term consolidation phase and is now set up for a potential extension towards higher levels in the coming sessions. Buy: Laurus Labs Ltd — Current Price: ₹790.00 Price action remains robust, with the stock consistently holding above its key short-term moving averages, further confirming the strength of the current trend. The recent breakout from consolidation zones indicates that buyers are firmly in control, setting the stage for a potential continuation towards higher levels in the coming sessions. Market Wrap On Friday, July 11, 2025, the Indian stock market faced a sharp decline, as selling pressure intensified across key sectors, dragging benchmark indices lower. Despite a few resilient stocks, the overall tone remained decisively negative, reflecting investor caution and broad-based profit booking after recent highs. The Nifty 50 managed to hold slightly above the 25,000 mark but still ended lower, settling at 25,149.85, down 205.40 points or 0.81%. The BSE Sensex saw a steep fall, losing 689.81 points or 0.83% to close at 82,500.47, as heavyweight stocks failed to offer any meaningful support. The Bank Nifty, too, slipped 201.30 points or 0.35%, finishing at 56,754.70, signaling weakness in financials and limited participation from key banking names. Sectoral performance painted a grim picture. Auto fell by 0.80%, Oil & Gas dropped 0.67%, and Realty lost 0.63%, all contributing to the downward drag. Although defensives made a mild attempt to stabilize sentiment — with Pharma gaining 0.72%, FMCG up 0.42%, and Healthcare barely positive at 0.08% — their contribution wasn't enough to offset the broader market weakness. In stock-specific action, a few names managed to defy the downtrend. Hindustan Unilever jumped 4.62%, while SBI Life Insurance and Axis Bank rose 1.38% and 0.82%, respectively, supported by selective institutional buying. However, the dominant mood remained bearish, with heavyweights like TCS plunging 3.83%, M&M declining 2.82%, and Bajaj Auto falling 2.63%, all pointing toward heightened selling pressure Nifty Technical Analysis Daily & Hourly The Nifty ended Friday's session (11 July) on a distinctly weak note, closing at 25,149.85, down by 205.40 points or about 0.81%. The index opened with a gap-down and immediately slipped below its recent consolidation range of 25,300–25,600, confirming a breakdown that shifts the near-term bias firmly to the downside. With this move, the Nifty has breached its 20-day simple moving average (SMA), which stands at 25,265, and is now trading between the 20-DMA and the 40-day exponential moving average (EMA) placed at 25,009. This breakdown signals that any bounce back toward the 20-DMA is likely to be sold into, with traders now eyeing downside levels near 25,000 and 24,800 as potential targets. On the hourly chart, the weakness appears more pronounced. The index continues to trade below both its short-term 20-hour SMA at 25,348 and the 40-hour EMA at 25,363, indicating that intraday rallies are facing resistance and sellers are dominating short-term trades. The technical structure suggests that the recent consolidation has given way to a fresh leg lower, which could accelerate if support at the psychological 25,000 mark fails to hold. Momentum indicators paint a mixed but cautious picture. On the daily timeframe, the momentum indicator shows a positive crossover, which implies that medium-term strength is not fully broken yet. However, this signal is overshadowed by the sharp breakdown below the 20-DMA. On the hourly chart, momentum has clearly deteriorated — the indicator here shows a negative crossover, aligning with the price structure that favors bears in the very short term. Options data further reinforces the bearish bias. The total Call Open Interest (OI) is at 15.45 crore, significantly outweighing the Put OI of 8.50 crore, creating a net OI difference of about –6.95 crore. This indicates heavy call writing, which is a sign of strong resistance building overhead. Moreover, intraday changes show that Call OI jumped by 7.66 crore contracts while Put OI rose by only 3.06 crore contracts, widening the net bearish difference to –4.60 crore for the session. The maximum Call OI is concentrated at the 25,500 strike, with the largest addition at 25,300, which now acts as a firm resistance zone. On the downside, the 25,000 strike carries the highest Put OI and saw the most Put additions, highlighting it as a crucial support level in the near term. Volatility remains contained, but the market breadth tells a clear story of weakness. The advance-decline ratio on the NSE was sharply negative on Friday, with 1,040 stocks advancing against 1,901 declines, showing that sellers dominated across the broader market too. Although India VIX data wasn't updated here, no sharp volatility spike has yet appeared, suggesting the selling is orderly for now — but the breakdown in price action could trigger more volatility if key support zones give way. In summary, unless the Nifty quickly recovers and sustains above the 25,300–25,350 area, the near-term trend remains negative with a high probability of further downside toward 25,000 and potentially 24,800. Any rebound back toward the 20-DMA may offer traders an opportunity to sell, with strict stop-loss discipline. For now, the breakdown below the tight consolidation range and the clear bearish bias in the derivatives segment both point to short-term weakness dominating early next week's trade. Ankush Bajaj is a Sebi-registered research analyst. His registration number is INH000010441. Investments in securities are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by Sebi and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Mint
09-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Dabur India confident of FY26 recovery, driven by monsoon, macro factors
New Delhi: Fast-moving consumer goods companyDabur India Ltdexpects a turnaround in consumption trends by FY2025–26, backed by favourable macroeconomic indicators, a normal monsoon, continued government investment in infrastructure, and easing inflation. The firm is also betting big on premiumisation, deeper rural penetration, and digital consumer engagement to drive growth. "We have set an ambitious target to expand our rural footprint while sharpening our focus on urban markets by enhancing our portfolio of premium offerings and exploring adjacent categories to meet evolving consumer aspirations,' Mohit Burman, chairman, Dabur India Ltd, said in the company's annual report released Wednesday. Dabur ended FY2024-25 with a 3.6% jump in consolidated revenues to ₹ 12,563 crore, up from ₹ 12,404 crore a year ago; profit for the full year was down 4.1% to ₹ 1,768 crore. During the year, the company's advertising and publicity expenditure grew 2.2% to ₹ 864.6 crore. The company sells Dabur Red toothpaste, Vatika shampoo, Hajmola and Real drinks. "Our portfolio today includes three ₹ 1,000 crore brands—Dabur Amla, Dabur Red Toothpaste, and Real—alongside three ₹ 500 crore brands and 16 brands in the ₹ 100–500 crore 2024-25, we intensified our consumer engagement through interactive campaigns, community outreach, and digital initiatives that reinforced our commitment to health and well-being. These efforts enabled us to expand our market share across more than 90% of our portfolio, even during a consumption slowdown," he said. Last week, in its quarterly update, the company said its consolidated revenue in the June quarter is expected to grow in the low single digits due to a decline in beverages; consolidated operating profit growth is expected to marginally lag revenue growth. Dabur has yet to announce its Q1 (April-June) earnings. In the March quarter, the company's revenue from operations grew marginally. Last fiscal, the company expanded its retail footprint significantly, entering new villages and broadening its product range. 'Our retail reach is now among the widest in the Indian FMCG industry. A major milestone this year was the signing of a facilitation MoU with the Government of Tamil Nadu to establish our first manufacturing facility in South India. With an initial investment of ₹ 135 crore, scaling up to ₹ 400 crore over five years, this facility will generate direct employment for 250 individuals and create thousands of indirect job opportunities,' Burman said. During the year, the company also rationalised inventory in general trade channels, citing a shift in consumer behaviour with more shoppers buying goods online. This resulted in a temporary dip in Q2 (July-September) sales but strengthened the long-term health of its business and improved the RoI (return on investment) of its distributor partners. Dabur reported strong sales in rural India during the year, with demand outpacing urban India. The company draws a significant share of its business from rural markets. Meanwhile, earlier this year, the company announced a strategic vision to drive double-digit annual growth in both revenue and profit by FY28. The strategy is backed by a seven-pronged approach that includes investing heavily in core brands, expanding in premium categories, updating and modernising its product categories, shedding underperforming products, and aggressively pursuing acquisitions to build a 'future-fit' portfolio. 'Today, seven of our brands—Dabur Red, Real, Dabur Chyawanprash, Dabur Honey, Hajmola, Dabur Amla, Odonil, and Vatika—each contribute significantly to our revenues and together account for over 70% of our total portfolio. We are committed to scaling these brands exponentially,' said Burman. The company also announced plans to exit categories where scalability and profitability remain constrained, such as Vedic Tea, adult and baby diapers, and Dabur Vita; this will help unlock growth capital and sharpen focus. 'We will also be streamlining SKUs (stock keep units) across overlapping segments to reduce complexity in the supply chain and enhance distributor profitability,' he added. 'Our go-to-market transformation, strategic M&A focus, and operating model reinvention are designed to unlock new engines of value creation,' he added. During the year, the company expanded its share of the food business, with the category now contributing 6% of the revenue from its India FMCG business, up from 2% last year. It operates in the packaged ghee, spices, cooking pastes, and culinary products categories. Dabur competes with giants like Marico and Hindustan Unilever in the FMCG market. Notably, HUL has also expressed optimism about demand recovery, citing similar macro tailwinds like low inflation, a normal monsoon, and increased consumer spending.
Business Standard
07-07-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Quick Wrap: Nifty FMCG Index records a surge of 1.68%
Nifty FMCG index ended up 1.68% at 55652.85 today. The index has lost 0.00% over last one month. Among the constituents, Godrej Consumer Products Ltd jumped 6.33%, Dabur India Ltd rose 3.56% and Hindustan Unilever Ltd gained 3.04%. The Nifty FMCG index has decreased 4.00% over last one year compared to the 4.68% spike in benchmark Nifty 50 index. In other indices, Nifty Media index has slid 1.03% and Nifty IT index has dropped 0.76% on the day. In broad markets, the Nifty 50 increased 0.00% to close at 25461.3 while the SENSEX witnessed a rise of 0.01% to close at 83442.5 today.
Business Standard
07-07-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Godrej Consumer Products Ltd Spurts 5.65%
Godrej Consumer Products Ltd has added 4.11% over last one month compared to 1.26% fall in BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods index and 1.47% rise in the SENSEX Godrej Consumer Products Ltd gained 5.65% today to trade at Rs 1260.15. The BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods index is up 0.2% to quote at 20216.64. The index is down 1.26 % over last one month. Among the other constituents of the index, Bajaj Consumer Care Ltd increased 2.31% and Dabur India Ltd added 1.46% on the day. The BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods index went down 3.39 % over last one year compared to the 4.25% surge in benchmark SENSEX. Godrej Consumer Products Ltd has added 4.11% over last one month compared to 1.26% fall in BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods index and 1.47% rise in the SENSEX. On the BSE, 5364 shares were traded in the counter so far compared with average daily volumes of 7118 shares in the past one month. The stock hit a record high of Rs 1541.3 on 11 Sep 2024. The stock hit a 52-week low of Rs 979.75 on 04 Mar 2025.
Mint
06-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Patchy summer, shifting demand: Dabur, Marico, Godrej likely saw diverging fortunes in Q1 sales
New Delhi: Consumer goods makers Dabur India Ltd, Marico Ltd, and Godrej Consumer Products Ltd are expected to report contrasting demand patterns for their products in the June quarter, with robust sales in edible oils and home and personal care categories offset by a subdued summer for beverages. This divergence is largely attributed to untimely rains and a milder summer, hurting demand for seasonal categories. On Friday, homegrown consumer goods company Dabur India said that the Indian FMCG sector saw a sequential recovery in demand in the June quarter, with an uptick in volume growth particularly in urban markets. Dabur's home and personal care (HPC) division is expected to perform well, driven by its oral, home and skin care categories. The beverage portfolio was impacted due to unseasonal rains and a brief summer. On account of decline in beverages, Dabur's consolidated revenue is expected to grow in low single digits. Consolidated operating profit growth is expected to marginally lag revenue growth. The company sells brands such as Dabur Red toothpaste, Dabur Honey, Hajmola, and Dabur Honitus. Volume growth Godrej Consumer Products said that its standalone business is likely to deliver high-single digit value growth in the first quarter of the ongoing fiscal year on the back of mid-single digit underlying volume growth (UVG). At a consolidated level, we expect double-digit revenue growth on the back of high-single digit underlying volume growth. Underlying volume growth is a key business metric, particularly in consumer goods sector, that measures the actual increase in the number of goods sold. It focuses only on volume, without taking into consideration price changes. Volume growth has been strongly competitive and is sequentially improving, the company said in its quarterly update on Friday. Standalone Ebitda margin in Q1FY26 is likely to be below its normative range but is expected to improve, the company added. While palm oil prices have started easing towards the end of June, benefits of this moderation will only be realized in H2FY26, the company added in its quarterly update to the exchanges. The company's home care business has had a broad-based growth trajectory with the business likely to deliver double-digit value growth and UVG increase. Personal care business is expected to grow value in low-single digit impacted by soaps. Standalone business excluding soaps (which is seeing a price-volume rebalancing driven by commodity volatility) is expected to deliver a very strong performance this quarter with double-digit UVG. Edible oil maker Marico on Thursday said its India business is expected to report 'multi-quarter high" volume growth in Q1, benefiting from import duty reduction on vegetable oils. 'During the quarter, the sector exhibited consistent demand patterns, marked by improving trends in rural markets and steady urban sentiment. We expect gradual improvement in the quarters ahead, supported by easing inflation, a favourable monsoon season and policy stimulus," Marico said in its update for the June quarter released Thursday evening. The company's underlying volume growth in the India business continued to improve sequentially to reach a multi-quarter high. Marico's consolidated revenue growth on a year-on-year basis stood in the low twenties, marking a strong start towards delivering double-digit growth on a full-year basis. Its leading edible oil brand Saffola posted a healthy performance with revenue growth in the high twenties, backed by mid-single digit volume growth. The brand has 'proactively" passed on the benefit of the recent import duty reduction on vegetable oils to consumers. Meanwhile, its Parachute oil portfolio reported marginal dip in volumes due to high input cost and pricing conditions, it said in its update. In June this year, the Centre reduced the basic customs duty (BCD) on crude edible oils—crude sunflower, soybean, and palm oils from 20% to 10%. This decision came after the sharp rise in edible oil prices following last year's import tax hike in September. The increase led to significant inflationary pressure on consumers, with retail edible oil prices soaring and contributing to rising food inflation. Marico reported continued inflation in copra prices due to unseasonal rains, while vegetable oil prices dropped after import duty cuts, and crude oil derivatives stayed stable. Consequently, the company expects increased pressure on gross margins in the short term, but expects this to ease from the second half of the fiscal year. Analysts said monthly and quarterly inflationary trends remained 'benign" for consumer staple companies, except for copra and tea prices, suggesting a gradual uptick in demand as well as easing of pressure on gross margins. Month-on-month and quarter-on-quarter inflationary trends suggest a benign environment for Marico's raw material basket except for brent crude (up 12.2% month-on-month but still down 20.2% year-on-year) and copra (up 24.1%—18.7% quarter-on-quarter—month-on-month in 1QFY26 leading to over 90% inflation year-on-year), analysts at Yes Securities said in a report released on 2 July. The brokerage said its internal consumer staples raw material inflation index reported an uptick in May 2025, up 3.4% year-on-year, led by oil seeds (including copra) and menthol, despite lower crude prices. 'Even while geopolitical tensions lifted palm oil on a month-on-month basis, both palm oil and PFAD (palm fatty acid distillate) are still down quarter-on-quarter. Agri inputs were mixed, with quarter-on-quarter softening in wheat, maize and cocoa, but copra and tea prices remain firm. Tobacco leaf prices are under pressure due to oversupply but the government is intervening," it added. The fast-moving consumer goods industry reported an 11% year-on-year value growth in the March quarter, driven by a 5.1% volume increase and a 5.6% price hike, according to NielsenIQ. While overall inflation is easing, high edible oil prices kept the basket of staples expensive, resulting in higher value growth. However, edible oil prices are now stabilizing. Most companies have pointed to a recovery in demand in the second half of the year, led by favourable monsoons and tax benefits announced in this year's budget that raised exemption limit and revised personal income tax slabs. 'A meaningful and broad-based margin recovery appears more likely from 2HFY26, contingent on price stability across commodities and favourable monsoon progress," said analysts at Equirus Securities. Softening wheat, maize, and barley prices support margin stability for food players like Britannia, ITC, and Mrs Bectors Food.
