Latest news with #DaiwaCapitalMarkets
Daily Mail
5 days ago
- Business
- Daily Mail
Housing market will continue to crumble this year, experts warn
The housing market is set to get even worse this year, experts have warned in the latest dire forecast. New research from Oxford Economics found that the already‑frozen market is barely holding steady — and conditions are expected to deteriorate further. 'The supply of existing homes for sale is approaching pre-pandemic levels as a combination of high prices, elevated mortgage rates, and concerns over the labor market keep buyers sidelined,' Oxford Economics analyst Mathew Martin said. 'The new-home market is also being challenged, with builders continuing to offer incentives including price cuts in an effort to move unsold inventory,' Martin wrote in the report titled 'Recession Monitor – Real test for economy is just beginning.' Thirty‑year mortgage rates will average 6.7 percent across 2025 and end the year at around 6.4 percent. That is slightly higher than previous forecasts. Median home prices have jumped 52 percent since May 2019, far outpacing wage growth of just 30 percent, NAR data shows. That would mark the lowest level since 1995, according to the National Association of Realtors. Buyers have been scared off by a rocky economy, surging HOA fees, and punishing mortgage and insurance rates, leaving sellers slashing prices to lure offers. 'A longstanding lack of inventory has supported both high prices and sluggish sales in the market for existing homes,' analysts Lawrence Werther and Brendan Stuart from Daiwa Capital Markets wrote in a report published earlier this week. 'Substantial improvement is unlikely to materialize in the near term until mortgage rates (and/or prices) ease, thereby mitigating the current affordability challenges faced by potential buyers,' they explained. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, agreed, arguing that 'multiple years of undersupply are driving the record high home price. Home construction continues to lag population growth.' 'This is holding back first-time home buyers from entering the market.' Despite the frozen market, economists do not predict a correction in home prices but conversely see them rising 2.5 percent through 2025. This is largely driven by sellers who refuse to drop their asking price and are instead pulling their homes off the market in droves. Others have been forced to slash their asking prices and accept a more reasonable offer in the current uncertain market. More than 20 percent of listed homes had price reductions in June, the highest share for the month since 2016. Phoenix, Arizona, is at the epicenter of the delistings trend, seeing more homes pulled from the market than any other area. Economists believe this is because areas in the South and West have seen inventory hit pre-pandemic levels but prices remaining flat or are even falling. Last week, Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi issued a 'red flare' warning for the housing market and cautioned that it could drag down the entire economy. 'I sent off a yellow flare on the housing market in a post a couple of weeks ago, but I now think a red flare is more appropriate,' Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi wrote on X.
South China Morning Post
10-07-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
China's polysilicon prices surge on hope about solar-panel competition curbs
Prices in China for polysilicon – the key component in photovoltaic solar panels – jumped by the most in almost two years, as a broad pledge by the country's top leadership to curb competition among businesses boosted optimism for the solar-panel industry While the vow by Beijing last week did not specify sectors, there was some speculation that solar panels would be included in the government campaign. Polysilicon prices rose between 6.3 per cent and 6.9 per cent in the week through Wednesday, according to data from an industry association, the most since August 2023. China's solar industry is grappling with overcapacity and fierce competition , and a slew of measures since late last year to reduce output and set a price floor have so far failed to halt losses. A new policy also came into effect at the start of June that removed pricing protections on solar projects. 'We believe the target from the government is just to end the price war, not to help the industry's average selling price to recover,' said Dennis Ip, an analyst at Daiwa Capital Markets. 'And we believe the market has not realised that.' The nation's polysilicon sector still needed a 'critical stage' of deep adjustment and capacity liquidation, according to the China Silicon Industry Association, which provides data on prices. The group said the most expensive N-type material was priced at 37,100 yuan (US$5,169) per ton, the highest since June 4. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also held a meeting with 14 solar companies last week, pledging to strengthen its guidance for the industry to help solve its 'urgent problems', according to a statement. The gathering, which was attended by Minister Li Lecheng, added to optimism about government measures to address overcapacity.
Arabian Post
14-06-2025
- Business
- Arabian Post
Regional Markets Reel Amid Israel‑Iran Escalation
Arabian Post Staff -Dubai Markets across the Gulf and beyond plunged on Friday following a sharp military escalation after Israel struck Iranian nuclear and military sites, triggering drone counter‑attacks by Iran and a broader risk‑off reaction among investors. Dubai's benchmark index tumbled 5.1%, its steepest single‑day loss since May 2022, while Abu Dhabi's dropped 3.5% before paring losses. The rout extended into Israel, where the shekel slid as much as 3.5% against the dollar, with long‑dated Israeli bonds and select regional government debt also weakening. ADVERTISEMENT Commodity markets mirrored investor anxiety. Brent crude surged over 6%, touching its highest level in nearly five months, as traders assessed the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Gold likewise rallied, reaching two‑month highs as capital flowed into safe‑haven assets. Airline stocks were among the hardest hit. Air Arabia shares plunged more than 4%—some reports suggest nearly 8%—as carriers rerouted flights away from airspace over Iran, Israel, Iraq and Jordan. Regional exchanges in Riyadh and Doha were closed on Friday, with trading set to resume on Sunday amid anticipation of continued volatility. The market shockwaves reverberated worldwide. Europe, Asia and US indices all registered dips: the S&P 500 dropped roughly 0.4% mid‑day, the Dow slipped nearly 1.8% and the Nasdaq around 1.3%, while Tokyo's Nikkei and Hong Kong's Hang Seng also declined. Analysts warned that while markets historically absorb such shocks fairly quickly, the sustained threat of conflict brings inflation and growth risks. Chris Scicluna of Daiwa Capital Markets noted the initial oil spike 'hasn't been too extreme' but cautioned that a sustained rise toward US $80 oil would be problematic for central banks. Meanwhile, Tariq Kakish of FH Capital pointed out that geopolitical instability remains 'the key factor affecting investors' sentiments'. Concerns centred on the Strait of Hormuz, which channels approximately one‑third of global seaborne oil, raising the potential for disruption. Demand for insurance on tankers in the Gulf surged, and traders remain on edge over possible Iranian retaliation targeting shipping or oil infrastructure. However, OPEC+ sources suggest that Saudi Arabia and others retain sufficient spare capacity and are monitoring the situation closely. Financial markets also showed classic risk‑off behaviour: US Treasury bonds rallied even as yields ticked higher, reflecting investor concerns about energised inflation, as per Axios commentary. The dollar strengthened, while gold and the Swiss franc benefited from increased flight‑to‑safety demand. In Asia, the ASX 200 slipped modestly, offsetting losses in financials and consumer sectors with gains in energy and mining stocks. In Mumbai, Reliance Industries' shares fell nearly 1.8% as Brent crude surged past $75 per barrel amidst the tensions. Political and economic analysts emphasise two themes: the possibility of an enduring inflation shock from energy price escalation, and the risk of prolonged conflict dragging in wider regional powers. While some argue Gulf states may help mitigate supply-side shocks via increased production, others highlight that even modest increases in oil prices could influence global inflation and central bank policy. Despite the turbulence, multiple analysts noted past flare‑ups between Israel and Iran tended to cool within weeks, with markets rebounding once diplomatic pathways re‑opened. Yet this episode differs: it involves overt attacks deep into Iranian territory, targeting nuclear and ballistic infrastructure, and marking a new phase in the conflict. The outcome may recalibrate norms for military engagement in the region—and investor expectations alongside them.
Globe and Mail
13-06-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Premarket: Stocks tumble, oil prices jump after Israel attacks Iran
World stock markets tumbled on Friday and oil prices surged as Israel launched a military strike on Iran, sparking a rush into safe havens such as gold, dollar and Swiss franc. An escalation in the Middle East - a major oil-producing region - adds uncertainty to financial markets at a time of heightened pressure on the global economy from U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive and erratic trade policies. Market reaction was swift. Crude oil jumped as much as 14 per cent at one point to almost US$79 a barrel, before pulling back to about US$74 - still up more than 5 per cent on the day and set for the biggest one-day jump since 2022. West Texas Intermediate futures rose more than US$5 to US$73.14. Gold, a classic safe-haven at times of global uncertainty, rose to US$3,416 per ounce, bringing it close to the record high of $3,500.05 from April. The rush to safety was matched by a dash out of risk assets. U.S. stock futures fell over 1.5 per cent, European shares dropped 1 per cent at the open and in Asia, major bourses in Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong fell over 1 per cent each. 'Clearly the big question is how far does this go?,' said Chris Scicluna, head of economic research at Daiwa Capital Markets in London, referring to the Middle East tension. 'The market has got it right in terms of stocks down, oil and gold up.' Israel launched wide scale strikes against Iran, saying it targeted nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders during the start of a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon. Iran had launched about 100 drones toward Israeli territory in retaliation, which Israel is working to intercept, an Israeli military spokesman said. Washington said it was not involved in the Israeli offensive. The developments mean another major geopolitical tail risk has now become a reality at a time when investors are wrestling with major shifts in U.S. economic and trade policies. 'The geopolitical escalation adds another layer of uncertainty to already fragile sentiment,' said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, adding that crude oil and safe-haven assets will remain on an upward trajectory if tensions continue to intensify. The Israeli shekel fell almost 2 per cent and long-dated dollar bonds for Israel, Egypt and Pakistan slipped. U.S. Treasuries were bought in the rush for safer assets, sending the yield on 10-year notes to a one-month low of 4.31 per cent. Bond yields move inversely to prices. Germany's 10-year bond yield touched its lowest level since early March at around 2.42 per cent. Daiwa's Scicluna said a further push higher in oil prices could dampen expectations for central bank rate cuts. 'The ultimate response in bond markets to geopolitics is going to depend on how sharp the rise in energy prices is going to be,' he said. Some traders were attracted to the dollar as a haven, with the dollar index up 0.6 per cent to 98.277, retracing most of Thursday's sizeable decline. Still, the U.S. dollar is down 1 per cent for the week in a sign that sentiment towards the greenback remains bearish. The Swiss franc briefly touched its strongest level against the dollar since April 21, before trading 0.2 per cent lower at around 0.8118 per dollar. Fellow safe haven the Japanese yen edged down 0.2 per cent to 143.79 per dollar, giving up earlier gains of 0.3 per cent. The euro was down 0.4 per cent at US$1.1534, after rising on Thursday to the highest since October 2021. Sterling slipped 0.4 per cent to US$1.3556, after marking a fresh high since February 2022 at US$1.3613 early in the day. 'Traders are now on edge over the prospects of a full-blown Middle East conflict,' said Matt Simpson, a senior market analyst at City Index. 'That will keep uncertainty high and volatility elevated.' - Reuters
CNA
13-06-2025
- Business
- CNA
Stocks tumble, oil prices jump after Israel attacks Iran
LONDON :World stock markets tumbled on Friday and oil prices surged as Israel launched a military strike on Iran, sparking a rush into safe havens such as gold, dollar and Swiss franc. An escalation in the Middle East - a major oil-producing region - adds uncertainty to financial markets at a time of heightened pressure on the global economy from U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive and erratic trade policies. Market reaction was swift. Crude oil jumped as much as 14 per cent at one point to almost $79 a barrel, before pulling back to around $74 - still up more than 5 per cent on the day and set for the biggest one-day jump since 2022. U.S. oil futures rose over $5 t0 $73.14. Gold, a classic safe-haven at times of global uncertainty, rose to $3,416 per ounce, bringing it close to the record high of $3,500.05 from April. The rush to safety was matched by a dash out of risk assets. U.S. stock futures fell over 1.5 per cent, European shares dropped 1 per cent at the open and in Asia, major bourses in Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong fell over 1 per cent each. "Clearly the big question is how far does this go?," said Chris Scicluna, head of economic research at Daiwa Capital Markets in London, referring to the Middle East tension. "The market has got it right in terms of stocks down, oil and gold up." Israel launched wide scale strikes against Iran, saying it targeted nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders during the start of a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon. Iran had launched about 100 drones towards Israeli territory in retaliation, which Israel is working to intercept, an Israeli military spokesman said. Washington said it was not involved in the Israeli offensive. The developments mean another major geopolitical tail risk has now become a reality at a time when investors are wrestling with major shifts in U.S. economic and trade policies. "The geopolitical escalation adds another layer of uncertainty to already fragile sentiment," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, adding that crude oil and safe-haven assets will remain on an upward trajectory if tensions continue to intensify. The Israeli shekel fell almost 2 per cent and long-dated dollar bonds for Israel, Egypt and Pakistan slipped. SAFE-HAVEN RUSH U.S. Treasuries were bought in the rush for safer assets, sending the yield on 10-year notes to a one-month low of 4.31 per cent. Bond yields move inversely to prices. Germany's 10-year bond yield touched its lowest level since early March at around 2.42 per cent. Daiwa's Scicluna said a further push higher in oil prices could dampen expectations for central bank rate cuts. "The ultimate response in bond markets to geopolitics is going to depend on how sharp the rise in energy prices is going to be," he said. Some traders were attracted to the dollar as a haven, with the dollar index up 0.6 per cent to 98.277, retracing most of Thursday's sizeable decline. Still, the dollar is down 1 per cent for the week in a sign that sentiment towards the greenback remains bearish. The Swiss franc briefly touched its strongest level against the dollar since April 21, before trading 0.2 per cent lower at around 0.8118 per dollar. Fellow safe haven the Japanese yen edged down 0.2 per cent to 143.79 per dollar, giving up earlier gains of 0.3 per cent. The euro was down 0.4 per cent at $1.1534, after rising on Thursday to the highest since October 2021. Sterling slipped 0.4 per cent to $1.3556, after marking a fresh high since February 2022 at $1.3613 early in the day. "Traders are now on edge over the prospects of a full-blown Middle East conflict," said Matt Simpson, a senior market analyst at City Index.
