25-06-2025
US muscle flexing - World - Al-Ahram Weekly
Last week's US strikes against three nuclear sites in Iran likely left most of the country's stockpile of enriched uranium intact
Last Sunday, the US started Operation Midnight Hammer and employed a strike force consisting of 125 aircraft, including seven B-2 strategic bombers from the 340th Air Wing, to embark on a 37-hour mission from a base in the United States towards Iran.
The formation passed through Syrian and Iraqi airspace, and six bombers dropped 12 GBU-57 bombs on the Fordow nuclear site in Iran, while one bomber dropped two bombs on the Natanz reactor. Simultaneously, the submarine USS Georgia launched 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles against nuclear facilities in Natanz and Isfahan.
Following the strikes, the US formation regrouped over the Mediterranean Sea heading towards Gibraltar. The mission was refuelled by 40 tanker aircraft.
According to General Dan Cain, the US chief of staff, refuelling planes were sent westwards as a diversion, while the bombers approached from the east. A total of 75 different munitions were employed – 30 Tomahawk missiles, 14 GBU-57 bombs, and additional munitions reportedly launched preemptively to neutralise potential air defence systems configured for ambush tactics.
These preemptive munitions were fired from fighter escorts to secure the strike corridor.
Based on satellite imagery captured the next day of the Fordow facility, clear damage was observed at two key points within the site. Each location sustained three direct hits, targeting the main underground entrances and the facility's ventilator system.
Military sources speaking to the US network Fox News added that the underground nuclear complex in Isfahan was deeper and more fortified than previously estimated and may not have been completely destroyed during the early morning raids.
Satellite imagery captured over the past two days revealed intense logistical activity near the Fordow facility, involving 16 trucks operating specifically around the facility's main entrance. These trucks were later seen leaving the site and heading towards an undisclosed location.
This aligns with reports from several news agencies suggesting that there had been a prior evacuation of the targeted sites, with 'most' of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile reportedly relocated to secure locations.
Senior US officials told the New York Times that they do not know the whereabouts of Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium. According to reports, Iran moved approximately 400 kg of 60 per cent enriched uranium, just below weapons-grade, before the US strikes.
If these are further enriched to 90 per cent, or weapons-grade, this quantity would be theoretically sufficient to produce 16 tactical nuclear warheads, given that 25 kg of weapons-grade uranium is generally enough for one warhead. Alternatively, 64 kg of 80 per cent enriched uranium could produce a similar yield, according to estimates by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
However, the critical question remains: where could Iran accelerate the required enrichment process following the destruction of the Fordow facility, especially if it possesses another undeclared enrichment site in an unknown location or could ask for help from its allies?
The day after the US intervention, Iran launched a limited missile strike consisting of six missiles targeting Udeid Air Base in Qatar and one missile aimed at the Ain Al-Asad Air Base in Iraq.
US air defences successfully intercepted the attacks using Patriot PAC-3 MSE systems, an advanced variant specifically enhanced to counter medium-range ballistic missiles and even hypersonic threats. This version of the PAC-3 incorporates upgrades developed from lessons learned in the Russia-Ukraine War, particularly regarding interception timing, radar tracking, and kinetic kill accuracy.
After the Iranian attacks, US President Donald Trump stated that 'I am pleased to report that NO Americans were harmed, and hardly any damage was done. Most importantly, they've gotten it all out of their 'system,' and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE. I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured.'
The US intervention in the conflict between Israel and Iran was deemed necessary to attempt to end the conflict and provide critical guarantees to the Israeli side, particularly concerning Iran's nuclear programme, which, however, was only contained and delayed and not eliminated.
According to a writer for the UK-based site Amwaj media speaking on condition of anonymity, a high-ranking Iranian political source confirmed that the Trump administration on 21 June conveyed to Iran that it did not seek an all-out confrontation and only intended to strike the Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz sites.
The message is said to have been delivered by a third party. Importantly, the source also confirmed that the targeted sites were evacuated, with 'most' of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium kept in secure locations.
The Israeli-Iranian conflict is a prime example of modern warfare between Eastern and Western doctrines. Without a doubt, the biggest beneficiaries are Russia, China, and the US due to the potential for engagement in future conflicts that are likely to involve systems similar to those used in this one.
The conflict has proven that one of the most critical factors in determining the victory is who possesses logistical support and qualitative superiority during the military operations, both to compensate for losses, on the one hand, and to deliver the most effective operational strikes against the opponent on the other.
Initially, Iran relied on the principle of saturation missile fire to create confusion. Through exercises involving massive salvos of missiles (200+), Iran attempted to overwhelm Israel's defence systems, which led to some missiles reaching high-value civilian and military targets such as the Soroka Medical Centre and the Weizmann Institute of Science, a major command centre (Kiryat), and the Nevatim Airbase, even if most were intercepted or their potential damage was minimised.
In response, the Israeli Air Force employed a successful strategy of 'interdicting the adversary's reserves,' also known as Air Interdiction. Aircraft flew in formations within Iranian airspace searching for ballistic missile batteries, conducting Dynamic Targeting (DT) and Time-Sensitive Targeting (TST) missions to reduce the offensive capability of the Iranian military and Revolutionary Guard and to curb missile-launch density.
Iran adapted by alternating the warheads of its missiles; for example, if a missile contained a Maneuverable Reentry Vehicle (MRV) capable of manoeuvering during the final attack phase, or if the warhead carried submunitions in a cluster configuration, interception would become significantly more difficult or even virtually impossible.
The Iranian side also managed to reach deep into Israeli territory using drones. This prompted the deployment of numerous Israeli helicopters and fighter jets to intercept these threats. The tactic involved sending drones towards both the south and the north of the country, marking a significant shift in strategy.
This change indicates an attempt by the Iranian forces to adapt operationally to match the defensive capabilities of their adversary and to monitor its performance, while simultaneously posing serious risks to Israeli Air Defence systems and airbases.
However, drone strikes may have more of a psychological impact than an operational one. It is difficult to rely on them as a primary strategy, as it requires a large number of drones to effectively target air defence radars.
On the other hand, current estimates suggest that Israel's daily cost for missile interception could reach up to $200 million. Thus, the financial burden, along with the depletion of interceptor missiles, poses a significant challenge for the Israeli military. This is despite a previous report noting that Washington has begun replenishing interceptor missiles for the THAAD air-defence systems.
US arms-control expert Jeffrey Lewis explained on his X site account that the strikes were 'tactically brilliant but may turn out to be strategic failures. Yes, the strikes on the enrichment plants at Qom (Fordow) and Natanz appear successful. But there has been no effort to strike the enormous underground facility next to Natanz where Iran can make more centrifuges and maybe do other things.'
'In 2022, Iran moved a centrifuge production line to 'the heart of the mountain' there. This facility is huge – we estimated 10,000 m2 or more – and we don't really know what else it might house (like enrichment or conversion).'
'We ought to judge this strike by its real purpose, not the legal camouflage of preemptive self-defence. If the strike leaves the current regime, or something very much like it, in power with a nuclear option then it will have been a strategic failure.'
Trump announced the end of the so-called 12-day war by writing 'Congratulations to everyone!' on his social media account.
'It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total Ceasefire. I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, 'The 12-day war.' This is a w ar that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn't, and never will.'
The B-2 Spirit
The B-2 Spirit, used in the US strikes against Iran, is a fifth-generation strategic bomber with a flying wing design. It has no traditional fuselage or tail, just a sleek, continuous wing structure.
This design significantly reduces its radar cross-section to be like a baseball, making it incredibly stealthy, and improves aerodynamic efficiency for long-range missions.
It participated in the Kosovo War (Operation Allied Force) in 1999, the Afghanistan conflict (Operation Enduring Freedom) in 2001, the invasion of Iraq (Operation Iraqi Freedom) in 2003, the attacks on Libya (Operation Odyssey Dawn) in 2011, and the Operation Midnight Hammer that deployed GBU-57 bombs for use against Iran.
Number built: 21
Entered service: 1 January 1997
Wing Area: 478 m2
Max speed: 0.95 Mach (1,010 Km/h)
Combat range: 5,500 Km
Armaments: 60,000 lb (2x 30,000 lb GBU-57 bomb), (16 B-61 nuclear bombs), (16 x 2,000 lb GBU-31) and (16 x AGM-186 cruise missiles).
* A version of this article appears in print in the 26 June, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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