Latest news with #DanielleHale
Daily Mail
5 hours ago
- Business
- Daily Mail
Housing market set to plunge to a 30-year low
Home sales are set to plunge to a 30-year low — with experts warning the slump could deepen into a full‑blown collapse. Just four million transactions are expected in the US this year, according to new data from That would mark the lowest level since 1995, according to the National Association of Realtors. Buyers have been scared off by a rocky economy, surging HOA fees, and punishing mortgage and insurance rates, leaving sellers slashing prices to lure offers. 'Even with more homes on the market, buyer response has remained muted compared to what we'd expect from similar supply shifts in the past,' chief economist Danielle Hale said of the shocking figures. Thirty‑year mortgage rates will average 6.7 percent across 2025 and end the year at around 6.4 percent. That is slightly higher than previous forecasts. Median home prices have jumped 52 percent since May 2019, far outpacing wage growth of just 30 percent, NAR data shows. Despite the frozen market, economists do not predict a correction in home prices but conversely see them rising 2.5 percent through 2025. This is largely driven by sellers who refuse to drop their asking price and are instead pulling their homes off the market in droves. Others have been forced to slash their asking prices and accept a more reasonable offer in the current uncertain market. More than 20 percent of listed homes had price reductions in June, the highest share for the month since 2016. Phoenix, Arizona, is at the epicenter of the delistings trend, seeing more homes pulled from the market than any other area. Economists believe this is because areas in the South and West have seen inventory hit pre-pandemic levels but prices remaining flat or are even falling. Last week Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi issued a 'red flare' warning for the housing market and cautioned that it could drag down the entire economy. 'I sent off a yellow flare on the housing market in a post a couple of weeks ago, but I now think a red flare is more appropriate,' Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi wrote on X. A 'red flare' warning suggests the market is experiencing major instability and a fall is imminent. 'Home sales are already uber depressed,' Zandi wrote. 'Housing will thus soon be a full-blown headwind to broader economic growth, adding to the growing list of reasons to be worried about the economy's prospects later this year and early next.'
Daily Mail
8 hours ago
- Business
- Daily Mail
Housing market flashes fresh red alert as key signal crashes to 30‑year low
Home sales are set to plunge to a 30-year low — with experts warning the slump could deepen into a full‑blown collapse. Just four million transactions are expected in the US this year, according to new data from That would mark lowest level since 1995, according to the National Association of Realtors. Buyers have been scared off by a rocky economy, surging HOA fees, and punishing mortgage and insurance rates, leaving sellers slashing prices to lure offers. 'Even with more homes on the market, buyer response has remained muted compared to what we'd expect from similar supply shifts in the past,' chief economist Danielle Hale said of the shocking figures. The South and West have seen the biggest jump in homes for sale, but prices remain unaffordable. Meanwhile, the Northeast and Midwest are still tight markets with steadier activity. Thirty‑year mortgage rates will average 6.7 percent across 2025 and end the year at around 6.4 percent. That is slightly higher than previous forecasts. Median home prices have jumped 52 percent since May 2019, far outpacing wage growth of just 30 percent, NAR data shows. 'The doubling in the monthly payment for a new set of buyers is hindering the market condition,' said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. Before the pandemic, a typical monthly payment on a home was roughly $1,000; now it's closer to $2,000. Despite the frozen market, economists do not predict a correction in home prices but conversely see them rising 2.5 percent through 2025. This is largely driven by sellers who refuse to drop their asking price and are instead pulling their homes off the market in droves. Others have been forced to slash their asking prices and accept a more reasonable offer in the current uncertain market. More than 20 percent of listed homes had price reductions in June, the highest share for the month since 2016. Phoenix, Arizona, is at the epicenter of the delistings trend, seeing more homes pulled from the market than any other area. Economists believe this is because areas in the South and West have seen inventory hit pre-pandemic levels but prices remaining flat or are even falling. Last week Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi issued a 'red flare' warning for the housing market and cautioned that it could drag down the entire economy. 'I sent off a yellow flare on the housing market in a post a couple of weeks ago, but I now think a red flare is more appropriate,' Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi wrote on X. A 'red flare' warning suggests the market is experiencing major instability and a fall is imminent. 'Home sales are already uber depressed,' Zandi wrote. 'Housing will thus soon be a full-blown headwind to broader economic growth, adding to the growing list of reasons to be worried about the economy's prospects later this year and early next.'
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Why single-family home starts fell in June
Single-family housing starts in June fell 4.6% from the revised May data. chief economist Danielle Hale and founder Lou Basenese discuss what is causing the slowdown. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination Overtime here. Well, the US housing market landscape remains tricky to navigate. US single family housing starts declining 4.6% in June, while mortgage rates rise for a second straight week. Meanwhile, home builder sentiment has been in negative territory for 15 consecutive months. What does it all mean for home buyers? Well, here to discuss this chief economist, Daniel Hale. Daniel, great to see you. Let me start with that data today because it was interesting. You actually saw June housing starts. They rebounded, Daniel, by 4.6%, but it sounds like that was mostly a surge in multi-unit and then it was the single family starts, which would tend to be more reliable, that did sink 4.6% in June. What is going on there, Daniel? Yeah, so, um, it's great to be here. Thanks for having me, Josh. You know, when we look at the housing data that we saw today, uh, construction rebounded from a pretty weak May, um, but it was driven by a construction in multi-family. And so, uh, for someone who is going to be a renter, that really matters. That multi-family often affects, uh, rental supply. But if you're looking to buy a home on the single family side, that's where you want to pay attention to. And we did see a pullback in single family housing starts. That's true whether we're looking at permits or starts, and it was a pretty significant pullback. And then if we look at the overall completions, those pulled back across the board. So that to me reflects builders trying to manage their pipelines amid a really challenging environment where they're facing a bit of a slowdown in housing demand. We've seen single family, uh, home sales, new home sales soften, uh, over the last few months. And at the same time, builders are navigating some pretty tough cross currents from rising construction costs, tariff uncertainty. So it's not an easy time to be a builder right now. You know, here's the bottom line. I want to read you this, Daniel, from the economist, Stephen Stanley. He's a smart guy. He wrote his clients this morning. Here's how he sums it up. He says, I look for a sustained period of weakness in residential building activity extending through the summer and likely into the fall. That does not sound great, Daniel. Does it? Does it line up with your forecast? I think that's right. The home building environment is especially tough because we already see the softening in demand. And at the same time, we have an increasing number of existing home sales on the market. So there's more, uh, complementary inventory that builders have to compete with. And even, uh, in the existing side of the market, we're seeing sellers get somewhat frustrated and in an increasing number of cases, pulling their homes off of the market because they're not necessarily getting the price they want. Builders don't generally have the flexibility to pull their home off the market. They just kind of have to navigate through it. So I don't think he's off the mark there. Lou, I want to get you in here. I know you think about this housing market as well, my friend. What do you see ahead? Yeah, I mean, I thought it was bad to be in the energy sector, but then I get this data here where sentiments low, prices are down. Um, you know, you're looking at basically affordability being really high. I I look at this, this is the biggest frustration. I'm sure that most home builders and investors are facing. There's a definitive and structural supply imbalance. We need about 3 million more single family homes and yet we can't build them and get them sold at prices that are attractive. So I think longer term, housing's going to be a great place to be. In the short term, affordability is such a problem that I think everyone is waiting. I think the last survey I saw that was 65, 67% of home buyers were waiting for rates to come down and prices to come down before they actually pull the trigger, which if having the consumer on pause with the Fed on pause, uh, I'm not sure that the, uh, the consumer's going to wait and enact first before the Fed does. Daniel, Lou brings up this issue of affordability. It's a familiar narrative. We've been talking about it for a while, Daniel. I'm just looking at mortgage news daily, 30-year fixed, 681, Daniel. As you try to model this out, where could we be, Daniel, six months from now, 12 months from now? Yeah, it's really tough to model because we've got a lot of fiscal uncertainty, you've got a lot of uncertainty with respect to the economic outlook, what's going to happen with inflation, how much our tariffs going to pass through and be transitory versus stick around and be something that the Fed has to navigate through. Uh, so I do think it's difficult for forecasters that obviously makes it difficult for decision makers, home buyers and and others to predict what's going to happen. I think the best way to approach the market if you are going to be in the market right now is just to test out a bunch of different scenarios so that you can react nimbly, no matter what happens. I will say despite all of this uncertainty, we've seen a period of rather like rather steadiness in the mortgage rates. So mortgage rates have been roughly between 6 and a half percent and 7% since, um, late September. So, uh, despite all of the uncertainty, you know, they are remaining relatively high where they are, and that is something that consumers, um, can consider as they're shopping. Daniel, one final question. Can you walk me through this trend of D listings? What do we, what do we mean by that? Walk us through it. Yeah, so when you put your home on the market for sale, we say that it's listed with generally the MLS and then you put it up for a period of time. Generally, that period of time ends when you get an offer and then ultimately a buyer and your home sale closes. But sometimes you might have a listing for a period of time, say 90 days, 120 days. If you don't get an offer that meets your satisfaction in that period of time, you can choose to just let your listing expire or you could pull it from the market before then and say decide not to sell your home right now, or in some cases, maybe you pull it off and try to find another agent to work with potentially. But so D listings are an indicator of something not going right and the sale not going through potentially in the way that the seller envisioned. Daniel, always good to see you and to have you on the show. Thank you.
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Single-Family Home Construction Dips as Builders Admit Making Price Cuts To Spur Sales
The construction of new homes scaled back for the month of June as single-family housing starts were at a rate of 883,000, according to the latest data released Friday by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.6% (±11.4 percent)* below the revised May figure of 926,000. The June rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 414,000. 'A jump in multifamily construction led to a small uptick in housing permits and starts in June, but overall construction remains weak, with single-family permits and starts at 11+ month lows,' says Danielle Hale, chief economist at In June, 1,397,000 building permits were issued; housing starts (which represent the beginning of new construction) totaled 1,321,000, and the number of new homes completed stood at 1,314,000. 'These lows in single family construction come as nearly 2 in 5 builders reported making price cuts in June, underscoring the price sensitivity of today's home shoppers,' says Hale. The latest Housing Market Index (HMI) survey from the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) revealed that 38% of builders reported cutting prices in July—that's the highest percentage since NAHB began tracking this figure monthly in 2022. That number is a percent higher from when 37% of builders reported cutting prices in June, 34% in May, and 29% in April. Economic factors Despite the decrease in housing starts, mortgage applications for new home purchases increased 8.5% in June, compared from a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) builder application survey—but compared to May 2025, applications decreased by 4%. 'A cloudier economic outlook and elevated mortgage rates continues to weigh on potential buyers, while growing inventory, builder incentives, and lower prices have brought some buyers back to the market,' says Joel Kan, MBA's vice president and deputy chief economist. The single-family construction decline comes on the heels of mortgage interest rates increasing for two consecutive weeks. The average rate on a 30-year fixed home loan inched up to 6.75% for the week ending July 17, according to Freddie Mac. This week's rate is up from 6.72% last week. For perspective, rates averaged 6.77% during the same time in 2024. Add to that inflation rising in June—it's highest level since February. Consumer prices rose to 2.7%, up from 2.4% in May, according to the U.S. Labor Department's consumer price index. 'June's numbers mark a slight shift from May's cooler-than-expected inflation data, but it remains unclear if and when the U.S. economy will feel the true brunt of a slew of new tariffs,' says Senior Economist Jake Krimmel. This week, President Donald Trump said he plans to tell more than 150 countries what tariff rate they will face. The president explained it'll be the 'same for everyone.' 'They're not big countries, and they don't do that much business. Not like the ones we've agreed with, like China, like Japan,' Trump told reporters during a meeting with Bahrain's Crown Price at the White House, according to Politico. Several countries have already received letters letting them know that the tariff rate increase will take effect Aug. 1. The European Union, Japan, Mexico, Canada, and South Korea will be among the countries affected. Related Articles This High-Priced Metro's Popularity Surges Among Local Homebuyers: Why They're Staying Put as Others Flee Big Cities Mortgage Applications Today: Home Loan Demand Falls by 10% After Mortgage Interest Rates Rise Foreign Investors Bought $56 Billion Worth of U.S. Homes Solve the daily Crossword
Yahoo
07-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Housing Supply Has Bounced Back In Some Markets
Housing inventory around the country continues to grow as high prices and borrowing costs slow sales, a report found. In places like Seattle and Denver, there are more houses available for sale than there were in 2019, before the Covid pandemic. While median housing prices were about the same as last year at $440,000, 19% of sellers cut prices on their home--the highest share since not a buyers' market yet for house hunters, but the available inventory in some cities has jumped even higher than pre-pandemic levels, according to one report. Nationwide, the number of houses for sale is still lower than the pre-pandemic averages, but May housing report showed that inventory levels rose for the 19th straight month and were more than 30% higher than the same period last year. And in places like Seattle, Dallas and Austin, Texas, the number of homes for sale is more than 50% higher than pre-pandemic levels. Inventory in Denver is double what it was before Covid. Indeed, 22 of the top 50 metro areas now have more inventory than they did in 2019, the report showed. Chief Economist Danielle Hale said it showed that inventory levels were beginning to realign after several years of unaffordable conditions. 'In some areas, affordability concerns have also slowed buyer demand, giving the market room to breathe and contributing to gains in [the number of] homes for sale,' Hale said. 'In general, we're seeing strong inventory rebounds in metros that have built more in the last 6 years.'Although inventory levels are improving, Hale said that there is a still a 4.6 month supply of housing available nationwide, below the level of 6 months that generally defines a buyers' market. The gains in inventory are the byproduct of a housing market that has been too expensive for most Americans to afford, Hale said. With few houses to choose from, home buyers have been facing higher prices as sellers are able to charge more amid competition among buyers. Meanwhile, high mortgage rates are keeping other potential home buyers on the sideline. All of this has led to an inventory 'pile up' in some areas, as more houses sit on the market for longer, Hale said. It's also helped spur homebuilders to construct more houses to meet the demand. 'This milestone underscores both the importance of enabling housing construction and the growing divide in housing conditions across regions, where some markets are rapidly normalizing and others remain stuck in low-supply dynamics," Hale said. Supplies may be higher but sales are not; they fell by 2.5% in May when compared with last year as mortgage rates pushed near 7% during that month, the report showed. Higher inventory levels haven't pushed prices lower either. The typical listing price in May was $440,000, flat from a year-ago. However, 19% of home sellers did drop their prices that month, the highest level of price cuts since 2016. Read the original article on Investopedia Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
