Latest news with #DavidBoling
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Japan's Ishiba Tries to Buy Time After Historic Election Setback
(Bloomberg) -- Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba sought to buy time in office following a second election setback in less than a year. But whether he stays days, weeks or even months, Sunday's vote made clear that his Liberal Democratic Party needs an overhaul to stay relevant. Why the Federal Reserve's Building Renovation Costs $2.5 Billion Milan Corruption Probe Casts Shadow Over Property Boom How San Jose's Mayor Is Working to Build an AI Capital Ishiba on Monday vowed to remain in his job even though his LDP-led coalition finished Sunday running a government without a majority in both chambers of parliament for the first time since the party's founding seven decades ago. While it has ruled Japan for most of that period, younger voters are increasingly turning toward populist smaller parties as rising prices fuel discontent. 'The LDP is a fatigued party and it has a brand problem,' said David Boling, director at the Eurasia Group covering Japan and Asia Trade, former negotiator at the USTR. 'To be blunt I think many Japanese and many Japanese voters see it as a party of old men who are out of touch.' Although the outcome on Sunday wasn't as bad as some of the early exit polls suggested, Ishiba still failed to clear the low bar he set of retaining a majority in the upper house. That leaves him at risk of becoming yet another footnote in the revolving door of Japanese prime ministers that only managed to last for a year or so. For now, Ishiba can lean into the fact that he needs to stay on to negotiate a trade deal with the US to help Japan avoid a steep increase in tariffs from Donald Trump's administration. He cited those talks and other pressing issues at his briefing on Monday. 'I plan to put all of my efforts into finding a solution to the urgent issues we face, including the US tariffs, inflation, natural disasters, and the most complex and severe security environment since the war,' Ishiba said. Still, it looks like his days are numbered — even if he has no obvious successor right now. 'We'll see in the next day or two if the dissenters are able to gather enough people to push him out, but this can't go on,' said Tobias Harris, founder of Japan Foresight, adding that none of the opposition parties want to join a coalition with him. 'It all looks like you've got a political crisis.' Harris cited four key points a replacement would need for success: bringing back right-wing voters, appealing to a younger demographic, matching Trump at the negotiation table and rebuilding a governing coalition that can win at the ballot box. Few of the familiar names in the LDP check all four boxes, he said. The timing of any move may depend on the success of the trade talks. Ishiba said he wanted to speak with Trump and obtain tangible results in the negotiations soon. His long-time right-hand man Ryosei Akazawa is already on his way to Washington for an eighth attempt to gain traction with his counterparts in the US. Among the key sticking points is the sectoral tariff on cars and auto parts that is sending profit hit shockwaves through Japan's auto sector. Within the LDP there is already unhappiness about Ishiba's relatively neutral response to Trump's abrupt letter stipulating higher across-the-board duties of 25% from the beginning of August. 'If Ishiba has no concrete results by then the voices calling for his resignation will likely get louder,' said Katsuyuki Yakushiji, professor emeritus at Toyo University and writer of multiple books on Japanese politics. He indicated that August would likely be the make-or-break month for the prime minister. The last three LDP prime ministers who lost an upper house majority stepped down within two months, including Shinzo Abe in 2007 during his first stint as premier. Abe's departure then, may provide a rough time frame for Ishiba now. Abe lost the majority in July, tried a cabinet reshuffle in August to regain momentum then stepped down in September. That month is a common post-summer timing for the LDP to appoint and try to rally around a new leader. At the time, Ishiba was one of the LDP's fiercest voices calling on Abe to resign unless he could justify a reason for staying on. Ishiba was reminded of this comment on Monday and said he clearly remembered asking Abe to explain himself to the public as well as the party. Fast forward 18 years and it's Ishiba taking the heat. The same names in the news, a generation later. The opposition gains in the election show voters are wanting something different. Ishiba is the leader the LDP chose, but he's not the choice of most members of the public. And they seek a sales tax cut to ease the pain of inflation they never asked for either. While the Constitutional Democratic Party came second as the biggest opposition party offering to address the tax issue, many younger voters opted for the Democratic Party for the People's and its pledge of more take-home pay for working age people. Harder conservatives drifted to Sanseito and its 'Japanese First' message, though support remained highly localized around areas with high concentrations of foreigners or as a kind of protest vote in the proportional representation segment of the election. Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is among the LDP members who might check a couple of the check boxes cited by Harris, while Sanae Takaichi, the policy hawk who lost out to Ishiba in last year's party shootout, might seem an obvious choice to win back right-wingers. But both would give the impression of looking at the rear-view mirror. Takaichi would likely more look like Abenomics II, than a move forward. Instead the party should look at younger guns such as conservative former Economic Security Minister Takayuki Kobayashi or Shinjiro Koizumi, the 'rice minister' whose quick action has helped cool prices of the nation's staple, according to Eurasia's Boling. In Koizumi's case, he also inherits some reformist cache from his father Junichiro, a party maverick who helped re-brand the party a quarter century ago, something the party needs to do again now. 'I think that brand needs to be a face of a younger LDP member. Is that Kobayashi? Is that Koizumi?' said Boling. 'I think it's probably more Koizumi than Kobayashi.' --With assistance from Yuko Takeo. (Adds analyst comments.) 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Yahoo
08-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Asian Economies in Rush to Cut Tariff Deals as US Deadline Moves
(Bloomberg) -- Asian countries including Japan and South Korea said they'll keep pushing for a better deal for their exports to the US after President Donald Trump shifted his tariff deadline to Aug. 1 and tweaked the rates he's set for many economies. Are Tourists Ruining Europe? How Locals Are Pushing Back Trump's Gilded Design Style May Be Gaudy. But Don't Call it 'Rococo.' Denver City Hall Takes a Page From NASA In California, Pro-Housing 'Abundance' Fans Rewrite an Environmental Landmark Can Mamdani Bring Free Buses to New York City? In his first wave of letters to key trading partners, Trump announced levies of 25% on goods from Japan and South Korea, with rates for Indonesia and Thailand set at over 30%. The US president also signed an executive order holding off the new duties until Aug. 1. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Daybreak Podcast on Apple, Spotify and other Podcast Platforms. The extension by Trump leaves economies across Asia — including some of America's closest allies on the continent — squarely in the US administration's tariff sights while giving officials a little over three additional weeks to negotiate lower rates. Complicating such accords is the prospect of separate sectoral tariffs on products including cars, chips and pharmaceuticals that are critical industries for economies across Asia. 'For Trump, whether the US has a goods trade deficit with a country is more important than whether the country is an ally,' said David Boling, director of Japan Trade at consultancy Eurasia Group. 'Trump's tariffs will be a drag on regional growth because so many Asian countries depend on the US market for their exports.' Shares in South Korea jumped more than 1.4% and the Nikkei-225 index advanced 0.2%. The MSCI regional stock benchmark edged up 0.1%, after swinging between small gains and losses earlier Tuesday. The won strengthened, while a gauge of the dollar dipped 0.2%. The 25% across-the-board tariff announced by Trump on all shipments from South Korea matches the level that was set to be implemented on July 9. Japan's new rate is a percentage point higher than that originally announced on April 2. 'It's regrettable that the US has announced higher tariff rates,' Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said after discussing the state of play with cabinet ministers at a meeting in Tokyo. 'We'll continue talks with the US, protecting our national interests while actively seeking the possibility of a deal and benefits for both the US and Japan.' South Korea said it will fix rules and regulations to address US demands to lower non-tariff barriers. 'We see this letter as a de facto extension of the grace period for imposing reciprocal tariffs until Aug. 1,' South Korea's Industry Ministry said in a statement on Tuesday, vowing to accelerate negotiations to reach a mutually beneficial agreement. Japan and Korea are both dealing with complex domestic circumstances where cutting trade deals might be risky politically. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung only took office on June 4, and elections in Japan's upper house later this month made Ishiba's government reluctant to offer too much in concessions. Asked why Trump had chosen to hit Japan and South Korea first, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said it was 'the president's prerogative.' 'Those are the countries he chose,' she added. 'If the tariffs stay in place they likely have a major detrimental impact on Japanese companies that export to the US, particularly the automakers,' said James Halse, CEO & CIO at Senjin Capital Pty Ltd. 'That negative impact likely cascades up the supply chain to their suppliers in Japan who may not export to the US themselves.' Japan was initially seen as a promising partner for a quick deal, but the negotiations hit a roadblock over car tariffs. The sector accounts for most of the US trade deficit with Japan while being a key growth driver for Tokyo. Japan will take all possible measures to mitigate the impact of the 25% across-the-board tariffs, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said in a regular press conference Tuesday. Trump also announced 25% rates on Malaysia, while Laos and Myanmar would face a 40% levy. Other nations hit with levies included Indonesia with a 32% rate, Bangladesh with 35%, and Thailand and Cambodia with duties of 36%. At an event held later at the White House, Trump said that 'for the most part' he was content to simply impose the duties, even as he indicated he was continuing negotiations, including talks with India that could soon wrap up. Thailand remains optimistic about securing a lower tariff rate than the levy announced by Trump, based on its offer to reduce import tax on most US goods to zero, Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said. Trump set the levy on Thailand without taking into account its revised proposals to increase market access by removing tariff and non-tariff barriers on a number of goods, Pichai told reporters Tuesday. The latest Thai proposal 'is a good deal for the US as Thailand will lower import tariffs on 90% of US products,' Pichai said, adding he was 'a bit shocked' by the Trump letter setting the tariff unchanged at 36%. Meanwhile, Indonesia said it plans to immediately resume tariff negotiations with the US. Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto, who has been leading the talks, is set to arrive in Washington on July 8 and then meet with US representatives, spokesperson Haryo Limanseto said in a statement on Tuesday. 'There is still room to respond as conveyed by the US government,' Limanseto said. 'The Indonesian government will optimize the available opportunities to safeguard national interests in the future.' Taiwan is hopeful it can achieve a bilateral trade balance in its negotiations with the US and enhance bilateral cooperation in multiple areas such as technology and national security, according to a text message statement sent from the presidential office. Stephen Olson, a former US trade negotiator now with the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said there's still little clarity on what happens next and it was possible the deadline might get pushed back further in August. 'On top of that, negotiations on some of the toughest issues still need to continue,' he said. 'So we don't have an entirely clear picture on what any of these deals will ultimately look like – or if they might unravel.' --With assistance from Heesu Lee, Ruth Carson, Jaehyun Eom, Akemi Terukina, Pathom Sangwongwanich, Suttinee Yuvejwattana, Norman Harsono, Grace Sihombing and Cindy Wang. Will Trade War Make South India the Next Manufacturing Hub? 'Telecom Is the New Tequila': Behind the Celebrity Wireless Boom SNAP Cuts in Big Tax Bill Will Hit a Lot of Trump Voters Too For Brazil's Criminals, Coffee Beans Are the Target Pistachios Are Everywhere Right Now, Not Just in Dubai Chocolate ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
CNBC
20-06-2025
- Automotive
- CNBC
It's in Trump's interest to get a deal with Japan: Analyst
David Boling of Eurasia Group says the Nippon Steel-U.S. Steel 'golden share' concept is a one-off deal. He also discusses the latest on US-Japan trade talks, and the importance of automakers and auto tariffs in the negotiations.
