Latest news with #DavidSchenker
Fox News
03-07-2025
- Politics
- Fox News
Why Syria plays a key role in Trump's plans for Middle East peace
Earlier this week, President Donald Trump signed an executive order lifting most U.S. sanctions on Syria, in a move experts say reflects growing recognition inside the administration that Syria, long a battleground for Iranian influence and Islamist terror, may now offer the U.S. a rare opportunity to reclaim regional leverage, counter enemies, and support allies like Israel and Jordan. At a White House press briefing Monday, press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters, "This is another promise made and promise kept by this president," she said, referring to Trump's recent meeting with Syria's new transitional leader Ahmed al-Sharaa during a trip to Saudi Arabia. "He's committed to supporting a Syria that is stable, unified, and at peace with itself and its neighbors." "The sanctions did their job," David Schenker, former assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs and now a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, told Fox News Digital. "They were crippling by and large. There's zero economic life in the country. But Trump is giving Syria a chance to succeed." Javed Ali, former senior official at the National Security Council and professor at the University of Michigan, told Fox News Digital, "It's a strategic calculation. A Syria that no longer hosts Iranian proxies, cooperates on counterterrorism, and integrates with Arab neighbors serves U.S. interests on every front." According to Schenker, Syria has taken steps the U.S. has long demanded: allowing inspections by the IAEA and the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, sharing intelligence on ISIS, and cooperating with American liaison officers on counterterrorism. "These groups have declared al-Sharaa an infidel. They themselves are being attacked by ISIS," he noted. For the U.S., the stakes extend far beyond sanctions relief. Schenker said a stable Syria focused on education and social services, rather than military buildup, would be far less fertile ground for ISIS or Iranian influence. Ali described the current moment as part of a broader Trump strategy: "Now with Assad gone, it's another blow to the Islamic Republic of Iran. This creates an opportunity to coalesce the Sunni Arab states – either around the Abraham Accords or a growing anti-Iran coalition." The U.S. military still maintains a small but critical footprint in Syria – approximately 1,000 troops across three to four bases in the northeast – providing vital intelligence and rapid strike capability. "That footprint has been one of our most important counterterrorism outposts," Ali said. "We've seen multiple targeted operations this year alone." He said, however, that deeper U.S.-Syrian cooperation could bring new complications. "There's always a risk that as ties deepen, either the U.S. could reduce its presence – or al-Sharaa might ask us to scale back," Ali said. "That could impact our ability to monitor jihadist activity or manage the tens of thousands of ISIS detainees still in camps guarded by SDF forces." Meanwhile, the diplomatic implications of Trump's move are drawing global attention. Syria's new leadership has publicly distanced itself from Iran, reportedly blocked Hezbollah weapon shipments, and dismantled multiple Iranian military posts across the country. "The president is genuinely focused on expanding the Abraham Accords," said Schenker. "He sees Syria as the next possible candidate." NSC spokesman Taylor Rogers told Fox News Digital. "President Trump is working towards lasting peace in the Middle East, which includes supporting a Syria that is stable, unified, and at peace with itself and its neighbors. The President is empowering Syria's success by lifting sanctions on export controls while maintaining sanctions on terrorists and all other potential threats to the United States. The President made a promise to give Syria a chance to rebuild and thrive by lifting sanctions, and this President keeps his promises." Still, normalization with Israel remains politically fraught. Syria remains officially at war with the Jewish state, and while Sharaa has hinted at accepting the pre-1974 ceasefire lines, jihadist factions and Islamist groups within Syria remain staunchly opposed. "There have already been reported assassination attempts on Sharaa," Schenker said. "It's going to get harder if he moves from non-belligerency to full normalization." Charles Lister, director of the Syria program at the Middle East Institute, told Fox News Digital, "Syria has always been an open wound in the center of the region – an engine of instability… But if it stabilizes now, it unlocks a path for broader regional integration. It connects Israel and Jordan to a more secure arc and reduces the need for heavy U.S. military involvement." Despite encouraging signs on the diplomatic track – such as reported back-channel talks and reduced rhetoric – Israeli airstrikes on Syrian territory have continued, with hundreds launched this year alone. Syria's new leadership has not responded militarily, but tensions remain high. "The facts on the ground don't yet reflect the progress being made behind closed doors," Lister said. "We just have to hope that those two dynamics meet in the middle, and things calm down on the ground as well."
Ya Libnan
29-05-2025
- Politics
- Ya Libnan
There is no better time to disarm Hezbollah
File : Hezbollah top commanders that were killed in its last war with Israel by David Schenker With the group and its Iranian patrons at their weakest point in decades, Beirut has a real opportunity to restore its sovereignty, but waiting for another futile 'national dialogue' may close that window Last week, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun announced that Beirut would not forcibly disarm the Iran-backed Shiite militia Hezbollah as part of its effort to gain a state monopoly on weapons. Instead, Aoun said Hezbollah would be convinced to give up its arms on its own, through dialogue and negotiations. Moreover, the president suggested the militia's troops could then be integrated into the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). This approach, which avoids a potentially bloody face-off, will be unacceptable to both the US and Israel, and will ultimately undermine the hopeful progress Lebanon has made toward reasserting its sovereignty. Undoubtedly, President Aoun is in a difficult position. In the November 2024 ceasefire that ended the Hezbollah-Israel war, the Lebanese government agreed to implement United Nations Security Council Resolutions 1701 and 1559, which require the disarmament of all militias in the country. For its part, Hezbollah agreed to move its military hardware and personnel to the area above the Litani River, but it has rejected demilitarization elsewhere. Since the ceasefire was signed in December, the LAF has largely fulfilled its obligations to seize the militia's weapons and dismantle Hezbollah's infrastructure along the frontier with Israel. Lacking sufficient numbers of troops and concerned about sparking a resumption of its sectarian civil war, however, Beirut has baulked at going after Hezbollah's arsenal north of the Litani. Meanwhile, consistent with the terms of the ceasefire, Israel continues to target Hezbollah assets and personnel throughout the state. Default Approach To square the circle while avoiding a seemingly inevitable confrontation with Hezbollah, Aoun has defaulted to Lebanon's perennial preferred method of dealing with uncomfortable and insoluble problems: national dialogue. Aoun is calling for a 'bilateral dialogue' with Hezbollah to reach an agreement on the organization's disarmament. Since 2005, Hezbollah has periodically engaged with the Lebanese government and political factions in dialogues focused on designing a 'national defense strategy.' These discussions proved sterile, largely because Hezbollah always refused to discuss ceding its weapons but also because the organization routinely murdered Lebanese critics who had the temerity to suggest that Hezbollah surrender its arms. Accordingly, until 2025, successive Lebanese governments accepted and legitimated, in their ministerial statements, the militia's possession of weapons and 'resistance.' For example, in 2010, Hezbollah participated in several rounds of talks. But Hezbollah maintained its position, and negotiations, unsurprisingly, made no progress. In 2012, then-President Michel Suleiman advocated for placing Hezbollah's arms under the authority of the LAF, but the group swiftly rejected it. In 2016, President Michel Aoun endorsed Hezbollah's arms as 'complementary' to the LAF. After years of futile efforts, in 2018, negotiations finally broke down after the militia deployed to Syria to defend the Assad regime against a popular revolt. Now, Hezbollah says it is again willing to participate in a dialogue. According to Hezbollah MP Ihab Hamadeh, this dialogue would focus on establishing a 'defensive strategy' that would have to 'convince' the Lebanese that the state could defend the country from Israel. Militia officials have said they could agree to disarm if Israel withdraws from Lebanon—a reference to five hilltop locations Israel continues to occupy in Lebanon—and ends its targeting of Hezbollah. But that position has since been contradicted by the organization's current leader, Naim Qassem, who said on 19 April that 'no one will be allowed to remove the weapons of the resistance.' In any event, these officials say the dialogue will not occur until after the parliamentary elections in 2026, currently slated for May. Delay Tactic As in previous failed national dialogues, it appears that Hezbollah is once again embracing talks as a delay tactic . The United States and Israel, as well as many critics of Hezbollah in Lebanon, understand that after sustaining so many losses in its war of choice in support of Hamas, the militia is looking to buy time to regroup and reconstitute. For his part, President Aoun is seeking to avoid a direct confrontation with Hezbollah, but he is under pressure. US Deputy Special Envoy for the Middle East Morgan Ortagus continues to press Aoun and the Lebanese government to fulfil their ceasefire obligations vis-a-vis Hezbollah. As Ortagus recently reiterated to the Lebanese network LBCI, 'that includes disarming Hezbollah and all militias .' Aoun's National Dialogue initiative and his trial balloon suggestion of incorporating Hezbollah fighters into the LAF were a well-intentioned effort to cajole Hezbollah into concessions the group is loath to make. To be sure, conscripting the militia into the LAF was the unstated policy vision for Hezbollah during the Clinton Administration. Yet Aoun clearly understands this approach won't fly with Trump's Washington. Indeed, immediately after floating the idea, Aoun clarified that absorbing Hezbollah into the LAF would not resemble the structure of Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces, known as the Hashd al Shaaby , into the Iraqi military. The Hashd—another Iranian-backed militia force—operates separately and outside the control of the Iraqi government. In the case of Hezbollah, Aoun said, militia members would not be permitted to operate as an independent unit like the Hashd, but would instead be recruited into the military as individuals. Despite Aoun's assurances, the approach—in which Hezbollah loyalists would receive military training and continue to possess weapons—is unlikely to advance the disarmament objective. Predictable Initiative Sadly, this initiative was predictable. On 8 October 2024—two months prior to the ceasefire and three months before Aoun was elected president—I anticipated this outcome in a paper published by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy . At the time, I wrote: 'To avoid antagonizing the group (Hezbollah) while placating the West, they may be tempted to finesse the resolution to 'incorporate' Hezbollah into the LAF. This would be unacceptable, however.' Seven months on, the idea remains problematic. Lebanon has committed itself to disarming all militias and establishing a state monopoly on weapons. This is the sine qua non if Lebanon hopes to become a sovereign and successful state. And it is for the first time possible because of Israeli military operations in October and November 2024 that degraded Hezbollah to an unprecedented extent. Incorporating Hezbollah into the LAF will preserve the militia's latent capabilities and undercut the army. Delaying efforts to disarm the militia via an interminable dialogue will provide the group with a reprieve from extreme pressure. With both Hezbollah and its Iranian patrons at their weakest point, Lebanon has a fleeting opportunity to restore its eroded sovereignty. Washington will continue to press Beirut to seize this opportunity, but the decision ultimately rests with President Aoun and the Lebanese government. No doubt, Hezbollah will try to delay its demilitarization in hopes of maintaining a residual capability, and should the government persist and broaden its efforts against the group, there could be violent clashes. Despite the risks, however, there will never be a more favorable time to disarm Hezbollah—with or without its consent—than now. David Schenker is the Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute . He worked in the Department of Defense during the George W. Bush administration, and was nominated on April 9, 2018, to head the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs in the State Department . . He has written two books, Dancing with Saddam: The Strategic Tango of Jordanian–Iraqi Relations (2003) and Palestinian Democracy and Governance: An Appraisal of the Legislative Council (2000). ( The Washington Institute )
MTV Lebanon
04-04-2025
- Politics
- MTV Lebanon
Schenker to MTV: This Is What Ortagus Will Say, and Normalization Will Happen in Due Time!
David Schenker, former US Assistant Secretary of State for Middle Eastern Affairs, revealed that US Deputy Special Envoy to the Middle East Morgan Ortagus will express surprise at the efforts of the Lebanese security forces but will stress that they must do more. He added, "It is also important for the Lebanese government to tell Ortagus that Saudi Arabia and Qatar should assist with funding the salaries of the security forces to enable them to carry out their work." In an interview on MTV's It's About Time (Sar El Waet) program, Schenker explained that "the work must continue until Resolution 1559 is implemented across all of Lebanon, not just south of the Litani River. While the ceasefire has held despite the crisis, Lebanon must persist in its efforts to disarm Hezbollah." He emphasized that "peace is always beneficial, and Lebanon will gain from it, but other necessary steps must be taken before that." Schenker further noted that "Lebanon and Israel must finalize their border demarcation and resolve the Shebaa Farms issue with Syria before talks on normalization can proceed." He added: "It is clear that a confrontation will be necessary to implement the agreement, but Lebanon must seize the opportunity to build a state, rather than remaining an Iranian militia. There is a clear difference between the US and France on Lebanon, as demonstrated by France's attempt to impose an economic rescue plan without the necessary reforms."
Iraq Business
08-03-2025
- Politics
- Iraq Business
Iraqis Fear That Trump's America Will Depart Once and For All
By David Schenker for The National Interest. Any opinions expressed are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News. Iraqis Fear That Trump's America Will Depart Once and For All Baghdad has good reason to be concerned about the trajectory of the U.S.-Iraq relationship. Click here to read the full report.
