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Mint
a day ago
- Business
- Mint
IEX share price extends fall; crashes 37% in ten sessions. Opportunity for bottom fishing?
IEX share price continued its downward trend on Tuesday, falling over 5% amid persistent selling pressure. IEX shares declined as much as 5.03% to hit a low of ₹ 132.00 apiece on the BSE. IEX shares have now declined in nine of the last ten trading sessions, losing nearly 37% of its value during this period. The sharp correction in Indian Energy Exchange share price follows heightened volatility driven primarily by regulatory developments. Investor sentiment has been weighed down by the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission's (CERC) approval of market coupling, a move expected to significantly alter the competitive dynamics of the power trading ecosystem. Here are the factors contributing to recent slide in IEX share price: Approval of Market Coupling: The CERC's decision to implement market coupling — starting with the Day-Ahead Market (DAM) in January 2026 — has been a major drag on the IEX stock price. The reform aims to consolidate price discovery across multiple power exchanges by integrating their bids, which could dilute IEX's current dominance. Threat to Market Leadership: With over 80% market share, IEX has long benefited from its deep liquidity and efficient price discovery. However, market coupling raises concerns about potential loss of these competitive advantages. Brokerage Downgrades: Brokerage firms have responded to the regulatory shift by revising their outlook on the stock. Jefferies, for instance, reiterated its 'Underperform' rating, slashing IEX share price target to ₹ 105 from ₹ 150. The brokerage expects IEX's market share to decline from over 80% in FY25 to around 50% by FY28 due to the impending changes. Exit from F&O Ban List: IEX was recently removed from the Futures & Options (F&O) ban list. This may have triggered heightened trading activity, adding to the stock's volatility. IEX share price remained under pressure, with every bounce getting sold into. 'IEX share price is re-testing the 24th July swing low near ₹ 131, the day when a sharp sell-off was witnessed. Going ahead, a break below ₹ 131 could trigger further weakness. On the flip side, ₹ 150 is likely to act as resistance,' said Rajesh Bhosale, Equity Technical and Derivative Analyst at Angel One. IEX share price has declined 29% over the past month and 25% in the last six months. On a one-year basis, IEX stock is down 28%, though it has gained 122% over a five-year period. At 12:35 PM, IEX share price was trading 3.24% lower at ₹ 134.50 apiece on the BSE. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
News18
5 days ago
- Business
- News18
IEX Shares Recover After Thursday Rout, Rises 10% On Q1 Earnings Beat
Last Updated: Shares of Indian Energy Exchange Ltd (IEX) staged a sharp recovery in Friday's trade, rising 10% to hit the upper circuit IEX Shares Price: Shares of Indian Energy Exchange Ltd (IEX) staged a sharp recovery in Friday's trade, rising 10% to hit the upper circuit at Rs 145.65 on the BSE. The rebound came after a steep 29% fall on Thursday, as investors reassessed the sharp selloff as excessive. The recovery was supported by better-than-expected June quarter results, providing temporary relief to IEX's 13.59 lakh retail shareholders. Strong Q1 Results Back Recovery IEX reported a 25.2% year-on-year (YoY) rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 120.7 crore for Q1FY26. Revenue also rose 19.2% YoY to Rs 184.2 crore, compared to Rs 154.5 crore a year ago. Brokerage Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) said revenue was in line with its estimates, EBITDA fell short, but profit after tax (PAT) beat expectations by 5%, thanks to higher other income. The firm maintained a 'Neutral' rating on the stock. JM Financial echoed a similar view, stating that while Q1FY26 results were broadly in line with expectations, PAT exceeded expectations due to stronger-than-anticipated other income. IEX said India's peak power demand during summer 2025 hit 242 GW on June 12. The government took proactive steps, including invoking Section 11 of the Electricity Act to mandate full-capacity operation of imported coal-based plants, activating gas-based units, and ensuring adequate domestic coal supplies. Despite forecasts of record demand (277 GW), an early monsoon and widespread unseasonal rains kept temperatures—and power consumption—lower than expected. India's electricity consumption in Q1FY26 stood at 446 BUs, down 1.3% from the year-ago period. CERC Order and Market Coupling On the regulatory front, IEX addressed the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission's (CERC) recent order to implement market coupling in the Day-Ahead Market (DAM) segment. IEX said it is conducting a detailed impact assessment and will update stakeholders as the implementation progresses. As per the directive, market coupling will begin in a phased manner with DAM by January 2026, using a round-robin model where exchanges take turns as Market Coupling Operators (MCOs). Grid-India will act as the backup MCO with audit responsibilities. CERC has also asked for similar coupling mechanisms in other market segments like the Real-Time Market (RTM) and Term-Ahead Market (TAM), to be explored through pilots and consultations. IEX currently commands a ~90% market share in electricity trading across power exchanges. Analysts fear that once market coupling is implemented, IEX's pricing advantage may diminish. With a uniform market clearing price (MCP) across exchanges, IEX could be reduced to a neutral clearing platform—similar to PTC India—removing its ability to compete on price or efficiency. First Published: July 25, 2025, 10:11 IST Disclaimer: Comments reflect users' views, not News18's. Please keep discussions respectful and constructive. Abusive, defamatory, or illegal comments will be removed. News18 may disable any comment at its discretion. By posting, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
Time of India
5 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
IEX shares rebound 8% after worst fall, driven by upbeat Q1 earnings
Here are the details: IEX Q1 results Live Events CERC gives market coupling a go-ahead (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel After their steep fall on Thursday, shares of Indian Energy Exchange IEX ) rallied 8.4% to an intraday high of Rs 143.55 in early trade on BSE on Friday, July 25. The rebound came after the power trading platform reported a strong 25% year-on-year (YoY) rise in consolidated net profit for the quarter ended June 30, Thursday, the stock had declined sharply after CERC approved the implementation of market company's net profit for Q1FY26 stood at Rs 120 crore, up from Rs 96 crore in the same period last for the quarter came in at Rs 184.2 crore, marking a 19% YoY growth compared to Rs 154 crore in earnings were announced after market hours on the operational front, electricity volumes on the exchange for Q1FY26 stood at 32.4 billion units (BUs), reflecting a 14.9% YoY growth. In addition, IEX reported that 52.7 lakh Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) were traded during the quarter, up 149.3% YoY. IEX shares plunged 29% to settle at Rs 132.45 on the BSE following the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission's (CERC) formal approval to the implementation of market coupling for India's power an official order issued on Wednesday, the CERC stated that it has decided to initiate the process of market coupling in a phased manner. The first phase will involve the coupling of the Day-Ahead Market (DAM) operated by the country's power exchanges. This will be done using a 'round-robin' mode by January market coupling is a mechanism used in electricity markets to unify the price discovery process by pooling bids from multiple power exchanges and clearing them centrally.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Time of India
5 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Explained: What is market coupling in power sector, and how it will change electricity pricing in India
New Delhi: In a major reform move, India's electricity regulator—the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC)—has ordered a phased rollout of market coupling in the Day-Ahead Market (DAM) by January 2026. While this may sound technical, it is expected to reshape the way electricity is bought and sold in India, and could eventually help lower prices for consumers and improve efficiency in the power system. So what exactly is market coupling, and why is it being introduced now? What is Market Coupling: Think of it like airline ticket booking Imagine there are three different travel apps—say App A, App B, and App C—where you can book airline tickets. Right now, each app has a different price for the same flight, even though the airline is the same. Some apps may show lower fares, others may not. Now imagine if all the apps were connected to a central system that pooled all the tickets together and offered you the best price across all platforms—automatically. That's what market coupling aims to do for electricity. Currently, India has three power exchanges—IEX ( Indian Energy Exchange ), PXIL (Power Exchange India Ltd), and HPX (Hindustan Power Exchange). All three allow electricity buyers (like DISCOMs and large industries) and sellers (like power generators) to trade power for the next day. But each exchange operates independently, leading to different prices for the same commodity—electricity. With market coupling, there will be a common price for power across all exchanges, determined by a single Market Coupling Operator (MCO). The goal is to ensure the most efficient match of supply and demand, regardless of which exchange the bid is placed on. Why is this being done now? Electricity markets are becoming more dynamic, with large variations in demand and supply throughout the day—especially with the rise of solar and wind energy. Ensuring that power is dispatched efficiently and at the lowest cost is becoming critical. Between December 2024 and March 2025, a shadow pilot project was conducted by Grid-India to test if market coupling can actually deliver results. The findings were promising: 1. In the Real-Time Market (RTM), market coupling could save ₹1.4 crore per day. 2. Price volatility went down. 3. Power was allocated more efficiently. These results gave the CERC confidence to roll out the reform—starting with the Day-Ahead Market. What changes can consumers and the industry expect? In the long term, market coupling could lead to lower and more stable power prices, especially during periods of surplus supply. For instance, when wind power is high at night or solar is abundant in the afternoon, prices fall sharply on one exchange but remain high on another. Market coupling will eliminate these gaps. Also, it will discourage arbitrage behaviour—where buyers deliberately choose the exchange with lower prices—because now there will be one national clearing price. For industries and DISCOMs, this could simplify buying decisions, make costs more predictable, and reduce administrative complexity. Who will run the new system? Rather than appointing one central operator, the CERC has adopted a round-robin model, where the three exchanges will take turns acting as the Market Coupling Operator. Grid-India will act as a standby body and oversee audits, ensuring transparency. For now, market coupling will be implemented only in the Day-Ahead Market, where the bulk of scheduled electricity is traded. Real-Time Market (RTM) and Term-Ahead Market (TAM) coupling have been deferred due to operational and technical complexities. What are the challenges ahead? Market coupling may sound simple, but its execution is highly complex. All exchanges will have to align their bidding formats, upgrade their software systems, and coordinate closely in real-time. There are also concerns about whether market coupling could reduce competition among exchanges. However, the CERC has clarified that while price discovery will be centralised, competition will continue in services, user experience, and innovation, keeping exchanges relevant. What comes next? The CERC has directed its staff to work with Grid-India and stakeholders to propose regulatory changes needed to implement the reform. Another pilot is expected in the Term-Ahead Market, and broader consultations will follow. If successful, India could become one of the few countries globally with a unified, efficient, and transparent electricity market, helping ensure both cost-effective power and grid stability—key to supporting rising demand, especially from electric vehicles, industry, and green hydrogen.
Economic Times
5 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
IEX crashes nearly 30% after market coupling nod: Technical analysts see no floor yet
Shares of Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) crashed 29.5% on Thursday to close at Rs 132.45 on the BSE, marking one of the stock's steepest single-day declines. The sharp fall followed a regulatory order from the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC), which approved the implementation of market coupling in the day-ahead power market by January 2026. ADVERTISEMENT The move has raised fresh concerns about IEX's future market dominance and its core revenue model. Late Wednesday, the CERC said it would initiate market coupling in a phased manner, starting with the Day-Ahead Market (DAM). The mechanism aims to unify price discovery across multiple power exchanges by pooling bids and clearing them centrally, a structural shift that could dilute IEX's competitive edge and impact its transaction charges, which currently form a major part of its revenue. While the move is expected to improve efficiency and reduce regional price disparities, it threatens the liquidity moat that IEX has built over the called the development 'as bad as it gets' for IEX, cutting its target price to Rs 122 and maintaining a 'Market-Perform' rating. 'With the moat of liquidity gone, the only way to compete is transaction charge,' the firm noted. ADVERTISEMENT In contrast, UBS retained a 'Buy' call with a target of Rs 285, terming the news a 'negative surprise' but pointing out that the Grid-India report suggested only a 0.01–0.3% impact in terms of savings or volumes cleared. UBS added that the real-time market (RTM), which accounts for 30% of IEX revenue, remains unaffected for analysts see no signs of recovery in the near term. ADVERTISEMENT Kunal Kamble, Senior Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza Portfolio, said the stock has broken down from a double top formation with a breakaway gap, confirming a bearish reversal. 'The price has slipped below all major EMAs, and the RSI has plunged to 14 — an extremely oversold condition. The directional movement index (DMI) also confirms strong selling pressure,' he Matalia, Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking, echoed the caution: 'IEX breached key support zones with high volume. RSI at 17.68 shows relentless selling, and unless the price reclaims key averages with volume support, any bounce should be seen as an exit opportunity.' ADVERTISEMENT Both analysts advised traders and investors to avoid fresh long positions at current levels and wait for further clarity on the regulatory to the complexity, IEX reported strong Q1 results after market hours on Thursday, July 24. The company posted a 25% year-on-year jump in consolidated net profit to Rs 120 crore for the quarter ended June 2025. Revenue rose 19% to Rs 184.2 crore. ADVERTISEMENT Electricity volumes grew 14.9% YoY to 32.4 billion units, and Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) trading surged 149.3% to 52.7 lakh units. However, lower power demand, due to early monsoons and unseasonal rains, kept prices subdued in both DAM and RTM Day-Ahead Market saw a 45.2% YoY rise in supply liquidity, driving down average price per unit by 16% to Rs 4.41. In the Real-Time Market, prices fell 20% to Rs 3.91/ the operational beat, the regulatory uncertainty weighed heavier on investor CERC's market coupling framework set to be rolled out over the next 18 months, analysts expect continued volatility in IEX's stock. While the Q1 performance highlights strong fundamentals, the long-term implications of losing pricing control and volume leadership in key market segments are keeping investors on edge. Also read: IEX Q1 Results: Cons PAT jumps 25% YoY to Rs 120 crore, revenue rises 19% Until clarity emerges on how the new framework will impact exchange dynamics, technical experts believe any recovery may be short-lived. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
