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NBC News
13 hours ago
- Climate
- NBC News
Deep cuts to hurricane data could leave forecasters in the dark
Forecasters are set to lose some of their sharpest eyes in the sky just a few months before Atlantic Hurricane season peaks when the Department of Defense halts a key source of satellite data over cybersecurity concerns. The data comes from microwave sensors attached to three aging polar-orbiting satellites operated for both military and civilian purposes. Data from the sensors is critical to hurricane forecasters because it allows them to peer through layers of clouds and into the center of a storm, where rain and thunderstorms develop, even at night. The sensors don't rely on visible light. Losing the data — at a time when the National Weather Service is releasing fewer weather balloons and the agency is short on meteorologists because of budget cuts — will make it more likely that forecasters miss key developments in a hurricane, several hurricane experts said. Those changes help meteorologists determine what level of threat a storm may pose and therefore how emergency managers ought to prepare. Microwave data offers some of the earliest indications that sustained winds are strengthening inside a storm. 'It's really the instrument that allows us to look under the hood. It's definitely a significant loss. There's no doubt at all hurricane forecasts will be degraded because of this,' said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher and senior research associate at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science. 'They're able to detect when an eyewall forms in a tropical storm and if it's intensifying — or rapidly intensifying.' Researchers think rapid intensification is becoming more likely in tropical storms as the oceans warm as a result of human-caused climate change. The three satellites are operated for both military and civilian purposes through the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, a joint effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Department of Defense (DoD). While hurricane experts said they were concerned about losing the tool, Kim Doster, NOAA's communications director, downplayed the decision's effect on hurricane forecasting by the National Weather Service. In an email, Doster said the military's microwave data 'is a single dataset in a robust suite of hurricane forecasting and modeling tools in the NWS portfolio.' Doster said these models include data from geostationary satellites — a different system that constantly observes Earth from about 22,300 miles away and offers a vantage point that appears fixed because the satellites synchronize with Earth's rotation. They also ingest measurements from Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions, buoys, weather balloons, land-based radar and from other polar-orbiting satellites, including NOAA's Joint Polar Satellite System, which she said provides 'the richest, most accurate satellite weather observations available.' A U.S. Space Force official said the satellites and their instruments in question remain functional and that the data will be sent directly to weather satellite readout terminals across DoD. The Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center made the decision to stop processing that data and sharing it publicly, the official said. The Navy did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Earlier this week, a division of the Navy notified researchers that it would cease to process and share the data on or before June 30 and some researchers received an email from the Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center, saying that its data storage and sharing program relied on a processing station that was using an 'end-of-life' operating system with vulnerabilities. 'The operating system cannot be upgraded, poses a cybersecurity concern, and introduces risk to DoD networks,' the email, which was reviewed by NBC News, said. The move will cut the amount of microwave data available to forecasters in half, McNoldy estimated. This microwave data is also used by snow and ice scientists to track the extent of polar sea ice, which helps scientists understand long-term climate trends. Sea ice forms from frozen ocean water. It grows in coverage during winter months and typically melts during warmer times of the year. Sea ice reflects sunlight back into space, which cools the planet. That makes it an important metric to track over time. The extent of summer Arctic sea ice is trending lower because of global warming. Walt Meier, a senior research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, said his program learned of the Navy's decision earlier this week. Meier said the satellites and sensors are about 16 years old. Researchers have been preparing for them to eventually fail, but they weren't expecting the military to pull the plug on data with little warning, he said. Meier said the National Snow and Ice Data Center has relied on the military satellites for data on sea ice coverage since 1987, but will adapt its systems to use similar microwave data from a Japanese satellite, called AMSR-2, instead. 'It certainly could be a few weeks before we get that data into our system,' Meier said. 'I don't think it's going to undermine our sea ice climate data record in terms of confidence in it, but it's going to be more challenging.' The polar-orbiting satellites that are part of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program provide intermittent coverage of hurricane-prone areas. The satellites typically zip around the globe in a north-south orientation every 90-100 minutes in a relatively low orbit, Meier said. The microwave sensors scan across a narrow swath of the earth, which Meier estimated at roughly 1,500 miles. As the Earth rotates, these polar-orbiting satellites can capture imagery that helps researchers determine the structure and potential intensity of a storm, if it happens to be in their path. 'It's often just by luck, you'll get a really nice pass over a hurricane,' McNoldy said, adding that the change will reduce the geographic area covered by microwave scans and the frequency of scans of a particular storm. Andy Hazelton, a hurricane modeler and associate scientist with the University of Miami Cooperative Institute for Marine & Atmospheric Studies, said the microwave data is used in some hurricane models and also by forecasters who can access near-real time visualizations of the data. Hazelton said forecasters are always looking for visual signatures in microwave data that often provide the first evidence a storm is rapidly intensifying and building strength. The National Hurricane Center defines rapid intensification as a 35-mph or higher increase in sustained winds inside a tropical storm within 24 hours. Losing the microwave data is particularly important now because in recent years, scientists have observed an increase in rapid intensification, a trend likely fueled, in part, by climate change as ocean waters warm. A 2023 study published the journal Scientific Reports found that tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean were about 29% more likely to undergo rapid intensification from 2001 to 2020, compared to 1971 to 1990. Last year, Hurricane Milton strengthened from a tropical storm to a Category-5 hurricane in just 36 hours. Some of that increase took place overnight, when other satellite instruments offer less information. The trend is particularly dangerous when a storm, like Hurricane Idalia, intensifies just before striking the coast. 'We've certainly seen in recent years, many cases of rapid intensification ahead of landfall. That's the kind of thing you really don't want to miss,' McNoldy said, adding that microwave data 'are excellent at giving the important extra 12 hours of lead time to see the inner core changes happening.' Brian LaMarre, the former meteorologist-in-charge at the National Weather Service's weather forecasting station in Tampa Bay, said the data is also useful for predicting flood impacts as a hurricane comes ashore. 'That scan can help predict where the heavier precipitation and rainfall rates can be,' LaMarre said. 'This data is critically important to public safety.' Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30. It typically starts to peak in late summer and early fall. NOAA forecasters have predicted a more busy 2025 hurricane season than typical, with six to ten hurricanes.
Scientific American
13 hours ago
- Climate
- Scientific American
Hurricane Forecasters Lose Crucial Satellite Data, with Serious Implications
On television broadcasts and forecast maps, hurricanes appear as two-dimensional swirling vortices, belying their extremely complex three-dimensional structure. Being able to peer past the tops of clouds to see what's happening inside a storm is critical for forecasting—particularly for catching one that is about to rapidly intensify into something more dangerous. But a key source of data that provide an x-ray-like view of that structure will shut down by June 30, just before hurricane season tends to kick into high gear. 'It's certainly one of the more important data sources that we have because it provides a unique dataset,' says James Franklin, former chief of the National Hurricane Center's (NHC's) Hurricane Specialist Unit. 'It's the only way really to see through clouds and get a sense of the organizational structure of the core of a developing cyclone.' Having that information can alert forecasters to rapid intensification or other major changes hours before they become apparent in other data—providing crucial time to warn people in harm's way. This view into storm structure comes from sensors onboard Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites. Those data will no longer be taken up, processed and sent out to the National Hurricane Center or other non-Department of Defense users. The exact reasons for the shutoff are unclear but appear to be related to security concerns. On supporting science journalism If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today. 'The timing [of the shutdown] could not be worse as far as hurricane season is concerned,' and it comes along with other recent cuts and limitations to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, says Kim Wood, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Arizona. What do microwave data tell us about hurricanes? Satellites orbiting the Earth gather data in multiple wavelengths of light: visible, infrared, microwave, and so on. Each provides different kinds of information. Most people typically see images of hurricanes in the visible part of the electromagnetic spectrum, but the storms also emit microwaves. 'Everything is emitting microwaves,' Wood says. 'We're currently emitting microwaves sitting here. And it's because our temperatures are above absolute zero.' Microwaves are useful in monitoring hurricanes, Wood says, 'because the waves are so long they get through the tops of the clouds.' This lets forecasters see a storm's inner workings—particularly changes to its eye and eye wall (the circle of clouds that surround the eye and make up the strongest part of the storm). Such changes can indicate if a hurricane is strengthening or weakening. This is a particularly useful tool for monitoring storms at night, when visible satellite imagery is unavailable. Though infrared data are available at night, microwave data have 16 times their resolution, Wood says. Being able to watch a storm overnight can help avoid what Franklin calls a 'sunrise surprise'—when forecasters get the first visible imagery at daylight and find that the storm has become much stronger or better organized than they had expected. Microwave imagery is particularly useful for catching rapid intensification—defined as when a storm's winds jump by at least 35 miles per hour in 24 hours. Forecasters using microwave data can catch the process and warn people faster than they could otherwise. This was the case with Hurricane Otis in 2023, which was the first known Category 5 Pacific hurricane ever to make landfall and caused significant devastation. Microwave 'satellite imagery clued us in to the potential for this system to be really strong,' Wood says. Microwave data are also extremely useful in locating the center of weaker storms. These storms tend to lack a central eye and eye wall, and clouds higher in the atmosphere can obscure where those located lower down are circulating in visible imagery. Knowing where the center of the storm lies is important information to feed into hurricane models that forecast where the storm will go. Feeding microwave data into models can improve the accuracy with which they determine the position of the center of a storm by about 60 miles, Franklin says—noting that an incorrect position is 'going to cascade or leak into your track forecast.' This means that meteorologists who lack microwave imagery may not be able to forecast where a storm will make landfall as accurately as those who have it. Where do microwave data come from, and why were they cut? Because the microwaves emitted from Earth's surface and atmosphere are very weak, they can only be detected by satellites in very low-Earth orbit, Wood says. (The geostationary satellites that provide visible imagery orbit farther out. To have a sensor big enough to detect microwaves from their position, they would need to be the size of the Death Star, Wood says.) But because those microwave-detecting satellites orbit so close to Earth, they see less of it at any given time than geostationary satellites do—so more of them are needed to adequately monitor the planet. And there are longer time gaps between when a microwave-detecting satellite 'revisits' the same spot. That means microwave data are already limited. There are currently six satellites providing that information for U.S. weather forecasting purposes, and they are only useful for hurricanes if they serendipitously pass overhead at the right time. But now three of them are about to be turned off. 'That's a big drop in the availability of this tool,' Franklin says. The data that are about to be lost come from what are called Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS) sensors onboard three DMSP satellites. The exact reason for the shutoff is unclear, though some reports have cited security concerns. It does not appear that the concerns are with sharing the data themselves or with funding the collection and dissemination of that information. In an e-mail to Scientific American, a spokesperson for the U.S. Space Force wrote that 'DMSP satellites and instruments are still functional' and that DOD users will continue to receive the data. They referred further questions about the decision to the U.S. Navy, which had not replied to requests for comment by press time. In an e-mail to Scientific American, Maria Torres, a spokesperson for the NHC, wrote that "the DMSP is a single dataset in a robust suite of hurricane forecasting and modeling tools in the NWS portfolio.' She cited other satellites, ocean buoys and the Hurricane Hunter flights, among other tools. 'NOAA's data sources are fully capable of providing a complete suite of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve,' Torres wrote. There are other satellites that could theoretically provide microwave data—including a recently launched DOD satellite—but there has been no discussion of making those data broadly accessible, Wood says. And because forecasting models and other systems are geared toward the existing data, it is not simple to use a new data source as a substitute. 'It's one thing for a satellite to exist,' Woods say. 'It's another thing for us to be able to access it.' What we can expect this hurricane season The loss of these data is most concerning when it comes to storms that are relatively far out in the ocean (beyond the range of Hurricane Hunter aircraft) and to storms in the Pacific Ocean, where fewer such missions are flown. There are typically more monitoring flights for storms that are a threat to the U.S., particularly as they get close to land. But two thirds of all hurricane advisories are issued based solely on satellite data, Franklin says. The loss of these data alone would be extremely concerning for forecast accuracy this hurricane season—but it comes on top of the broader cuts that have already been made to the National Weather Service and NOAA. For example, there may be fewer launches of the weather balloons that help illuminate how the larger atmospheric environment will steer a storm. And it is unclear if Hurricane Hunter flights might be affected. 'Losing this data is worse than it might have been a year ago,' Wood says. 'It's pretty much guaranteed that there will be some forecast this year where significant intensification, most likely of a tropical storm [to a hurricane], is missed by six to 12 hours because these data weren't available,' Franklin says. If it is a Pacific Coast storm, this could be devastating for communities in the way. And even if it is out at sea, it is a big concern for mariners. 'Ships go down in hurricanes,' Franklin says. All in all, 'there are a lot of things that are working against forecasting' this year, he says.
Politico
13 hours ago
- Climate
- Politico
Trump kills key hurricane forecasting tool
Meteorologists are about to lose one of their best forecasting tools — in the middle of hurricane season. The Trump administration is terminating a military satellite program that has been one of the world's only sources of high-quality data that helps forecasters predict when hurricanes will make sudden, extreme gains in wind speed, writes Chelsea Harvey. The satellites are still fully functional, but the data will go dark by Monday. Such rapid intensification is notoriously dangerous and difficult to predict. It can transform tropical storms into a major hurricane in mere hours, leaving emergency managers little time to evacuate people and fortify infrastructure. The administration offered no explanation for — and did not respond to Chelsea's requests for comment about — why it was ending the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, alarming meteorologists. 'There is no sugar-coating it: Hurricane forecasts will undoubtedly be worse after this loss,' Brian McNoldy, a hurricane expert at the University of Miami, told Chelsea. 'For anyone near a hurricane-prone area, this is alarmingly bad news.' 'This decision will kill people' The military satellite program, which has operated since the 1960s, is made up of a constellation of weather satellites that collect measurements used to track everything from thunderstorms and fog to snow and ice cover. Its defining feature is its microwave sensor, which provides detailed scans key for accurate hurricane models. The program accounts for as much as half of the microwave scans that help forecasters build their predictions. 'Microwave data are already relatively sparse, so any loss — even gradual as satellites or instruments fail — is a big deal; but to abruptly end three active functioning satellites is insanity,' McNoldy said. The military program is one of the largest single sources of high-quality microwave data in the world. NASA operates a similar satellite, as does Japan. The program's cancellation is the latest in a string of Trump administration cuts that experts say are blinding the country to the impacts of climate change. Thousands of federal workers have been fired or accepted buy-outs at agencies that monitor climate change, including NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency. The White House's budget request for fiscal 2026 has proposed severe cuts to climate and weather research programs, including the elimination of NOAA's entire research arm. 'This decision will kill people,' hurricane researcher Jimmy Yunge wrote in a message to NOAA's Office of Satellite and Product Operations. Thank goodness it's Friday — thank you for tuning in to POLITICO's Power Switch. I'm your host, Arianna Skibell. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to askibell@ Today in POLITICO Energy's podcast: Brian Dabbs breaks down the Trump administration's plan to downsize the Energy Department's network of national research laboratories, which have powered U.S. scientific and technological breakthroughs for decades. Power Centers SCOTUS takes aim at nationwide injunctionsThe Supreme Court's decision today to restrict the power of federal judges to issue nationwide orders could lead to a patchwork of lower court fights over federal agency decisions, including the Trump administration's plans to roll back environmental and energy rules, write Niina H. Farah and Lesley Clark. The 6-3 decision in Trump v. CASA marks a major win for the Trump administration, which has found its efforts to remake government repeatedly blocked by the courts. Spain's big blackout: A cautionary taleThe nation's top energy regulators are trying to understand what led to the temporary collapse of Spain's and Portugal's electricity system in April as a brutal heat wave across the eastern U.S. pushes power providers to the limit, writes Peter Behr. 'I want to be clear that this is not simply a resource's fault,' a U.S. grid security executive told members of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission at a recent briefing. 'It's an engineering and operational challenge.' France tries to kick the climate can French President Emmanuel Macron said he wants to delay agreement on the European Union's next climate target, write Zia Weise, Louise Guillot and Clea Caulcutt. The move risks weakening the bloc's international green ambitions. In Other News Looking at you, Taylor: Private jet carbon emissions are soaring. Here's who pollutes the most. Fuel saving, start-stop function: Should the government stop subsidizing a car feature that 'everyone hates'? Subscriber Zone A showcase of some of our best subscriber content. Trump said he has signed a deal with China to unblock the flow of rare earth elements to U.S. companies, after a trade spat riled U.S. automakers reliant on the materials. Ireland has become the latest in a growing number of countries to entirely phase out coal-fired power plants, even as Trump has grand plans to revive what he calls 'beautiful clean coal.' California air regulators have repealed a state rule that would have mandated rail operators phase out the diesel locomotives that traverse the state. That's it for today, folks. Thanks for reading, and have a great weekend!
Yahoo
17 hours ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
The government cuts key data used in hurricane forecasting, and experts sound an alarm
Weather experts are warning that hurricane forecasts will be severely hampered by the upcoming cutoff of key data from U.S. Department of Defense satellites, the latest Trump administration move with potential consequences for the quality of forecasting. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said it would discontinue the 'ingest, processing and distribution' of data collected by three weather satellites that the agency jointly runs with the Defense Department. The data is used by scientists, researchers and forecasters, including at the National Hurricane Center. It wasn't immediately clear why the government planned to cut off the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's microwave data by Monday. The Defense Department referred questions to the Air Force, which referred them to the Navy, which did not immediately provide comment. NOAA did not immediately respond to a message. Traditional visible or infrared satellites provide data that becomes images showing the structure, intensity and temperature of a storm, according to NOAA information, along with features such as lightning. But those miss the three-dimensional details of a storm. The microwave data gives critical information that can't be gleaned from the conventional satellites, and helps peer under a regular image of a hurricane or a tropical cyclone to see what is going on inside of it. It is especially helpful at night. The news is especially noteworthy during the ongoing hurricane season and as lesser storms have become more frequent, deadly and costly as climate change is worsened by the burning of fossil fuels. Microwave imagery allows researchers and forecasters to see the center of the storm. Experts say that can help in detecting the rapid intensification of storms and in more accurately plotting the likely path of dangerous weather. 'If a hurricane, let's say, is approaching the Gulf Coast, it's a day away from making landfall, it's nighttime,' said Union of Concerned Scientists science fellow Marc Alessi. "We will no longer be able to say, OK, this storm is definitely undergoing rapid intensification, we need to update our forecasts to reflect that.' Other microwave data will be available but only roughly half as much, hurricane specialist Michael Lowry said in a blog post. He said that greatly increases the odds that forecasters will miss rapid intensification, underestimate intensity or misplace the storm. That 'will severely impede and degrade hurricane forecasts for this season and beyond, affecting tens of millions of Americans who live along its hurricane-prone shorelines,' he said. University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy called the loss of data 'alarmingly bad news' in a post on Bluesky. 'Microwave data are already relatively sparse, so any loss — even gradual as satellites or instruments fail — is a big deal; but to abruptly end three active functioning satellites is insanity.' NOAA and its National Weather Service office have been the target of several cuts and changes in President Donald Trump's second term. The Department of Government Efficiency gutted the agency's workforce, local field offices and funding. Already, hurricane forecasts were anticipated to be less accurate this year because weather balloons launches have been curtailed because of the lack of staffing. 'What happened this week is another attempt by the Trump administration to sabotage our weather and climate infrastructure,' Alessi said. ___ Alexa St. John is an Associated Press climate reporter. Follow her on X: @alexa_stjohn. Reach her at ___ Read more of AP's climate coverage at ___ The Associated Press' climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP's standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at
San Francisco Chronicle
17 hours ago
- Climate
- San Francisco Chronicle
The government cuts key data used in hurricane forecasting, and experts sound an alarm
Weather experts are warning that hurricane forecasts will be severely hampered by the upcoming cutoff of key data from U.S. Department of Defense satellites, the latest Trump administration move with potential consequences for the quality of forecasting. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said it would discontinue the 'ingest, processing and distribution' of data collected by three weather satellites that the agency jointly runs with the Defense Department. The data is used by scientists, researchers and forecasters, including at the National Hurricane Center. It wasn't immediately clear why the government planned to cut off the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's microwave data by Monday. The Defense Department referred questions to the Air Force, which referred them to the Navy, which did not immediately provide comment. NOAA did not immediately respond to a message. Traditional visible or infrared satellites provide data that becomes images showing the structure, intensity and temperature of a storm, according to NOAA information, along with features such as lightning. But those miss the three-dimensional details of a storm. The microwave data gives critical information that can't be gleaned from the conventional satellites, and helps peer under a regular image of a hurricane or a tropical cyclone to see what is going on inside of it. It is especially helpful at night. The news is especially noteworthy during the ongoing hurricane season and as lesser storms have become more frequent, deadly and costly as climate change is worsened by the burning of fossil fuels. Microwave imagery allows researchers and forecasters to see the center of the storm. Experts say that can help in detecting the rapid intensification of storms and in more accurately plotting the likely path of dangerous weather. 'If a hurricane, let's say, is approaching the Gulf Coast, it's a day away from making landfall, it's nighttime,' said Union of Concerned Scientists science fellow Marc Alessi. "We will no longer be able to say, OK, this storm is definitely undergoing rapid intensification, we need to update our forecasts to reflect that.' Other microwave data will be available but only roughly half as much, hurricane specialist Michael Lowry said in a blog post. He said that greatly increases the odds that forecasters will miss rapid intensification, underestimate intensity or misplace the storm. That 'will severely impede and degrade hurricane forecasts for this season and beyond, affecting tens of millions of Americans who live along its hurricane-prone shorelines,' he said. University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy called the loss of data 'alarmingly bad news' in a post on Bluesky. 'Microwave data are already relatively sparse, so any loss — even gradual as satellites or instruments fail — is a big deal; but to abruptly end three active functioning satellites is insanity.' NOAA and its National Weather Service office have been the target of several cuts and changes in President Donald Trump's second term. The Department of Government Efficiency gutted the agency's workforce, local field offices and funding. 'What happened this week is another attempt by the Trump administration to sabotage our weather and climate infrastructure,' Alessi said. ___ Alexa St. John is an Associated Press climate reporter. Follow her on X: @alexa_stjohn. Reach her at ___ ___
