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Newsweek
10-07-2025
- Politics
- Newsweek
'Restrainers' Urge Trump to Scale Back US Troops on China's Doorstep
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Washington, D.C., should scale back its military presence on China's doorstep to ease tensions with Beijing and adopt a more defensive posture, analysts of the "restraint" camp argue in a new report. Their proposals, published Wednesday by Washington, D.C., think tank Defense Priorities, include slashing the number of troops stationed in South Korea by over 60 percent and those in Japan's Okinawa by nearly one-third. Newsweek reached out to the U.S. Department of Defense via email with a request for comment. Why It Matters Since his first term in office, President Donald Trump's orbit has included a number of "restrainers"—advocates of a less interventionist foreign policy—including Vice President JD Vance and former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon. Of the 200,000 U.S. military personnel stationed at hundreds of bases worldwide, nearly half are based in defense treaty allies Japan and South Korea, along with a wide array of other naval and air capabilities. The proximity of these forces to China is a source of tensions, with Beijing seeks to supplant the U.S. as the dominant power in the region. Problems Identified "Asia is the region where the U.S. has the most significant interests at stake, and where the U.S. faces the fiercest competitor in China," the authors wrote. Because China now possesses the strength to deny the U.S. regional dominance, the U.S. must seek to maintain a balance of power, rather than permanent supremacy, per the report. This would mean scaling back deployments that could further escalate tensions with China—such as U.S. military trainers currently stationed in Taiwan, the self-ruled island Beijing claims as its territory—or contentious weapons systems that could trigger a regional arms race. The authors argue that U.S. forces are too heavily concentrated in a few sites along the so-called First Island Chain—the arc of islands stretching from Japan to Indonesia that the Pentagon sees as key to containing China in a conflict. Nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George Washington sails into Tokyo Bay to the U.S. naval base at Yokosuka, Kanagawa prefecture, south of Tokyo, on November 22, 2024. Nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George Washington sails into Tokyo Bay to the U.S. naval base at Yokosuka, Kanagawa prefecture, south of Tokyo, on November 22, 2024. Jiji Press/AFP via Getty Images Many of these bases, especially those in southwestern Japan, would be particularly vulnerable to strikes by China's vast missile arsenal. The report urges the U.S. to accelerate efforts to spread out some of its forces, particularly across the Second Island Chain in the Pacific, including the U.S. territory of Guam. Host countries themselves present additional complications, the authors note, including limits on U.S. military access and reluctance among local authorities to host American ground forces or operations—as seen during a series of controversies in Okinawa. Meanwhile, U.S. partners, especially Japan and the Philippines, remain heavily reliant on U.S. military support as their "Plan A" for security emergencies, the report says. While Japan and Taiwan—which face an existential threat in the form of China—have modestly raised their defense budgets, these increases are not commensurate with the security challenges they face, according to the authors. Redeploying U.S. forces, they contend, would reduce "free-riding" and require allies to take on more responsibility for their own defense. Recommendations The report calls for a sharp reduction in U.S. forces in South Korea, from nearly 29,000 to 10,000, consisting mainly of logistics and combat support personnel and two of the current four fighter squadrons. In Japan, the authors recommend reducing U.S. troops levels by about 8,000, leaving a total of 45,000—including 9,000 Marines and a single fighter squadron in Okinawa. The report also calls for one of the Okinawa-based fighter squadrons to be moved farther north, to either the Misawa or Yokota Air Base. Roughly 5,000 of the troops pulled from Okinawa should be distributed among the second island chain, including Guam as well as Palau, and the Marshall Islands—both of which share long-term security agreements with the U.S., per the report. The paper also recommends withdrawing all 500 U.S. military training personnel from Taiwan. "A balancing approach does not require a direct U.S. military defense of Taiwan, however, as the tiny island would not dramatically shift the balance of power," the authors wrote. The U.S. is the island's primary arms supplier, though Washington has carefully maintained a policy of "strategic ambiguity" on whether it would come to the island's defense. Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund, told Newsweek the report's assessment of Taiwan underestimated its value to U.S. strategic interests in the region. "I would argue that the 'tiny island' they refer to is the U.S.'s eighth-largest trading partner, produces over 90 percent of all the advanced semiconductors globally, and U.S. failure to defend it would likely accelerate the existing tendencies of U.S. allies in the region to adopt more independent policies, including potentially developing nuclear weapons," she warned.
Korea Herald
10-07-2025
- Business
- Korea Herald
Will wartime control, US troop cuts be part of tariff talks?
Amid Washington's pressure for a tariff hike on most South Korean goods, the presidential office appears to be open to widening the scope of the tariff negotiations with the US by adding elements that could reshape the two countries' alliance. Signaling that the ongoing negotiations would not only encompass "tariff and non-tariff issues" but also other elements such as investment, purchases of US goods and regional security, National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac said he "proposed that (Seoul) take a comprehensive stance in (the handling of) the package (deal)." "Tariffs and non-tariff (issues) are important, but they are part of the bigger picture in the alliance between South Korea and the United States," Wi told reporters at the presidential office Wednesday evening upon his return from a short trip to Washington. Seoul is engaged in "ongoing negotiations on the entire alliance, including trade, investment, purchases of US goods and even security," Wi also said, adding, "Wouldn't it be appropriate to negotiate with an eye on the end state of the alliance?" When asked whether transferring wartime operational control of South Korea's military from the US to South Korea, or drawing down US forces stationed in South Korea could be included in the "comprehensive" talks in which Washington ramps up the pressure on Seoul to spend more on defense, Wi did not rule out the possibilities. "In terms of the security consultation, many of the things (you mentioned) were among the discussion topics, along with defense spending. The discussions are likely to drag on. They may last longer than the other discussions," Wi said. Regarding the likelihood of the US giving South Korea the authority to lead its own defense in case of a North Korean invasion through the transfer of wartime operational control as part of the broader negotiations, Wi also said, "I don't know if that issue will come up in the security consultations. We're not there yet." On Wednesday local time, a report by US think tank Defense Priorities suggested that US troops stationed in South Korea be slashed to about 10,000 from the current 28,500, given the restricted role of the US Forces Korea -- countering threats from North Korea, not elsewhere -- amid China's growing military power and the lack of US posture in Asia to counter it. "Seoul has not granted the United States unrestricted contingency access to use its bases for operations elsewhere in the theater during a conflict. Forces left in South Korea might be sidelined in the event of a regional war," read the report. An expert in Seoul said the government appears to be desperate for progress in the US tariff talks, which have stalled, and is therefore leaving core security issues open for renegotiation, possibly in an effort to appease the Trump administration. "I'm concerned because it seems like Seoul is using bigger bait," said Lee Shin-wha, professor of political science and international relations at Korea University. "From our perspective, North Korea is an enemy, but from Trump's perspective, it is not a foe but rather a counterpart for dialogue," she also said, adding that any offer aimed at appeasing the United States "would do no good for South Korea's national interest." President Lee Jae Myung was to convene a National Security Council meeting in Seoul Thursday afternoon in what would be the first he has presided over since his inauguration on June 4. According to the presidential office on Thursday, Lee was to be briefed about the security policy blueprint for the second half of this year. As of press time, it was not clear whether the meeting would focus on South Korea's response to the US tariff uncertainties.
Washington Post
28-06-2025
- Politics
- Washington Post
Bring U.S. troops home from the Middle East
Dan Caldwell is a former senior adviser at the Defense Department and a veteran of the Iraq War. Jennifer Kavanagh is a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities. On June 21, B-2 bombers launched from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri flew 37 hours round trip to attack Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow and Natanz, while 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles were launched from a submarine in the Persian Gulf at Natanz and Isfahan. These strikes were supported by dozens of aerial refuelers, reconnaissance aircraft and fighter jets that escorted the bombers into Iran.
Nikkei Asia
23-06-2025
- Politics
- Nikkei Asia
Trump's impulsive Iran strike casts doubt over US commitment to Asia
An Air Force B-2 stealth bomber returns after the U.S. attacked key Iranian nuclear sites, at Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, U.S., on June 22, 2025. © Reuters Jennifer Kavanagh is a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, a foreign policy think tank based in Washington. "Now is the time for peace," U.S. President Donald Trump declared after authorizing U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. Unfortunately, what happens next is something even he cannot predict or control. Instead, by opting to use military force against Iran, Trump has sacrificed his own diplomatic leverage, made Americans less safe, and put his second-term foreign policy priorities -- including peace in Ukraine and a renewed U.S. focus on Asia -- at risk.
New York Times
22-06-2025
- Politics
- New York Times
After U.S. Strikes, Iran's Resolve to Build a Nuclear Weapon Could Harden
The American strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran is likely to upend the country's thinking on whether to obtain a nuclear weapon. Before the strikes, which hit early Sunday in Iran, U.S. intelligence had assessed that Iran had not made the decision to build a nuclear weapon, although its large stockpile of refined uranium put a bomb within its reach, senior officials said. Even after more than a week of Israeli strikes on Iran, senior intelligence officials said that a 2003 religious ruling by Iran's supreme leader prohibiting the development of a nuclear weapon still held. But U.S. intelligence determined that such a prohibition would likely change if the United States entered the war and struck Fordo, Iran's most secure nuclear facility, or if Israel killed the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The United States struck Fordo and two other nuclear sites, at Natanz and Isfahan. 'The sad truth here is that by striking Iran, the U.S. has made it much more likely that Iran will want to obtain nuclear weapons,' said Rosemary Kelanic, the director of the Middle East program at Defense Priorities, a think tank that advocates a restrained foreign policy. She added: 'Even if the raids knocked out all of Iran's nuclear facilities — a big if — Iran will now be more motivated than ever to rebuild their capabilities and pursue not just uranium enrichment but actual weaponization.' Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
