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Scroll.in
22-07-2025
- Politics
- Scroll.in
Quads, triads and India's South Asia paranoia
Let us not be coy. The limited war between Pakistan and India this past May, not long after the end-April terror attack near Pahalgam in Kashmir, has unlimited consequences for South Asia. As we know, avionics, strike and defensive systems got a massive workout. Vulnerabilities and strengths were duly exploited. And, duly noted – including artfully minimised losses in aircraft, equipment, facilities, and personnel – by both countries, their defense suppliers and strategic partners, and the world at large. Drone warfare truly joined the destructive drone of warfare by 'social' media, manned by keyboard warriors of South Asia. Ceasefire has now lapsed into uneasy détente. Leaders of India and Pakistan have moved on from claiming victory for their domestic audiences – while the leader of the United States as typically claimed the victory as his. We in South Asia are urged to take a deep breath and carry on. That is where the consequences enter, now brought to sharp relief by this on-again off-again conflict seemingly without end. If we were to telescope to India's security perspective – the perspective of a country that, significantly, shares borders with both China and all South Asian countries except Sri Lanka and the Maldives – the steady-state tandem enmity of Pakistan and China is joined by Bangladesh. This is being disseminated as an unholy triad, if you will, that carries both potential and demonstrable ill-will towards India. Indeed, India's newly voluble Chief of Defense Staff General Anil Chauhan indicated as much on July 8 at an event at a major establishment-oriented New Delhi think-tank. 'There is a possible convergence of interest we can talk about between China, Pakistan and Bangladesh,' said Gen Chauhan during an address at Observer Research Foundation, 'that may have implications for India's stability and security dynamics'. There are reasons for this and all of them, to India's mind, are collectively a clear and present – and future – danger. A dominant narrative in India is predicated on the South Asian ring of fire that its neighbours would be naïve to discount. Equally, India needs to accept that, while its regional strategic flex remains, its presumptuous South Asian zamindari, driven by sheer size and the geographic reality that no other South Asian country shares a land border with any other South Asian country but India, is over. Let us pan this out. Repeated calls for 'destroying' Pakistan – mainly by India's establishment-fed media and ruling party bots – is akin to Fool's Gold. This goes beyond the silliness of Indian government officials claiming that turning off the tap of the Indus will bring Pakistan to its knees. A fractured Pakistan will be a nightmare for India even though there are those among establishment hawks who see in such an eventuality the reclamation of all Kashmir. Add nuclear capability to that fracture and the future becomes a full-blown catastrophe that India's ultra-Right ecosystem nurtured with disinformation, delusion, and social media strategy masquerading as security imperatives can scarcely comprehend. Visualise generals as warlords. Visualise any number of fractious ethnic and religious groups in Pakistan which would sooner see any attack against India as a mark of faith and fulfilment. Visualise a future post-Pakistan's poverty-stricken millions sloshing about in a fractured land; and consider if any border security in the world is robust enough to withstand a flight of such dismantled people. The upshot: India will have to get its governance and hearts-and-minds act together in Kashmir, the same as Pakistan in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, if either is to withstand the other's rhetorical and actual onslaughts. (Besides, Pakistan needs to get its act together in its massively restive and deliberately under-developed Balochistan province, among other regions.) Over at the eastern arc, India's goodwill had already begun to take a hit in Bangladesh, as public opinion saw India as standing with an increasingly corrupt, electorally wayward, and essentially dictatorial Awami League government led by former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, especially during the past decade. India massively depleted its goodwill in a post-Hasina Bangladesh by standing with a belligerent Sheikh Hasina throughout the political upheaval over July and August 2024. And then, by presenting to outraged Bangladeshi citizenry the diplomatic horror of having India's national security advisor welcome an ejected Hasina at Hindon air force base near Delhi on August 5 – on live television. It was an optics disaster of epic proportion in both the mind's eye of Bangladeshi citizenry and to the emotionally charged and mission-oriented housecleaners of Bangladesh's interim government. It's a disaster from which India is yet to fully recover. It has made India's strategic and economic interests in Bangladesh, transhipment to its entire northeastern region, and India's strategic Siliguri Corridor deeply vulnerable to Bangladeshi policy squeeze. The risk of a squeeze by proxy makes matters worse for India: that slim corridor, the so-called Chicken's Neck, is a short hop for a China nestled in the hotly contested Doklam region just to the north. And for all of Bangladesh's justified moral lament for the democratic dislocation of the Hasina years and the atrocities perpetrated against students and innocent citizens over July-August 2024 – which this columnist observed first-hand – its interim government isn't blameless in adding to the tension. For his part, the head of the interim government of Bangladesh, no slouch when it comes to a networking opportunity polished by a lifetime of limelight, put several words out of place during an official visit to China this past March. Among other things, he publicly marketed Bangladesh to Chinese officials and businesses as being China's entrepôt for a 'landlocked' northeastern India. That too was an optics disaster – an observation which several senior South Asian diplomats have shared with me. With India's ongoing border spat with China, and repeated announcements by various Bangladesh entities to offer Chinese interests a deal to develop the Teesta River basin in northern Bangladesh – close to the strategic hotspot of the Siliguri Corridor – it was akin to waving a red flag to a bull in a China shop. This came in addition to the visible thaw in Bangladesh-Pakistan relations in the post-Hasina era, another huge red flag for India, among several other factors, including the release from jail of several people India views as inimical to its security. Bangladesh's interim government walked back the China-in-Northeastern India talk, but the damage was done. I've heard career-officials gripe about how the interim government should realise its interim nature, scale back knee-jerk pronouncements and Goebbelsian spin, and permit regime-agnostic professionals to go about their business in Bangladesh's national interest. In a tit-for-tat response that one could term Pakistanesque – or Indiaesque, depending on the lens – India has begun to squeeze Bangladesh by withdrawing some trading and transhipment benefits. Citing quite legitimate security reasons India has also refrained from expanding visa issuance for Bangladeshi visitors to the peak-Hasina level of a staggering 1.6 million visas a year – the figure for 2023. There are other indications of this avoidable freeze. With its heightened threat perception and what it perceives as necessary maritime deterrence, enhanced Indian naval and security activity in both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea has become the new constant. There is the west-to-east arc of Pakistan, China, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Myanmar – where China has displayed deft management to secure its energy, mineral, and territorial interests. From a regional-and-maritime perspective, Sri Lanka is of course another competitive geography for India and China and which, much like its southern co-location with neighbouring Maldives, completes the ring of encirclement for India. There are several instances of the China and India's push-and-shove in Sri Lanka, Maldives, Nepal, Myanmar, and, increasingly, Bangladesh, that this column has variously discussed over the past three years. But just how acute regional threat perception has become is indicated by a churlish incident from early this year – predating the India-Pakistan fracas in May. A Bangladeshi naval vessel was to visit Colombo port for a courtesy call, en route Karachi for a naval exercise – Bangladeshi navy ships had earlier participated in previous editions of the exercise. From available indications, India pressured Sri Lanka to deny the vessel entry. It was touch and go for a while, but the Bangladesh-Sri Lanka 'bilateral' prevailed. Or, from India's freshly jaundiced eye, the Pakistan-Bangladesh-Sri Lanka 'trilateral'. Or to be a bit more provocative, perhaps the China-Pakistan-Bangladesh-Sri Lanka 'quadrilateral' – that would, ironically, run counter to the Quad or Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between India, Japan, Australia, and the United States that is commonly perceived as a strategy to contain China in the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region. But for all that, there is monumental work to be done to mend the India-Bangladesh bilateral, a rent in which could – with or without China – ruin Eastern South Asia.
Ya Biladi
10-07-2025
- Politics
- Ya Biladi
Spain's top admiral dismisses fears of «Moroccan invasion» of Ceuta and Melilla
While 55% of Spaniards view Morocco as a «threat», Admiral Teodoro Lopez Calderon, Chief of the Defense Staff, dismissed the idea of a «Moroccan invasion of Ceuta and Melilla» on Wednesday, July 9. «The current economic and human context guarantees our security for the next 15 years», he stated. Lopez Calderon also underscored the importance of the recent defense budget increase, calling it «considerable», and noted that «the prudent use of these financial resources will enhance the capabilities of the Spanish armed forces over the next 15 years». During Wednesday's plenary session in the House of Representatives, the leader of the far-right Vox party, Santiago Abascal, warned Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez of a potential «invasion of Ceuta and Melilla». He called on the government to raise the defense budget to 5% of GDP, a demand also echoed by former U.S. President Donald Trump during the recent NATO summit in the Netherlands. As a reminder, back in April, Admiral Lopez Calderon created a task force composed of military personnel to «assess and propose responses to the risks posed by Morocco's activities, both within and beyond Spanish territory».
Toronto Sun
06-07-2025
- Business
- Toronto Sun
More soldiers, more money. Canada's top soldier extols benefits of spending boost
Published Jul 06, 2025 • 3 minute read Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney walks alongside Chief of the Defense Staff Gen. Jennie Carignan, and Minister of National Defense, David McGuinty, as they attend a tour of the Fort York Armoury in Toronto on June 9, 2025 in Toronto, Canada. Photo by Cole Burston / Getty Images CALGARY — Canada's top soldier is looking forward to a boost in military spending that includes a pay raise for military personnel at a time when uncertainty on the world stage is high. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account. Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments. Enjoy additional articles per month. Get email updates from your favourite authors. THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK. Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments Enjoy additional articles per month Get email updates from your favourite authors Don't have an account? Create Account NATO leaders — including Canada — have approved a plan to dramatically increase defence spending across the Western alliance to five per cent of gross domestic product over the next decade. Prime Minister Mark Carney said the move to five per cent of GDP — 3.5 per cent for core military spending and 1.5 per cent for defence-related infrastructure — will take place over the next 10 years. In an interview with The Canadian Press Saturday, Chief of the Defence Staff Gen. Jennie Carignan said work is underway to figure out how to distribute the almost 20 per cent pay hikes promised by Defence Minister David McGuinty. 'It's an envelope that will be adapting to what we need. Some of it will be a pay increase, some of it will be for benefit allowances for specific trades or specific functions,' Carignan said. Your noon-hour look at what's happening in Toronto and beyond. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. Please try again This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. 'Yes there will be a raise this year. Yes that's the aim so we want everything to be ready for the fall and winter time.' Carignan said the amount of the pay hike will depend on a soldier's rank and allowances will be allocated to specific trades where the CAF needs more people. 'For example recruiting and training is a priority. We want to make sure we encourage instructors in our schools so they're going to be additional benefits as an example,' she said. Chief Warrant Officer Bob McCann said the extra pay and benefits will be a morale booster for military personnel. 'We're in a great space right now where there's a lot of attention on defence. For the troops this is outstanding because this is why we joined. We want to serve. We want to be part of Canada's defence,' McCann said. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. 'We want to have equipment to train so everything that's coming is truly positive and we do have 107 trades that are highly competitive with the civilian industry so getting folks in, getting them trained, takes the pressure off the troops that are already there.' Carignan said it's been a good year for recruiting, with the CAF surpassing its objective by 2,000 for the first time in 10 years. She said fewer people are leaving the service as well. About 18 per cent of the new recruits are women. 'A very good retention rate and a lot more people coming in which means we are growing at CAF at the moment and very positive.' Carignan said plans are in place to boost the number of military personnel. 'We are focusing on going back to our full complement of regular Canadian Armed Forces members and reserve force so it's 30,000 reserves we are aiming for and 71,500 regular forces,' she said. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. 'We have additional positions that are also approved and as time goes by and we are close to our ceiling we will add additional forces.' Carignan said the extra funding will help keep Canada safe. 'Our geography does not protect us as well as it used to. We need to have more investment to actually exercise our own sovereignty here in Canada and of course this implies the Arctic,' she said. 'It is getting more contested, more traffic, more people interested in this area so of course we have to invest more in the Arctic to make sure our sovereignty is respected.' Carignan wants to see more radar bases be able to scramble jets or ships if required. 'We have to have the sensors in place — once you have seen you have to have the ability to intercept or actually act,' she said. 'This is all building blocks that goes to our providing that defensive posture we need to have in the Arctic.' Toronto & GTA Toronto Maple Leafs World Sunshine Girls World
Libya Observer
14-06-2025
- Politics
- Libya Observer
Libyan warlord seeks Italian border guard training
During his meeting with the Italian Chief of Defense Staff, General Luciano Portolano, Saddam Haftar, son of warlord Khalifa Haftar, discussed the implementation of specialized training programs for coast guard and border guard personnel. Haftar's meeting with the Italian Chief of Staff, which took place in Rome on Friday, is part of a series of meetings he is holding during his visit to Italy, according to a statement published by the media office of his father's forces. The media office said the two sides discussed the possibility of implementing specialized training programs aimed at enhancing the efficiency of Haftar's coast guard and border guard, thus contributing to strengthening the protection of the territorial waters of both Libya and Italy, according to the statement. News Tagged: Saddam haftar Italy
Axios
04-06-2025
- General
- Axios
Indian general admits "tactical mistake" and loss of jets in Pakistan clash
The Indian military in recent days confirmed some of its fighter jets were shot down during clashes with Pakistan last month. Why it matters: It's the first time the country acknowledged the losses, purportedly French-made Rafale warplanes. The latest: Chief of Defense Staff Gen. Anil Chauhan told Bloomberg on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue that what really matters is how fast troops identified the "tactical mistake, which we made," and its solution, allowing for renewed "targeting at long range." Chauhan said claims that Pakistan downed six jets are "absolutely incorrect." Social media was flooded with misinformation — flowing from both sides — during the May 7-10 skirmishes. Catch up quick: The fighting killed dozens of people. It was the most recent flashpoint between the nuclear-armed neighbors. The two have been feuding for decades. Border skirmishes between 2016 and 2018 displaced thousands of people on both sides of the Line of Control. What we're watching: What the blows between New Delhi and Islamabad mean for larger tech-supremacy debates between the West and China.
