Latest news with #DemocraticPrimaries
Fast Company
6 days ago
- Business
- Fast Company
Zohran Mamdani is on the verge of victory, and election gamblers are set to win thousands betting online
On Tuesday, New Yorkers lined up to cast their vote in the city's Democratic primaries, hoping to elect its next mayoral candidate nominee. But while some turned to the polls, others took to election betting—and made thousands along the way. In the weeks before the election, the race seemed to be between two candidates: former governor Andrew Cuomo, who left office following sexual harassment allegations in 2021, and state assemblyman and democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani. As votes started to kick in on Tuesday for the first round of the ranked-choice election, the race seemed uncertain. Early polling showed Cuomo leading the way by at least a 12-point lead weeks before. Yet tides quickly shifted, with a recent Emerson poll showing a statistical tie between the candidates. As the votes were counted, Mamdani surged as the likely nominee with Cuomo conceding later in the night. But before that happened, the internet had already crowned its winner on the prediction market trading platform Kalshi, where U.S. users can bet on current events like yesterday's elections. 'Zohran had one of the most impressive runs we've ever seen on Kalshi,' Jack Such, business and media development lead at Kalshi, told Fast Company. 'He was at 7% to win this earlier, less than a month ago.' What is election betting? Election betting is like betting on any other current events, positing the probability of one event happening over another. Still, it is a somewhat recent phenomenon. Kalshi operates like a stock market, with two parties on each side, some buying or selling shares—or bets in this case. Each 'yes' or 'no' contract is capped at $1 dollar, usually going between zero and 99 cents, with the price reflecting the probability of an event happening according the bets. Election betting gained notoriety during last year's presidential election, bringing in upwards of $3.6 billion to Polymarket, another betting platform that supposedly does not allow U.S. users. While criticism surrounds the ethics of the practice, as some argue that it may commodify decision-making and it does not promote responsible participation, it seems as if it is poised to grow. Just a day after the New York election, Kalshi hit a $2 billion valuation following a recent funding round. Additionally, the live aspect of the projection is attracting the attention of users yearning for faster results. Kalshi's projection showed Mamdani surpassing Cuomo as soon as 9 a.m. that morning. While the projection fluctuated during the day, the platform called the election in favor of Mamdani at 9:43 p.m. on social media, before Cuomo conceded. 'People who just want to know who wins love the markets because they just work faster than anything else,' Such says. Kalshi calls a victory once one of the sides reaches 99 cents for at least 10 minutes. 'It's basically like a 99% confidence interval,' Such says. 'It indicates that this market is going to resolve a certain way.' High returns For those who jumped on the election market and bet on Mamdani early, returns will prove financially beneficial should Mamdani become the Democratic nominee for mayor as expected. The best single trade for the market will see a payout of $85,650, as the trader bet $3,426 in favor of Mamdani when his probability to win was just 4%. Another user commented on the market saying, 'I want to thank all the unimaginative centrists out there,' following his $41,099 payout. During the election, the market had a live voting count powered by Decision Desk HQ, showcasing voting results in real time for users to follow. However, not all bets are made solely based on polls and electoral results, Such explained. For instance, Kalshi reported that 71% of pro-Mamdani bets were placed by women users, echoing the popular 'hot girls for Zohran' grassroots movement. 'What makes prediction markets efficient is this ability to aggregate all the information that's available,' Such says. 'like polling data, but also everything else: sentiment, what your neighbors think, what your family thinks.'
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First Post
7 days ago
- Business
- First Post
Socialist Robin Hood of Capitalist NYC: Mamdani's rise sets stage for a new kind of showdown
As Mamdani's win in NYC Democratic Primaries rattle the capitalists in the city, it leaves a learning lesson for Democrats as the struggle for relevance in the Trump-era read more The stunning victory of 33-year-old Indian-origin Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani has stunned the US financial capital and delivered an awakening to the Democratic Party. On Tuesday, Mamdani emerged as the winner of the Democratic primaries, toppling the aspirations of former New York governor Andrew Cuomo. While the journey to be the next mayor of New York City is still far for Mamdani, with current NYC Mayor Eric Adams and Republican pick Curtis Silwa being the hurdles, the Tuesday results reflected a different story. Mamdani's win raised the question of whether a Democratic Socialist can lead New York City, the mecca of wealth and capitalism. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Apart from this, Mamdani's underdog win also highlighted the challenges establishment Democrats face with younger voters and working-class voters. It emerged as a learning experience for the party, providing it with a roadmap for future polls after witnessing an embarrassing defeat to the Republicans in the 2024 US Presidential Elections. More from United States Of America As Zohran Mamdani's socialist agenda wins in NYC, MAGA attacks him for his religion Socialist Robin Hood of Capitalist NYC Apart from his innovative short-form content, Mamdani stressed affordability in his progressive campaign. From promising rent freezes and free bus transit, child care, to forming government-run grocery stores, Mamdani laid out his policies with a pledge that New Yorkers would pay less. When his opponents hurled questions about how he would pay to actualise all his promises, Mamdani had one simple response: 'I'll pay for it by taxing the rich.' He made it clear that if he came to power, he would tax the rich and big businesses in a city with enormous wealth, including Wall Street. As per his manifesto, Mamdani wants to raise New York's corporate tax rates from 7.5 per cent to 11.5 per cent, which is not a novel concept. The tax rate will be the same as that of New Jersey. Apart from this, Mamdani wants to impose an additional 2 per cent surtax on New Yorkers making more than $1 million annually. So, how is Wall Street reacting to Mamdani's win? Meanwhile, Wall Street woke up on Wednesday to a volatile situation with Trump's deal with Iran and Israel and Mamdani's win. The self-proclaimed socialists' win in the primaries sent shockwaves through Midtown offices and downtown trading floors. Hedge fund managers, venture capitalists, and investment bankers are now confronting the possibility that a mayor hostile to their interests could be running NYC. Shares of New York-based banks exposed to real estate fell on Wednesday, with Flagstar Financial and Flushing Financial down 3.8 per cent and 3.4 per cent, respectively, Reuters reported. The capitalists in the city responded to Mamdani's win in panic. Several prominent financiers, including allies of Cuomo and Mayor Eric Adams, began mobilising within hours of Mamdani's victory. As per the report, a group of hedge fund executives and real estate magnates are looking to raise $20 million to back independent or alternative candidates who could derail Mamdani's general election bid against Adams and Silva. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Some capitalists in NYC are also persuading Cuomo to run independently. Interestingly, efforts are also being made to persuade Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa to step aside, opening doors for a possible Trump administration appointment. Lessons for Democrats It is pertinent to note that Tuesday's primary came almost one year after former US President Joe Biden's disastrous debate performance against the current US President Donald Trump, which ultimately led to Trump's win in the 2024 race. Mamdani's performance reflected that Democrats need to get out of the old vanguard and rely on young faces. Many, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, believed that Democrats lost the elections in 2024 because they abandoned the country's working class. Not only this, Latinos, Arabs and Muslims, who supported Democrats in the past, supported Trump in 2024, mainly because they believed Trump offered better economic policies than then-Vice President Kamala Harris. Ultimately, this section of the American political landscape witnessed betrayal with Trump's bizarre policies. In Mamdani's case, the 33-year-old Indian-origin Democrat maintained that he was working for the welfare of the working class. 'A party where we fight for working people with no apology,' Mamdani said during his victory speech. 'A life of dignity should not be reserved for a fortunate few. It should be one that the city government guarantees for every New Yorker.' STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Hence, progressives like Mamdani can bring back the working-class voters Democrats lost in 2024. However, Republicans have often painted Mamdani as radical. Many have often called out his pro-Palestinian stance, some framing it as 'anti-semitic'. While Mamdani has spoken out against antisemitism in New York, his past positions on Israel, including declining to condemn pro-Palestinian rhetoric like 'globalise the intifada,' which some Jews see as a rallying cry for violence against them. Hence, politicians like Mamdani might not turn out to have an appetite for red and swing states. Hence, Democrats will have to maintain a fine balance. They have to reconnect with the working class, ensuring that the conservative vote won't run away. In regards to Mamdani, the popularity of his ideas will again be put to the test during the Mayoral General Elections in New York City.
Yahoo
20-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Spring Valley 2025 primary elections: Who is running? Here are the details
SPRING VALLEY- Registered Democrats have long dominated Spring Valley's voting rolls, consistently ensuring Democrats win elections and control the government. The 2025 races for mayor, two seats on the Board of Trustees, and two judgeships most likely will be determined by the winners of the Democratic Party primaries on June 24. Alan Simon, the mayor since December 2017, declined to seek another four-year term. His decision opened the door for six candidates, including one Republican, to seek the mayor's office. Simon won a Democratic Party primary in 2017 against then-Mayor Demeza Delhomme before cruising to victory in November. Simon had a controversial two terms, with his public outbursts that included cursing and yelling at residents, trustees, and staff, as well as threats to fire government workers and police officers who refused his order to arrest people. During his tenure, the village government saw the Building Department taken over by the state for lack of enforcement. The county government now inspects and prosecutes violations of fire and safety codes. Early voting runs until June 22. Polls are open 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. on Primary Day. Seeking the Democratic ballot line on June 24 are Darnett Davis, Eudson Francois, Chrispin Eugene, Schenley Vital, and Noramie Jasmin. Seeking the Republican line are Davis and Aaron Stern. Spring Valley is a predominantly working-class village with pockets of families relying on social services and other government programs. The village comprises several voting blocs, including the Hasidic Jewish voters; Haitian and other voters who hail from Caribbean nations like Jamaica and Hispanic voters. Here's a look at the Democrats in the race: Darnett Davis has been an early childhood educator and the director of the Kidsnett Child Care Program for the past 12 years. She's a member of educational and civic groups, as well as the Finkelstein Memorial Library Board of Trustees. Eudson Francois is a former village trustee for four years who has since made unsuccessful runs for other offices, including for mayor against Simon and the New York State Assembly and Senate. Francois has said he works in the health care field, focusing on adult care. He's been a volunteer track coach for the East Ramapo Central School District. Spring Valley village government: Spring Valley Mayor Simon still banned from firing court clerk, NY appellate panel rules Chrispin Eugene is a small business owner. He lost a race for trustee in 2014. Schenley Vital is an attorney and former chair of the Clarkstown Democratic Committee and the Rockland Democratic Party. His LinkedIn page says he advises developers on local and state ordinances, codes, and regulations. Vital lives in Clarkstown and would have to move into Spring Valley if elected mayor. Noramie Jasmin is a former village mayor and trustee. She was convicted in 2015 of seeking a bribe for supporting a phony $12 million, a three-story community center, after being snared in an FBI sting operation involving a Monsey developer. Jasmin attempted a political comeback in 2021 when she lost a bid for mayor. Seeking the Republican ballot line are Davis, who is running on both lines, and Aaron Stern. Two seats are up for election, and the two top vote-getters win the primary. A seat opened up when Trustee Asher Grossman, who works in insurance, declined to seek another term after 12 years in office. Trustee Joseph Gross, a former aide to Delhomme, Spring Valley's former mayor, is seeking re-election to a second term. Also running are former trustee Sherry McGill and Yakov Yosef Kaufman, who is active in the Orthodox Jewish community and is a member of Chaverim of Rockland, a volunteer emergency services organization that helps residents in need and works with the police. Gross, Kaufman, and Vital have met with Hasidic rabbinical leaders to seek the community's vote. Photos of them with some of the leaders have been published by local blogs. McGill is a math teacher with a master's degree in special education who serves on the East Ramapo Board of Education and several community organizations. So far, there are no Republicans on the November ballot. Three candidates are running for two village justice seats: incumbents James Mellion and Justin Sweet, and Ariel Dahan. Mellion is a longtime attorney in Rockland, having worked as a prosecutor and defense lawyer. Sweet is a former Clarkstown town clerk. Dahan is an attorney who lost a bid for the Rockland Legislature in 2023 on the GOP line. Steve Lieberman covers government, breaking news, courts, police, and investigations. Reach him at slieberm@ Twitter: @lohudlegal. Read more articles and bio. Our local coverage is only possible with support from our readers. This article originally appeared on Rockland/Westchester Journal News: Spring Valley's 2025 primary elections are on June 23: Who's running?
Yahoo
12-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
PIX11 Special: The 2025 NYC Democratic Mayoral Forum
NEW YORK (PIX11) — PIX11 News held a political presentation for the New York City Democratic Primaries. New York City Mayor Eric Adams will not be on the primary ballot but is pursuing a second term. After federal charges against him were dismissed, he has opted to run as an independent in the general election. More Local News That leaves six other candidates vying for the democratic nomination for November's general election. PIX11's Dan Mannarino spoke with: The 2025 NYC Democratic Mayoral Forum, Zellnor Myrie PIX11 News held a political presentation for the New York City Democratic Primaries. Zellnor Myrie is running for Mayor. Watch the video player for the full interview. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Independent
13-05-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
After Wisconsin, Democrats fear ‘MAGA money' is infiltrating another upcoming race
Will Democratic primaries become a new battleground for the MAGA -aligned right? After the party's bruising loss to Donald Trump and successive Senate defeats in 2024, the Democratic Party is at a crossroads. The next two years will determine whether the party embraces a populist, progressive path or abandons issues like transgender rights to focus on winning moderates and Republicans dis-enthused with Trumpism — or some combination of the two. Some conservatives with deep pockets seem to smell an opportunity. With the Democrats divided and the party's national leaders weaker than ever, some are hoping to steer the course of the left away from progressivism with strategic investments in off-year races. Elon Musk, the president's DOGE baron-in-chief, made a ham-fisted attempt at doing so earlier this year. With a massive investment in Wisconsin's Supreme Court race, Musk sought to block a liberal judge from cementing a left-leaning majority on the state's highest court. His efforts failed, thanks in no small part due to a massive campaign led by Democrats aimed at exposing his influence. In New York's heated mayoral primary, this phenomenon was embodied on Monday by Republican megadonor John Catsimatidis, a Trump supporter and longtime radio host who made his strategy plainly clear on WABC: "I am supporting [Andrew] Cuomo to wipe out all the socialists on June 24th.' Cuomo, the former governor, resigned in disgrace after several women came forward and accused him of sexual harassment and attempts to silence victims. He's now leading in polling for the upcoming Democratic primary after the incumbent mayor, Eric Adams, became embroiled in a corruption scandal. Hundreds of miles south in Pittsburgh, a separate tale of MAGA Republican influence in a Democratic Party primary continued to play out on the same day. A historically working-class city in the far western reach of the state, Pittsburgh is a deep-blue bastion surrounded by comparatively much purpler and redder districts. In March, the city's mayoral race made headlines after a number of high-profile Pennsylvania conservatives put money behind the effort to unseat incumbent Ed Gainey in a Democratic primary. The fears of MAGA influence have only grown more intense as the race nears the May 20 primary election. On Monday, the mayor opened up a new offensive against his rival, Corey O'Connor. Gainey, in a news release, reacted to a state election board filing detailing how a PAC supporting O'Connor, Common Sense Change, took in $150,000 during the last filing period — the majority of its contributions — from a separate PAC funded entirely by a nonprofit housed in Delaware with no public face identified only as 'Good Leadership Action Inc.' That comes despite a claim last month from Common Sense Change's administrator, Mike Mikus, stating that it was mostly funded by trade unions. Only a third of the PAC's contributions in April and early May came from three unions backing O'Connor. "My opponent has taken $160,000 from MAGA donors, been backed by 80 percent of the developer money in this race, and flipped his position on [University of Pittsburgh Medical Center] lawsuits after taking thousands from its corporate board,' said Gainey. 'Now, his backers are hiding the source of hundreds of thousands of dollars from voters because they know people in this city won't support developers, MAGA money, or whoever these people are trying to buy Pittsburgh,' he charged. Through the funneling scheme, the money's origins are untraceable. But with the mayoral race coming down to a divide along key local issues, including development and affordable housing, there are signs that specific interests are working to unseat the mayor. Democracy Wins PAC, the D.C.-based organization funded entirely by Good Leadership Inc., previously spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to block a Colorado state representative known for battling corporate landlords from winning a seat in the state senate. That time, it funneled money through a different PAC, Brighter Futures Colorado. O'Connor responded on Monday, accusing Gainey in his own statement of taking so-called 'dark money,' given the more than half a million dollars the Working Families Party has given the mayor's campaign. 'It has made campaigns nastier and more personal, and it's part of why voters are so frustrated with the political process,' O'Connor said in a statement first reported by Public Source. 'We don't coordinate with any outside groups, and I believe all campaigns and committees, no matter who they support, should be transparent about where their money is coming from. That includes both Common Sense Change and the Working Families Party,' he said. O'Connor outraised his opponent in direct funding over the course of the campaign, but dueling internal polls released by his team and Gainey's show the race tightening in the final weeks. While the Working Families Party PAC backing Gainey is registered nationally, conflating it with the groups channeling money in support of his opponent is a stretch. Founded in 1998, the Working Families Party is a well-known progressive organization that has been active in Democratic politics across the East Coast for decades, issuing endorsements and encouraging Democratic candidates to run on the party's ballot line in New York, where the party began. The WFP is supporting ten candidates in Pennsylvania in this cycle alone. The same cannot be said for either O'Connor's independent expenditure or its main backer. The website for Democracy Wins, now funding O'Connor's independent expenditure, still reads as a pre-2024 artifact. It depicts the group as an organization bent on funding a now-failed bid to oust Rep. Lauren Boebert, who switched districts to avoid a tougher reelection fight. There's no statement on the website explaining why the group has now engaged in two separate, unrelated Democratic primary races. With the election a week away, Democrats are watching to see how this proxy fight for the party's future plays out. But regardless of the result, the true outcome could already be plain: Republicans with deep pockets increasingly see the intra-party struggles of their opponents as just as relevant a battlefield as any general election in a swing state or district. As Musk takes a step back from DOGE (and likely his efforts to bankroll GOP causes to curry favor with Trump dwindle as well), many Democrats will be breathing a sigh of relief. But that doesn't mean their party's fight against conservative money is over — not by a long shot. It may just be more difficult to recognize.
