Latest news with #DerekCarty
New York Times
07-07-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Fantasy baseball cheat sheet: Bench Shota Imanaga vs. Yankees and more THE BAT X insights
Baseball season is well underway, and with a plethora of articles, statistics and metrics available, it can be challenging to know who to start, sit, fade and trade. Using Derek Carty's THE BAT X projection system, The Athletic has developed a weekly program that helps fantasy managers with difficult roster decisions. Advertisement THE BAT X has been the most accurate original projection system in fantasy for five consecutive years and provides estimates based on a wide range of metrics, including Statcast metrics like exit velocity and barrels, as well as ballpark effects, weather conditions, matchups and much more. Another important concept to understand is regression to the mean, which means players performing above their typical level of play are likely to decline, while those underperforming are likely to improve. This week's iteration suggests targeting Mike Trout, streaming reliever Bryan King, and benching Shota Imanaga against the New York Yankees. And there's more — so much more. Let's get to it. Projections are based on a 12-team, mixed-league roto format with 23-player rosters. For a more thorough explanation of THE BAT X, read Carty's explainer. For first-time readers, we compare players' year-to-date value (value to this point in the season) against their projected rest-of-season value (value for the remainder of the season and not including YTD value). Values are expressed as dollars, and $0 represents a starting caliber player in the aforementioned 12-team mixed roto league format. This gives you an idea of which players may be available on your waiver wire, their value for the remainder of the year and why you should grab them before anyone else can. The differential can tell you all you need to know, but because this is a model, you'll want to use the projections alongside knowledge of your league. For example, Agustín Ramírez (an analyst darling) is valued at $12.30 to this point in the season but is projected to have a value of $22.20 from this point forward. Since Miami's catcher Ramírez first made this list, his rostered percentage has increased, and this might be your last chance to grab him off waivers. He has power with an expected slugging percentage of .510 (85th percentile) and Hard-Hit and Barrel rates above the 74th percentile. On the season, Ramírez has 13 home runs, a .241 batting average (with an xBA of .278) and an OPS of .750, which THE BAT X thinks will improve in the second half. On the pitching side, recently activated Brandon Woodruff is the only somewhat available pitcher with a rest-of-season value over $10. The Brewers' righty won't be available in all (or many) leagues, but he won his first start against the Miami Marlins, allowing two hits and one run (a homer) while striking out eight in six innings. He'll head into his second start with a 1.50 ERA and a 0.33 WHIP. Advertisement Reliever Cade Smith, with a ROS value of $5.20, is much more available, and he's 2-3 with three saves and a 3.19 ERA, and there's a lot to like in his Statcast metrics. His xERA is 2.58, and his K% is an incredible 36.1 (97th percentile), with a Whiff rate of 35.7 (95th percentile). He had a rough outing last time out, giving up four earned runs in the 10th inning, but THE BAT X thinks he can bounce back and have a decent finish to the year. Like the waiver wire, fades are determined based on the year-to-date roster value compared to THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. Many talented players, who you could very well hold based on roster construction, are on this list. However, the point is that their success is projected to drop off; due to their YTD performance, they could be valuable trade bait and get you a higher return than their actual worth. Max Muncy tops this list after being diagnosed with a bone bruise on his left knee that's expected to sideline him for six weeks. But Jacob Wilson and Geraldo Perdomo are great examples. You could choose to roll with these two, believing in their performances to date, or you could capitalize on how they've done and flip them for players with more proven success and a better, higher-valued toolkit. I actually believe in these players and their for-average hitting; however, they lack power upside. So, if your team lacks power, you could consider/try shipping either of these two for a proven power hitter. Last week, Eric D. commented, 'The concept is — here is the data/analysis, make your own decisions,' which I thought was a succinct description of what we're doing here. THE BAT X has a proven track record as one of the most accurate projection systems, and we're showing you what it's seeing. Look at your roster and team needs, check the data and make decisions accordingly. According to THE BAT X projection system, the following pitchers are overperforming their rest-of-season projections and could be considered fades or trade bait. Last week, we discussed Andrew Abbott; since then, his YTD value has dropped over $5, and his ROS value has decreased from $-9.90 to $-11.10. The projections suggest it might be time to see what return you can get for the Reds' lefty. Trade targets are similar to the waiver wire and fades, determined by current roster value versus THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. You might want these players on your roster for the rest of the season. You can even compare this list to the 'Fade or Trade' list above and see if there are deals to be made. The names on this list are well-known, but these players haven't yet lived up to their previous or expected success, meaning you may be able to acquire them for a good value, and any of them could help you greatly in the second half of the season. Advertisement One look at Mike Trout's Statcast metrics shows the potential for a strong rest-of-season. He's in the 90th percentile or above in xwOBA, xSLG, Barrel%, Hard-Hit, LA Sweet Spot% (100th), Chase% and BB%. His problem: He's striking out too much, at a rate of 27.6%, but that could decrease to at least his career average of 22.2%, which is still not stellar, but even a 5% decline will boost his category stats. The same goes for pitching. These are established pitchers who've been underperforming expectations and could be acquired for less than their worth. Logan Gilbert returned from the IL on June 16 following an elbow injury and hasn't completed six innings since; however, he's striking out plenty of batters. His 36.8 K% is the highest of his career, while his other season stats align with his career averages. Here are hitters with favorable pitching matchups this week. Roman Anthony tops this list, and Boston's No. 1 prospect is hitting .286 in five July games, compared to .210 in June. Adapting to the majors takes a little time, and he could be hitting his stride. Here's a look at hitters who have been over- and underperforming using weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base percentage (xwOBA). Batters with an xwOBA lower than their actual wOBA could fall to numbers closer to expected, while hitters with lower wOBAs could surge as the season continues. This list includes players who have overperformed in the past 30 days, according to wOBA and xwOBA. While Brooks Lee is available on waivers and had a solid June performance (leading to more pickups), his Statcast metrics are BLUE, and his July has been dismal. Leave him where he is; a little luck elevated his June stats. The players on this list are the top underperformers in the past 30 days based on wOBA and xwOBA. Jonathan Aranda has had a slow start to July, but his xwOBA suggests this is primarily due to bad luck. He's having a breakout year, perhaps due to finally seeing regular playing time — he's on pace for almost 600 plate appearances. He's hitting the ball hard and maintaining an incredible .320 average and .879 OPS. There's no need to worry yet. Finally, we get to the top-scoring offenses of the week. For the first time in a long time, the Dodgers didn't make the list, and instead the Mets and Braves secured the top two spots. New York's Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and All-Star snub Juan Soto could be in for better weeks than usual. For Atlanta, Austin Riley, Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna, along with struggling Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II, could also see improved stats across the board. The top one-start pitchers list is limited to players rostered at 50% or less. Two-start pitchers for the week are ranked based on THE BAT X's projection system, and the list excludes those with a projected negative value. Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello are solid streaming options when they face the below-lowly Rockies this week. Bello is more available than Giolito and is 4-3 with a 3.42 ERA. His expected stats are worse than his actual ones, but that might not matter much against Colorado. At the top of the two-start pitchers list is Jacob DeGrom, who could substantially help his fantasy teams in weekly lineup leagues. Lower on the list, Will Warren, also a waiver target, gets two starts this week. He's not an ace, and his 5.02 ERA is uninspiring, but his xERA is 3.64, which plays into THE BAT X projecting him for a stronger finish to the year. This week, THE BAT X suggests considering benching Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga when he faces the Yankees. While he's 5-2 with a 2.78 ERA, his xERA is 4.12, and he carries an 18.7 K% (26th percentile). His groundball percentage is in the third percentile, which leaves him susceptible to home runs and pulled fly balls. He's still a pitcher you want in your lineup most days, but maybe not against the hard-hitting Yankees. Based on matchups, Houston's bullpen is projected to do well against Cleveland and Texas. Josh Hader, the team's saves leader with 25, is rostered everywhere. Bryan King, however, is only 8% rostered. He's pitched 36 innings for the Astros and is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA. He has 41 strikeouts on the season and a walk rate in the 88th percentile, along with a 3.0 Barrel% (97th percentile) and a 31.3 Hard-Hit% (95th percentile). If you need a reliever, King might fit the bill this week. THE BAT X projections powered by EV Analytics. (Photo of Shota Imanaga: Griffin Quinn / Getty Images)
New York Times
30-06-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Fantasy baseball cheat sheet: Add Tyler Freeman, Max Scherzer and more THE BAT X insights
Baseball season is well underway, and with a plethora of articles, statistics and metrics available, it can be challenging to know who to start, sit, fade and trade. Using Derek Carty's THE BAT X projection system, The Athletic has developed a weekly program that helps fantasy managers with difficult roster decisions. Advertisement THE BAT X has been the most accurate original projection system in fantasy for five consecutive years and provides estimates based on a wide range of metrics, including Statcast metrics like exit velocity and barrels, as well as ballpark effects, weather conditions, matchups and much more. Another important concept to understand is regression to the mean, which means players performing above their typical level of play are likely to decline, while those underperforming are likely to improve. This week's iteration suggests adding Tyler Freeman and Max Scherzer and streaming Gabe Speier. And there's more … so much more. Let's get to it. Projections are based on a 12-team, mixed-league roto format with 23-player rosters. For a more thorough explanation of THE BAT X, read Carty's explainer. For first-time readers, we compare players' year-to-date value (value to this point in the season) against their projected rest-of-season value (value for the remainder of the season and not including YTD value). Values are expressed as dollars, and $0 represents a starting caliber player in the aforementioned 12-team mixed roto league format. This gives you an idea of which players may be available on your waiver wire, their value for the remainder of the year and why you should grab them before anyone else can. The differential can tell you all you need to know, but because this is a model, you'll want to use the projections alongside knowledge of your league. For example, shortstop and outfielder Tyler Freeman has produced at a -$6.40 value thus far; however, THE BAT X projects that his value will be $13.50 over the remainder of the season. He's available in many leagues and is batting .316 in 114 at-bats, with nine stolen bases and a home run. While many of his Statcast metrics are not yet valid based on limited plate appearances, he's not chasing, striking out or whiffing much, and he has a 10.9% walk rate, while ranking in the 75th percentile in sprint speed. Also be advised that Zach Neto is day-to-day, and Luis Robert Jr. is on the 10-day injured list. We discussed RHP Max Scherzer (40 years old) last week ahead of his return to Toronto's rotation following time on the 60-day IL. In his second game of the season on June 25 against Cleveland, he gave up six hits and three runs in five innings, walking three batters and striking out four. He's only recorded eight innings pitched, but THE BAT X thinks he'll shake off the rust and improve going forward. Righty Will Warren is 5-4 with a 4.37 ERA, but his expected ERA is much lower at 3.46. He's walking too many batters and getting hit hard this season, but he's in the 89th percentile in strikeout rate. If you need Ks, the Yankees' righty is decent option. Like the waiver wire, fades are determined based on the year-to-date roster value compared to THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. It takes a little more discretion to evaluate fades and trades. For example, while THE BAT X projects that Cal Raleigh won't keep up his current pace, that doesn't mean any fantasy manager is dropping or trading him, especially at the catcher position. If you were shipping him, THE BAT X only has Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Bobby Witt Jr., Ronald Acuña Jr. and Juan Soto ranked above him in its rest-of-season projections on FanGraphs, so he's on here because of his differential. But you're probably only trading him for one of those five players in return or addressing multiple needs. And, even then, it probably only makes sense if you have a viable backup option behind the plate. Advertisement However, many players on this list could be great trade bait, like Brandon Lowe and Jacob Wilson. Both players are having excellent seasons, which helps when making offers, but they each have some weak spots in their advanced metrics. Lowe has the power but is in the 9th percentile in whiff percentage and strikes out 24.1% (36th percentile) of the time and walks at a rate of only 6.8% (31st percentile). Wilson is in the sixth(!) percentile or lower in Barrel%, Hard-Hit%, average exit velocity and bat speed. He's nearly opposite to Lowe in that he doesn't have the power metrics, but his K% is in the 99th percentile, as is his Whiff%. According to THE BAT X projection system, the following pitchers are overperforming their rest-of-season projections and could be considered fades or trade bait. Andrew Abbott tops this list for the second week in a row, with a YTD value of $20.90 but a ROS value of -$9.90. Since last week, his current value has dropped nearly $3, and THE BAT X projects the regression will continue, suggesting you may want to consider trading him before any continued decline. Trade targets are similar to the waiver wire and fades, determined by current roster value versus THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. These are players you might want on your roster for the rest of the season. You can even compare this list to the 'Fade or Trade' list above, and see if there are deals to be made. Jackson Merrill has been on the IL a couple of times this year, registering only 197 at-bats. But when he has played, he's been excellent, batting .294 with an expected average of .304 (96th percentile) and an xwOBA of .379 (88th percentile). He's struggled with plate discipline but still has an .802 OPS. THE BAT X projects his rest-of-season value at $18, higher than Riley Greene and Eugenio Suárez on the 'Fade or Trade' list above. On the pitching side, there are many familiar names from last week, but Bryce Miller is new. However, he's on the 15-day IL without a timetable to return. Three weeks ago, it was reported he would be out 4-to-6 weeks, and Mariners General Manager Justin Hollander said Miller received a platelet-rich plasma injection in his right elbow after meeting with Dr. Keith Meister. So, he could come back soon after the All-Star break and give your team a boost, but be cautious. On Saturday, Ohtani threw the fastest pitch of his career against the Royals (101.7 mph). He gave up one hit, one walk and struck out one batter in two innings. THE BAT X projects Ohtani's pitching value at $8.60 for the remainder of the year. Here are hitters with favorable pitching matchups this week. Right fielder Ramón Laureano is barely rostered in Yahoo leagues and has a favorable matchup to start the week, if you need a deep-league flier to start. His Statcast metrics aren't great, but he's batting .273 and has 10 home runs and three stolen bases on the season, so he can help in a pinch but is a streamer. If you have Kyle Schwarber rostered, you could be in for a great Monday, and his Statcast metrics are all very red (except for his K% and Whiff%, which are in the 24th and 10th percentile, respectively). Advertisement Rookie Cam Smith (3B, OF) shows up on this list a few times, and he's batting .276 with an xBA of .280 and an xwOBA of .350 (71st percentile). His sprint speed is in the 92nd percentile, and he has four stolen bases on the season to go along with seven home runs. He was drafted 14th overall by the Cubs in 2024 before being acquired by the Astros in December. He played third base in college, but the Astros moved him to right field, as former scout and now general manager Dana Brown wasn't sure he was a fit at third, based on his current build. He entered Sunday with nine defensive runs saved in RF behind only Adolis García and Fernando Tatis, so he's likely to stay in the lineup. Here's a look at hitters who have been over- and underperforming using weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base percentage (xwOBA). Batters with an xwOBA lower than their actual wOBA could fall to numbers closer to expected, while hitters with lower wOBAs could surge as the season continues. This list includes players who have overperformed in the past 30 days, according to wOBA and xwOBA. Raleigh's xwOBA of .368 is still impressive, as is Suarez's. Spencer Steer's (CIN, 1B) eight-game hitting streak might have come with a lot of luck. Despite hitting .315 in June, Steer isn't over the 35th percentile in any Statcast batting metrics except launch-angle sweet-spot percentage and chase percentage. The power's not there, and he strikes out too much, while walking too little. Buyer beware. Based on wOBA and xwOBA, the players on this list are the top underperformers in the past 30 days. New York Mets' catcher Luis Torrens was expected to take over as the starting catcher after Francisco Alvarez was sent down to Triple-A Syracuse, but Hayden Senger has been mixed into the lineup as well. Torrens is a great defensive catcher, but he's hitting .222 on the season. Still, Torrens has the advantage over Senger, who's hitting .162 in his first 37 MLB at-bats. Senger will have to improve offensively to continue to get time for the Mets, and Torrens may start improving with better luck. Jac Caglianone may have been dropped in shallower leagues after a slow start to his MLB career, which came with a lot of bad luck. He is the Royals' No. 1 prospect and No. 10 in MLB's Pipeline Rankings, so he's the real deal and should start improving. Imagine if his wOBA were .340 instead of .223, as expected. Consider taking advantage of impatient managers, particularly in keeper and dynasty leagues (though surely no one's let him go there). Finally, we get to the top-scoring offenses of the week. As always, the Dodgers are no surprise at the top, but what about Colorado at No. 3? Facing the Chicago White Sox surely helps with their expected runs per game. Regardless, this could be a good week for Hunter Goodman (C), the aforementioned Freeman (RF), Jordan Beck (LF) and maybe even Ryan McMahon (3B). We're still rolling with the changes made two weeks ago to our one- and two-start pitcher sections. Instead of including the top one-start pitchers for the week, we have limited it to those players who are rostered at 50% or less. Two-start pitchers are now ranked based on THE BAT X's projection system, excluding those who have a projected negative value. Advertisement THE BAT X projects that Shane Baz will have the best week of all pitchers meeting the above qualifications. He's 8-3 with a 4.37 ERA. THE BAT X's projected 3.82 ERA aligns with Baz's season-long xERA of 3.90. If he gets six or more Ks, as projected, he could have a good outing against the A's. Michael Soroka's YTD xERA of 3.04 is much more encouraging than his actual 4.70 ERA. He's also 75th-percentile or better in K%, BB% and Barrel%. THE BAT X projects six Ks for him too and an ERA that splits the difference between his real and expected season-long performance. At the top of the two-start pitchers list is George Kirby. Even though he's 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA, THE BAT X projects much better numbers against the Royals and Pirates. Lower down, waiver target Max Scherzer also makes the list, and he could be a spectacular add this week. For many of these pitchers, you'll want to consult the data. Righty Emerson Hancock is right below Scherzer, but his 5.30 ERA is nearly identical to his xERA of 5.23, and his Statcast metrics are blue, blue, blue. If you wander too far down, you're looking at single-week streamers to fill a hole. Based on matchups, THE BAT X thinks Seattle's bullpen could have an excellent week with a combined ERA under 4.00. Gabe Speier is 2-0 with eight holds this season. His 2.50 xERA (2.93 ERA) is in the 95th percentile, and he's above the 86th percentile in Whiff%, BB%, K% (95th) and Chase% (97th). He's also widely available. The closer on this team is the incredible Andrés Muñoz (1.16 ERA, 18 saves), but he's 97% rostered. THE BAT X projections powered by EV Analytics. (Photo of Tyler Freeman: Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)
New York Times
23-06-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Fantasy baseball cheat sheet: Fade David Peterson, Seth Lugo and more THE BAT X insights
Baseball season is well underway, and with a plethora of articles, statistics and metrics available, it can be challenging to know who to start, sit, fade and trade. Using Derek Carty's THE BAT X projection system, The Athletic has developed a weekly program that helps fantasy managers with difficult roster decisions. Advertisement THE BAT X has been the most accurate original projection system in fantasy for five consecutive years and provides estimates based on a wide range of metrics, including Statcast metrics like exit velocity and barrels, as well as ballpark effects, weather conditions, matchups and much more. Another important concept to understand is regression to the mean, which means players performing above their typical level of play are likely to decline, while those underperforming are likely to improve. This week's iteration suggests fading David Peterson and Seth Lugo, streaming Ramon Laureano and Chad Patrick, and potentially starting relief pitcher Abner Uribe. And there's more … so much more. Let's get to it. Projections are based on a 12-team, mixed-league roto format with 23-player rosters. For a more thorough explanation of THE BAT X, read Carty's explainer. For first-time readers, we compare players' year-to-date value (value to this point in the season) against their projected rest-of-season value (value for the remainder of the season and not including YTD value). Values are expressed as dollars, and $0 represents a starting caliber player in the aforementioned 12-team mixed roto league format. This gives you an idea of which players may be available on your waiver wire, their value for the remainder of the year and why you should grab them before anyone else can. The differential can tell you all you need to know, but because this is a model, you'll want to use the projections alongside knowledge of your league. For example, outfielder Jo Adell, who is more available than many players on this list, has a YTD value of $6.40, but he's projected to have a value of $11.10 for the rest of the season. Adell has already racked up 16 homers (four fewer than he hit all of last season) with a .224 batting average and a .261 expected average. Additionally, he's in the 90th percentile in Barrel% and the 94th percentile in expected slugging percentage. He could be a sneaky add if he's available on your wire. On the pitching side, Max Scherzer has been on the 60-day injured list since his May 29 start but is rejoining the rotation this week. His ROS value is $8.10, which means he's projected to be a solid starter in the league format these projections are based on, but there could be some reason for caution. Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reported that while he said his 'stuff is fine,' he also stated, 'I'm trying everything I can to manage this [thumb] …. There's no knowing, just have to get out there.' Advertisement Reese Olson (15-day IL) and Ben Brown have been on this list numerous times and consistently remain in the top three. Olson is now 4-3 with a 2.96 ERA and should be rejoining the Tigers' rotation soon. He forces ground balls and whiffs, but he's getting hit hard and needs to lower his walk rate (9.5%). THE BAT X believes he'll improve, though. Like the waiver wire, fades and trades are determined based on the year-to-date roster value compared to THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. TJ Friedl was on this list last week, and since then, both his YTD and ROS values have dropped. He's hitting .290 (though his xBA is .254), but his xSLG, average exit velocity, Barrel%, Hard-Hit% and bat speed are all at or under the 14th percentile in the league. He's not chasing, whiffing or striking out, and his walk rate is solid, but that may not be enough to sustain fantasy relevance. As a way to illustrate how to use this table in coordination with the 'Trade Targets: Hitters' list below, take a look at catcher and first baseman Yainer Diaz, who has a ROS value of $22.20 but a YTD value lower than Friedl's; Diaz's fantasy managers, therefore, might be open to a trade. According to THE BAT X, the following pitchers are overperforming their rest-of-season projections and could be considered fades or trade bait. Last week, we discussed Peterson and his declining value, which has continued to decline since then. It may not be too late to ship him for a pitcher with a higher ROS value, but you either have to act soon or hope for another good game from Peterson and act accordingly afterward. If you have any stock in Lugo or Jameson Taillon, their ROS values are projected to drop into the negative, making them essentially non-starters. Lugo only has one win in June and is now 4-5. His Statcast numbers are blue across the board, outside of his walk rate. Advanced metrics suggest he's not likely to improve and will likely continue to regress, as THE BAT X suggests. Trade targets are similar to the waiver wire and fades, determined by current roster value versus THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. These are players you might want on your roster for the rest of the season. You can even compare this list to the 'Fade or Trade' list above and see if there are deals to be made. It will be hard to obtain many players on this list, but Corey Seager and Mike Trout have negative YTD values, and their managers may be ready to deal, despite their $14.80 and $20.20 ROS values, respectively. Trout's Statcast numbers are all red, so if you can get him, all signs point to him improving. Advertisement And while Seager has been a huge disappointment to those who drafted him, his xwOBA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, Barrel% and Hard-Hit% range from the 76th percentile (BB%) to the 92nd percentile (average exit velocity). He's striking out too much, but even so, his fantasy value looks primed to improve for the rest of the season. Many of the pitchers on this list will be hard to acquire, like Tarik Skubal. But a couple of weeks ago, a commenter (Brian T.) asked, 'Would you trade Soto for Skubal? My other OFs are Tucker, Kwan, Heliot Ramos, Alvarez and Harris. My only SP of note is Crochet.' Derek Carty replied, 'Blockbuster deal alert! I think I take that deal, personally, especially if you feel like SP is more of a weakness for your team than SP is. The injury risk is always higher with an SP, but Skubal is far and away the best pitcher in fantasy right now and projects for quite a bit more value than Soto ROS, as good as Soto is.' At that time, Skubal had a YTD value of $34, and now he's at $36, while his ROS value has risen from $54.80 to $55.90, indicating improvement (from phenomenal) as predicted. Here are hitters with favorable pitching matchups this week. If you have Aaron Judge on your roster, congratulations, he's set to have an incredible start to the week. Baltimore outfielder Ramon Laureano, who is only 2% rostered on Yahoo, could fill a spot if you're desperate for a streamer. He's on this list for games on Monday, Tuesday and Friday with projected fantasy values that far exceed his underlying value. He's hitting .252 on the season with nine home runs and two stolen bases. He strikes out a lot (28.5%), but he has a .483 SLG and an .804 OPS. Here's a look at hitters who have been over- and underperforming using weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base percentage (xwOBA). Batters with an xwOBA lower than their actual wOBA could fall to numbers closer to expected, while hitters with lower wOBAs could surge as the season continues. This list includes players who have outperformed their expectations in the past 30 days, as measured by wOBA and xwOBA. Laureano is also on this list, but for different reasons. While he has a .356 wOBA, his xwOBA is significantly lower at .278, which is why he's 2% rostered and should be considered a streamer rather than a long-term solution. Of the other players on this list, Jacob Wilson has the lowest xwOBA. He's still hitting .349 with an xBA above .300, but his Barrel%, Hard-Hit%, bat speed, Chase% and walk rate are all concerning; however, his K rate is an astounding 6.4%, his Squared-Up% is 41.3 (best of the best) and his Whiff% is 9.5. He is disciplined at the plate, which makes up for a lack of power. The players on this list are the top underperformers in the past 30 days based on wOBA and xwOBA. Top prospect Jac Caglianone is batting only .203 in 64 at-bats, but his expected stats are significantly higher than his actual ones. While it's too early for his Statcast metrics to be verified, a glance will tell you that the power is there. Nearly the opposite of Wilson, Caglianone needs more discipline at the plate but has the power to elevate him in fantasy. Finally, we get to the top-scoring offenses of the week. I feel like a broken record when I say that the Dodgers and Yankees are likely to be seen on this list every week. We know these teams have big bats, but the Braves and Orioles are at three and four this week, which means the Baltimore's Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Ryan O'Hearn and Cedric Mullins could have big weeks. Catcher Adley Rutschman, however, is on the IL for the first time in his career, and interim manager Tony Mansolino said he's likely to be out through the All-Star break. Atlanta's Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies and Marcell Ozuna could have better weeks than usual. This week, we're rolling with the changes made in the last iteration to our one- and two-start pitcher sections. Instead of including the top one-start pitchers for the week, we are limiting it to those players who are rostered at 50% or less. Two-start pitchers are now ranked based on THE BAT X's projection system, excluding those who have a projected negative value. Advertisement The best projected pitcher this week under 50% rostered in a 12-team, mixed-league roto format with 23-player rosters, according to THE BAT X, is José Soriano (5-5). Soriano has a 3.39 ERA on the season with a 3.94 xERA, but he's highly available and gets a good matchup against Washington this week, wherein THE BAT X projects his ERA at 3.24 in six innings pitched. His four-seamer is fast, with a fastball velocity in the 90th percentile, but he throws his sinker and knuckle curve the most, despite his sinker yielding a .298 batting average and only an 18.3 Whiff%. His knuckle curve and slider have the best PutAway% and Whiff% among his five pitches, while his split finger has yielded the fewest hits. At the top of the two-start pitchers list is Tarik Skubal — no surprise. But if we slide down the list a little, Patrick is only 36% rostered on Yahoo and faces Pittsburgh and Colorado this week. Patrick is 3-7 with a 3.50 ERA and is not a long-term option if you're looking for an ace, but if you have a spot to fill in your rotation, he could be a decent streamer this week, according to THE BAT X projections. This week, THE BAT X suggests benching Kris Bubic. The lefty gets two starts this week, which makes him intriguing for weekly (set it and forget it) lineups, but one of those comes against the hard-hitting Dodgers. He's 6-4 with a 2.12 ERA, 3.08 xERA (81st percentile), and a red Statcast page, so he could still perform well this week, but it's risky to start anyone against Los Angeles' bats. Based on matchups, the Brewers' and Angels' bullpens get the best matchups of the week. Uribe (2-1, one save) is only 22% rostered on Yahoo with a 1.98 ERA in 36.1 IP. He's been a strikeout machine — 45 SO, 30.4 K% — and has avoided being hit hard, forcing groundballs 51.2% of the time. He could be a good option this week against the Pirates and Rockies. THE BAT X projections powered by EV Analytics. (Photo of David Peterson: Dustin Satloff / Getty Images)
New York Times
16-06-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
THE BAT X fantasy baseball cheat sheet: Stream Clayton Kershaw; fade and trade TJ Friedl
Baseball season is well underway, and with a plethora of articles, statistics and metrics available, it can be challenging to know who to start, sit, fade and trade. Using Derek Carty's THE BAT X projection system, The Athletic has developed a weekly program that helps fantasy managers with difficult roster decisions. Advertisement THE BAT X has been the most accurate original projection system in fantasy for five consecutive years and provides estimates based on a wide range of metrics, including Statcast metrics like exit velocity and barrels, as well as ballpark effects, weather conditions, matchups and much more. Another important concept to understand is regression to the mean, which means players performing above their typical level of play are likely to decline, while those underperforming are likely to improve. This week's iteration suggests streaming Clayton Kershaw, trading TJ Friedl and acquiring Adley Rutschman. And there's more … so much more. Let's get to it. Projections are based on a 12-team, mixed-league roto format with 23-player rosters. For a more thorough explanation of THE BAT X, read Carty's explainer. For first-time readers, we compare players' year-to-date value (value to this point in the season) against their projected rest-of-season value (value for the remainder of the season and not including YTD value). Values are expressed as dollars, and $0 represents a starting caliber player in the aforementioned 12-team mixed roto league format. This gives you an idea of which players may be available on your waiver wire, their value for the remainder of the year and why you should grab them before anyone else can. The differential can tell you all you need to know, but because this is a model, you'll want to use the projections alongside knowledge of your league. These players are rostered at 50% or less in 12-team, mixed-league roto formats with 23-player rosters. For example, Alejandro Kirk's YTD value has been $12.00, but THE BAT X projects that from now until the end of the year, he'll perform at a $14.40 value. To date, the Blue Jays' catcher has a .316 batting average, with an expected average nearly as high at .308 (96th percentile). His Hard-Hit% (56.5), Squared-Up% (35.7) and strikeout rate (10.4) are all 96th-percentile or better. And THE BAT X thinks he'll improve. If he's still on waivers, grab him now. Two Boston Red Sox players (Carlos Narváez and Trevor Story) also make the list this week, following Rafael Devers' departure to San Francisco. On the pitching side, Ben Brown, Reese Olson and Max Scherzer are still the top three pitchers to target based on their projected rest-of-season values, but there are some new names toward the bottom of this list. Dodgers' lefty Alex Vesia is 2-0 with three saves in 30 innings pitched and carries a 2.70 ERA and 1.03 WHIP through the season so far. His xERA is higher at 3.38, but his K rate of 35.6 is in the 96th percentile, and his Chase% and Whiff% hover around the 85th percentile. He relies heavily on his four-seamer and slider, while occasionally mixing in a changeup, and those are the only three pitches he's thrown this year, but they've all been pretty effective. Last season, in 66.1 IP, Vesia was 5-4 with five saves and a 1.76 ERA. He's barely rostered, and THE BAT X projects improved value. Like the waiver wire, fades and trades are determined based on the year-to-date roster value compared to THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. Shortstop Jacob Wilson remains atop this list, and while his YTD value of $31.30 is still incredible, it has declined over $2 since last week, and THE BAT X projects a ROS value of $2.30. Projection systems are less accurate with players newer to the league, as there is less of a 'mean' or average to refer to. However, while Wilson is still hitting .367, his Barrel%, Hard-Hit%, bat speed and average exit velocity are in the bottom 8% (or lower) of the league. More regression could be on the way. Compare Wilson's TYD and ROS values to those on the trade targets list below to see if there's a valuable trade waiting to happen. According to THE BAT X projection system, the following pitchers are overperforming their rest-of-season projections and could be considered fades or trade bait. Mets' lefty David Peterson is 5-2 with a 2.49 ERA, but his xERA is 3.65, he's getting hit hard, and his K and BB rates are middling. Peterson's fastball velocity is in the 14th percentile, and the four-seamer comes with an xBA of .344, but he has an arsenal of five pitches, the best of which has been his slider. He's highly rostered and hot, having just pitched a nine-inning shutout against the Nationals on June 11, making him great trade bait, but he's slated for two games this week (at Atlanta, at Philadelphia), so maybe hold for one more week before triggering a trade. Trade targets are similar to the waiver wire and fades, determined by current roster value versus THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. These are players you might want on your roster for the rest of the season. You can even compare this list to the 'Fade or Trade' list above, and see if there are any deals to be made. Advertisement For example, catcher Rutschman has steadily improved since April, and THE BAT X projects that his ROS value is $18.10, which is higher than that of Wilson, Friedl, Spencer Torkelson, Josh Naylor and even Seiya Suzuki. If you're desperate for a catcher, Rutschman's slow start may work to your benefit. While he's only hitting .232, his xBA is .267, his xSLG is .469, and his xwOBA is .360. He's not chasing or striking out, and he is walking, so he could certainly become more valuable as the season progresses. While it may be hard to believe that Rutschman could outperform Suzuki for the rest of the season, based on the year-to-date numbers, remember that THE BAT X has been one of the most accurate projection systems for five years. Everyone else's disbelief in the projections can be your benefit. I'm not saying to ship Suzuki for Rutschman, only that some of these hard-to-believe instances are what make THE BAT X so valuable. As for pitchers, Statcast says Dylan Cease has been unlucky to some degree, and his YTD value increased by $4.80 over the past week after holding the Dodgers(!) to three hits and no earned runs over seven innings on June 10. THE BAT X projects that from here forward, he'll carry a $22.30 value, so while his current value remains in the negative, consider acquiring him before it's too late. Like with hitters, compare pitchers in this list to the 'Fade or Trade' list above. No one on the recommended fades list carries a ROS value higher than $20.90. Here are hitters whose values are enhanced due to favorable pitching matchups this week. Yainer Diaz, who also happens to be on the trade targets list, will get JP Sears Monday, boosting his value by $24.90. Diaz has a YTD value of $8.60, but THE BAT X thinks his ROS value will be $24.60, and on Monday, it reaches $49.50. While Diaz has a .243 BA, his xBA is .277, and he's hit nine home runs this year on 251 PAs. He's also a catcher, which is typically a shallow position, although it's been slightly deeper this season. Here's a look at hitters who have been over- and underperforming using weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base percentage (xwOBA). Batters with an xwOBA lower than their actual wOBA could fall to numbers closer to expected, while hitters with lower wOBAs could surge as the season continues. This list includes players who have outperformed their expectations in the past 30 days, as measured by wOBA and xwOBA. Here again, we see Wilson and Friedl, who are also on the 'Fade or Trade' list. They've been overperforming their expected stats, which often means a regression is on the horizon. Take note. The players on this list are the top underperformers in the past 30 days based on wOBA and xwOBA. Luis Torrens tops this list and has been given more time behind the plate, but Francisco Alvarez is back from the paternity list, so Torrens can be left on waivers. Corey Seager, however, is on the 'Trade Targets' list, which makes sense. Advertisement He's been underperforming expected stats, which makes the likelihood that he improves to THE BAT X's projected ROS value of $13.90 (compared to his YTD value of -$8.70) greater. The Rangers' shortstop has severely underproduced based on preseason projections, but one look at his Statcast metrics, and you'll see why his ROS projection is elevated. He's 89th percentile or higher in xwOBA xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%. He's also in the 83rd percentile in walk rate. Finally, we get to the top-scoring offenses of the week. As noted in previous weeks, the Dodgers and Yankees will often appear here due to their potent bats, but the Arizona Diamondbacks take the top spot with matchups against Toronto and Colorado. First baseman Josh Naylor, 3B Eugenio Suarez, SS Geraldo Perdomo, 2B Ketel Marte, RF Corbin Carroll and LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. could fare better than usual this week. This week, we've made some changes to our one- and two-start pitcher sections. Instead of including the top one-start pitchers for the week, we are limiting it to those players who are rostered at 50% or less. Two-start pitchers are now ranked based on THE BAT X's projection system, excluding those who have a projected negative value. The best projected pitcher this week under 50% rostered in a 12-team, mixed-league roto format with 23-player rosters, according to THE BAT X, is Kershaw. The Dodgers lefty is 2-0 this season with a 3.25 ERA and a slightly elevated 3.55 xERA. THE BAT X projects his ERA against Washington at 3.52. Kershaw has pitched in only 27.2 innings this year, so not all of his Statcast metrics are validated, but they're not impressive. He's being hit harder than ever, but his xBA on his four-seamer is .264, compared to .429 last year. He needs to see more action before assumptions can be made about how this season will go; however, this week, THE BAT X likes him, so if you're pitchers are struggling, consider streaming Kershaw. Two-start pitchers are incredibly valuable in fantasy baseball weekly formats, so instead of providing the top five, we've decided to rank them, eliminating players with less than $0 value. Jesús Luzardo got back on track against the Chicago Cubs. He pitched six innings and gave up five hits and one run, striking out 10. In the two games before that, he gave up an average of 10 runs. According to The Athletic's Matt Gelb, ahead of the matchup against the Cubs, Luzardo made changes to address tipping off his pitches. It seemed to have worked, and THE BAT X ranks him seventh among two-start pitchers this week. Based on matchups, the Giants' bullpen could perform well this week against Cleveland and a Devers-less Boston. Tyler Rogers (33.1 IP) is available on many waiver wires and has gone 3-2 with a 1.35 ERA and only a 2.05 xERA. His Statcast numbers are all red. Don't pay attention to his fastball velocity, as he doesn't throw one; instead, he relies on a sinker and slider that come with xBAs of .230 and .195, respectively. Randy Rodriguez (30 IP) is 3-1 with a save, a 0.90 ERA and a 2.21 xERA. He gets hit a little harder, but his K rate is in the 99th percentile at 39.3%, and his walk rate is only 4.5% (93rd percentile). He's also less available than Rogers. But Camilo Doval (3-1, 32 IP) gets you saves. He's had 10 of them this year with a 1.69 ERA (but 3.19 xERA). He's on more rosters, and if he struggles at all (his Statcast numbers aren't quite as impressive), Rodriguez could get more chances for saves. But until then, it's Doval. THE BAT X projections powered by EV Analytics. (Photo of Clayton Kershaw: Kevork Djansezian / Getty Images)
New York Times
09-06-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
THE BAT X fantasy baseball cheat sheet: Add Ben Brown, stream Agustín Ramírez
Baseball season is well underway, and with a plethora of articles, statistics and metrics available, it can be challenging to know who to start, sit, fade and trade. Using Derek Carty's THE BAT X projection system, The Athletic has developed a weekly program that helps fantasy managers with difficult roster decisions. Advertisement THE BAT X has been the most accurate original projection system in fantasy for five consecutive years and provides estimates based on a wide range of metrics, including Statcast metrics like exit velocity and barrels, as well as ballpark effects, weather conditions, matchups and much more. Another important concept to understand is regression to the mean, which means players performing above their typical level of play are likely to decline, while those underperforming are likely to improve. This week's iteration suggests adding Ben Brown and streaming Agustín Ramírez. And there's more … so much more. Let's get to it. Projections are based on a 12-team, mixed-league roto format with 23-player rosters. For a more thorough explanation of THE BAT X, read Carty's explainer. For first-time readers, we compare players' year-to-date value (value to this point in the season) against their projected rest-of-season value (value for the remainder of the season and not including YTD value). Values are expressed as dollars, and $0 represents a starting caliber player in the aforementioned 12-team mixed roto league format. This gives you an idea of which players may be available on your waiver wire, their value for the remainder of the year and why you should grab them before anyone else can. The differential can tell you all you need to know, but because this is a model, you'll want to use the projections alongside knowledge of your league. For example, Colton Cowser has thus far performed at a -$17.10 value, but THE BAT X expects him to have a rest-of-season value of $10.60. Cowser has only had 37 at-bats this season so far, so his Statcast numbers aren't validated yet, but they're trending toward red. While his .216 batting average and .275 OBP don't stand out, his xBA is .243 and his xwOBA is .337 (not spectacular but better), and he's hit three home runs so far. Last year, he finished with a .242 BA, a .321 OBP, 24 home runs and nine stolen bases in 499 at-bats. At age 25, he could improve this year, but it's too early to tell by how much. On this list, J.T. Realmuto, Luis Robert Jr. and Brenton Doyle have the highest predicted rest-of-season values but are relatively highly rostered. On the pitching side, Ben Brown (who has been on this list frequently) and Reese Olson (IL15) have the best projections for the remainder of the season, despite playing at -$18.50 and $2.70 levels, respectively. Brown is still available in many leagues, while Olson (even on the injured list) is more highly rostered. To date, Brown is 3-4 with a 5.37 ERA (4.23 xERA) in 63.2 innings pitched; however, his fastball velocity is in the 74th percentile, and his strikeout percentage is 27.7 (80th percentile). Additionally, he's in the 67th percentile or better in chase percentage, whiff percentage, walk rate and extension. He could certainly improve going forward. Like the waiver wire, fades are determined based on the year-to-date roster value compared to THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. THE BAT X has suggested fading or trading Steven Kwan for weeks. In a previous iteration, Carty said of THE BAT X projection on Kwan, 'It just doesn't buy his power at all. He doesn't hit the ball hard; he doesn't hit the ball in the air much…. He has one of those extreme outlier profiles, though, where he has insane bat control, which is tougher to quantify, and maybe that just carries him beyond the projection. But all the Statcast metrics going into the projection just say he's got no power.' Advertisement Since then, Kwan's year-to-date value has dropped by over a dollar, but his ROS value has risen slightly. If you haven't traded him yet, it could be time. For players like Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cal Raleigh and Pete Alonso, you're looking for high-level players as returns. While these three have been playing great baseball, THE BAT X expects some regression. So, you could attempt to ship them for players who are also playing at a high level today and have a ROS value that matches PCA's, Raleigh's, and Alonso's YTD values. None of these players are drop candidates though. Alex Bregman, who has the only negative valuation for the remainder of the season, is highly rostered and on the IL but is nearing a return. Keep an eye on how he performs. His xBA, xSLG and xwOBA to date are all lower than his actual stats. According to THE BAT X projection system, the following pitchers are overperforming their rest-of-season projections and could be considered fades or trade bait. Kevin Gausman has a low YTD value and an even lower ROS value, so THE BAT X suggests ridding yourself of him now before it gets worse, maybe for someone on the trade targets list below. Through 76.2 IP, Gausman is 5-4 with a 3.87 ERA, which is serviceable. He relies heavily on his four-seamer (662) and split-finger (460), while sometimes turning to his slider (101). With a fastball velocity in the 52nd percentile, that strategy may not continue to work. Outside of Gausman, Kodai Senga and Merrill Kelly have performed relatively well but could be great trade bait, as THE BAT X expects regression. Trade targets are similar to the waiver wire and fades, determined by current roster value versus THE BAT X's projected rest-of-season value. These are players you might want on your roster for the rest of the season. You can even compare this list to the 'Fade or Trade' list above, and see if there are deals to be made. For example, maybe you think of shipping Kwan for Jazz Chisholm Jr., who just came off the IL and has performed below expectations but is on the hard-hitting Yankees with plenty of chances to score and bring batters in. While Chisholm's YTD value is far below Kwan's, his ROS value is superior. This isn't to say, 'Go make this trade today,' but instead to illustrate how to use the two lists in coordination. Advertisement Gunnar Henderson, whose YTD value increased by $2 over the last week, is another great player to target with a ROS valuation of $29.70. He's now hitting .265 with eight home runs and seven stolen bases. He also had a 54.7 hard-hit percentage, which is in the 96th percentile. Given his K% (26.4) and BB% (7.7), he needs to find more discipline at the plate, but if he does, he could fare much better going forward. As for pitchers, last week we discussed George Kirby, who tops this list again. Since then, his ERA has dropped from 11.42 to 6.53, and his xERA is 4.23. He has one win under his belt now and has pitched in only 20.2 innings. The rust continues to come off, and his fastball velocity (96.2 mph), K% (28.4) and BB% (4.5) are all above the 80th percentile in the league. He's still not performing as expected, so managers may be willing to let him go for a lesser return, and a ROS value of $25.10 from THE BAT X is promising. With negative YTD values, Cole Ragans, Spencer Strider and Dylan Cease may have managers willing to deal. Here are hitters with favorable pitching matchups this week. On Tuesday, many of the San Francisco Giants could have a good game, including Heliot Ramos, Matt Chapman and Jung Hoo Lee, as they go against the Colorado Rockies. Marlins Catcher and first baseman Agustín Ramírez is available on many waiver wires and could have a big game Monday evening against Pittsburgh. Here's a look at hitters who have been over- and underperforming using weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base percentage (xwOBA). Batters with an xwOBA lower than their actual wOBA could fall to numbers closer to expected, while hitters with lower wOBAs could surge as the season continues. This list includes players who have outperformed their expectations in the past 30 days, as measured by wOBA and xwOBA. Aaron Judge, with his 'underperforming' yet still incredible .435 xwOBA, is obviously fine. While Hyeseong Kim appears on this list as an overperformer, he is a rookie with only 58 at-bats, and his Statcast information can't be validated yet, outside of his incredible 87th percentile sprint speed, which has enabled him to nab six stolen. He's on a loaded Dodgers' team, but is barely rostered and hitting .414 with a 1.029 OPS and two home runs. The rookie isn't playing every day yet, but he has made a solid case for increased usage. The players on this list are the top underperformers in the past 30 days based on wOBA and xwOBA. We spoke about Ben Rice last week, but he's still around 46% rostered (Yahoo), and his Statcast metrics are all red, except for his Whiff, K and BB rates. If he can improve in those categories, his breakout could be bigger than it is right now. Luis Rengifo, who has had bad luck over the past 30 days, according to his xwOBA, is Rice's foil. His metrics, across the board, look pretty terrible, but his Whiff and K rates are 70th-percentile or above. He's still in the lineup with a .206 average and only one home run, and while his xBA is .271, I still wouldn't chase him based on his lack of power in the metrics and a 36th-percentile sprint speed. Finally, we get to the top-scoring offenses of the week. The Dodgers are on the list every week it seems, regardless of the matchup, due to their impressive roster. The Yankees face Kansas City and Boston, both of which are in fourth place in their respective divisions. Chisholm Jr., Judge, Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger could have better-than-usual weeks. THE BAT X projections have predicted the best one- and two-start pitchers of the week, as well as pitchers to consider benching and the best matchups for bullpens. The best projected pitcher this week is Spencer Strider, who is also a trade target despite having a 0-5 record and 5.40 ERA. His xERA is not much better at 5.19. He's getting whiffs, but that's about it right now. Still, THE BAT X projects he'll improve, and he's at the top of the list this week. Tarik Skubal will likely always be on the top one-start pitchers list because he's nearly unstoppable, with a 2.16 ERA and strong Statcast metrics across the board. Going against the Orioles, he could dominate. At the top of the two-start pitchers list is Chris Sale, who will face the Brewers (third place in the NL Central) and the lowly Rockies (12-53). Sale is 3-4 but with a 2.93 ERA. He's struggling with walks a little, but otherwise has been impressive with a 30.9 (!) K rate and 34.7 (!) Chase%. On this list, Griffin Canning is the most available on waivers and sports a 2.90 ERA with a 6-2 record. His expected stats are much worse than his actual stats, but this is a good week to start him against Washington and Tampa Bay. Based on matchups, the Mets' bullpen should perform well, but that's typical, as they have the best team ERA in the league at 2.85. The Cubs' Daniel Palencia has a 1.64 ERA and five saves. His strikeouts are great, but he needs to reduce his walks a bit. Still, he's around 47% rostered on Yahoo, so if he's available on your wire, consider grabbing him this week, as he faces the Phillies and Pirates. THE BAT X projections powered by EV Analytics. (Photo of Agustín Ramírez: Orlando Ramirez / Getty Images)
