Latest news with #DianaMousina
ABC News
08-07-2025
- Business
- ABC News
Why keeping rates on hold could be costly, says AMP's deputy chief economist
AMP's Deputy Chief Economist Diana Mousina speaks to The Business shortly after the Reserve Bank of Australia's shock decision to hold the cash rate steady at 3.85 per cent.
Sky News AU
08-07-2025
- Business
- Sky News AU
Rate relief expected as RBA is tipped to cut cash rate
AMP Deputy Chief Economist Diana Mousina says a rate cut is likely as the Reserve Bank looks to protect the Australian economy from weakening global conditions. "We think that including today's rate cut, we are going to get another four from here, so basically, we are seeing the cash rate ending somewhere at just under 3 per cent after a peak of 4.35 per cent," Ms Mousina told Sky News Australia. "Australia is only four or five per cent of US total imports – we're such a small share of that, our baseline tariff rate is not going to be very high." "We're not going to be impacted directly, and I think even the indirect impacts from potential flow onto China is going to be quite minimal."
Business Recorder
01-07-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Australia, NZ dollars make most of US dollar malaise
SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars paused near multi-month peaks on Tuesday after clearing another set of chart barriers to set the seal on a strong quarter, with the US currency still stuck in a broad downtrend. The Aussie held at $0.6575, having climbed 0.7% overnight to an eight-month top of $0.6584. The next bull target is at $0.6687, with support around $0.6510 and $0.6485. The kiwi dollar stood at $0.6093, after finally cracking the previous $0.6088 high to a nine-month peak of $0.6099. Resistance now lies at $0.6119 and $0.6292, with support at $0.6057 and $0.6040. The gains left the Aussie up 5.3% for the second quarter and the kiwi 7.4% higher, though the gains were mostly a function of US dollar weakness and both currencies lost ground to their European counterparts. Policymakers at the Reserve Bank of Australia have noted the US dollar's atypical weakness amid recent periods of risk aversion and a darkening global outlook. This has kept the Aussie firmer than it would normally have been and limited the competitive support it provides to exports. 'Longer term, if the USD loses its safe haven status then the Aussie may fall less in times of uncertainty which will impact its role as a shock absorber for the Australian economy,' said Diana Mousina, a deputy chief economist at AMP. 'This may put more pressure on the RBA to support growth in time of global shocks.' Minutes of the RBA's last meeting showed the board discussed the lack of extra stimulus from the Aussie, which added to the case for a cut in rates. The same will likely be true when the RBA meets next week and is one reason investors are pricing in a 95% chance it will cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60%. Expectations are so strong that even an upside surprise from retail sales data due on Wednesday is unlikely to move the dial. Median forecasts are for a rise of 0.4%, but analysts at the major local banks see a chance of a higher number based on their measures of card spending. Growth in overall household consumption is still running well short of the RBA's projections and supports market wagers for further easing to 3.10% by year-end, and maybe an ultimate floor of 2.85% which would put it in stimulative territory.
Mint
01-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Australia, NZ dollars make most of US dollar malaise
SYDNEY, - The Australian and New Zealand dollars paused near multi-month peaks on Tuesday after clearing another set of chart barriers to set the seal on a strong quarter, with the U.S. currency still stuck in a broad downtrend. The Aussie held at $0.6575, having climbed 0.7% overnight to an eight-month top of $0.6584. The next bull target is at $0.6687, with support around $0.6510 and $0.6485. The kiwi dollar stood at $0.6093, after finally cracking the previous $0.6088 high to a nine-month peak of $0.6099. Resistance now lies at $0.6119 and $0.6292, with support at $0.6057 and $0.6040. The gains left the Aussie up 5.3% for the second quarter and the kiwi 7.4% higher, though the gains were mostly a function of U.S. dollar weakness and both currencies lost ground to their European counterparts. Policymakers at the Reserve Bank of Australia have noted the U.S. dollar's atypical weakness amid recent periods of risk aversion and a darkening global outlook. This has kept the Aussie firmer than it would normally have been and limited the competitive support it provides to exports. "Longer term, if the USD loses its safe haven status then the Aussie may fall less in times of uncertainty which will impact its role as a shock absorber for the Australian economy," said Diana Mousina, a deputy chief economist at AMP. "This may put more pressure on the RBA to support growth in time of global shocks." Minutes of the RBA's last meeting showed the board discussed the lack of extra stimulus from the Aussie, which added to the case for a cut in rates. The same will likely be true when the RBA meets next week and is one reason investors are pricing in a 95% chance it will cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60%. Expectations are so strong that even an upside surprise from retail sales data due on Wednesday is unlikely to move the dial. Median forecasts are for a rise of 0.4%, but analysts at the major local banks see a chance of a higher number based on their measures of card spending. Growth in overall household consumption is still running well short of the RBA's projections and supports market wagers for further easing to 3.10% by year-end, and maybe an ultimate floor of 2.85% which would put it in stimulative territory. This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.
Sky News AU
07-06-2025
- Business
- Sky News AU
Labor's super tax includes option to avoid asset sales by allowing option to pay tax from super fund, Sky News reveals
Sky News can reveal the Albanese government's tax on superannuation balances above $3 million will allow people to pay the charge directly from their super funds. The move is designed to counter concerns that individuals will be forced to sell assets such as farms or investment properties to meet the cost of the tax. The option mirrors existing provisions under Division 293 of the tax code, the extra tax on people earning more than $250,000 a year. Under Labor's plan, the same mechanism will be available, enabling individuals to use their super balance to pay the tax, even though it will apply to unrealised capital gains. Treasurer Jim Chalmers believes the fact that people can pay the tax out of their super should negate the argument people will have to offload assets to pay the tax. The proposed tax—an extra 15 per cent on earnings for balances over $3 million—has drawn heavy criticism for including unrealised capital gains. Critics have warned that taxing unrealised gains could unfairly impact superannuants whose wealth is tied up in volatile or illiquid assets like property or businesses. Adding to concerns has been the government's decision not to index the $3 million threshold to inflation. AMP Deputy Chief Economist Diana Mousina conducted modelling that showed the average 22-year-old will be hit by the tax by the time they retire. The government has said the measure is modest, fiscally responsible, and affects only a small proportion of high-balance accounts. The Coalition has confirmed it will oppose the super tax 'every step of the way' after speculation about possible negotiation on the indexation and unrealised gains. Shadow treasurer Ted O'Brien has slammed the proposal as 'grossly unfair' and said it 'flies in the face' of Coalition values. 'To think a person can make a theoretical profit—no money in their bank—and get taxed on it every year, that's not fair,' Mr O'Brien told Sky News on Thursday. The government is expected to rely on support from the Greens to pass the legislation in the Senate. The minor party has indicated in-principle support but has floated two possible amendments - lowering the threshold to $2 million and ensuring it is indexed to inflation. Some politicians under the generous defined benefit pension schemes will not have to pay the tax until after they retire. Sky News Sunday Agenda also revealed recently that state officials on the old pension schemes will be exempted from the tax due to constitutional protections.
