Latest news with #DilinWu
Business Insider
4 days ago
- Business
- Business Insider
A Strait of Hormuz crisis could hit global oil, but China may be less vulnerable than it looks
Rising tensions in the Middle East have reignited fears that Iran could blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route. A closure could send shockwaves through global energy markets, including to China, the world's largest oil importer. Much of China's oil has historically come from the Middle East, but analysts say changes in recent years may offer some buffer from any Hormuz-induced issues. "China has been actively diversifying its energy sources and bolstering domestic reserves, which could buffer immediate shocks," Priyanka Sachdeva, a senior analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova, told Business Insider. In the first quarter of 2023, Iran was China's third-largest crude oil supplier, according to Dilin Wu, a research strategist at Pepperstone. Since 2024, China has increasingly leaned on Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Russia for crude. The three countries accounted for 20%, 14%, and 13% of Chinese imports, respectively. Countries are diversifying energy sources Beyond geopolitical risks, Iran's exports to China were troubled before the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Issues included contract breaches and sanctioned oil stuck at Chinese ports for years. "Chinese firms increasingly view Iran as a 'price-competitive yet high-risk' supplier, prompting a strategic shift toward more stable alternatives like Russia," wrote Wu. Meanwhile, China's broader oil demand is softening due to its slowing economy and a shift toward renewable energy. That dampens the urgency of any short-term supply disruption. In 2023, coal — mostly domestic supplies — accounted for 61% of China's energy mix, according to the International Energy Agency. Meanwhile, oil and natural gas made up 18% and 8% of the country's energy sources. Should the Hormuz experience an extended blockage that strains China's import flows, the East Asian nation could shift to buying more Russian, African, or US oil, said Sachdeva. Other top global economies have also been adjusting their energy strategies to account for uncertainties in geopolitics, wrote Kaho Yu, the head of natural resources at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft. The European Union is phasing out Russian energy despite higher costs and tighter markets. Japan and South Korea are seeking to lock in long-term Qatari liquified natural gas deals for supply stability, even though prices are higher than on the spot market. "The latest Middle East escalation reinforces this shift: energy policy is now shaped as much by geopolitical risk as by price," Ho wrote. Most analysts say they do not think Iran would blockade the Hormuz because it doesn't serve Tehran's interest. "Tehran knows such a move would devastate its own economy, alienate China, its largest crude customer, and risk triggering massive military retaliation," wrote Claudio Galimberti, the chief economist at Rystad Energy.
Khaleej Times
03-06-2025
- Business
- Khaleej Times
Dubai: Gold prices slip in early trade after jumping over Dh10 per gram
Gold prices slipped Dh1.5 per gram on Tuesday after jumping over Dh10 on Monday. The 24K variant of the precious metal rose Dh10.5 per gram to Dh406.75 on Monday but slipped to Dh405.25 per gram on Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, 22K, 21K and 18K were trading at Dh375.25, Dh359.75 and Dh308.5 per gram, respectively. Spot gold was trading at $3,361.67 per ounce, down 0.35 per cent. Dilin Wu, research strategist at Pepperstone, said gold extended its choppy trading pattern from mid-April last week, with bearish pressure dominating. 'A series of developments — including shifting White House rhetoric on EU tariffs, resilient US data, changing market sentiment on Treasuries, and legal challenges to tariff legitimacy — have all contributed to the recent price swings... Gold remains range-bound between $3,170 and $3,430, with downward momentum still in control,' said Wu. Looking ahead, she said uncertainty around the legal path of US tariffs and the trajectory of the tax bill will likely keep gold supported on dips, while resilient US data, the Fed's reluctance to shift dovish, and some gold selling from China on Friday may cap upside momentum. Inki Cho, financial markets strategist consultant to Exness, said gold prices were bolstered by renewed trade tensions and escalating geopolitical risks on Monday. 'President Donald Trump announced plans to double tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to 50 per cent starting June 4, a decision that comes amid ongoing legal disputes over current tariffs. Markets responded cautiously, seeking shelter in traditional hedges like gold. Further uncertainty emerged after Trump accused China of violating a recent trade truce, prompting a sharp exchange of claims between the two governments,' he said.
Yahoo
29-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Wall Street Ditches Gold for Bitcoin -- $9 Billion Says Everything
A quiet rotation is unfolding in U.S. markets and it's one worth watching. Over the past five weeks, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) ETFs have pulled in more than $9 billion in fresh inflows, led by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ:IBIT). At the same time, gold-backed ETFs have shed over $2.8 billion, Bloomberg data shows. Investors appear to be rethinking their safe-haven strategies just as U.S. fiscal concerns creep back into the spotlight from ballooning deficits to Moody's stripping the U.S. of its last AAA rating. Bitcoin recently touched a new record high of $111,980, supported by progress on stablecoin regulation and broader macro uncertainty. Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick points out that Bitcoin may now serve as a hedge on two fronts: against private-sector shocks like bank failures, and against government-linked risks, such as threats to Fed independence. What's more, its price movements have started to decouple from the Nasdaq, the dollar, and even gold. As Pepperstone's Dilin Wu put it, Bitcoin is beginning to behave less like a risk-on tech trade and more like a standalone asset class. Gold still leads on performance this year up 25%, compared to Bitcoin's 15%. But flows tell a different story. More capital is moving into Bitcoin, possibly signaling broader acceptance of its role in modern portfolios. Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood summed it up: I remain bullish on both gold and Bitcoin They remain the best hedges on currency debasement in the G7 world. In other words, investors aren't ditching gold they're making room for Bitcoin too. This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
CNA
28-05-2025
- Business
- CNA
CNA938 Rewind - Stock take today: Wall Street rally, Made in China renewal, Nikkei outlook
CNA938 Rewind On the daily markets analysis on Open For Business, Andrea Heng and Hairianto Diman speak with Dilin Wu, Research Strategist, Pepperstone Research
CNN
07-04-2025
- Business
- CNN
Global markets plunge: Trump's tariff turmoil sends European and Asian stocks into tailspin
Global markets plunged on Monday, deepening a global stocks rout triggered by US President Donald Trump's trade war and China's forceful response to unexpectedly high tariffs. Germany's Dax opened down 9%, while London's FTSE was about 5% lower. European markets were, on the whole, faring better than Asian markets in early trade. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index closed 7.9% lower, while the broader Topix finished down 7.7%. Tech giant Sony plummeted more than 10%. In mainland China, where markets reopened after a public holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed more 7% lower. The blue-chip CSI300 index also lost about 7%. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng index last traded just under 12% lower. Chinese tech giants Alibaba and Tencent were each down more than 14% and 10% respectively. 'Washington's shock decision to impose a 34% tariff on Chinese goods dealt a direct blow to core export sectors like semiconductors and EVs (electric vehicles), triggering a sharp and broad-based repricing across Asian markets,' Dilin Wu, a research strategist at Pepperstone, wrote in a research note. Trading volumes in Hong Kong surged on Monday, which she said was 'a clear sign of widespread forced liquidations and what can only be described as a full-blown panic.' Asian markets are tracking the worst two-day stretch for Wall Street stocks in five years. US stock futures plunged Sunday evening after two sessions of sell-offs that wiped away over $5.4 trillion in market value. US stocks fell sharply on Friday after China retaliated fiercely, imposing a 34% tariff on all US goods, raising fears of an escalating and damaging trade war fueled by continuing trade tension between the world's two largest economies. A commentary published Sunday by the People's Daily, the ruling Chinese Communist Party's official mouthpiece, stressed that the country has a 'strong capacity to withstand the pressure' in the face of 'US tariff bullying.' 'Faced with America's reckless tariff punches, we know exactly what we're dealing with, and we have plenty of countermeasures at hand,' it said. 'After eight years of trade war with the US, we've built up a wealth of experience in this struggle.' China's retaliation last week against the latest round of US tariffs was more sweeping than its earlier reciprocal actions and marked a significant escalation in its response, which triggered widespread market turmoil. Taiwan's Taiex closed down 9.7% on Monday. Almost all Taiwanese stocks, including TSMC and Foxconn, two of the island's best-known export powerhouses, triggered circuit breakers, according to Taiwan's Central News Agency. Both TSMC and Foxconn fell about 10%. Oil prices continued to slide Monday following last week's losses. Brent futures, the global benchmark, dropped more than 2.4%, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the US benchmark, declined by 2.5%. In Australia, the benchmark ASX 200 index closed 4.2% down, while New Zealand's NZX 50 - the first indices to close in the region on Monday - ended the day 3.7% lower. South Korea's Kospi finished 5.6% lower. The country's tech powerhouse and major growth driver Samsung tumbled more than 5%. Even gold is being sold off. Traditionally considered a safer financial bet, gold has dropped by more than 4% to around $3,030 an ounce since Thursday. US stocks are set to open sharply lower Monday, putting the S&P 500 on the precipice of a bear market — a decline of 20% from its peak and an ominous sign for investors and perhaps the broader economy. Bill Ackman, billionaire CEO of investment trust company Pershing Square, said Trump is 'losing the confidence of business leaders around the globe' and implored him to call a timeout on Monday to avoid an 'economic nuclear war.' 'By placing massive and disproportionate tariffs on our friends and our enemies alike and thereby launching a global economic war against the whole world at once, we are in the process of destroying confidence in our country as a trading partner, as a place to do business, and as a market to invest capital,' he said in a tweet. On Sunday evening, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he didn't intentionally crash markets but declined to predict how stocks would trade in the future, which added to investors' concerns. 'What's going to happen with the market? I can't tell you,' Trump said. 'But I can tell you, our country has gotten a lot stronger, and eventually it'll be a country like no other.' The president, who has long fashioned himself a deal maker, laid out what it would take to get to a deal with China on tariffs. 'I'm willing to deal with China, but they have to solve their surplus,' he said. 'We have a tremendous deficit problem with China.' Last year, the US imported $438.9 billion worth of goods from China and exported $143.5 billion to the country, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative. The president also said he wants to solve the deficit with the European Union and if they're open to that, he's open to discussion. Trump said he had fielded calls on tariffs from technology executives and world leaders over the weekend. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said in parliament on Monday that he would continue to appeal to the US to reduce tariffs. On Wednesday, Trump imposed a 24% across-the-board tariff on Japan, a defense treaty ally, which is due to take effect later this week. Ishiba said he aimed to visit the US 'as soon as possible' and wanted to convey the idea that Japan 'is not doing anything unfair.' In Taiwan, President Lai Ching-te said on Sunday that Taipei will negotiate with Washington to eliminate tariffs on both sides and actively resolve its non-tariff trade barriers. He added that Taiwan will purchase more US products to lower the trade deficit, and the island's defense ministry has put forward a military procurement list. 'We want to make it clear to the US just how much Taiwan contributes to the US economy,' Lai said. Economists at Barclays said Monday that they take a 'cautious view' on the ability of Asian governments such as South Korea and Singapore to successfully negotiate with the US to bring down tariffs and have started the process of trimming economic growth forecasts for the region. This story has been updated with addtitonal reporting and details. CNN's Junko Ogura, Gawon Bae and Samantha Waldenberg contributed reporting.
