Latest news with #Dimorphos
Hindustan Times
23-06-2025
- Science
- Hindustan Times
Asteroid collision with moon in 2032 may threaten satellites, researchers warn
If a huge asteroid smashes into the Moon in 2032, the gigantic explosion would send debris streaming towards Earth that would threaten satellites and create a spectacular meteor shower, according to researchers. The impact would be 'comparable to a large nuclear explosion in terms of the amount of energy released'.(AP) Earlier this year there were briefly fears that the 60-metre-wide (200-foot-wide) asteroid called 2024 YR4, which is big enough to level a city, would strike Earth on December 22, 2032. It was given the highest chance -- 3.1 percent -- of hitting our home planet that scientists have ever measured for such a giant space rock. Subsequent observations from telescopes definitively ruled out a direct hit on Earth. However, the odds that it will crash into the Moon have risen to 4.3 percent, according to data from the James Webb space telescope in May. A new preprint study, which has not been peer-reviewed, is the first to estimate how such a collision could affect Earth. It would be the largest asteroid to hit the Moon in around 5,000 years, lead study author Paul Wiegert of Canada's University of Western Ontario told AFP. The impact would be "comparable to a large nuclear explosion in terms of the amount of energy released", he added. Up to 100 million kilograms (220 million pounds) of material would shoot out from the Moon's surface, according to a series of simulations run by the researchers. If the asteroid hit the side of the Moon facing Earth -- which is roughly a 50-percent chance -- up to 10 percent of this debris could be pulled in by Earth's gravity over the following days, they said. 'Like a bullet' Earth's atmosphere would protect the surface from the millimetre- to centimetre-sized lunar rocks, Weigert said. 0.04-2.54 But these meteors could be capable of destroying some satellites -- and there are expected to be a lot more of those orbiting the planet by 2032. "A centimetre-sized rock travelling at tens of thousands of metres per second is a lot like a bullet," Wiegert said. In the days after the impact, there could be more than 1,000 times the normal number of meteors threatening Earth's satellites, he added. Meanwhile, those of us on the ground would be treated to a "spectacular" meteor shower lighting up the night sky, the study said. But the current odds of a direct hit on the near side of the Moon remain at just two percent, Wiegert emphasised. The asteroid is not expected to be visible again until 2028, so the world will have to wait to find out more. If a direct hit is eventually found to be likely, humanity probably has enough time to plan a mission to spare the Moon. "I'm sure it will be considered," Wiegert said. The asteroid is half as wide and has 10 percent of the mass of Dimorphos, which NASA's DART mission smashed into in 2022, successfully changing its trajectory. If 2024 YR4 is on a collision course with the Moon, it would be "a good target" for another test of our planetary defences, Wiegert said. But if not, trying to deflect something zooming so close to Earth could be a little "dangerous", he added. The preprint study, which published on the arXiv database last week, has been submitted to the Astrophysical Journal Letters.
The Sun
23-06-2025
- Science
- The Sun
Earth's satellites at risk if asteroid smashes into Moon: study
PARIS: If a huge asteroid smashes into the Moon in 2032, the gigantic explosion would send debris streaming towards Earth that would threaten satellites and create a spectacular meteor shower, according to researchers. Earlier this year there were briefly fears that the 60-metre-wide (200-foot-wide) asteroid called 2024 YR4, which is big enough to level a city, would strike Earth on December 22, 2032. It was given the highest chance -- 3.1 percent -- of hitting our home planet that scientists have ever measured for such a giant space rock. Subsequent observations from telescopes definitively ruled out a direct hit on Earth. However, the odds that it will crash into the Moon have risen to 4.3 percent, according to data from the James Webb space telescope in May. A new preprint study, which has not been peer-reviewed, is the first to estimate how such a collision could affect Earth. It would be the largest asteroid to hit the Moon in around 5,000 years, lead study author Paul Wiegert of Canada's University of Western Ontario told AFP. The impact would be 'comparable to a large nuclear explosion in terms of the amount of energy released', he added. Up to 100 million kilograms (220 million pounds) of material would shoot out from the Moon's surface, according to a series of simulations run by the researchers. If the asteroid hit the side of the Moon facing Earth -- which is roughly a 50-percent chance -- up to 10 percent of this debris could be pulled in by Earth's gravity over the following days, they said. - 'Like a bullet' - Earth's atmosphere would protect the surface from the millimetre- to centimetre-sized lunar rocks, Weigert said. 0.04-2.54 But these meteors could be capable of destroying some satellites -- and there are expected to be a lot more of those orbiting the planet by 2032. 'A centimetre-sized rock travelling at tens of thousands of metres per second is a lot like a bullet,' Wiegert said. In the days after the impact, there could be more than 1,000 times the normal number of meteors threatening Earth's satellites, he added. Meanwhile, those of us on the ground would be treated to a 'spectacular' meteor shower lighting up the night sky, the study said. But the current odds of a direct hit on the near side of the Moon remain at just two percent, Wiegert emphasised. The asteroid is not expected to be visible again until 2028, so the world will have to wait to find out more. If a direct hit is eventually found to be likely, humanity probably has enough time to plan a mission to spare the Moon. 'I'm sure it will be considered,' Wiegert said. The asteroid is half as wide and has 10 percent of the mass of Dimorphos, which NASA's DART mission smashed into in 2022, successfully changing its trajectory. If 2024 YR4 is on a collision course with the Moon, it would be 'a good target' for another test of our planetary defences, Wiegert said. But if not, trying to deflect something zooming so close to Earth could be a little 'dangerous', he added. The preprint study, which published on the arXiv database last week, has been submitted to the Astrophysical Journal Letters.
Int'l Business Times
23-06-2025
- Science
- Int'l Business Times
Earth's Satellites At Risk If Asteroid Smashes Into Moon: Study
If a huge asteroid smashes into the Moon in 2032, the gigantic explosion would send debris streaming towards Earth that would threaten satellites and create a spectacular meteor shower, according to researchers. Earlier this year there were briefly fears that the 60-metre-wide (200-foot-wide) asteroid called 2024 YR4, which is big enough to level a city, would strike Earth on December 22, 2032. It was given the highest chance -- 3.1 percent -- of hitting our home planet that scientists have ever measured for such a giant space rock. Subsequent observations from telescopes definitively ruled out a direct hit on Earth. However, the odds that it will crash into the Moon have risen to 4.3 percent, according to data from the James Webb space telescope in May. A new preprint study, which has not been peer-reviewed, is the first to estimate how such a collision could affect Earth. It would be the largest asteroid to hit the Moon in around 5,000 years, lead study author Paul Wiegert of Canada's University of Western Ontario told AFP. The impact would be "comparable to a large nuclear explosion in terms of the amount of energy released", he added. Up to 100 million kilograms (220 million pounds) of material would shoot out from the Moon's surface, according to a series of simulations run by the researchers. If the asteroid hit the side of the Moon facing Earth -- which is roughly a 50-percent chance -- up to 10 percent of this debris could be pulled in by Earth's gravity over the following days, they said. Earth's atmosphere would protect the surface from the millimetre- to centimetre-sized lunar rocks, Weigert said. 0.04-2.54 But these meteors could be capable of destroying some satellites -- and there are expected to be a lot more of those orbiting the planet by 2032. "A centimetre-sized rock travelling at tens of thousands of metres per second is a lot like a bullet," Wiegert said. In the days after the impact, there could be more than 1,000 times the normal number of meteors threatening Earth's satellites, he added. Meanwhile, those of us on the ground would be treated to a "spectacular" meteor shower lighting up the night sky, the study said. But the current odds of a direct hit on the near side of the Moon remain at just two percent, Wiegert emphasised. The asteroid is not expected to be visible again until 2028, so the world will have to wait to find out more. If a direct hit is eventually found to be likely, humanity probably has enough time to plan a mission to spare the Moon. "I'm sure it will be considered," Wiegert said. The asteroid is half as wide and has 10 percent of the mass of Dimorphos, which NASA's DART mission smashed into in 2022, successfully changing its trajectory. If 2024 YR4 is on a collision course with the Moon, it would be "a good target" for another test of our planetary defences, Wiegert said. But if not, trying to deflect something zooming so close to Earth could be a little "dangerous", he added. The preprint study, which published on the arXiv database last week, has been submitted to the Astrophysical Journal Letters.
Metro
11-06-2025
- Science
- Metro
Odds of 'city killer' asteroid hitting Moon increases – what does that mean for us?
Hiyah Zaidi Published June 11, 2025 3:58pm Updated June 11, 2025 3:58pm Link is copied Comments Earlier this year, researchers told us that there was an asteroid so big that could demolish a city — and it was heading our way. The 2024 YR4 asteroid was, at its highest, given a 3.1% chance of hitting the Earth at 2.02pm on December 22, 2032. Soon after, the projection of the asteroid was recalculated, and that chance fell to zero. But there was a small chance it would hit the Moon – and now that chance has increased (Picture: Getty) New data from the James Webb Space Telescope has meant that astronomers have refined their predictions of the asteroid's orbit, and this new information will help our understanding of 2024 YR4. Nasa says that the data from the Webb improved their knowledge of where the asteroid will go by nearly 20% (Picture: Getty) Previously, it was thought that the asteroid has a 3.8% chance of hitting the Moon. But now that chance has increased to 4.3%. However, this does mean there is still over a 95% chance that it will miss the Moon, and Nasa has reassured that the object poses no significant impact risk to Earth in 2032 and beyond. It would not even move the Moon's orbit which means nothing on Earth will change (Picture: Getty) If 2024 YR4 did hit the Moon, it would be one of the largest asteroids in recent history to hit the lunar surface. But, this could provide crucial data to prepare for future planetary defence operations. However, Nasa says the asteroid is currently too far to be detected with Earth-based telescopes. They said: 'Nasa's James Webb Space Telescope captured one more image of the asteroid before it slipped out of view in its orbit around the Sun' (Picture: MetaBallStudios / SWNS) In April, new data from the James Webb Space Telescope revealed the size of the space rock, which was previously estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters (131 to 295 feet). But now it is believed to be 53 to 67 meters, roughly the height of a 15-story building. It is thought to be made of a rocky substance rather than more robust materials like iron, so if it was ever to enter Earth's atmosphere, there could be a chance it would break into smaller pieces (Picture: European Space Agency) The American space agency uses a wide range of telescopes, both ground based and space based, to detect space objects. Near Earth Objects or NEOs are detected by comparing multiple images taken a few minutes apart of the same region of the sky. Most of the objects appealing in these pictures are stars and galaxies and their positions are fixed, so a moving NEO would be noticed since it would be in a slightly different position each time (Picture: Getty) In 2022, Nasa intentionally smashed a spacecraft into an asteroid called Dimorphos. The test was called the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), and was intended as a dress rehearsal if a similar object ever threatens Earth. The mission was a success and the spacecraft that slammed into Dimorphos managed to shift its orbit by around 32 minutes, meaning it knocked it off course (Picture: Getty)
Boston Globe
19-05-2025
- Science
- Boston Globe
Brown University researchers are developing a new way to study what's under the surface of Mars
Related : Advertisement 'But we show that the size of the ejecta blanket around a crater is sensitive to subsurface properties as well. That gives us a new observable on the surface to help constrain materials present underground.' Get Rhode Map A weekday briefing from veteran Rhode Island reporters, focused on the things that matter most in the Ocean State. Enter Email Sign Up Scientists have long studied craters for indicators of what may be below the surface of a planet. Craters can be affected by the 'strength of the subsurface, how porous it is and a host of other factors,' Brown officials said. For this latest research, however, Aleksandra Sokolowska, a UKRI fellow at Imperial College London who performed the study while a postdoctoral researcher at Brown, looked to glean more information from crater ejecta in particular, relying on computer simulations that capture the 'physics of planetary impacts' co-developed by a co-author of the study, Gareth Collins, a professor at Imperial College London. Advertisement The simulations allowed Sokolowska to vary the characteristics of subsurface material – from solid bedrock to glacial deposits and sediments such those typically found in a buried lake bed – and to observe how each could impact how far ejected debris lands when craters are formed, according to university officials. In addition to the simulation, the researchers analyzed two fresh impact craters on Mars, which, based on other data, they knew were located over solid bedrock and some subsurface ice, officials said. 'Consistent with model predictions, the crater on the icy subsurface had a much smaller ejecta blanket than the one on bedrock,' Brown officials said. 'The findings help confirm that differences in ejecta radius are detectable and reflect known subsurface properties.' According to researchers, the new method could be helpful in ongoing and upcoming spacecraft missions, including in February 2026, when the European Space Agency's Hera spacecraft is set to arrive at Dimorphos 'an asteroid that NASA hit with a projectile several years ago to test the possibility of deflecting asteroids that could be headed for Earth.' Hera will work to learn more about the asteroid's interior. Sokolowska said she is now working to turn 'this proof-of concept work into a tool.' 'The differences in ejecta radius can be quite large, and we predict that they could be measured from orbit with the HiRISE camera onboard Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter,' Sokolowska said. 'Once the method is thoroughly tested, it could become a promising new tool for investigating subsurface properties.' Christopher Gavin can be reached at
