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Mint
2 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Indian stock market: Sensex, Nifty 50 climb to 2025 high, just 2.7% away from record peak. Can they hit new milestones?
The Indian stock market weathered twists and turns in June but staged a strong comeback, bringing the frontline indices just steps away from reaching new record highs. The Nifty 50, after hitting a one-month low of 24,473 on June 13, the day Israel attacked Iran's nuclear sites, has since added 1,076 points, or 4.4%, reaching 25,549, the highest level of 2025. It is now just 2.7% away from its September peak of 26,277. Its peer, the Sensex, has also gained 3,505 points from the June 13 lows, climbing to a 2025 high of 83,755. The index is now just 2.6% away from breaking its September peak of 85,978. Despite a lack of progress on the India–US trade deal, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and sharp volatility in crude oil prices, the bulls did not lose confidence in local equities and managed to overcome each obstacle. The renewed interest in quality large-cap stocks—amid stretched valuations in the mid- and small-cap segments—has provided the fuel for a strong rebound. Despite valuation concerns, the broader markets have also participated in the latest rally. Although the Iran–Israel war had limited direct impact on Indian markets, as the country is not heavily dependent on Iranian crude, the temporary ceasefire brokered by the US and Qatar on June 24 brought fresh optimism. The temporary halt led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices and eased concerns over supply shortages and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world's oil supply passes. Oil has swung in a range of about $15 a barrel this week after prices spiked on Monday following the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sites, before President Donald Trump declared a ceasefire on Tuesday. Crude prices have dropped 11% this week, and are on track to record their worst weekly drop in the last two years. Meanwhile, the softness in the US dollar has also added another leg to the rally in domestic equities, as a falling dollar typically leads to lower commodity prices. The sustained drop in the greenback has also led to expectations that will drive more overseas inflows into Asia's third-largest economy. On Thursday, the Dollar Index dropped to a three-year low of 97 against a basket of major currencies, as expectations grew that the US economy could see an acceleration in rate cuts. This came amid speculation that President Donald Trump may announce his pick for the next Fed Chair as early as September or October, potentially creating a 'shadow' leadership structure that could steer monetary policy in a more dovish direction. On the domestic front, the trade truce between India and the US has been progressing slowly. Amid this, the latest reports suggest that India is expected to push for an extension of the exemption window from Trump's reciprocal tariffs, which are scheduled to take effect from July 9. New Delhi and Washington are still negotiating a mini trade deal, as part of a scaled-down Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA), which is likely to be finalized by September, according to media reports. Dr. V.K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, noted that a key hallmark of the ongoing bull market, which began after the Covid-led crash on March 23, 2020 (when the Nifty hit 7,511), is its ability to "climb all walls of worries." He pointed out that despite headwinds such as high inflation, aggressive monetary tightening by central banks, geopolitical tensions including wars and conflicts, and even unprecedented tariff threats, the market has continued to rally. 'It appears that the rally is unlikely to be impacted by the approaching July 9th tariff deadline imposed by President Trump. News that the July 9th deadline is likely to be extended is a positive for the market,' he added. Vijayakumar also highlighted the sustained weakness in the US dollar as a significant development, with the dollar index slipping to around 97. He said this has likely contributed to the strong foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows of ₹ 12,594 crore on Wednesday, a substantial figure, even though it includes some bulk deals. 'This big FII buying has lifted large caps like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Bharti, RIL, and Bajaj Finance, which in turn, has contributed to the sharp spike in the benchmark indices,' he said. While the market momentum remains strong, he cautioned that some near-term profit booking is likely. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Business Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Times
Asia: Stocks climb, dollar holds on trade hopes and rate bets
[HONG KONG] Asian markets rose on Friday on fresh trade hopes and the dollar held around three-year lows amid bets of cuts to US interest rate cuts. Easing concerns about Middle East tensions also added to the upbeat mood. With the Israel-Iran ceasefire holding for now, investors were able to turn their attention back to the economy and Donald Trump's tariffs as a deadline for countries to strike deals with Washington approaches. Bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut jumped this week after the US president said he had candidates in mind to succeed boss Jerome Powell when he leaves next year, with reports saying he would make an announcement as early as September. That was followed Thursday by data showing the world's top economy contracted more than previously estimated in the first quarter and consumer spending grew less than expected. Traders are now fully expecting two rate cuts this year, while there was a pick-up in bets on a third, according to Bloomberg News. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Powell, who has faced pressure from Trump to move sooner, appeared to take a dovish turn in a deposition to lawmakers this week, while several other Fed officials have also hinted at a softer approach. All three main indexes on Wall Street rallied, with the Nasdaq hitting a record high and the S&P 500 within a whisker of a new closing peak. The buying continued into Asia, with Tokyo rallying more than one per cent to break 40,000 for the first time since January, while Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney and Singapore were also well up. The prospect of lower borrowing costs sent the Dollar Index, which compares the greenback to a basket of major currencies, to its lowest level since March 2022. And while it edged slightly higher on Friday it remained under pressure. Trade war worries were also soothed slightly Thursday after the White House said Trump could extend his deadline for agreeing deals to avert painful tariffs. The president announced a swathe of levies on trading partners at the start of April but quickly said he would pause them until July 9 to allow for talks but few agreements have been reached so far. When asked if there would be another delay, press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters: 'Perhaps it could be extended, but that's a decision for the president to make. 'The deadline is not critical. 'The president can simply provide these countries with a deal if they refuse to make us one by the deadline.' This means Trump can 'pick a reciprocal tariff rate that he believes is advantageous for the United States', she added. The administration also signalled progress on trade with China, with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick saying they had 'signed and sealed' an understanding reached in Geneva last month. Those talks saw the two slash eye-watering tit-for-tat tariffs and address other key issues including China's export of rare earths used in smartphones and electric vehicles, while Beijing was keen to see an easing of restrictions on its access to tech goods. In company news, Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi soared eight per cent to a record high in Hong Kong as it enjoyed strong early orders for its latest sports utility vehicle, its second foray into the competitive electric vehicle market. AFP
France 24
2 days ago
- Business
- France 24
Stocks climb, dollar holds on trade hopes and rate bets
Easing concerns about Middle East tensions also added to the upbeat mood. With the Israel-Iran ceasefire holding for now, investors were able to turn their attention back to the economy and Donald Trump's tariffs as a deadline for countries to strike deals with Washington approaches. Bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut jumped this week after the US president said he had candidates in mind to succeed boss Jerome Powell when he leaves next year, with reports saying he would make an announcement as early as September. That was followed Thursday by data showing the world's top economy contracted more than previously estimated in the first quarter and consumer spending grew less than expected. Traders are now fully expecting two rate cuts this year, while there was a pick-up in bets on a third, according to Bloomberg News. Powell, who has faced pressure from Trump to move sooner, appeared to take a dovish turn in a deposition to lawmakers this week, while several other Fed officials have also hinted at a softer approach. All three main indexes on Wall Street rallied, with the Nasdaq hitting a record high and the S&P 500 within a whisker of a new closing peak. The buying continued into Asia, with Tokyo rallying more than one percent to break 40,000 for the first time since January, while Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney and Singapore were also well up. The prospect of lower borrowing costs sent the Dollar Index, which compares the greenback to a basket of major currencies, to its lowest level since March 2022. And while it edged slightly higher Friday it remained under pressure. Trade war worries were also soothed slightly Thursday after the White House said Trump could extend his deadline for agreeing deals to avert painful tariffs. The president announced a swathe of levies on trading partners at the start of April but quickly said he would pause them until July 9 to allow for talks but few agreements have been reached so far. When asked if there would be another delay, press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters: "Perhaps it could be extended, but that's a decision for the president to make. "The deadline is not critical. "The president can simply provide these countries with a deal if they refuse to make us one by the deadline." This means Trump can "pick a reciprocal tariff rate that he believes is advantageous for the United States", she added. The administration also signalled progress on trade with China, with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick saying they had "signed and sealed" an understanding reached in Geneva last month. Those talks saw the two slash eye-watering tit-for-tat tariffs and address other key issues including China's export of rare earths used in smartphones and electric vehicles, while Beijing was keen to see an easing of restrictions on its access to tech goods. In company news, Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi soared eight percent to a record high in Hong Kong as it enjoyed strong early orders for its latest sports utility vehicle, its second foray into the competitive electric vehicle market. Key figures at around 0230 GMT Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 1.6 percent at 40,215.36 (break) Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 0.3 percent at 24,393.49 Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.1 percent at 3,452.71 Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1702 from $1.1701 on Thursday Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3738 from $1.3725 Dollar/yen: DOWN at 144.34 yen from 144.44 yen Euro/pound: DOWN at 85.18 pence from 85.22 pence Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.5 percent at $68.08 per barrel New York - Dow: UP 0.9 percent at 43,386.84 (close) © 2025 AFP
Int'l Business Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Int'l Business Times
Stocks Climb, Dollar Holds On Trade Hopes And Rate Bets
Asian markets rose Friday on fresh trade hopes and the dollar held around three-year lows amid bets of cuts to US interest rate cuts. Easing concerns about Middle East tensions also added to the upbeat mood. With the Israel-Iran ceasefire holding for now, investors were able to turn their attention back to the economy and Donald Trump's tariffs as a deadline for countries to strike deals with Washington approaches. Bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut jumped this week after the US president said he had candidates in mind to succeed boss Jerome Powell when he leaves next year, with reports saying he would make an announcement as early as September. That was followed Thursday by data showing the world's top economy contracted more than previously estimated in the first quarter and consumer spending grew less than expected. Traders are now fully expecting two rate cuts this year, while there was a pick-up in bets on a third, according to Bloomberg News. Powell, who has faced pressure from Trump to move sooner, appeared to take a dovish turn in a deposition to lawmakers this week, while several other Fed officials have also hinted at a softer approach. All three main indexes on Wall Street rallied, with the Nasdaq hitting a record high and the S&P 500 within a whisker of a new closing peak. The buying continued into Asia, with Tokyo rallying more than one percent to break 40,000 for the first time since January, while Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney and Singapore were also well up. The prospect of lower borrowing costs sent the Dollar Index, which compares the greenback to a basket of major currencies, to its lowest level since March 2022. And while it edged slightly higher Friday it remained under pressure. Trade war worries were also soothed slightly Thursday after the White House said Trump could extend his deadline for agreeing deals to avert painful tariffs. The president announced a swathe of levies on trading partners at the start of April but quickly said he would pause them until July 9 to allow for talks but few agreements have been reached so far. When asked if there would be another delay, press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters: "Perhaps it could be extended, but that's a decision for the president to make. "The deadline is not critical. "The president can simply provide these countries with a deal if they refuse to make us one by the deadline." This means Trump can "pick a reciprocal tariff rate that he believes is advantageous for the United States", she added. The administration also signalled progress on trade with China, with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick saying they had "signed and sealed" an understanding reached in Geneva last month. Those talks saw the two slash eye-watering tit-for-tat tariffs and address other key issues including China's export of rare earths used in smartphones and electric vehicles, while Beijing was keen to see an easing of restrictions on its access to tech goods. In company news, Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi soared eight percent to a record high in Hong Kong as it enjoyed strong early orders for its latest sports utility vehicle, its second foray into the competitive electric vehicle market. Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 1.6 percent at 40,215.36 (break) Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 0.3 percent at 24,393.49 Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.1 percent at 3,452.71 Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1702 from $1.1701 on Thursday Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3738 from $1.3725 Dollar/yen: DOWN at 144.34 yen from 144.44 yen Euro/pound: DOWN at 85.18 pence from 85.22 pence West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.5 percent at $65.57 per barrel Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.5 percent at $68.08 per barrel New York - Dow: UP 0.9 percent at 43,386.84 (close) London - FTSE 100: UP 0.2 percent at 8,735.60 (close)
RTHK
2 days ago
- Business
- RTHK
Dollar slides as Trump eyes new Fed boss
Dollar slides as Trump eyes new Fed boss The US dollar hit its lowest level since March 2022. File photo: Reuters The US dollar hit a three-year low on Thursday as US President Donald Trump eyed candidates to succeed Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell, fueling bets of cuts to US interest rates. But Wall Street rose handsomely, lifting the S&P 500 to near a closing record, following solid earnings from chip company Micron and a signal that the White House could extend an upcoming tariff deadline on trading partners. Trump had suggested Wednesday that he was lining up Powell's replacement ahead of an expected departure next year. "No decisions are imminent, although the president has the right to change his mind," a White House official told AFP. The Dollar Index, which compares the greenback to a basket of major currencies, hit its lowest level since March 2022 at 96,997 points. The pound meanwhile reached its highest level against the dollar since October 2021. "Concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and growing expectations for monetary easing weighed on the currency," said George Pavel, general manager at Middle East, a trading platform. "The move, if confirmed, would raise serious questions about the central bank's autonomy at a time of heightened policy uncertainty, painting a bearish scenario for the greenback," Pavel said. Since returning to the White House, Trump has constantly hit out at Powell for not cutting US interest rates and questioned his intelligence, stoking worries about the bank's independence. "I know within three or four people who I'm going to pick," Trump told reporters after a NATO summit. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump could announce a replacement as early as September, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, economic adviser Kevin Hassett and former Fed governor Kevin Warsh among the contenders. Earlier this week, Powell told lawmakers the bank would assess the impact of Trump's tariffs on the economy before making any rate move. (AFP)
