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Daily Record
24-06-2025
- Politics
- Daily Record
Council staff who accused ex-leader of harassment 'feared retribution' over claims
SUNDAY MAIL EXCLUSIVE: An official report states there was a power imbalance and a pattern of behaviour shown in the allegations against the ex-council chief. Co mplainers feared retribution if they spoke out against an under-fire former Edinburgh City Council leader, a report has revealed. Cammy Day was forced to resign after the Sunday Mail revealed allegations he 'bombarded' Ukrainian refugees with sexually explicit questions. He has been readmitted to Labour's team of councillors after police cleared him of criminality. An investigation instructed by the local authority has now shown several people came forward with claims of inappropriate conduct – but were scared to pursue formal complaints. Kevin Dunion, a former convener of the Standards Commission for Scotland who conducted the probe, said the council had no proper process to deal with claims against Day and reports of 'alleged unwanted advances' towards junior staff were 'treated as gossip'. Describing a worker being told of an allegation about Day and an inappropriate picture, Dunion said: 'They were shocked by the apparent unconcerned attitude and lack of action for protecting the member of staff allegedly targeted.' Asked if the alleged incident was reported to a manager, Dunion said: 'No it was not.' He told of two other instances involving Day which were 'reported up the management chain, such as alleged unwanted advances being made to junior staff but being treated as gossip or concerns about a social relationship with a young member of staff being formed…' Asked if the claims had an 'abuse of power' element, Dunion said: 'The report does indicate a power imbalance as grounds for reluctance to pursue complaints or be identified for fear of retribution. There are several allegations of a similar or related nature.' Day has been readmitted into the council's Labour group after a suspension. Council leader Jane Meagher said: 'I really look forward to working with him again.' She made the comments during a heated debate last week in the council chambers. Labour councillor Katrina Faccenda, who currently has a complaint against Day, said: 'I do not welcome Councillor Day back into the group.' She claimed she had been 'subject to a drunken tirade' by Day which left her 'in tears'. Scottish Labour allowed Day to return after we revealed it received a complaint of repeated unwanted sexual messages by a constituent in 2022. We also told of claims he had sent Ukrainian refugees sexual messages. An ex-council worker claimed they were repeatedly contacted by Day and invited to have wine in his caravan. The report details an anonymous complaint by someone in 2018 who claimed they were 'groomed' online aged 15 by an unnamed councillor. Dunion said emails about it were missing from all council computers. Day has admitted using dating app Grindr but said all allegations against him amount to a 'political smear campaign'.
The Herald Scotland
19-06-2025
- Politics
- The Herald Scotland
What did Edinburgh Council's misconduct probe reveal?
It is a document that will make for troubling reading for councillors across the chamber - and leaves no one covered in glory. Many on the outside will see it as just the latest in a long line of scandals to hit the council. Elected officials tasked with picking up the pieces will hope to use it as an opportunity to improve the authority's internal processes for dealing with future allegations of misconduct. But even for an organisation well-acquainted with reputational damage, this has been an especially painful episode. Why was the investigation launched? The investigation was requested by councillors following allegations made in the press against former Scottish Labour council leader, Cammy Day. It was claimed Day had, via social media, sexually harassed two Ukrainian refugees, a council employee and a constituent, including sending unsolicited messages and images of a sexual nature. While admitting to contacting men over the gay dating app Grindr, he has strenuously denied acting inappropriately and a police investigation into his actions found 'no evidence of criminality'. After it also emerged complaints had been made to the council about the former leader's behaviour, councillors in February commissioned Kevin Dunion - a well-respected public official who has previously served as the head of the Standards Commission for Scotland, which enforces enforces ethical standards in public life, specifically for councillors - to examine how any complaints were handled by the authority and report back. The core remit of the investigation was to 'review the Council's policies and procedures to identify any gaps and/or further improvements which could be made considering the concerns and behaviours alleged in relation to Councillor Day'. It involved 35 structured review meetings involving 29 individuals. What complaints did the probe focus on? Mr Dunion's investigation assessed how four complaints about Mr Day were handled between 2018 and the end of 2023. Two were made through Safecall, the council's whistleblowing service, while one was sent directly to the former chief executive, and another to the former council leader, Adam Nols-McVey, who at the time led an SNP-Labour coalition alongside Day, who served as his deputy. Were complaints handled correctly? For the most part, Mr Dunion found the complaints made were handled in line with the council's existing policies. However, he said it was 'important to recognise how few policy or procedural requirements are applicable to complaints received by the Council about the behaviour of councillors'. He added: 'The Council's policy position taken in response to such complaints is that the Council is not able to investigate and instead to direct the complainant to the Ethical Standards Commissioner and/or to the police if the behaviour may be considered to involve criminality.' The 2018 anonymised complaint contained a 'very serious allegation' that an unnamed senior Labour councillor - later identified as Day - had 'groomed' the complainant online in 2010, who was a vulnerable 15-year-old boy at the time, 'and had invited him to his flat with sexual intent'. The email also indicates that he was in care because he had suffered sexual abuse. Nols-McVey had his business manager at the time respond and also raised the matter with the police, but was advised that 'unless there was someone named (either victim or perpetrator) the police would not be able to take it any further'. Mr Dunion concluded there were 'some inadequacies in the handling of this complaint'. Read more: The seriousness of the claim 'of potentially criminal behaviour by a councillor, who might be the Deputy Leader, is such that the emails should have been shared by the Council Leader with the Chief Executive and Monitoring Officer,' he said. 'Furthermore, the email alleged that the complainant was contacted whilst in care at the time, having suffered sexual abuse. This was information which should have been provided to the council, to decide whether to conduct its own enquiries. 'The former Council Leader now accepts that he should, at the least, have informed the Monitoring Officer.' In 2023, the then chief executive Andrew Kerr and number of senior staff, received an email from a councillor 'describing information which had been informally disclosed to him' which concerned the sexual harassment of a 'young Ukrainian man by an unnamed Edinburgh Councillor'. This referenced 'unsolicited messages and images being sent through social media which continued even after asking for the behaviour to stop' and the recipient was said to be feeling 'extremely harassed,' the report states. After Kerr was made aware that it related to Councillor Day he raised the matter with the police, 'as did subsequently the councillor who had raised the concern'. Dunion concluded the complaint 'was properly considered and investigated in line with the council's policies and procedures'. The council also received two whistleblowing disclosures through the Safecall hotline at the end of 2023. The first, on November 5, 'described behaviour of which they had been made aware, with the prospect that those allegedly directly affected would subsequently provide evidence'. However this was never received. The second, on 18 December, was from an individual claiming to be the subject of the complained about behaviour, but they 'did not provide evidence to substantiate the allegations'. Both cases were eventually closed with no action taken. Mr Dunion said: 'Based on this it was appropriate for the council to close the cases – i.e. to take no further action, unless more information was forthcoming. 'These complaints were well-handled and properly considered in line with the council's policies. 'It should be noted that, as the complaints were about a councillor, this meant that the role of Safecall was to gather information which might result in a referral to the [Ethical Standards Commissioner] for investigation.' What emails went missing and why? The email from the 2018 complainant could not be found when another councillor, who had a concern about safeguarding of children, requested to see them in 2019. On searching, the messages 'could not be found in the mailboxes accessible to the business manager. Yet their loss was not reported to anyone at the time,' the report said. 'It was only in December 2024 when the Council was forwarded a copy of the 2018 email, from an external source.' Mr Dunion said this came as an 'unexpected consequences of the emails being retained solely in the recipient's mailbox'. The council commissioned a 'major IT consultancy to carry out a search of the council's email server,' but 'nothing was found in the former Council Leader's mailbox. His former Business Manager's mailbox could not be checked as they had already left the organisation, and it had been removed'. Mr Dunion said there were 'several possible reasons why the Business Manager's messages were missing when they sought them in 2019,' including that during 2017-2019 there was a refresh of devices in the council and a move to Office 365. He said deliberate deletion 'could only be done by someone with knowledge that the emails existed and had access to the computer or mailbox of the Business Manager,' adding: 'I would observe that it appears the Business Manager had not informed anyone else of the emails received by the Council Leader.' What sensitive documents were leaked? Part of the investigation was to determine how sensitive reports detailing the two whistleblowing complaints about Councillor Day made their way into the press. A Story in The Times, published on December 6 last year just days before the Sunday Mail first reported allegations surrounding messages to Ukrainian refugees which led to his resignation, quoted directly from a top secret investigation outcome report considered at the whistleblowing sub-committee. 'There is no doubt therefore that the information has been leaked by someone who has access to that report and has confidently concluded that it concerns Councillor Day,' Mr Dunion said. As part of his enquiries Mr Dunion individually challenged each sub-committee member over the leak, 'as to whether they are directly responsible for providing it to The Times or have disclosed the information to someone else who may have done so'. He said: 'All have denied doing so. Many have expressed a view on this however there is no evidence which would allow an assertion to be made by me. Nor are there any proportionate means within the limited capacity of this review to do more. 'There is no doubt however that this constitutes an egregious breach of the confidentiality requirements of Councillors Code of Conduct and undermines confidence in the whistleblowing process. It calls into question whether whistleblowing complaints regarding councillors should be investigated or whether the whistleblowing sub-committee has to be provided with information regarding such investigations.' Furthermore, an email sent by the council's chief executive Paul Lawrence to group leaders last year informed them of checks made by council officers on property related to Councillor Day, in response to claims he was acting as an unregistered landlord. The entirety of the email was reported in the Daily Record on December 12. 'I spoke directly to each of the group leaders to ask whether they were responsible for providing it to the newspaper or had disclosed the information to someone else who may have done so,' Dunion said. 'They have all denied doing so, and there is no evidence which would make it appropriate for me to draw a conclusion. Was Councillor Day's alleged misconduct an 'open secret'? A 'commonplace expression' about the alleged behaviour by the former council leader - in particular allegations of approaches made, and images sent or sought - was that 'it is an open secret', and that 'everyone knew,' Dunion wrote in his report. 'However, it is clear from my investigation that is not the case. 'Some people are said to have experienced or known of this alleged behaviour; some were aware of rumours and believed them to be true; some were aware and believed them to be malicious and others were wholly unaware of the alleged behaviour. 'Some regarded the alleged behaviour as being somewhat reckless, but perhaps not surprising, giving rise to salacious, even amused, gossip. It has been suggested that it was common behaviour in the gay community, and to react with disapproval is narrow-minded. 'Others have reacted against this stereotyping of the gay community, saying if unsolicited images are sent and persistent unwanted requests are made this is a form of abuse, no matter the sexuality of those responsible. 'There are other instances which have apparently been reported up the management chain, such as alleged unwanted advances being made to junior staff but being treated as gossip, or concerns about a social relationship with a young member of staff being formed, but a procedural response taken, based around the narrow legal requirement for safeguarding.' Mr Dunion said if there can be said to be a culture within the council in respect of complaints relating to councillors 'it is at times one of 'What is expected to be done about it?' and even more so when it may involve the Council Leader'. 'This may be understandable, even if not sufficient.' Are safeguards sufficient to prevent inappropriate behaviour by councillors? He said if alleged behavior was regarded as relating to an individual's personal life there is 'an obvious reluctance by staff to disapprovingly question the council leader'. 'If material comes into the public domain which is seen as reputationally harmful politically and unbecoming of an office-holder, that may be regarded as matter for the political party, not council officers to address.' Even if there was a possibility the conduct related to their role as a councillor, for a sanction to be imposed it must be proved there was a breach of the Councillors' Code of Conduct through an investigation by the Ethical Standards Commissioner. This requires a formal public hearing to have been held, 'after what may be a lengthy investigation,' Dunion pointed out. 'The complainant would be expected to give a statement under oath and be subject to cross examination by the councillor complained of or their representative. 'Understandably it is not a course of action to be taken lightly.' 'If a councillor is seen as behaving inappropriately, then this might be taken up by senior staff with the Group Leader or Whip. Where, however, the complaint concerns the Council Leader and Group Leader then that is not an option.' Responding directly to the question in the remit of whether the safeguards in the council are sufficient to prevent behaviour such as that alleged in relation to Councillor Day occurring, Mr Dunion said: 'In short, the answer is no. Read more from our Edinburgh correspondent: 'There are none which could have an effect on the alleged communications with the public. There are none that could prevent the alleged personal, or online, communication with members of staff or councillors. 'However a better focus on a safeguarding response to unwanted or inappropriate behaviour, which increases the likelihood of it being made known and potentially challenged, either directly or by action taken to protect the affected individual, may help to prevent it occurring.' Did Councillor Day's position of power contribute to the hindering of reporting? Mr Dunion said it was 'reasonable to conclude that the positions held by Councillor Day had an effect upon complainants, and those made aware of complaints'. 'The complainant in 2018 made it clear that he was a vulnerable 15-year-old in 2010, when the alleged misconduct is said to have occurred. Even in 2018, he said he remained fearful of retaliation if the councillor concerned was made aware he was the complainant. 'In the December 2023 case raised with the chief executive, the Ukrainian individual was said to be concerned that, if he made a complaint, it might result in some response which would affect his visa status. 'There is no doubt there is a significant perceived power imbalance which inhibits complaints being made directly to the council about the alleged unwanted behaviour of the leader.' …And what about the 'alcohol-fuelled parties'? In an appendix to his report, Mr Dunion highlighted concerns about the drinking culture in the City Chambers where councillors sometimes hold parties, such as at Christmas, and informal gatherings after meetings. 'Several councillors and staff interviewed have commented adversely on this prevalent culture of hospitality, which can be taken to excess and have suggested that this practice cease completely,' he wrote. Mr Dunion said 'scarcely any interview' he conducted with councillors did not referenced these parties. 'Concerns raised from these parties result from them involving alcohol and not being formal. 'The behaviour complained of included allegations of public arguments and altercations, concerns about establishing the age of individuals being served alcohol, excessive drinking, drinks being taken into non-bookable rooms, and effects of alcohol on junior members of staff, as well as safeguarding concerns in that respect. 'By all accounts some staff and councillors at these events failed to meet the standards expected. 'A recommendation, arising from the concerns expressed to me, is that the Council considers the appropriateness of such social events and hospitality arrangements.'
The Herald Scotland
18-06-2025
- Politics
- The Herald Scotland
Edinburgh Labour U-turns on Cammy Day's council comeback bid
The appointment was due be tabled for approval on Thursday, June 19 — at a meeting where the focus will be on the findings of an investigation into how the authority handled complaints about Councillor Day's alleged misconduct, conducted by Kevin Dunion, a former Scottish Information Commissioner. However, the Labour group's leadership has since u-turned on the move, following opposition from some councillors whose votes would be crucial to passing the amendment, according to sources close to discussions. It's now expected the proposal will be brought forward at the next full council meeting at the end of August at the earliest. Council leader Jane Meagher told The Herald: 'My focus at the moment is on the Dunion report and making sure we take swift action on its recommendations.' Day resigned the council leadership, a position he held since 2022, in December after a newspaper reported he 'bombarded' two Ukrainian refugees with sexual messages - an allegation he strongly denies. More sexual harassment allegations followed in the press from a constituent and a council staff member. Later addressing the claims against him, Day said he messaged men on the dating app Grindr, but denied ever acting inappropriately. In the same interview, he claimed to be the victim of a co-ordinated political plot designed to end his career. After being issued an administrative suspension by Scottish Labour chiefs in response to the allegations he was welcomed back into the party this month. That came after a police investigation concluded there was "no evidence of criminality". And on Monday at an internal meeting of Edinburgh's Labour group - who run the city council as a minority administration with support from the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats - it was agreed Day's promotion to planning convener, a position that comes with a £14,000 pay rise from the standard councillor salary, should be presented for approval in the City Chambers on Thursday. But by Wednesday morning, the plan had been abandoned. It is understood that some councillors expressed concern over appointing Councillor Day to the role at the same meeting where issues related to his alleged misconduct would be debated. Read more: One Edinburgh Labour source said they didn't think there should be 'any way back into a senior position' for the former council leader. A second said they believed Councillor Day should be given a second chance. 'Most people are fair minded and expect people to be given a second chance,' the source said. 'But it's the timing; it should be August at the earliest.' Meanwhile, co-convener of Edinburgh Council's Green group, Chas Booth, said of the plan: 'This would absolutely beggar belief if we weren't so used by now to Labour consistently putting their own interests above those of the city. 'This is a man who has still not apologised for the hurt and upset his behaviour has caused and has shown absolutely no contrition or remorse whatsoever, yet Labour appear set to hand him a plum job. 'What message does Labour think this would send to his alleged victims, or to people with experiences of sexual misconduct more generally? Labour must think again, Cllr Day must apologise for his behaviour, and other political parties must join us in opposing this appointment.' Mr Dunion's 30-page report makes a series of recommendations around the council's complaints procedures and whistleblowing policy with a focus on the safeguarding of victims. He highlighted the council lacks sufficient safeguards to prevent the type of alleged behaviour attributed to Councillor Day. However, the investigator concluded the more recent complaints against him - including those relating to alleged behaviour towards Ukrainian refugees that led to his resignation - were "well-handled and properly considered in line with the council's policies". The inquiry also found there is "no doubt" there is a "significant perceived power imbalance" around the complaints being made to Edinburgh City Council about the "alleged unwanted behaviour" of the former council leader. Mr Dunion stated in the report: "There are [...] instances which have apparently been reported up the management chain, such as alleged unwanted advances being made to junior staff but being treated as gossip, or concerns about a social relationship with a young member of staff being formed, but a procedural response taken, based around the narrow legal requirement for safeguarding." Internal party disagreements over the response to the inquiry spilled onto social media. Giving his reaction, Labour city councillor Stephen Jenkinson wrote on Facebook the investigation "confirms political hatchet job". Commenting on the post, his Labour group colleague Cllr Katrina Faccenda said a 'more serious (and less tinfoil hatted) response would be to encourage people to read the report in full and follow discussion at next week's council'. Former Labour Lord Provost of Edinburgh Lesley Hinds also responded. "The reason the report was commissioned," she wrote, "was because of the Labour Leader of the Council's [alleged] behaviour, as reported in the press. "Rather than having a pop at SNP I think you should read the whole report and treat the allegations and the pattern of behaviour by the former Leader of the Council." Ms Hinds told The Herald: 'Having read the Dunion Report I have been surprised by comments from some Edinburgh Councillors, who appear to be out of touch with the concerns and views from ordinary people and Labour Party members." Councillor Jenkinson was contacted for comment.
The Herald Scotland
14-06-2025
- Politics
- The Herald Scotland
I'm not sure Edinburgh Council's big problem is too many Xmas parties
But in a 30-page report at the end of which Mr Dunion makes 15 recommendations, the last has attracted much attention, for the council to 'consider the appropriateness of social events and hospitality arrangements'. Before anyone gets the impression that Edinburgh's City Chambers is awash with Bacchanalian excess, in my five years I never witnessed anything remotely untoward. Read more Maybe I just wasn't invited to the hottest events, but my recollection, primarily of Conservative Group Christmas receptions, was of a few glasses of wine and supermarket nibbles ─ funded by us from our group subscriptions ─ and everyone mucking in to clear away in very good time to repair to a nearby boozer where it was someone else's turn to serve the drinks. The Labour Group bash did have disco music and lights, but I didn't stay long in case I cramped their style. I was either unaware or not bothered if the SNP, Lib Dems or Greens threw parties, swell or otherwise. But it seems the festive gatherings were too much for some who spoke to Mr Dunion, either that or he just didn't like the principle, but that wasn't the reason he was called in. Of the other 14 recommendations in this keenly anticipated report to next Thursday's full council meeting, 12 involve a review of existing whistleblowing and complaints procedures, to consider a tweak here or a twiddle there. Better record keeping, clear routes of complaint, better HR support for staff, and that kind of thing. There is a clear risk Mr Dunion will be accused of producing another whitewash, but although he did not have compelling authority, resources or time to dig deeper into the allegations, there is still plenty to make uncomfortable reading for some. First, reading between the lines, I believe there is a strong inference that if the harassment allegations against Cllr Day had been substantiated - which they were not - they would at the very least have represented inappropriate behaviour for someone holding a prominent public role. 'Councillors are personally responsible for their own behaviour and for ensuring they meet the expectations of those holding office,' he wrote. 'It is not just about obeying but reflecting on how their behaviour may be regarded.' Quite. Cammy Day outside the City Chambers (Image: free) Second, the 'neither confirm nor deny' response from Susanne Tanner KC, to the direct question of whether she had been made aware of previous allegations against Cllr Day during her 2021 examination of the council's whistleblowing culture, was rather undermined by former Education, Children and Families Vice-Convener Alison Dickie confirming she submitted a dossier of safeguarding allegations, including Cllr Day, to the Tanner Review team, and raised it with her in a subsequent meeting. Strangely, I recall Ms Tanner was not so reticent in answering direct questions from Councillor Day about councillors' alleged behaviour ─ mine, and I was subsequently cleared by the Ethical Standards Commission ─ when presenting her report, but that's another story. However, Mr Dunion's examination reveals that one senior Edinburgh councillor is a copper-bottomed, ocean-going liar who is unfit to hold public office. The councillor cannot be identified because there is no substantiating evidence. They were among those councillors emailed by Chief Executive Paul Lawrence in December last year to inform them about details of properties relating to Cllr Day, and the email contents appeared 'in its entirety' in the Daily Record shortly after. Mr Dunion spoke to them all and each denied being the source. One of them is not telling the truth. 'There are not any proportionate means within the limited capacity of this review to pursue this further,' he said. 'There is no doubt however that this is a deliberate breach of the Councillors Code of Conduct. The almost immediate passing of this to the press, is a betrayal of trust.' I know that if I was one of those who hadn't done the leaking, I'd be concerned someone might think it was me, and they have no way of showing they were not to blame. Read more There are more obvious criticisms, particularly how then council leader Adam Nols-McVey handled allegations by a man who claimed to have been groomed as a 15-year-old in 2010 by an unnamed councillor ─ who Mr Dunion confirms was Cllr Day ─ when he was in care after suffering sexual abuse. The man had emailed Cllr Nols-McVey in 2018, when Cllr Day was his deputy, but Nols-McVey did not inform then Chief Executive Andrew Kerr. He told Mr Dunion he spoke to a police chief superintendent who said nothing could be done without the name of either alleged victim or perpetrator. The email and subsequent messages from the alleged victim could not be traced because, Mr Dunion noted, the complaints were not shared and only retained in recipients' mailboxes. Mr Dunion's conclusion is clear. 'The seriousness of the claim of potentially criminal behaviour by a councillor, who might be the Deputy Leader, is such that the emails should have been shared by the Council Leader with the Chief Executive and Monitoring Officer,' he said. 'They would then have been in a position to decide whether to contact the police.' After the 2022 elections, the SNP-Labour coalition ended, and Cllr Nols McVey was replaced by Cllr Day as leader of a minority Labour administration. Mr Dunion doesn't say if that had any bearing on events. But Christmas parties? Forget it. John McLellan is a former Edinburgh Evening News and Scotsman editor. He served as a City of Edinburgh councillor for five years. Brought up in Glasgow, McLellan has lived and worked in Edinburgh for 30 years
Boston Globe
13-06-2025
- Climate
- Boston Globe
Hurricane season started two weeks ago. Where are the storms?
But one usually arrives before the end of the month, and Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University, said it was unclear when this year's first storm would form. Here's a look at what's going on. Advertisement A storm gets a name when its sustained winds reach 39 miles per hour, and it becomes a Category 1 hurricane when they reach 74 miles per hour. Get Starting Point A guide through the most important stories of the morning, delivered Monday through Friday. Enter Email Sign Up A key ingredient for that is warm ocean waters, with temperatures at 80 degrees or above, and Jason Dunion, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said many locations across the Atlantic had not quite reached that threshold. 'The waters are still warming, and they're actually a little bit cooler than last year, so we're not seeing some of those record temperatures,' Dunion said. Sea surface temperatures set records last year, which also made hurricanes more likely to rapidly intensify and become more destructive. Saharan dust carried from North Africa is another factor. It travels far across the Atlantic Ocean, creating a layer of dry air in the atmosphere that can suppress storm development. Dunion described the layer as a combination of 'superdry air that inhibits clouds, warm air that helps put a lid on clouds, and thunderstorm development, and a strong jet of winds that acts to tilt and tear thunderstorms apart.' Advertisement This week, a plume of dust spread from the central Atlantic all the way through the Caribbean, for more than 2,500 miles, which is roughly distance between Washington, D.C., and San Francisco. 'It's huge,' said Dunion, adding that conditions in large portions of the Atlantic just weren't favorable for hurricanes because of the dust plume. The season for trans-Atlantic dust begins in June and tapers off in mid-August, just as hurricane activity usually picks up. Dunion calls mid-August the 'switch point.' Klotzbach said wind shear had also been thwarting the formation of storms in the Gulf of Mexico, where tropical storms often form at this point in the season. Wind shear is the change of wind speed and direction with height, and it is notorious for shredding apart hurricanes and keeping tropical storms from developing. Like NOAA, Klotzbach's team at Colorado State released a forecast this spring that predicted an above-average number of storms this year. But if the shear remains elevated for several more weeks, he said, he may scale back his forecast 'substantially.' On Wednesday, Klotzbach's team issued an update saying that, for now, it was standing by its earlier expectation. In a typical season, there are 14 named storms. NOAA has predicted between 13 and 19 this year; Klotzbach's team expects there to be 17. If the storm shear in the Gulf were to weaken and a storm were to move through the Caribbean or the Gulf, 'we certainly have plenty of fuel there to get a robust hurricane,' Klotzbach said. Advertisement In the eastern Pacific, where hurricane season began on May 15 and where storms typically form before they do in the Atlantic, has been off to a busy start. Four storms have formed off the west coast of North America: Alvin, Barbara, Cosme, and Dalila. Both seasons run through Nov. 30.
