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DW
12-07-2025
- Politics
- DW
For France's far right, US ties demand careful balancing act – DW – 07/12/2025
Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally is eyeing the 2027 elections. But the party is wary of the fallout for France from the Trump administration's policies. As President Donald Trump and his administrationbuild ties with far-right parties across Europe, France's National Rally is offering a wary response to Washington's overtures, as it surges in the polls and hopes to finally clinch victory in the country's 2027 presidential election. Multiple factors are shaping the National Rally's cautious approach towards Trump and his MAGA movement, analysts say: From the French party's traditional, if fading, distrust of a 'hegemonic' United States, to the negative impact on France of US tariffs, to strong antipathy towards Trump on the part of many French voters. "Overall they are relatively ideologically aligned with Trump, and they've been positive about his re-election," said Camille Lons, deputy Paris Office head of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) of the National Rally. "But they're much more careful than a number of other populist leaders in Europe. There is more distance in the relationship than in Germany, or Italy for example." In Germany, some observers believe that strong backing by Trump allies, like Vice President JD Vance and Elon Musk, helped to catapult the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party to second place in the February elections. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's warm relations with the US leader have lifted her standing within the European Union, which sees her as a potential bridge to smoothing ties with Washington. The Trump administration's influence is also discernable elsewhere in Europe, including in Hungary and in Poland, both of which hosted the US-founded Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) this year — a first for Warsaw, where the Trump-endorsed candidate Karol Nawrocki won June's presidential elections. "From the American side, these parties are seen as potential instruments to influence European politics," said German Marshall Fund program officer Zsuzsanna Vegh. "The fact they're euroskeptic and challenge the European Union plays into the hands of the [Trump] administration." But the US leader's brand carries risks for the National Rally, analysts say, even though France's leading opposition party shares his nationalistic, anti-immigration views. A June ECFR poll showed 55% of French saw Trump's policies as not only harmful for their own country, but half also believed they harmed the United States. Among National Rally voters, only 37% considered Trump's policies good for US citizens; just 18% thought they were good for French ones. "The National Rally is pursuing a strategy of vote maximalization," ahead of the 2027 elections, said Vegh. "It needs to appear as a party that is moderate enough to be able to draw voters from the mainstream — and not alienate its own electorate, which is also quite skeptical of Trump's impact on France." Trump's threat of massivetariffs on EU imports — potentially hitting French industry and agriculture — offers one example of the negative fallout, Vegh said. The National Rally "can't really risk appearing to be on overly friendly terms with a leader who might harm the interests of their core, blue-collar electorate." For National Rally leader and three-time presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, the Trump administration poses a delicate balancing act in other ways. Since inheriting the party from her father in 2011, Le Pen has spent years broadening and diversifying its base, reaching out to gay, Jewish, younger and more center-right voters — even as the National Rally's anti-immigrant, populist core remained intact. Her party emerged in first place in last year's European Parliament and French National Assembly elections, although it failed to capture a majority. Unlike other European far-right figures, Le Pen was not invited to Trump's inauguration. Earlier this year, her 29-year-old protege and National Rally president, Jordan Bardella, tangled with MAGA heavyweight Steve Bannon — cancelling a CPAC speech after Bannon appeared to make a Nazi salute. Bardella's move earned a sharp rebuke from Bannon. "That's a good example of the risk of being associated with Trump and his entourage," said the ECFR's Lons, "at a moment when the RN has been working so hard in trying to normalize its image and appear like a party that is able to govern." But when Le Pen was convicted of graft in March over a fake jobs scandal involving European Parliament hires — potentially sinking her presidential bid — Trump slammed the judicial decision as a "witch hunt." More recently, a Trump State Department appointee offered to bankroll Le Pen's appeal with US government funds, according to Politico and Reuters — an overture that was reportedly rebuffed. (Bardella is poised to take Le Pen's place as presidential candidate if she loses her appeal.) On a recent, party-organized visit to France's opulent Senate one sweltering afternoon, National Rally supporters offered a mixed take on the US leader and his impact. Former flight attendant Jacques Le Roy said he hoped his party would replicate Trump's signature measures: From tariffs and immigration crackdowns, to massive government layoffs which Le Roy described as "degreasing the system." He had a thumbs-up, too, for diluting the powers of the European Union, which the US leader has described as born to "screw" the US. "We agree with a lot of Trump's ideas," Le Roy said. "It's normal we have our differences. But the ideas remain the same." But finance student Noe Marguinal, also at the Senate visit, was less enthusiastic. "France and Europe are extremely tied to the United States, and in my opinion too much," Marguinal said. "I think it's better we decide more for ourselves than remain under the subordination of the United States." For the National Rally's critics, Trump's Washington sets an alarming precedent. Both Le Pen and Bardella lead the polls as potential presidential candidates. Analysts and ordinary French residents wonder whether a longtime 'Republican Front' of parties, previously blocking the National Rally from winning elections, will finally crumble. At a recent anti-Trump protest in Paris, many expressed fears of a National Rally victory. "Could it happen here?" asked French musician Clothilde Desjeunes, of the Trump administration's impact since taking office. "Yes. That's why we're out here fighting." Another protester, Cathy, with US-French nationality, echoed those concerns. "I'm worried about the National Rally, I'm very worried," she said, declining to give her last name for fear of reprisal. "I see a lot of parallels with the United States." What happens across the Atlantic could help shape the National Rally's electoral fortunes, analysts say. If Washington imposes steep tariffs on France, or if Trump's policies fail spectacularly, the party could feel the aftershocks, said Lons. Optionally, she said, it could be lifted by a surging European far-right alliance that Washington is trying to cultivate. It's more likely, she believes, that the party will hedge its bets. "They'll keep a distance with Trump, so they're not affected by his controversial positions," she said, "but they'll still be reinforced by the overall rise of the far right across Europe."
Yahoo
03-07-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
What do we know about the latest push for a Gaza truce?
US President Donald Trump this week urged the Palestinian militant group Hamas to seize the opportunity for a 60-day truce in Gaza, saying Israel had agreed to the proposal. After almost 21 months of devastating fighting in the Palestinian territory and following a speedy resolution to Israel's 12-day war with Iran, Trump's exhortations have reignited hopes for a third ceasefire in the Gaza war. But, with familiar obstacles to a truce still in place and an upcoming meeting between Trump and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu critical to the outcome, the likelihood of a deal remains in the balance, analysts say. - What's holding up a Hamas response? - Efforts to strike a deal in numerous rounds of indirect talks have repeatedly failed, with the primary point of contention centred on Hamas's calls for an enduring ceasefire in Gaza. In a Wednesday statement, Hamas said it was weighing its response to the new proposal and sought "an agreement that guarantees ending the aggression" as well as the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the entry of aid into the territory. Hugh Lovatt, a Middle East analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), said there could be flexibility in Hamas's position if they adopt a "pragmatic understanding that this is as good as they'll get for the foreseeable future". He nonetheless noted that there were "still extremely sizable gaps" on Hamas's demands, including the path to a permanent end to the war, the re-opening of Gaza to humanitarian aid and Israel's withdrawal. "Those will be ultimately the most critical matters in deciding whether that initial 60-day period is put on," he added. Andreas Krieg, a Middle East analyst at King's College London, said Hamas's "deep mistrust of Israel's intentions -- given past ceasefires that collapsed under renewed strikes -- means Hamas would need firm guarantees before agreeing" to a deal. In January, Hamas and Israel agreed to a truce which broke down in March, with the two sides unable to agree on the next steps and Israel resuming air and ground attacks. - What are Israel's demands? - Netanyahu on Wednesday vowed to "destroy" Hamas "down to their very foundation", restating Israel's war aim of eradicating the Palestinian group after its unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, which sparked the war in Gaza. Israel has consistently called for the dismantling of Hamas's military structures and the return of remaining hostages in Gaza captured in 2023. It has moreover sought a path to resuming the war during the two previous ceasefires. Israel's hardline National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir called on Wednesday to push the offensive in Gaza harder. "Let's finish the job in Gaza. We must bring down Hamas, occupy the Gaza Strip, encourage the transfer" of Palestinians out of the territory, Ben Gvir said in a televised interview. Krieg however said there were "domestic factors" that could allow Netanyahu "to make concessions", despite the far-right voices in his coalition urging the continuation of the war. "He is seen as having 'won' the war against Iran, his popularity is on the rise again across Israel, there is growing pressure from the military leadership to find an off-ramp in Gaza," Krieg said. Lovatt said a key question was whether there had been a "shift in Netanyahu's political calculations... which to date have seen the continuation of the war in Gaza and the maintenance of his far-right coalition as being most in his political interest". - How important is US pressure? - Trump is due to host Netanyahu at the White House next Monday, with the US president vowing on Tuesday to be "very firm" in his stance on ending the war in Gaza. Earlier on Tuesday, Trump said he hoped a Gaza ceasefire could be in place "sometime next week". Lovatt said it was "quite clear it is Trump and the Americans that have the key to this". Last week, Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire mediated by the United States and Qatar, after Washington bombed Iranian nuclear facilities. "We've seen when Trump puts his foot down... Trump is able to leverage his relationship with Netanyahu and his support for Israel when he wants," Lovatt said. Krieg said Washington has the "weight and security levers" to influence Israel either through aid, arms support or the withdrawal of its international diplomatic cover. "Israel will do only what it sees as serving its core interests. Without sustained, carefully calibrated US pressure... a durable agreement remains unlikely," Krieg added. csp/jsa
France 24
03-07-2025
- Politics
- France 24
What do we know about the latest push for a Gaza truce?
After almost 21 months of devastating fighting in the Palestinian territory and following a speedy resolution to Israel's 12-day war with Iran, Trump's exhortations have reignited hopes for a third ceasefire in the Gaza war. But, with familiar obstacles to a truce still in place and an upcoming meeting between Trump and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu critical to the outcome, the likelihood of a deal remains in the balance, analysts say. What's holding up a Hamas response? Efforts to strike a deal in numerous rounds of indirect talks have repeatedly failed, with the primary point of contention centred on Hamas's calls for an enduring ceasefire in Gaza. In a Wednesday statement, Hamas said it was weighing its response to the new proposal and sought "an agreement that guarantees ending the aggression" as well as the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the entry of aid into the territory. Hugh Lovatt, a Middle East analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), said there could be flexibility in Hamas's position if they adopt a "pragmatic understanding that this is as good as they'll get for the foreseeable future". He nonetheless noted that there were "still extremely sizable gaps" on Hamas's demands, including the path to a permanent end to the war, the re-opening of Gaza to humanitarian aid and Israel's withdrawal. "Those will be ultimately the most critical matters in deciding whether that initial 60-day period is put on," he added. Andreas Krieg, a Middle East analyst at King's College London, said Hamas's "deep mistrust of Israel's intentions -- given past ceasefires that collapsed under renewed strikes -- means Hamas would need firm guarantees before agreeing" to a deal. In January, Hamas and Israel agreed to a truce which broke down in March, with the two sides unable to agree on the next steps and Israel resuming air and ground attacks. What are Israel's demands? Netanyahu on Wednesday vowed to "destroy" Hamas "down to their very foundation", restating Israel's war aim of eradicating the Palestinian group after its unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, which sparked the war in Gaza. Israel has consistently called for the dismantling of Hamas's military structures and the return of remaining hostages in Gaza captured in 2023. It has moreover sought a path to resuming the war during the two previous ceasefires. Israel's hardline National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir called on Wednesday to push the offensive in Gaza harder. "Let's finish the job in Gaza. We must bring down Hamas, occupy the Gaza Strip, encourage the transfer" of Palestinians out of the territory, Ben Gvir said in a televised interview. Krieg however said there were "domestic factors" that could allow Netanyahu "to make concessions", despite the far-right voices in his coalition urging the continuation of the war. "He is seen as having 'won' the war against Iran, his popularity is on the rise again across Israel, there is growing pressure from the military leadership to find an off-ramp in Gaza," Krieg said. Lovatt said a key question was whether there had been a "shift in Netanyahu's political calculations... which to date have seen the continuation of the war in Gaza and the maintenance of his far-right coalition as being most in his political interest". How important is US pressure? Trump is due to host Netanyahu at the White House next Monday, with the US president vowing on Tuesday to be "very firm" in his stance on ending the war in Gaza. Earlier on Tuesday, Trump said he hoped a Gaza ceasefire could be in place "sometime next week". Lovatt said it was "quite clear it is Trump and the Americans that have the key to this". Last week, Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire mediated by the United States and Qatar, after Washington bombed Iranian nuclear facilities. "We've seen when Trump puts his foot down... Trump is able to leverage his relationship with Netanyahu and his support for Israel when he wants," Lovatt said. Krieg said Washington has the "weight and security levers" to influence Israel either through aid, arms support or the withdrawal of its international diplomatic cover. "Israel will do only what it sees as serving its core interests. Without sustained, carefully calibrated US pressure... a durable agreement remains unlikely," Krieg added.
IOL News
03-07-2025
- Politics
- IOL News
What do we know about the latest push for a Gaza truce?
Smoke billows from an Israeli airstrike that targeted the area of Jabal al-Rihan in the southern Lebanese province of Jezzine. US President Donald Trump this week urged the Palestinian militant group Hamas to seize the opportunity for a 60-day truce in Gaza, saying Israel had agreed to the proposal. After almost 21 months of devastating fighting in the Palestinian territory and following a speedy resolution to Israel's 12-day war with Iran, Trump's exhortations have reignited hopes for a third ceasefire in the Gaza war. But, with familiar obstacles to a truce still in place and an upcoming meeting between Trump and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu critical to the outcome, the likelihood of a deal remains in the balance, analysts say. What's holding up a Hamas response? Efforts to strike a deal in numerous rounds of indirect talks have repeatedly failed, with the primary point of contention centred on Hamas's calls for an enduring ceasefire in Gaza. In a Wednesday statement, Hamas said it was weighing its response to the new proposal and sought "an agreement that guarantees ending the aggression" as well as the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the entry of aid into the territory. Hugh Lovatt, a Middle East analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), said there could be flexibility in Hamas's position if they adopt a "pragmatic understanding that this is as good as they'll get for the foreseeable future". He nonetheless noted that there were "still extremely sizable gaps" on Hamas's demands, including the path to a permanent end to the war, the re-opening of Gaza to humanitarian aid and Israel's withdrawal. "Those will be ultimately the most critical matters in deciding whether that initial 60-day period is put on," he added. Andreas Krieg, a Middle East analyst at King's College London, said Hamas's "deep mistrust of Israel's intentions -- given past ceasefires that collapsed under renewed strikes -- means Hamas would need firm guarantees before agreeing" to a deal. In January, Hamas and Israel agreed to a truce which broke down in March, with the two sides unable to agree on the next steps and Israel resuming air and ground attacks.
Days of Palestine
24-06-2025
- Politics
- Days of Palestine
Israel Wages Full-Scale 'Shadow War' in the West Bank
DaysofPal- The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) has issued a stark warning about an unprecedented Israeli escalation unfolding in the West Bank, taking place under the cover of regional conflict. The report emphasizes that while global attention remains fixed on the confrontation between Israel and Iran, Tel Aviv is accelerating its expansionist agenda in the West Bank, endangering any remaining prospects for a two-state solution. In a recent analytical study, the ECFR highlighted the rapidly deteriorating situation in Palestine, where Israel continues to carry out a systematic campaign of ethnic cleansing in Gaza, while simultaneously tightening its grip on the West Bank through closures, annexation policies, and widespread infrastructure destruction. Since tensions with Iran erupted on June 13, Israeli occupation has imposed a severe lockdown across the West Bank—blocking entrances to towns and villages and erecting more military checkpoints—effectively restricting the movement of over 3.2 million Palestinians. Meanwhile, infrastructure demolitions and illegal settlement expansion have deepened the crisis and obstructed any political horizon for a fair resolution. 'Iron Wall' Operation and the Greater Israel Agenda According to the report, the Israeli military launched a wide-scale operation in early 2025 known as 'Iron Wall,' aimed at clearing Palestinian refugee camps using drone strikes and air raids, which have already displaced more than 40,000 people. However, the study reveals that this operation is part of a larger extremist-driven agenda to establish a so-called 'Greater Israel' by annexing the entire West Bank and forcibly expelling Palestinians. This expansion is being facilitated through aggressive settlement laws such as the 'Regulation Law,' which legalizes seizure of Palestinian property in Area C. In parallel, the Israeli occupation is fragmenting the West Bank's geography by constructing bypass roads and new settlements, including in highly sensitive areas such as Har Homa and Givat HaMatos in East Jerusalem—zones considered 'red lines' by the European Union. A Critical Test for the European Union The report criticizes what it describes as the EU's 'passive' response, limited so far to verbal condemnations, without any tangible punitive actions—despite well-documented violations by the Israeli occupation. Some EU member states, notably Hungary, continue to shield Israel diplomatically, preventing consensus on tougher measures such as suspending the EU-Israel Association Agreement or imposing economic sanctions. However, the study suggests that the EU Foreign Affairs Council is expected to review Israel's human rights compliance under the agreement by the end of June. This could open the door for bolder steps, including restrictions on trade cooperation and potential sanctions on European companies operating in illegal settlements. A Grim Outlook for the West Bank The report warns that settlement expansion, economic collapse, and forced displacement are eroding the Palestinian Authority's ability to govern, especially amid a severe financial crisis and its failure to provide basic services. With no political or economic prospects, frustration among the Palestinian population is intensifying, raising the likelihood of renewed armed resistance rather than submission to an increasingly oppressive reality. These developments also pose a serious threat to regional stability, particularly for neighboring Jordan, which faces growing fears over another wave of Palestinian displacement. A Call for Firm European Action In conclusion, the ECFR affirms that Israel's escalating campaigns in Gaza and the West Bank are entrenching an apartheid regime, dismantling the two-state solution, and threatening long-term peace and security in the Middle East. The Council urges the European Union to adopt a clear and decisive stance, holding the Israeli occupation accountable under international law, halting its attacks on Gaza and the West Bank, and curbing the ongoing forced displacement of Palestinians. Failure to act, the report warns, would severely undermine the EU's political and moral credibility in the region, just as the humanitarian crisis intensifies and the risk of broader instability continues to grow. Shortlink for this post:
