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BusinessToday
7 days ago
- Business
- BusinessToday
Malaysia's Palm Oil Output Expected To Rebound In 2025/26 Amid Lingering Challenges: BMI
After an anticipated decline in the 2024/25 season, Malaysia's palm oil production is projected to see a partial recovery in 2025/26, with output forecast to increase by 0.5% year-on-year to reach 19.5 million tonnes. This modest recovery is primarily attributed to favorable climatic conditions, including anticipated ENSO-neutral conditions and normal rainfall patterns, according to a commentary released today by BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company. However, the report highlights that Malaysia's palm oil sector will continue to grapple with persistent structural challenges, particularly an acute labor shortage and lagging replanting efforts, which are expected to cap long-term growth. Following an estimated 1.6% year-on-year decline in the 2024/25 season, the 0.5% increase projected for 2025/26 signals a slight rebound in production. Meteorological forecasts for the second half of 2025 into early 2026 suggest largely normal weather conditions across major palm oil producing states, signaling minimal weather-related disruptions. Despite the production uptick, BMI anticipates a slight decline in Malaysia's domestic palm oil consumption by 2.0%, from 3.9 million tonnes in 2024/25 to 3.8 million tonnes in 2025/26. This is primarily due to easing industrial demand amid slow progress toward biofuel targets and tighter restrictions on the used cooking oil trade. Consequently, Malaysia's share of global palm oil production is expected to ease slightly from 25.2% in 2024/25 to 23.9% in 2025/26. A significant hurdle for the Malaysian palm oil industry remains its heavy reliance on foreign workers, who constitute approximately 80% of the workforce. Stringent regulations aimed at addressing worker exploitation have constrained the inflow of new laborers, while low wages and the physically demanding nature of plantation work deter local participation. This acute labor shortage has directly impacted yields, as many estates are unable to fully harvest available crops, thereby limiting overall production growth in the short to medium term. BMI reports that with limited land available for expansion, Malaysia's palm oil production growth is increasingly dependent on yield improvements achieved through replanting aging trees. However, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) reported that only 2.0% of the total planted area was replanted in 2024, significantly below the national annual target of 4% to 5%. This lag is attributed to persistently high palm oil prices since 2021, which have incentivized farmers to prioritize immediate gains from existing, albeit lower-yielding, trees over the longer-term benefits of replanting. While a slight reversal is expected as prices ease in 2025/26, this trend is anticipated to largely persist over the longer term. Malaysia's Budget 2025 allocated an additional RM100 million to encourage smallholders to replant unproductive trees through grants and soft loans. However, this mirrors efforts from the previous year that showed limited impact on replanting rates, suggesting a need for more effective incentive structures. While measures like the revised windfall profit levy threshold (effective November 1, 2024) and adjustments to export duty rates aim to improve profitability and support domestic production, BMI believes more robust and targeted incentives are crucial for sustainable growth. Despite being unable to compete with Indonesia in terms of production scale due to land limitations, Malaysia has successfully reinforced its reputation as a reliable palm oil exporter. This was particularly evident after Indonesia's 2022 export ban highlighted Malaysia's consistency in meeting international demand. Furthermore, BMI said Malaysia is proactively advancing its sustainability efforts, with over 80% of its domestic production certified for export in 2024 under standards like the Malaysia Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) certification. This commitment to sustainability is crucial in light of regulations like the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which mandates deforestation-free commodities for entry into the EU market. By strengthening its monitoring and traceability standards, the agency noted that Malaysia is positioning itself as a global leader in sustainable palm oil, offering a competitive edge amidst growing global demand for reliable and ethically produced commodities. Related
Yahoo
25-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
First named tropical storm forms in Atlantic. What this means for 2025 hurricane season
The first named tropical storm of the 2025 season, Tropical Storm Andrea, formed in the Atlantic Ocean on June 24. As of Tuesday morning, the storm was spinning in the open waters of the Atlantic, heading away from the U.S. mainland, USA Today reported. Tropical Storm Andrea is not considered a major safety concern, as the storm is forecasted to have a short lifespan, however, the storm does mark the beginning what's expected to be an active hurricane season. Tropical Storm Andrea was detected to have maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph with higher gusts. The storm was forecasted to begin weakening Tuesday night, June 24, and to dissipate by Wednesday night, June 25, according to the National Hurricane Center. Tropical Storm Andrea has since weakened into a post-tropical cyclone, meaning that the system has lost its tropical characteristics. The storm had begun moving toward the east-northeast at 17 mph, a direction and pace that quickly brought the storm into cooler waters, USA Today reported. The tropical storm swiftly dissipated as it reached chilly waters and strong wind shear, according to The Weather Channel. Currently, activity within the upper atmosphere has been contributing to storm activity in the eastern Pacific, and contributing to winds that help keep storms suppressed in the Atlantic. Now, the Climate Prediction Center's long-range outlook shows that this pattern could continue for a couple of weeks, USA Today reported. In June, tropical storms typically develop close to the U.S., off of the southeast coast, in the Gulf Coast or in the Caribbean. Later in the season, storms usually form out of tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa, The Palm Beach Post reported. Early tropical storm activity can indicate an active hurricane season, although, this is not a definitive predictor. While early activity can suggest a more active season, it's possible that an active June and July can be followed by a quieter year, says the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The NOAA has predicted this hurricane season to be above-normal, citing a number of factors for an above-average season, including continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, weak wind shear and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon. Presley Bo Tyler is a reporter for the Louisiana Deep South Connect Team for Gannett/USA Today. Find her on X @PresleyTyler02 and email at PTyler@ This article originally appeared on Shreveport Times: Was Tropical Storm Andrea the first named storm of the season?
Yahoo
11-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Updated 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast maintains above-average predictions fueled by warm ocean temps
FORT COLLINS, Colo. – Leading hurricane researchers are maintaining their forecast for an above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Colorado State University (CSU) said Wednesday that above-average sea-surface temperatures in the subtropical eastern Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea were a primary factor in their prediction of nine total hurricanes this year. 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Brings Elevated Risk Of Major Landfalls, Experts Predict According to researchers, when the waters in the eastern subtropical Atlantic are warmer than average in the late spring, they tend to force a weaker subtropical high-pressure system and weaker associated winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic. "These conditions are anticipated to lead to a continuation of above-average water temperatures across most of the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the 2025 hurricane season," CSU noted in its latest hurricane season outlook. A warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane's fuel source is warm ocean water. Additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricane formation. Forecasters noted that current La Niña conditions are likely to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions in the next couple of months. However, there remains considerable uncertainty as to what phase of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) will dominate this summer and fall. While the odds of El Niño this hurricane season are low, they are still considerably higher than they were for last year's hurricane season. The CSU team is predicting 17 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. Of those 17 storms, researchers forecast nine to become hurricanes and four to reach major hurricane strength (Category 3 or higher), with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. How To Prepare For Hurricane Season CSU said they also take into account analog years from the historical record. "So far, the 2025 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011 and 2021," said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU. Klotzbach notes that analog seasons had anywhere from above-average to hyperactive Atlantic hurricane activity. "While the average of our analog seasons had above-average levels of activity, the relatively large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the uncertainty associated with this outlook," he said. The team predicts that 2025 hurricane activity will be about 125% of the average season from 1991-2020. By comparison, 2024's hurricane activity was about 130% of the average season. The most significant hurricanes of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season were hurricanes Helene and Milton, which combined to cause over 250 fatalities and more than $120 billion in damage in the southeastern U.s. HURRICANE CATEGORIES EXPLAINED: Category 1 | Category 2 | Category 3 | Category 4 | Category 5Original article source: Updated 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast maintains above-average predictions fueled by warm ocean temps
Yahoo
03-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Georgians 'be prepared': NOAA predicts above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025
Some Georgians are still haunted by the destruction of Hurricane Helene. But it wasn't the first storm and it won't be the last. On Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 through Nov. 30). It doesn't look good: NOAA is predicting a 60% chance of above-normal hurricane activity, 30% chance of near-normal conditions, and 10% chance of below-normal conditions. The agency is forecasting 13 to 19 named storms (which happens when winds reach 39 mph). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of at least 74 mph) including 3-5 major hurricane (at least a category 3 with winds of 111 mph or higher). Experts at NOAA have 70% confidence in these forecasts, with National Weather Service Director Ken Graham saying in his 30 years at NWS, they have never had more advanced models and warning systems in place. "This outlook is a call to action: Be prepared," Graham said. "Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you're ready before a storm threatens." To get into the technical aspects, NOAA says this is due to a "confluence of factors" including ENSO-neutral conditions (essentially meaning average sea surface temperatures), warmer than average ocean temperatures, weak wind shear, higher activity from the West African Monsoon. This all tends to favor tropical storm formations. Andrea: AN-dree uh Barry: BAIR-ree Chantal: shahn-TAHL Dexter: DEHK-ster Erin: AIR-rin Fernand: fair-NAHN Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah Jerry: JEHR-ee Karen: KAIR-ren Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh Melissa: meh-LIH-suh Nestor: NES-tor Olga: OAL-guh Pablo: PAHB-lo Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en Tanya: TAHN-yuh Van: van Wendy: WEN-dee Miguel Legoas is a Deep South Connect Team Reporter for Gannett/USA Today. Find him on X and Instagram @miguelegoas and email at mlegoas@ This article originally appeared on Savannah Morning News: NOAA predicts above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. What we know
Yahoo
28-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Big Country Summer Outlook: It's going to be hot & that's not clickbait!
BIG COUNTRY, Texas () – Heading into summer, especially here in the Big Country, we all know what to expect: hot and dry conditions. However, each month, the Climate Prediction Center releases a seasonal outlook that helps explain why we can expect specific weather patterns and how intense they may become. Let's take a closer look. Abilene records hottest day ever with sweltering 113°F, more record breaking heat ahead First, the Farmers' Almanac, a well-known publication that has been around since the 1800s, uses a combination of tools, including climatological patterns, sunspot activity, lunar tides, and other atmospheric data, to make seasonal predictions. According to the Summer 2025 outlook, it's expected to be hot and dry. Sure, we already had a feeling, but according to them, this summer is shaping up to be a real scorcher. That being said, they aren't expecting things to get out of hand right away. June is forecast to be near normal, which still means it'll be plenty warm around here. But once we head into July and August, that's when they're predicting the heat could really ramp up, possibly even to record-breaking levels. Last summer, we recorded one of the hottest summers on record. Nationwide, temperatures were approximately 2.5 degrees above normal, marking the hottest summer on Earth since global records began in 1880. Unfortunately, this year could be just as intense, if not hotter. As for rainfall, the Farmers' Almanac says precipitation across the country will range from near to slightly below average. For Texas, that doesn't take much. We're typically already running a deficit by the time July rolls around. Beat the Big Country heat, signs and symptoms of dehydration Looking at the Climate Prediction Center's latest outlook, they're forecasting above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for the Big Country from June through August. This forecast is based on several factors, one of which is the current El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern. ENSO is a vital climate phenomenon that influences temperatures and precipitation globally. Right now, we're in what's called an ENSO-neutral phase, meaning there's no strong El Niño or La Niña influence. That leaves the door open for other drivers, such as local soil moisture and sea surface temperatures. One thing the CPC paid close attention to this time was soil moisture. Thanks to recent rains across the Big Country, we've seen some improvement. That added moisture can help limit just how fast temperatures climb early in the season. However, if the dry trend continues, and there's a decent chance it will, it won't take long for hot and dry conditions to return. That raises the risk of worsening drought and triple-digit temperatures, especially later in the summer. How Abilene firefighters battle both fire and 100°+ temperatures Looking even farther out, there's a possibility that La Niña could start to develop by fall. If that happens, we could see the dry pattern shift slightly to the southeast; however, for now, there is still a lot of uncertainty. So, all in all, we're expecting a classic Big Country summer: hot, dry, and potentially even more intense than what we saw last year, especially in July and August when we typically hit peak heat. Make sure to practice heat safety and always be aware of the signs of heat illness. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
