Latest news with #EUAccession
Forbes
2 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
Ukraine's EU Accession May Boost GDP By 26%, Polish Study Says
BRUSSELS, BELGIUM - President of the EU Council Antonio Luis Santos da Costa (L), President of ... More Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy (C) and the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen (R) talk prior to the start of an EU Summit on March 6, 2025 in Brussels, Belgium. (Photo by) Ukraine's accession to the European Union (EU) could boost its GDP by up to 26% and generate economic gains for Central European countries through expanded trade, according to a new report by the Polish Economic Institute (PIE). The report finds that the faster Ukraine aligns with EU standards and implements economic reforms, the greater the regional benefits. Analysts modeled three scenarios, all of which project a positive impact on Ukraine's GDP from joining the EU. In the most optimistic case, GDP could rise by 26% within two years of accession as a result of integration into the customs union, improved access to European supply chains, economic reforms, and the inflow of EU funds. Productivity could increase by up to 7.8%. Under less favorable conditions, depending on population trends and productivity growth, GDP gains could range from 1.7% to 6.8%. Ukraine's accession is also expected to lift GDP in neighboring Central European countries, including Poland, Lithuania, and Hungary, by between 0.13% and 0.17% in the best-case scenario. The report notes that increased Ukrainian production would cause only a slight decline in output elsewhere in the EU, and negligible effects in other parts of the world. Strengthening Eastern European Trade Ties Between 2021 and 2024, total exports from Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Lithuania, Romania, and Bulgaria to Ukraine rose by approximately 75%. While much of this growth was driven by war-related goods, including dual-use products and materials for replacing damaged infrastructure, other sectors also expanded. During this period, Poland emerged as a key trade partner, becoming the top importer of Ukrainian goods and the second-largest global exporter to Ukraine, after China. Polish exports to Ukraine more than doubled between 2021 and 2024, surpassing those from Germany. Aleksandra Sojka, one of the report's authors, says Poland could strengthen its position as a regional leader by moving from trade exchange to active investment, particularly through foreign direct investment and joint ventures. However, due to high investment risk, Poland should establish state guarantees and financial instruments to shift this burden away from the private sector, she notes. In contrast to exports, imports from Ukraine into Central Europe have shown significant volatility in recent years. In 2022, Ukrainian exports surged to €15.8 billion from €10.8 billion the year before, as Russia's invasion disrupted Black Sea shipping routes and redirected trade through Central Europe. Agricultural products, including grain, vegetable oils, and seeds, were rerouted via neighboring countries, which became critical export corridors. Over the past decade, Ukraine has reoriented its trade away from the Commonwealth of Independent States—a bloc of post-Soviet countries led by Russia—towards the EU. Deepending EU Ties Ukraine's potential EU membership would mark a significant milestone in deepening bilateral economic ties, building on momentum that began with the 2014 Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine. The agreement established a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), which came into full effect in September 2017. Following Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, the EU introduced Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs), suspending tariffs and quotas on Ukrainian goods. Risks of a Negative Scenario The report also explores the potential consequences if Ukraine fails to join the EU. In the event of military defeat or an unfavorable ceasefire leading to Russian domination, Ukraine could lose access to the Black Sea, its primary export route. Exclusion from EU structures, combined with declining productivity and intensified migration pressures following a military collapse, could result in a GDP drop of over 22%. In practice, the report warns, losses could be even more severe, as the model does not fully account for the long-term impact of regional instability on foreign investment.
Russia Today
6 days ago
- Politics
- Russia Today
EU state blocks accession talks with Ukraine
Hungary has vetoed a joint EU statement on Ukraine at the bloc's Foreign Affairs Council in Brussels, effectively blocking Kiev's accession talks, according to a communique published on Thursday on the European Council's website. The statement, which urged the council to open membership negotiations with Ukraine, was 'firmly supported by 26 heads of state' out of 27 EU members, the document read. As unanimous approval is required, talks cannot begin until Hungary reverses its stance. The communique noted that the council will revisit the issue at its next meeting in October. While the document did not name Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban confirmed the veto in comments to reporters. 'We stopped Ukraine's EU accession with the votes of Voks2025, and I needed it, because I was almost swept away by the public anger when I announced that Hungary would not agree to start negotiations with Ukraine,' Orban said, referencing the national referendum which concluded on June 20. More than 2 million Hungarians, or 95% of voters, rejected Ukraine's EU bid, according to the prime minister. 'I had to remind [the council] that the most important criterion [for accession] is that there is in fact a country,' he said. 'There must be a defined identity, borders, a population, a territory, and in the case of Ukraine, none of these apply.' Ukraine made EU accession a national priority in 2019, formally applying in 2022 shortly after the escalation of its conflict with Russia. The EU granted Kiev candidate status later that year and set a 2030 target for membership. While Brussels supports the move, critics argue that Ukraine's institutions and economy are unprepared, and the cost would strain the bloc. Budapest opposes EU membership for Ukraine, warning it could escalate tensions with Russia and burden EU taxpayers with decades of military aid. Alongside Hungary, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Polish officials have raised concerns. A recent IBRiS poll shows only 35% of Poles support Ukraine's EU bid, down from 85% in 2022. Moscow strongly opposes Ukraine joining NATO, but had previously taken a neutral stance on its EU ambitions, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying in March that Ukraine has the 'sovereign right' to join if the bloc remains focused on economics. However, with Brussels ramping up defense spending, Russian officials have recently grown critical. Peskov earlier this week called EU militarization 'rabid,' while former President Dmitry Medvedev said the bloc has become 'no less of a threat' to Russia than NATO. 'This is a politicized, globalist, and fiercely Russophobic organization,' Medvedev wrote on Telegram on Wednesday. 'Thus, the so-called 'Ukraine in the EU' is a danger to our country.'
Associated Press
13-05-2025
- Politics
- Associated Press
European Council president says Serbia's leader has vowed to stay on the EU path despite Russia trip
BELGRADE, Serbia (AP) — European Council President António Costa on Tuesday criticized Serbia populist president's trip to Russia's Victory Day ceremonies last week, but said that he received assurances that the troubled Balkan nation nonetheless will remain on the path toward European Union accession. Costa said in Belgrade — at the start of his tour of six Western Balkan membership hopefuls — that 'a lot of people asked me not to come' to Serbia. But he said that he decided to come, and that he wanted to 'clarify' President Aleksandar Vucic's visit to Moscow last week. Vucic, Costa said, 'explained to me it was a moment to celebrate an event from the past.' 'We cannot rewrite the history, and (we) fully understand that Serbia celebrates (its) liberation' by Soviet troops, Costa said, before referring to the Russia-Ukraine war. 'But we cannot celebrate the liberation 80 years ago and don't condemn an invasion of another country today.' Now, Costa said, 'we can reaffirm, and it's important to hear from him (Vucic) to publicly reaffirm, that he is fully committed with the European Union and with the accession path.' Vucic, a former extreme nationalist criticized at home and abroad over alleged increasingly authoritarian ways, has maintained close relations with both Russia and China while formally saying that he wants Serbia to join the EU. Vucic has said his decision to attend Russian President Vladimir Putin's military parade marking the World War II victory over Nazi Germany, was part of efforts to maintain 'traditional friendships' — Russia is a fellow Slavic and Orthodox Christian nation —while seeking EU entry. Serbia, which relies almost fully on Russia for energy, has refused to join Western sanctions on Russia over the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and hasn't supported most EU statements condemning the aggression. Belgrade instead has backed a U.N. resolution criticizing Russia's attack. Vucic said that he expected 'reaction and attacks' over the Moscow trip at an upcoming European Political Community summit in Albania. He pledged that Serbia will soon pass media and anti-corruption laws needed to move forward in the accession process. Serbia, he said, 'sees itself now and in the future as on the EU path and as a member of the European Union.' Vucic also has been under pressure at home following six months of major anti-corruption protests that erupted after a train station tragedy in Serbia's north that killed 16 people and which many in the country blamed on graft in infrastructure construction. A group of Serbian university students — who have been a key force behind the protests — were in Brussels this week after running a relay-style marathon there to draw EU attention to their struggle for justice and the rule of law that they say has been dismantled under Vucic's tight rule in the country. From Belgrade, Costa will travel later on Tuesday to Bosnia-Herzegovina where separatist policies of a Serb-run entity's president have revived ethnic tensions long after a 1992-95 war, and stalled pro-EU reforms. Montenegro and Albania have been at the forefront of the membership path while Serbia, Bosnia, Kosovo and North Macedonia are lagging behind. The EU's willingness to accept new members has grown since the all-out war in Ukraine started on Feb. 24, 2022, fearing the conflict could fuel instability in the volatile Balkans.
The Independent
13-05-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
European Council president says Serbia's leader has vowed to stay on the EU path despite Russia trip
European Council President António Costa on Tuesday criticized Serbia populist president's trip to Russia 's Victory Day ceremonies last week, but said that he received assurances that the troubled Balkan nation nonetheless will remain on the path toward European Union accession. Costa said in Belgrade — at the start of his tour of six Western Balkan membership hopefuls — that 'a lot of people asked me not to come' to Serbia. But he said that he decided to come, and that he wanted to 'clarify' President Aleksandar Vucic 's visit to Moscow last week. Vucic, Costa said, 'explained to me it was a moment to celebrate an event from the past." 'We cannot rewrite the history, and (we) fully understand that Serbia celebrates (its) liberation' by Soviet troops, Costa said, before referring to the Russia-Ukraine war. 'But we cannot celebrate the liberation 80 years ago and don't condemn an invasion of another country today.' Now, Costa said, 'we can reaffirm, and it's important to hear from him (Vucic) to publicly reaffirm, that he is fully committed with the European Union and with the accession path.' Vucic, a former extreme nationalist criticized at home and abroad over alleged increasingly authoritarian ways, has maintained close relations with both Russia and China while formally saying that he wants Serbia to join the EU. Vucic has said his decision to attend Russian President Vladimir Putin's military parade marking the World War II victory over Nazi Germany, was part of efforts to maintain 'traditional friendships' — Russia is a fellow Slavic and Orthodox Christian nation —while seeking EU entry. Serbia, which relies almost fully on Russia for energy, has refused to join Western sanctions on Russia over the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and hasn't supported most EU statements condemning the aggression. Belgrade instead has backed a U.N. resolution criticizing Russia's attack. Vucic said that he expected 'reaction and attacks' over the Moscow trip at an upcoming European Political Community summit in Albania. He pledged that Serbia will soon pass media and anti-corruption laws needed to move forward in the accession process. Serbia, he said, 'sees itself now and in the future as on the EU path and as a member of the European Union.' Vucic also has been under pressure at home following six months of major anti-corruption protests that erupted after a train station tragedy in Serbia's north that killed 16 people and which many in the country blamed on graft in infrastructure construction. A group of Serbian university students — who have been a key force behind the protests — were in Brussels this week after running a relay-style marathon there to draw EU attention to their struggle for justice and the rule of law that they say has been dismantled under Vucic's tight rule in the country. From Belgrade, Costa will travel later on Tuesday to Bosnia-Herzegovina where separatist policies of a Serb-run entity's president have revived ethnic tensions long after a 1992-95 war, and stalled pro-EU reforms. Montenegro and Albania have been at the forefront of the membership path while Serbia, Bosnia, Kosovo and North Macedonia are lagging behind. The EU's willingness to accept new members has grown since the all-out war in Ukraine started on Feb. 24, 2022, fearing the conflict could fuel instability in the volatile Balkans.
The Guardian
12-05-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Edi Rama on course to win fourth term as PM in Albania elections
Albania's prime minister, Edi Rama, is poised for victory in general elections after preliminary results showed voters returning him to power for an unprecedented fourth term. With 30% of the ballots counted, Rama's party was leading the leftwing Socialists to a resounding win over Sali Berisha's centre-right Democratic party in a poll viewed as pivotal for the Balkan country's attempt to join the EU. The incumbent party had garnered 53% of the vote compared with 34% for its main opposition rival. Preliminary turnout in Sunday's election was almost 42.16%, or 4% lower than four years ago. 'It's a result exceeding all expectations even before the ballots have been fully counted,' said a well-placed source in Tirana. 'A fourth consecutive win is phenomenal. Edi has cause to be very happy.' In office since 2013, Rama had campaigned on his ability to fast-track reforms deemed vital for the ex-communist state to accede to the EU. The 60-year-old has promised to deliver membership within five years after formally opening accession negotiations last October. The goal, seen by many as highly ambitious, has been aided by the desire of some European leaders to see Albania and other western Balkan states join the bloc following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The country's first president after the fall of communism more than three decades ago, Berisha, 80, argued Albania was far from ready for EU admission. Once the personal physician of the late Stalinist dictator Enver Hoxha, the cardiologist had run a US-style campaign overseen by consultants brought in from Washington DC, including Chris LaCivita, the Republican strategist credited with helping secure Donald Trump's victory in November. Berisha had made his campaign motto 'Make Albania Great Again'. The Democratic party had joined forces with 20 other political groups in the hope of removing Rama from office. But by early on Monday, as ballots were counted by hand, it was clear the Socialists were in the ascendancy. Analysts said the Socialist party appeared to have won backing from overseas voters after Albania's large expatriate community was allowed to cast ballots by post for the first time. More than 192,000 votes were received from the nearly 246,000 Albanians who had registered to vote abroad before Sunday's election in the 2.7 million-strong nation. An overwhelming 83% of Albanians support EU membership, the highest endorsement of any population in the western Balkans, according to a Eurobarometer survey released in November. Rama, who served as mayor of Tirana before going into mainstream politics – livening up the capital's drab cityscape by having its communist-era buildings painted in an array of colours – has made the country's EU accession a priority. Supporters attending his weekly rallies turned the quest into a hallmark by donning white T-shirts emblazoned with a large multicoloured '5' – indicating the years left until 2030. The promise of EU membership was a big draw for diaspora voters, said Albania's ambassador to Greece, Luela Hajdaraga. 'Albanians living abroad were very eager to participate in this historic process and have their voices heard,' she said. 'In Greece, especially, where the issue of gaining citizenship has been so difficult, the prospect of Albania joining the EU is seen very positively.' Rama has said that Albania, for decades the continent's most isolated state, is 'at the gates of Europe'. The country has opened 16 of the 35 negotiating chapters for membership of the bloc. But in a land blighted by corruption and organised crime, he also faces challenges, not least mass emigration as young Albanians seek better lives abroad.
