Latest news with #EURUSD
Yahoo
5 hours ago
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Dollar Pressured by Signs of Slower US Manufacturing Activity
The dollar index (DXY00) today is slightly lower by -0.03%. The dollar gave up an early advance and dropped to a 2.5-week low on today's weaker-than-expected US PMI and new home sales reports. The dollar also fell as improved prospects for an EU trade agreement with the US boosted the euro. The dollar today initially moved higher after weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a 3-month low, a sign of labor market strength that was hawkish for Fed policy and positive for the dollar. More News from Barchart As Silver Scores a Nearly 14-Year High, New Records Could Be Just Around the Corner for Precious Metals Will Metals Stay in the Spotlight Wednesday? Possible EU-US Trade Deal Weighs on the Dollar Tired of missing midday reversals? The FREE Barchart Brief newsletter keeps you in the know. Sign up now! US weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -4,000 to a 3-month low of 217,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 226,000. The US June Chicago Fed national activity index rose +0.06 to -0.10, stronger than expectations of -0.15. The July S&P US manufacturing PMI fell -3.4 to 49.5, weaker than expectations of 52.7 and the lowest level in 7 months. US June new home sales rose +0.6% m/m to 627,000, weaker than expectations of +4.3% m/m to 650,000. Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 3% at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting and 63% at the following meeting on September 16-17. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) today is up by +0.04% and posted a 2.5-week high. Signs of strength in the Eurozone economy boosted the euro today after the Eurozone July S&P manufacturing PMI rose to a 3-year high and the July S&P composite PMI rose to an 11-month high. The euro also garnered support today after the ECB kept interest rates unchanged and said the Eurozone economy has so far proven resilient. However, the euro was undercut by comments from ECB President Lagarde, who said the economic risks to the Eurozone are tilted to the downside and a stronger euro could dampen inflation more than expected. The Eurozone July S&P manufacturing PMI rose +0.3 to a 3-year high of 49.8, right on expectations. The Eurozone July S&P composite PMI rose +0.4 to an 11-month high of 51.0, stronger than expectations of +0.1 to 50.7. Eurozone June new car registrations fell -7.3% y/y to 1.010 million units, the largest decline in 10 months. The German Aug GfK consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell -1.2 to a 4-month low of -21.5, weaker than expectations of an increase to -19.3. As expected, the ECB kept the deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.00%. The ECB said, "Inflation is currently at the 2% medium-term target" and the economy has so far proven resilient, but the environment remains uncertain due to trade disputes. Swaps are pricing in a 26% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) today is up by +0.03%. The yen fell from a 2-week high against the dollar today and turned slightly lower after the Nikkei Stock Index rallied to a 1-year high, which reduced the safe-haven demand for the yen. Losses in the yen accelerated after T-note yields rose. The yen initially moved higher today on speculation that the BOJ is closer to raising interest rates, following Wednesday's trade agreement between the US and Japan, which removed uncertainty from the market. The yen continues to be undercut by concerns that the LDP's loss of its majority in Japan's upper house in Sunday's elections may lead to fiscal deterioration in Japan's government finances, as the government boosts spending and implements tax cuts. Today's Japanese economic news was mixed for the yen. The Japan July S&P manufacturing PMI fell -1.3 to 48.8. However, the July S&P services PMI rose +1.8 to a 5-month high of 53.5. August gold (GCQ25) today is down -21.7 (-0.64%), and September silver (SIU25) is down -0.193 (-0.49%). Precious metals are under pressure today as an easing of global trade tensions has reduced safe-haven demand for the metals. The US and Japan agreed to a trade deal on Wednesday, and Bloomberg reported that the European Union (EU) and the US are progressing toward a trade agreement. Higher global bond yields today are also undercutting the prices of precious metals. In addition, today's action by the ECB to keep interest rates unchanged, along with its post-meeting statement that the Eurozone economy is proving resilient, was bearish for precious metals. Precious metals prices have underlying support after the dollar index slipped to a 2.5-week low. Precious metals continue to receive safe-haven support from geopolitical risks, including the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Fund buying of precious metals continues to support prices after gold holdings in ETFs rose to a two-year high on Wednesday, and silver holdings in ETFs reached a three-year high on the same day. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
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Possible EU-US Trade Deal Weighs on the Dollar
The dollar index (DXY00) on Wednesday fell by -0.18%. The dollar gave up an early advance Wednesday and fell to a 2-week low. Improved prospects for an EU trade agreement with the US boosted the euro and undercut the dollar. The dollar also fell after US existing home sales fell more than expected to a 9-month low. The dollar initially moved higher on Wednesday on reduced global trade tensions following the US's agreement to a trade deal with Japan. Also, stronger T-note yields on Wednesday improved the dollar's interest rate differentials. More News from Barchart Dollar Falls due to Lower T-note Yields Dollar Weakens and Gold Rallies as T-note Yields Slide Will Metals Stay in the Spotlight Wednesday? Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! US June existing home sales fell -2.7% m/m to a 9-month low of 3.93 million, weaker than expectations of -0.7% to 4.00 million. Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 4% at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting and 58% at the following meeting on September 16-17. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) Wednesday rose by +0.13%. The euro recovered from early losses Wednesday and climbed to a 2-week high on a report that said EU negotiators were close to a trade deal with the US. Also, the larger-than-expected increase in the Eurozone Jul consumer confidence index to a 4-month high was bullish for the euro. In addition, expectations for the ECB to keep interest rates unchanged at Thursday's policy meeting are supportive for the euro. The Eurozone Jul consumer confidence index rose +0.6 to a 4-month high of -14.7, stronger than expectations of +0.3 to -15.0. Diplomats briefed on the situation said the European Union (EU) and the US are progressing toward an agreement that would set a 15% tariff for most imports, lower than the 30% rate President Trump had threatened on EU goods if no trade agreement is reached by August 1. Swaps are pricing in a 1% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at Thursday's policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) Wednesday fell by -0.04%. The yen rose to a 1.5-week high against the dollar Wednesday after the US and Japan reached a trade agreement. The yen also garnered support today on hawkish comments from BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida, which pushed the 10-year JGB bond yield up to a 16-year high of 1.616%. This was prompted by his statement that the trade deal between the US and Japan brings the BOJ closer to raising interest rates. Limiting gains in the yen on Wednesday were higher T-note yields. The upside in the yen in the near term may be limited due to concerns that the LDP's loss of its majority in Japan's upper house in Sunday's elections may lead to fiscal deterioration in Japan's government finances, as the government boosts spending and implements tax cuts. BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida said, 'Uncertainty has receded' after a trade deal was made with Japan and the US, which will push the BOJ closer to a rate hike by boosting the prospects for suitable economic conditions. President Trump announced a trade deal with Japan late Tuesday, which will impose 15% tariffs on US imports from Japan, lower than the previously flagged 25% rate set to take effect on August 1. The deal also creates a $550 billion fund for Japan to make investments in the US. Japan also agreed to purchase 100 Boeing aircraft, increase its purchases of US rice by 75%, and buy $8 billion in other agricultural products, while raising its defense spending with American firms to $17 billion annually, from $14 billion. August gold (GCQ25) Wednesday closed down -46.1 (-1.34%), and September silver (SIU25) closed down -0.052 (-0.13%). Precious metals on Wednesday gave up an early advance and retreated as easing global trade tensions curbed safe-haven demand for the metals. Trade tensions eased after the US and Japan agreed to a trade deal, and after diplomats briefed on the situation stated that the European Union (EU) and the US are progressing toward an agreement that would impose a 15% tariff on most imports. Wednesday's rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high also sparked long liquidation in precious metals. Higher global bond yields on Wednesday also undercut the prices of precious metals. In addition, hawkish comments from BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida weighed on precious metals when he said the trade deal between Japan and the US pushes the BOJ closer to a rate hike. Silver prices also slipped after US existing home sales fell more than expected to a 9-month low, a negative factor for industrial metals demand. Gold prices on Wednesday initially climbed to a 5-week high, and Sep silver posted a contract high while nearest-futures (N25) silver posted a 14-year high. Weakness in the dollar on Wednesday was supportive for metals prices, as the dollar index fell to a 2-week low. Precious metals continue to receive safe-haven support from geopolitical risks, including the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Fund buying of precious metals continues to support prices after gold holdings in ETFs rose to a two-year high on Tuesday, and silver holdings in ETFs reached a three-year high on the same day. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Dollar Supported by Reduced Trade Tensions and Higher Bond Yields
The dollar index (DXY00) today is up by +0.10%. The dollar is climbing today on reduced global trade tensions after the US agreed to a trade deal with Japan. Strength in T-note yields today has also improved the dollar's interest rate differentials. Gains in the dollar are limited after US existing home sales fell more than expected to a 9-month low. US June existing home sales fell -2.7% m/m to a 9-month low of 3.93 million, weaker than expectations of -0.7% to 4.00 million. More News from Barchart Dollar Falls due to Lower T-note Yields Dollar Weakens and Gold Rallies as T-note Yields Slide Will Metals Stay in the Spotlight Wednesday? Get exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else. Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 5% at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting and 58% at the following meeting on September 16-17. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) today is down by -0.24%. The euro is under pressure today from a stronger dollar. The euro is also weighed down by a Bloomberg report that stated the European Union plans to impose 30% tariffs on approximately $117 billion (100 billion euros) worth of US goods in the event that President Trump raises tariffs on EU goods if no trade deal with the US is reached by August 1. Swaps are pricing in a 1% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at Thursday's policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) today is down by -0.05%. The yen rose to a 1.5-week high against the dollar today after the US and Japan reached a trade agreement. The yen also garnered support today on hawkish comments from BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida, which pushed the 10-year JGB bond yield up to a 16-year high of 1.616%. This was prompted by his statement that the trade deal between the US and Japan brings the BOJ closer to raising interest rates. Higher T-note yields today are limiting gains in the yen. The upside in the yen in the near term may be limited due to concerns that the LDP's loss of its majority in Japan's upper house in Sunday's elections may lead to fiscal deterioration in Japan's government finances, as the government boosts spending and implements tax cuts. BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida said "uncertainty has receded" after a trade deal was made with Japan and the US, which will push the BOJ closer to a rate hike by boosting the prospects for suitable economic conditions. President Trump late Tuesday announced a trade deal with Japan that will impose 15% tariffs on US imports from Japan, lower than the 25% rate that had been previously flagged to start on August 1, while creating a $550 billion fund for Japan to make investments in the US. Japan also agreed to purchase 100 Boeing aircraft, increase its purchases of US rice by 75%, and buy $8 billion in other agricultural products, while raising its defense spending with American firms to $17 billion annually, from $14 billion. August gold (GCQ25) today is down -21.2 (-0.62%), and September silver (SIU25) is up +0.200 (+0.51%). Precious metals today are mixed, with Sep silver posting a contract high and nearest-futures (N25) silver posting a 14-year high. Gold prices fell from a 5-week high today and turned lower as global trade tensions eased after the US and Japan agreed to a trade deal. Dollar strength today and higher global bond yields are also weighing on precious metals. Hawkish comments today from BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida undercut precious metals when he said the trade deal between Japan and the US pushes the BOJ closer to a rate hike. Silver prices fell back from their best levels after US existing home sales fell more than expected to a 9-month low, a negative factor for industrial metals demand. Precious metals continue to receive safe-haven support from geopolitical risks, including the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Fund buying of precious metals continues to support prices after gold holdings in ETFs rose to a two-year high on Tuesday, and silver holdings in ETFs climbed to a three-year high on Tuesday. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
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Dollar Falls due to Lower T-note Yields
The dollar index (DXY00) on Tuesday fell by -0.47% and posted a 1.5-week low. The dollar was under pressure Tuesday from lower T-note yields. Losses in the dollar accelerated after the US July Richmond Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to an 11-month low. The dollar found some underlying support Tuesday on comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent, who said, 'he sees no reason for Fed Chair Powell to step down right now.' The dollar has been under pressure due to concern President Trump might fire Powell, which could prompt foreign investors to shun dollar assets over questions of the Fed's independence. More News from Barchart Dollar Falls as Stocks Rally and T-note Yields Decline Dollar Slips Due to Strength in Stocks and Lower T-note Yields Dollar Weakens and Gold Rallies as T-note Yields Slide Get exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else. The US July Richmond Fed manufacturing survey of current conditions index unexpectedly fell -12 to an 11-month low of -20, weaker than expectations of an increase to -2. Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 5% at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting and 58% at the following meeting on September 16-17. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) Tuesday rose by +0.47% and posted a 2-week high. Dollar weakness on Tuesday boosted the euro. The euro also has support on expectations that the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged at Thursday's policy meeting. Gains in the euro were limited after Tuesday's quarterly Bank Lending Survey from the ECB said that loan demand remained weak, a dovish factor for ECB policy and negative for the euro. The euro is also under pressure on concerns that President Trump is pushing for a minimum tariff of 15%-20% in any trade deal with the European Union (EU), as Mr. Trump has remained unmoved by the latest EU offer to reduce car tariffs. Higher tariff rates on EU goods could undercut the Eurozone economy, a bearish factor for the euro. The ECB's quarterly Bank Lending Survey stated that 'Loan demand was supported by declining interest rates, but dampened by global uncertainty and trade tensions, and while lenders saw a slight net increase in loan demand in Q2, the uptake remained weak overall.' Swaps are pricing in a 2% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at Thursday's policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) Tuesday fell by -0.58%. The yen recovered from overnight losses and climbed to a 1-week high against the dollar Tuesday after T-note yields fell when Treasury Secretary Bessent said 'he sees no reason for Fed Chair Powell to step down right now.' The yen initially moved lower Tuesday after Bloomberg reported that BOJ policymakers will likely keep the policy rate at 0.5% at next week's BOJ meeting. The upside in the yen in the near term may be limited due to concerns that the LDP's loss of its majority in Japan's upper house in Sunday's elections may lead to fiscal deterioration in Japan's government finances, as the government boosts spending and implements tax cuts. A report from Bloomberg said that Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials see little need to shift their policy stance of gradually raising interest rates after Prime Minister Ishiba's election setback and that policymakers will likely keep the policy rate at 0.5% at next week's BOJ meeting. Policymakers also want to see how any trade deal between Japan and the US affects the inflation trend and the economy going forward before raising rates again. August gold (GCQ25) Tuesday closed up +37.30 (+1.09%), and September silver (SIU25) closed up +0.221 (+0.56%). Precious metals settled higher on Tuesday, with gold climbing to a 5-week high, Sep silver posting a contract high, and nearest-futures (N25) silver posting a nearly 14-year high. Tuesday's fall in the dollar index to a 1.5-week low was bullish for metals prices. Also, lower global bond yields on Tuesday were supportive for precious metals. In addition, precious metals garnered support from today's ECB quarterly Bank Lending Survey, which said loan demand remained weak in Q2, a dovish factor for ECB policy. Finally, precious metals have safe-haven support from global trade tensions, following President Trump's announcement last Wednesday that he intends to send a tariff letter to more than 150 countries, notifying them that their tariff rates could be 10% or 15%, effective August 1. Fund buying of gold continues to support prices after gold holdings in ETFs rose to a nearly 2-year high Monday. Silver prices were undercut Tuesday after the US July Richmond Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to an 11-month low, a negative factor for industrial metals demand. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
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Dollar Slips Due to Strength in Stocks and Lower T-note Yields
The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.54%. The dollar is retreating today as strength in stocks has reduced liquidity demand for the dollar. Lower T-note yields today are also pressuring the dollar. US June leading economic indicators fell 0.3% m/m, right on expectations. More News from Barchart Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 5% at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting and 58% at the following meeting on September 16-17. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) today is up by +0.47%. The euro is climbing today due to a weaker dollar. Also, expectations that the ECB is closer to the end of its easing cycle than the Federal Reserve are boosting the euro as the ECB has cut interest rates four times this year while the Fed has not cut rates yet this year. Additionally, US trade policies are prompting foreign investors to shift away from dollar-denominated assets and into euro-denominated assets. Gains in the euro are limited due to concerns that President Trump is pushing for a minimum tariff of 15%-20% in any trade deal with the European Union (EU), as Mr. Trump has remained unmoved by the latest EU offer to reduce car tariffs. Higher tariff rates on EU goods could undercut the Eurozone economy, a bearish factor for the euro. Swaps are pricing in a 1% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at Thursday's policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) today is down by -0.96%. The yen is climbing today against the dollar after Prime Minister Ishiba said he would carry on as leader despite his ruling coalition LDP losing its majority after Sunday's upper house elections. Any moves in the yen today may be excessive due to below-average trading volume with Japanese markets closed for the Marine Day holiday. The upside in the yen in the near term may be limited due to concerns that the LDP's loss of its majority in Japan's upper house may lead to fiscal deterioration in Japan's government finances, as the government boosts spending and implements tax cuts. Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost its majority in the upper house after Sunday's elections, with the LDP party winning only 47 seats, below the 50 it needed to win to maintain control. August gold (GCQ25) today is up +53.50 (+1.59%), and September silver (SIU25) is up +0.821 (+2.13%). Precious metals are moving sharply higher today, with gold reaching a 4-week high. Today's dollar weakness and lower global government bond yields are bullish for precious metals. Also, precious metals have carryover support from last Friday when Fed Governor Waller expressed support for a Fed interest rate cut at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting. In addition, precious metals have safe-haven support from global trade tensions, following President Trump's announcement last Wednesday that he intends to send a tariff letter to more than 150 countries, notifying them that their tariff rates could be 10% or 15%, effective August 1. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
