Latest news with #Earth-orbiting
Time of India
14-07-2025
- Science
- Time of India
Why scientists are still worried about Asteroid 2024 YR4 even though Earth is safe
Asteroids don't need to be on a collision course with Earth to make headlines. Take asteroid 2024 YR4 , for example, a space rock that was once thought to pose a small risk to Earth but is now being closely watched for a possible Moon impact in 2032. According to a report by scientists say there's currently a 4% chance the asteroid could hit the Moon. Although it no longer poses any threat to our planet, a possible collision with the Moon could have effects that go beyond just a big lunar crater. No risk to Earth, but the Moon is being monitored As per asteroid 2024 YR4 was initially flagged with a 1 in 43 chance of hitting Earth. However, with fresh telescope data, astronomers have ruled out that possibility. Now, their focus has shifted to the Moon, which may be in the asteroid's path when it makes a close approach in 2032. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 2 Kapseln pro Tag! Am 3. Tag passt die Hose nicht mehr! Apotheke Regional Undo Astronomer Paul Wiegert from the University of Western Ontario told 'A 2024 YR4 impact on the moon would pose no risk to anything on the surface of the Earth... but the impact could pose some danger to equipment or astronauts (if any) on the moon, and certainly to satellites and other Earth-orbiting platforms.' How strong would a lunar impact be? If asteroid 2024 YR4 does strike the Moon, scientists estimate it could release energy equal to 6 million tons of TNT, making it the largest lunar impact in nearly 5,000 years. The impact could create a 1-kilometre-wide crater, says the report. Live Events Most of the debris from such a collision would fall back to the Moon. However, experts suggest that a small percentage, around 0.02% to 0.2%, could escape into space, which raises new concerns for objects in orbit around Earth. Could lunar debris threaten satellites? Although Earth is safe from any direct impact, space debris could still be a problem. Wiegert, as quoted by explained that this debris could add 'a flux of meteoroids 10 to 1,000 times higher than the normal background for a few days.' Travelling at speeds of nearly 22,400 miles per hour (or 10 km/s), these fragments might be slower than typical meteors but still fast enough to damage satellites or space-based assets. Some of this material could orbit Earth for years, posing a long-term risk to space infrastructure. Is Earth completely safe from the debris? Yes, says Wiegert, the surface of Earth is protected by its atmosphere. 'The debris will burn up... we don't expect there to be many pieces large enough to survive,' he told To cause any damage on Earth, a piece would need to be 1 metre or larger, and most expected debris will be much smaller, more like pebbles or dust. Still, for satellite operators and space agencies, even small particles in orbit can cause trouble, making this potential Moon strike worth tracking closely. Does this need a new asteroid threat scale? The idea of creating a new risk scale for events like this has been raised, but experts aren't convinced. Planetary scientist Richard P. Binzel of MIT told that a new scale isn't needed, as 'the indirect consequences are too varied to compress into a single scale.' He added that asteroid monitoring is already effective, saying, 'What one can control... is determining with certainty whether you have a hit or miss.' What happens next? Wait till 2028 for updates For now, astronomers will wait until 2028, when asteroid 2024 YR4 comes into view again. That's when they expect to update the Moon impact probability, which currently sits at 4%. 'The whole event would be exciting to watch in binoculars or a small telescope,' Wiegert told The current research findings have been submitted to the American Astronomical Society and are also available as a preprint on arXiv, according to the same report. Inputs from TOI
Economic Times
14-07-2025
- Science
- Economic Times
Why scientists are still worried about Asteroid 2024 YR4 even though Earth is safe
Synopsis Asteroid 2024 YR4, initially considered a minor threat to Earth, is now being monitored for a potential Moon impact in 2032. While Earth is safe, a collision could release energy equivalent to 6 million tons of TNT, creating a large crater and potentially sending debris into Earth's orbit, posing risks to satellites. Astronomers will refine the impact probability in 2028. Representative image Asteroids don't need to be on a collision course with Earth to make headlines. Take asteroid 2024 YR4, for example, a space rock that was once thought to pose a small risk to Earth but is now being closely watched for a possible Moon impact in to a report by scientists say there's currently a 4% chance the asteroid could hit the Moon. Although it no longer poses any threat to our planet, a possible collision with the Moon could have effects that go beyond just a big lunar crater. As per asteroid 2024 YR4 was initially flagged with a 1 in 43 chance of hitting Earth. However, with fresh telescope data, astronomers have ruled out that possibility. Now, their focus has shifted to the Moon, which may be in the asteroid's path when it makes a close approach in Paul Wiegert from the University of Western Ontario told 'A 2024 YR4 impact on the moon would pose no risk to anything on the surface of the Earth... but the impact could pose some danger to equipment or astronauts (if any) on the moon, and certainly to satellites and other Earth-orbiting platforms.'If asteroid 2024 YR4 does strike the Moon, scientists estimate it could release energy equal to 6 million tons of TNT, making it the largest lunar impact in nearly 5,000 years. The impact could create a 1-kilometre-wide crater, says the report. Most of the debris from such a collision would fall back to the Moon. However, experts suggest that a small percentage, around 0.02% to 0.2%, could escape into space, which raises new concerns for objects in orbit around Earth is safe from any direct impact, space debris could still be a problem. Wiegert, as quoted by explained that this debris could add 'a flux of meteoroids 10 to 1,000 times higher than the normal background for a few days.'Travelling at speeds of nearly 22,400 miles per hour (or 10 km/s), these fragments might be slower than typical meteors but still fast enough to damage satellites or space-based assets. Some of this material could orbit Earth for years, posing a long-term risk to space says Wiegert, the surface of Earth is protected by its atmosphere. 'The debris will burn up... we don't expect there to be many pieces large enough to survive,' he told To cause any damage on Earth, a piece would need to be 1 metre or larger, and most expected debris will be much smaller, more like pebbles or for satellite operators and space agencies, even small particles in orbit can cause trouble, making this potential Moon strike worth tracking idea of creating a new risk scale for events like this has been raised, but experts aren't convinced. Planetary scientist Richard P. Binzel of MIT told that a new scale isn't needed, as 'the indirect consequences are too varied to compress into a single scale.'He added that asteroid monitoring is already effective, saying, 'What one can control... is determining with certainty whether you have a hit or miss.'For now, astronomers will wait until 2028, when asteroid 2024 YR4 comes into view again. That's when they expect to update the Moon impact probability, which currently sits at 4%.'The whole event would be exciting to watch in binoculars or a small telescope,' Wiegert told The current research findings have been submitted to the American Astronomical Society and are also available as a preprint on arXiv, according to the same report. Inputs from TOI
Time of India
14-07-2025
- Science
- Time of India
Asteroid 2024 YR4 won't hit Earth— So why are scientists still worried?
Asteroids don't always need to head straight for Earth to draw global attention. The case of asteroid 2024 YR4 is proving just that. Once flagged for a potential Earth impact, this 200-foot-wide object has since been ruled out as a threat to our planet. But now, astronomers are monitoring a different possibility– one that puts the Moon in the line of fire. With a projected 4% chance of striking the lunar surface in 2032, the asteroid might not pose any risk to people on Earth, but the consequences of such a collision could still reach closer to home, especially for satellites and orbiting infrastructure. Initial Earth threat ruled out As mentioned in a recent report by Space(dot)com, asteroid 2024 YR4 was initially tracked with a 1 in 43 chance of hitting Earth. That concern has now been cleared with fresh data, confirming there's no risk to our planet. However, the focus has shifted to the Moon, which scientists say could be struck by the asteroid in less than a decade. Astronomer Paul Wiegert from the University of Western Ontario told Space(dot)com, 'A 2024 YR4 impact on the moon would pose no risk to anything on the surface of the Earth: our atmosphere will shield us. But the impact could pose some danger to equipment or astronauts (if any) on the moon, and certainly to satellites and other Earth-orbiting platforms, which are above our atmosphere.' An explosion unseen in Millennia According to the report, if the asteroid does collide with the Moon, the impact is expected to be massive. Scientists estimate it would release energy equivalent to 6 million tons of TNT, making it the most powerful lunar impact in nearly 5,000 years. As per Wiegert and as quoted by Space(dot)com, the collision would create a crater about 1 kilometre wide. While most of the debris from the impact would fall back to the Moon, a small percentage– estimated at between 0.02% and 0.2% – could escape into space. Lunar debris could threaten satellites Though the escaped fraction may seem small, it could translate to 10–100 million kilograms of lunar material. This debris could pose a serious challenge to objects in Earth's orbit. 'The YR4 impact, if it occurs and if it occurs in a favorable location, could produce a flux of meteoroids 10 to 1,000 times higher than the normal background for a few days,' Wiegert said, as quoted by Space(dot)com. As mentioned in the report, the fragments would travel at around 22,400 miles per hour (10 km/s) – slower than regular meteors but still fast enough to damage satellites or space-based assets. Earth's atmosphere offers protection Despite the volume of debris, Earth's surface remains well protected. 'The debris will burn up in Earth's atmosphere. We don't expect there to be many pieces large enough to survive passing through Earth's atmosphere,' Wiegert said. He added, 'A rock would have to be 3.3 feet (1 meter) or more in diameter to survive entry, but we expect most of the debris to be inches or smaller.' While ground-based life is safe, the debris could continue orbiting Earth for years, raising concerns about long-term satellite safety. Does this call for a new risk scale? Given the possibility of indirect space hazards, some have raised questions about the need for a system to evaluate such events. But experts say a new scale isn't necessary. Richard P. Binzel, the planetary scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told Space(dot)com, 'No, the indirect consequences are too varied to compress into a single scale.' He explained further, 'The Torino Scale is all about whether a passing asteroid merits attention in the first place, and of course, most asteroids don't.' Binzel also underlined the importance of tracking asteroids accurately. 'What one can control, by obtaining more telescopic measurements, is determining with certainty whether you have a hit or miss. After all, at the end of the day, an object either hits or misses. The answer is deterministic.' Key updates expected in 2028 Astronomers expect a clearer picture in 2028, when asteroid 2024 YR4 will once again come into view. Until then, the current probability of a lunar impact remains at 4%. 'Now we wait. There is, as of right now, about a 4% chance of asteroid YR4 hitting the moon, and we probably won't get this number updated until the asteroid returns to visibility in 2028,' Wiegert said, as quoted by Space(dot)com. 'At that point, we should know pretty quickly whether or not it will in fact hit the moon. The whole event would be exciting to watch in binoculars or a small telescope.' As per the Space(dot)com report, the study has been submitted to journals of the American Astronomical Society, with a preprint available on the online repository arXiv.
New York Post
19-06-2025
- Science
- New York Post
‘City-killer' asteroid hurtling toward moon — this is the terrifying way it could wreak havoc on Earth
Our world could still be rocked indirectly. 'City-killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 may no longer be on a collision course with Earth, but it could pose a threat to our planet. Astronomers have upped the odds that the cosmic boulder will crash into the moon, which could potentially cause a cloud of shrapnel to impact Earth-orbiting satellites and other spacecraft, according to a scary new study submitted to the American Astronomy Society Journals. 'We were a little bit surprised at the possibility of there being a substantial amount of material [aimed] at the Earth,' Dr. Paul Wiegert, an astronomy professor at the University of Western Ontario who helmed the research, told the New Scientist. 3 Still from an animation showing asteroid 2024 YR4 as it passes by Earth and heads toward its potential impact with the Moon. NOIRLab/NSF/AURA/R. Proctor / SWNS Wiegart illustrated these potential outcomes in a series of scary video simulations showing the potential fallout from a lunar crash-landing. First discovered on December 27 of last year, YR4 sparked worldwide concern that it could strike our planet on December 23, 2032, potentially generating enough power to destroy an entire city. At its peak on February 19, YR4 had an impact risk factor of 3.1%, making it one of the most dangerous asteroids on record. And while follow-up observations revealed that YR4 wouldn't hit home, the odds of it striking the Moon recently jumped from 3.8% to 4.3%, according to data by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) by NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies. 3 'We were a little bit surprised at the possibility of there being a substantial amount of material [aimed] at the Earth,' said Dr. Paul Wiegert. NOIRLab/NSF/AURA/R. Proctor / SWNS Wiegert estimated that the asteroid would hit the Moon at 29,000 mph, creating a blast crater 0.6 miles wide, making it the largest lunar impact in the last 5,000 years. If it strikes just right, our planet's gravity would funnel up to 10% of the resultant debris toward our planet, per the simulations. 'Intuitively, the Earth is actually quite a small target when seen from the moon, and so your intuition is that not very much material would actually hit the Earth, but it turns out that the Earth's gravity can focus that material under certain conditions,' warned Wiegert. This debris field wouldn't threaten the planet itself, but could still have dire consequences for satellites in low orbit. By simulating the shrapnel cloud's potential trajectory 10,000 times, the team discovered that the satellites could sustain a decade's worth of damage in just a few days. 3 Artist's impression of the James Webb Telescope. NASA / SWNS While this barrage might not be enough to take out the satellites entirely, even impacts from small debris particles could potentially impact their functionality. 'If they were to hit a bit of a spacecraft that was a coolant pipe, or a sensor on the spacecraft exposed to space, or an antenna, then suddenly you get a loss of that particular functionality,' warned Mark Burchell, a space science lecturer at the University of Kent, UK 'You can't go and fix a satellite. A minor problem is actually a serious problem.' Satellites wouldn't be the only spacecraft potentially in the line of fire. Wiegert warned that the shrapnel cloud could affect the operations of Moon-orbiting spacecraft such as NASA's proposed Lunar Gateway while material displaced by the collision could potentially fall back to the Moon, impeding, rovers and even jeopardizing astronauts with the Artemis program. Based on this model, Wiegert believes global space agencies should devise plans to deflect asteroids headed for the Moon, as well as Earth. A spokesperson from NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office said that while 'planetary defense is not solely confined to near-Earth space,' it would be 'premature to speculate on potential response options' to 2024 YR4 hitting the moon. Wiegert said that we will be able to refine our models on YR4's orbital trajectory when it hurtles back into view of Earth's telescopes in 2028.
Time of India
01-06-2025
- Science
- Time of India
‘Gold arrived on our planet as Earth was forming 4.5 billion years ago — it holds an extraordinary history'
Jun Korenaga Jun Korenaga is Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Yale University . He tells Srijana Mitra Das at TE about how gold got to Earth: It's a little surprising to connect to Jun Korenaga , not least because the scientist is sitting against the backdrop of a planetary surface that could be — but doesn't have to be — Mars. Speaking with purple rock and feathery clouds in a sunless sky behind him, Korenaga explains the origins of gold — and Earth. 'My work focuses on estimating early Earth's history. In the last few years, I've worked on the Hadean Eon which was about 4.5 billion years ago — this is the most mysterious part of our planet's history because we don't have a rock record for it. I work on the theoretical side and try to reconstruct what early Earth looked like.' Gold is part of early Earth's story, although in unexpected ways. A symbol of stability now, gold had quite a dramatic past. Supernovae or cataclysmic stellar explosions and star collisions occurred in the universe. The extreme pressure of such imploding stars was so high, subatomic protons and electrons got pushed into their core — these formed neutrons. Rapid neutron capture by iron then created heavy elements like uranium, lead, silver and gold. Interestingly, this process occurred very, very swiftly — and then, these elements were expelled into space. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like News For Jack Nicholson, 87, He Has Been Confirmed To Be... Reportingly Undo (Photos: Getty images) Thus, metals like gold and platinum arrived on Earth while our planet was still forming. Korenaga explains, 'About 4.5 billion years ago, Earth was hit by a Mars-sized rock and the moon formed as the debris from this collision went into an Earth-orbiting disk. More bombardment followed — there were plenty of leftover rocks orbiting the sun as well and several fell on young Earth. The landing of these objects is known as 'late accretion', comprising about the last 1% of planetary growth. In this period, some of the rocks which fell on Earth had metallic components like gold.' Importantly, gold and platinum are among highly siderophile elements (HSEs) — these are metals with an extremely strong affinity for iron. Korenaga smiles slightly and says, 'Now, if Earth was created with no funny twists in its story, we actually wouldn't have any gold on our planet's surface because, sticking to iron, this was heavy and should have gone straight down into the core which we cannot access. But we do have gold on the surface, which shows that part of Earth's mantle can retain metallic components.' Korenaga's research, conducted with Simone Marchi , posits the notion that there is a thin or 'transient' part of the mantle where shallow areas melt away and a deeper region stays solid. This part could hold falling metallic components and reach them to the mantle. In the simulations the scientists conducted, as a rock crashed onto Earth, it hit a localised liquid magma ocean where heavy metals sank to the bottom. As these reached the partially molten area underneath, the metal would start sinking further down — then, the molten mantle solidified, capturing the metal there. But how did this re-emerge to the part of Earth's surface humans could access? As Korenaga says, 'The part of the mantle which contains this metallic component is heavier and more chemically dense than the rest — to bring it up, you have to offset that density by being hotter than normal as hotter materials usually have lower density. Thus, thermal currents from Earth's core outweighed that compositional density and made these materials move up from the solid mantle to Earth's surface.' This process is called 'mantle convection', when hot mantle material rises as colder material sinks. Earth's mantle is almost totally solid — yet, over long geologic periods, it acts like a pliable material which can mix and move things within it. Those include the HSEs — like gold — which came to Earth from massive collisions billions of years ago and then reached the planet's surface through these enormous, yet intricate internal processes. Is gold found on other planets as well? Korenaga says, 'Gold is found on the moon — but its abundance there is much lower than on Earth. It is found on Mars too. Of course, we don't have direct samples from Mars but we have so-called Martian meteorites. These are found on Earth but because of their isotopic features, they are traced back to Mars. Analysing these rocks shows us the presence of highly siderophile elements there — again though, the abundance of these, like gold and platinum, is much lower than on Earth.' Do siderophiles contain a larger story of the formation of our solar system — and universe? Korenaga comments, 'We understand planetary formation in terms of silicate rocks and iron which makes up most of the core. Iron is a major element while silicate rocks are made of silicon, oxygen, magnesium, iron, etc. Highly siderophile elements exist in very small abundances — their presence by itself doesn't drive any major planetary formation processes but they stick with iron and by measuring such trace elements, we can study more details of planetary formation.' These abundances thus help us decipher the paths planets once took. The Golden Moon: This too has gold on it THE GOLDEN MOON: This too has gold on it Given its incredible history — arriving on Earth 4.5 billion years ago, seeping deep into its mantle, pushed to the top by extraordinary forces operating from within our planet — how should we think of gold the next time we see it? Korenaga replies, 'Gold is, of course, widely available as jewellery and other items from shops but when we look at it, we should actually think about its extraordinary origins — we shouldn't take gold for granted. Its presence helps us understand crucial details of the very existence of this metallic Earth and the formation of its unique atmosphere which is 78% nitrogen and 21% oxygen — why did our planet develop in this way? A simple everyday item like gold can hold big answers to that.' Korenaga concludes by remarking, 'Of course, my work explains why Earth's mantle has some amount of gold or platinum at the surface level but for humans to access pure gold, you need a concentrated form in a mine,' He adds, with a scientist's exactness, 'It is extremely inefficient otherwise to extract gold from rocks — but to understand the formation of gold mines, you need deeper knowledge about very local processes. And that is another story.'
