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First Post
a day ago
- Science
- First Post
Govt panel says megaquake may hit Japan within next 30 years
Japan's Earthquake Research Committee warned the quake can occur in any of the 23 active faults and fault zones spanning at least 20 kilometres in the Sea of Japan read more Japan's Noto Peninsula was shaken by a massive 7.5 earthquake on January 1 last year A Japanese government panel has predicted that there is a 16 to 18 per cent likelihood of central Japan getting hit by a megaquake within the next 30 years. The Earthquake Research Committee announced Friday (June 27) that active faults off Kinki western region and Hokuriku central region were projected to trigger a quake of magnitude 7 or higher. The quake can occur in any of the 23 active faults and fault zones spanning at least 20 kilometres in the Sea of Japan, the panel said. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The likelihood of a magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake occurring along the western nine faults, primarily off the northern coast of the Kinki region, is estimated at 4 to 6 per cent. For the eastern 14 faults, including those off the Noto Peninsula, the probability is higher, ranging from 12 to 14 per cent. 'About 10% in the next 30 years is a high figure, signaling that (a large earthquake) could happen while we are alive,' University of Tokyo professor emeritus Naoshi Hirata, who heads the committee, was quoted as saying by Japan Times. 'We hope people will take measures such as making homes earthquake-resistant and securing furniture.' The fault zone north of the Noto Peninsula, the epicentre of the 2024 earthquake, has a near-zero percent chance of triggering a major quake in the next 30 years. Conversely, a fault and segments of a fault zone west of the peninsula are deemed the most likely among 23 sites to cause a significant quake, with probabilities of 1 to 2 per cent each. 'An earthquake like that of last year may not occur in a fault zone on the northern coast of the Noto Peninsula for a while, but it's quite possible that such a quake will occur in another area,' Hirata said. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Notably, Japan's Noto Peninsula was shaken by a massive 7.5 earthquake on January 1 last year as the world celebrated the arrival of the New Year. Hirata urged the government to prepare for potential tremors and tsunamis at a scale on par with previous earthquakes. The panel also provided long-term evaluations and data on expected seismic intensity for quakes across the 23 faults. A quake in a fault off the coast of Fukui Prefecture is projected to reach a lower 6 on the Japanese seismic scale, the third-highest level, in parts of Fukui City.
Japan Times
a day ago
- Science
- Japan Times
Megaquake may hit central Japan within next 30 years, government panel says
Marine active faults off Japan's Kinki western region and Hokuriku central region are projected to trigger an earthquake with a magnitude of 7 or larger at a probability of 16% to 18% within the next 30 years, according to a government panel. The government's Earthquake Research Committee calculated the probability of such a temblor occurring in any of the 23 active faults and fault zones spanning at least 20 kilometers in the Sea of Japan, it announced Friday. Following the massive Noto Peninsula earthquake in central Japan in January 2024, the committee released information on the locations and lengths of the marine active faults, as well as the estimated magnitudes of possible quakes from them, in August 2024. The probability of a quake with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occurring in the western nine faults, mainly off the northern coast of the Kinki region, stood at 4% to 6%, while that for the eastern 14 faults, including off the Noto Peninsula, came to 12% to 14%. "About 10% in the next 30 years is a high figure, signaling that (a large earthquake) could happen while we are alive," said University of Tokyo professor emeritus Naoshi Hirata, who heads the committee. "We hope people will take measures such as making homes earthquake-resistant and securing furniture." A fault zone to the north of the Noto Peninsula was projected to have nearly zero percent probability of causing a large quake in the next three decades, as it was the hypocenter of the 2024 earthquake. Meanwhile, a fault and parts of a fault zone to the west of the peninsula were assessed as being most likely to cause a large quake among the 23 sites, at 1% to 2% each. "An earthquake like that of last year may not occur in a fault zone on the northern coast of the Noto Peninsula for a while, but it's quite possible that such a quake will occur in another area," Hirata said. He stressed the need to prepare for possible tremors and tsunamis at a scale on par with last year's temblor. The committee newly recognized a fault off the coast of Toyama Prefecture, central Japan, as an active one, finding a 0.9% to 1% likelihood of causing an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.0. It will assess three faults off the coast of Niigata Prefecture, central Japan, next time, due to geological differences with other faults. Along with the long-term evaluations, the panel also released data on expected seismic intensity from quakes in the 23 faults. It said that a quake in a fault off the coast of Fukui Prefecture, central Japan, is seen registering lower 6, the third highest, on the Japanese seismic scale in some areas of Fukui's capital city of the same name. Meanwhile, a quake in a fault off Ishikawa Prefecture is projected to measure lower 6 in some areas of the prefectural capital of Kanazawa.
2 days ago
- Science
16-18 Pct Chance of Mega Quake Predicted off Central Japan
News from Japan Society Jun 27, 2025 20:35 (JST) Tokyo, June 27 (Jiji Press)--Marine active faults off Japan's Kinki western region and Hokuriku central region are projected to trigger an earthquake with a magnitude of 7 or larger at a probability of 16 pct to 18 pct within the next 30 years, a government panel said Friday. The government's Earthquake Research Committee calculated the probability of such a temblor occurring in any of the 23 active faults and fault zones spanning at least 20 kilometers in the Sea of Japan. Following the massive Noto Peninsula earthquake in central Japan in January 2024, the committee released information on the locations and lengths of the marine active faults, as well as the estimated magnitudes of possible quakes from them, in August 2024. The probability of a quake with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occurring in the western nine faults, mainly off the northern coast of the Kinki region, stood at 4 pct to 6 pct, while that for the eastern 14 faults, including off the Noto Peninsula, came to 12 pct to 14 pct. "About 10 pct in the next 30 years is a high figure, signaling that (a large earthquake) could happen while we are alive," said University of Tokyo professor emeritus Naoshi Hirata, who heads the committee. "We hope people will take measures such as making homes earthquake-resistant and securing furniture." [Copyright The Jiji Press, Ltd.] Jiji Press
Asahi Shimbun
26-04-2025
- Asahi Shimbun
Quake rumor in Hong Kong puts flight bookings to Japan at risk
A rumor circulating in Hong Kong that a huge earthquake and tsunami will hit Japan this summer led to such a sharp drop in flight bookings that one airline was forced to reduce its services to Japan. The impact of the hearsay prompted the Cabinet Office in Tokyo to post the following to its official X account on the evening of April 24: 'It is difficult from current scientific knowledge to predict earthquakes by specifying the time and location.' An official in the section that handles disaster management said the move was in response to several 'prophecies' that sprung up after a forecast by the Japanese government's Earthquake Research Committee of around an '80 percent chance' of a megaquake hitting a wide area of Japan's Pacific coastline within the next 30 years. The death toll from such a Nankai Trough earthquake with a magnitude of 8 or 9 was put at 298,000. Fears that Japan would face a disaster comparable to the one that devastated northeastern Japan in 2011 apparently spread in Hong Kong through social media by those who had read or heard about separate prophecies by a famed local feng shui master and a Japanese manga artist. Around mid-May, Hong Kong-based Greater Bay Airlines decided to suspend one roundtrip flight a week on two routes linking Hong Kong with Sendai in the Tohoku region and Tokushima in Shikoku in central Japan. The airline noticed in late February that reservations for late March and April were not increasing as they had in past years, which was strange because bookings are traditionally in demand for cherry blossom viewing in Japan as well as the Easter holiday in Hong Kong. 'We expected around 80 percent of the seats to be taken, but actual reservations came to only 40 percent,' said Hiroki Ito, the general manager of the airline's Japan office. Demand for the Tokushima flights also decreased sharply, apparently due to the rumors. One trigger for the drop in flight reservations was apparently due to a manga published in 2021 by Ryo Tatsuki titled 'Watashi ga Mita Mirai, Kanzenban' (The future that I saw, complete edition). The strip cartoon, which became a best-seller, featured dialogue about a major natural disaster striking Japan in July 2025. Ito said many Hong Kongers are superstitious and believed in the 'prophecy,' with the result that flights bookings dropped off sharply. However, Greater Bay Airlines has no plans to reduce the number of flights from Hong Kong to Narita and Kansai airports. Japan Airlines and All Nippon Airways, which operate similar flight routes, said there was no noticeable decrease in reservations on their flights. The Japan National Tourism Organization's Hong Kong office said it was aware of the rumor making the rounds in Hong Kong, China and Taiwan of an impending major earthquake in Japan. An official said the office is still collecting information to confirm reports about prospective visitors to Japan cancelling their plans. Miyagi Governor Yoshihiro Murai told an April 23 news conference, 'It would be a major problem if the spread of non-scientific rumors on social media had an effect on tourism.' He added, 'There is no reason to worry because Japanese are not fleeing abroad. I hope people will ignore the rumors and visit.' Hiromichi Nakamori, a professor of natural disaster information studies at Nihon University in Tokyo, noted it was easy for such rumors to spread in Japan and elsewhere because the frequency of quakes in Japan produces a subliminal worry. He added that the six students from China who he supervises had all read or heard rumors over social media that an earthquake would strike Japan on July 5. Based on past research, Nakamori said that rumors often come in cycles after a famous prognosticator or fortune teller gets quoted as having said something of interest, even if it is made up, resulting in a vicious cycle Social media simply makes the spread of rumors easier and faster. (This article was written by Shoko Rikimaru, Ikuko Abe, Ryo Oyama, Koki Furuhata and Shiori Tabuchi.)
