Latest news with #Ebury
Irish Times
17-07-2025
- Business
- Irish Times
Irish exports climb to €134.4bn as US pharma sales surge
Ireland exported goods with a total value of €134.4 billion in the first five months of the year, an increase of almost 50 per cent on the same period last year, as companies rushed to send goods to the US to get out ahead of tariffs. The Central Statistics Office (CSO) said on Thursday that the value of exports of pharmaceutical and medicinal goods climbed by almost three-quarters to €13.7 billion in the five months to the end of May compared with last year. The sector, which is dominated in the Republic by multinational companies, has been bracing itself for impact from US President Donald Trump's trade policy. Although the White House has so far declined to place tariffs on pharmaceutical imports to the US, Mr Trump said this week that he was likely to impose levies as soon as the end of the month. In anticipation of those duties, pharmaceutical companies have been stockpiling goods in the US. READ MORE Jane Burmanje, statistician in the CSO's international trade in goods division, said the overall increase in Irish exports has largely been driven by ballooning exports to the US. 'Year to date, January to May 2025 exports of goods to the US increased by 153 per cent (€42.8 billion) to €70.8 billion compared with the same period last year (€28 billion),' Ms Burmanje said. [ Trump says tariffs on pharma and computer chip are likely by August 1st Opens in new window ] Robert Purdue, head of dealing at global financial services firm Ebury, said the threat of 'punitive tariffs' has driven a 'rush to accelerate shipments' to the US. 'It suggests 2025 will be a year of two halves with an artificial spike in H1 likely to be followed by a slump as exporters re-stock and take stock of the new global trade environment,' he said. David McWilliams on how 'big incentives' to build could save Dublin city Listen | 36:51 'New threats of significant tariffs on pharmaceutical products will be hugely concerning for the economy given the critical role this sector plays in Ireland.' Mr Trump told reporters on Tuesday that the White House could introduce tariffs on pharmaceutical goods simultaneously with the introduction of 10 per cent levies on a range of goods next month. 'Probably at the end of the month, and we're going to start off with a low tariff and give the pharmaceutical companies a year or so to build, and then we're going to make it a very high tariff,' he said.
CNBC
16-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
CNBC Daily Open: U.S. inflation meets expectations, but that's not necessarily good
Expectations are a funny thing. When we say that something meets expectations, we tend to mean it in a positive way, suggesting that a hurdle has been cleared or the result is welcome. But what happens when we expect something bad, and the outcome meets expectations? The U.S. consumer price index in June, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Tuesday, matched the Dow Jones consensus estimate. And there was even a pleasant surprise: Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% on the month, which was 0.1 percentage points below expectations. That said, both the headline and core inflation numbers, on an annual basis, hit their highest since February. "The latest U.S. inflation report practically confirmed that President Trump's tariffs acted to push up consumer prices in June," said Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at global financial services firm Ebury. Hence, while the inflation figures didn't surprise market watchers and investors — markets really dislike unpredictability — the fact that the downbeat expectations were realized still weighed on stocks, which mostly fell on the news. As yesterday's market movements illustrate — and as many of us, after going through performance reviews with our supervisors, know — sometimes, meeting expectations isn't good enough. A preliminary U.S.-Indonesia deal. U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that under the trade agreement, U.S. exports from Indonesia will face a 19% tariff, while American goods will enter the Southeast Asian country tariff-free. Jakarta has yet to confirm the deal. Inflation in the U.S. reaccelerated in June. The consumer price index rose 0.3% on the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.7%. While those numbers are in line with expectations, the annual rate is the highest since February and above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The Nasdaq Composite bucks the trend. A 4% jump in Nvidia boosted the tech-heavy index to a record close, even as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated Tuesday. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index fell 0.37%. Big banks beat earnings expectations. JPMorgan Chase and Citibank on Tuesday reported second-quarter results that beat estimates for earnings per share and revenue. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the bank will get involved in stablecoins. [PRO] Fund managers are bullish on European stocks. A Bank of America survey of European fund managers found that 81% of respondents saw upside for the region's equities in the coming 12 months. Trump-backed crypto regulation bills fail to clear key hurdle in Congress Several cryptocurrency regulation bills backed by Trump failed to clear a key procedural hurdle Tuesday in the House of Representatives, dealing a major blow to the crypto industry. The measures had been widely expected to pass. The failure of the rule during what is being billed as "Crypto Week" was a rare instance of House Republicans refusing to take direction from Trump.
RTÉ News
02-07-2025
- Business
- RTÉ News
Weaker US dollar creates additional hurdle for exporters
The US dollar has continued to weaken against the euro this week, presenting extra challenges for exporting firms. Having strengthened in the immediate aftermath of Donald Trump's election victory last year, the dollar has steadily slipped against the euro since the start of 2025. Compared to mid-January, the euro is currently up almost 15% against the US currency. "There's been a number of factors contributing to it but a lot of it has to do with the presidency of Donald Trump," said Roman Ziruck, senior market analyst at Ebury. "Markets are concerned with the trade issues - we see that the US has moved on to a trade protectionism path and this is something that is casting shadows on its economic prospects," he said. "Also markets have been relatively concerned with the US fiscal situation - the US has been running significant fiscal deficits in recent years, even though its economic activity has been rather strong. So it's quite uncharactaristic of the period. And the One Big, Beautiful Bill, which passed the Senate just yesterday, is promising to increase the US debt in the coming years," he added. Markets are also uneasy about attempts by the US President to influence central bank policy - through his criticism of their interest rate stance, and indications that he is considering a change in the Federal Reserve's leadership. "This is something that we have not really witnessed in developed economies in recent years," said Mr Ziruck. "This is something that we are more likely to see in emerging markets - but even in those places it's not particularly common." With a deadline on US-EU trade talks looming, and suggestions that a 10% tariff will become the "new normal" for firms, a weaker dollar presents an extra level of pressure on exporting firms. "It's another hurdle," he said. "The EU is an exporting economy - it's going to be an issue, it's something that is leading to a deterioration in the economic prospects in the near term. But longer-term prospects are helped by [Germany's] fiscal stimulus." The weaker dollar may offer some relief to consumers in certain areas, though, not least those that are travelling to the US in the coming weeks. Given that oil is priced in dollars, it also presents a potential benefit there too - especially as global oil prices have fallen back from their recent highs in the wake of attacks between Israel and Iran. "We have seen a significant reversal in the oil futures and right now we are back to levels where we were before the onset of the Israel-Iran conflict," said Mr Ziruck. "If we price that in euros, that certainly is a factor that should be contributing to a slightly calmer price environment in the euro zone," he added.
Daily Mail
23-06-2025
- Business
- Daily Mail
Global markets gyrate as Iran fights back: Oil spikes higher and sterling falls to a five-week low
Investors are braced for days of turmoil as conflict in the Middle East rattles global markets. Oil spiked higher and sterling fell to a five-week low against the US dollar early yesterday as the world awaited Tehran's response to the US bombing of Iran's nuclear sites. But crude gave up its gains – dropping from above $81 a barrel to around $76 later in the session – while the pound rose back towards $1.35, having earlier slipped as low as $1.3371. The initial sell-off in the pound came as nervous investors piled into the relative safety of the greenback. European stock markets drifted slightly lower, with the FTSE 100 down 0.2 per cent in London, the DAX 0.4 per cent lower in Frankfurt and the CAC falling 0.7 per cent in Paris. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones rose 0.6 per cent and the S&P 500 was up 0.7 per cent. The mood was calmer than many feared, even as Donald Trump warned of 'regime change' in Iran and Tehran targeted US bases in Qatar and Iraq. 'It's at times like these that investors must wish they had some kind of crystal ball,' said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould. Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at Ebury, said that while market moves 'have been relatively contained', investors remain 'on edge'. He added: 'All eyes are on the extent of the retaliation from Iran, whether through further missile and drone strikes on Israel or a blockade of the strait of Hormuz. Investors appear to be clinging on to hopes of de-escalation. 'At this stage, markets are in the dark as to where we go from here. 'An escalation would be greeted with another bout of risk aversion, as investors would price in rising geopolitical uncertainty, higher oil prices and possible supply-chain disruption. 'The US dollar would remain well placed in this environment.' Analysts at Morgan Stanley noted that market sell-offs caused by geopolitical events are often brief. 'History suggests most geopolitically-led sell-offs are short-lived/modest,' strategist Michael Wilson wrote. 'Oil prices will determine whether volatility persists.'
Irish Examiner
18-06-2025
- Business
- Irish Examiner
Irish SMEs braced for costs to rise amid ongoing trade uncertainty
Nearly three quarters of Irish SMEs are bracing for costs to rise amid global trade uncertainty, while one in three businesses expect their imports and exports to fall, new research predicts. The research based on a study of 300 senior finance decision makers at SMEs in Ireland found that sentiment among Irish SMEs has taken a hit since the onset of tariffs, with 40% of firms reporting a deterioration in business confidence. The trading sentiment tracker by global financial services firm Ebury reported that 72% of SMEs expect their business costs to increase in the next 12 months as a consequence of US tariffs, with these businesses predicting an average 22% uptick in costs. Only 16% of exporting firms expected exports to increase, while just 13% expected imports to grow. When asked what the biggest fears were, the SMEs pointed to tariffs and trade barriers (31%), currency fluctuations (23%), geopolitical risks (23%), supply chain disruptions (19%), and increased operational costs (18%). 'Our data shows that global trade tensions are clearly weighing on sentiment and trading activity. Despite a recent deescalation in the trade war, many SMEs remain uneasy, not just about tariffs but also the wider volatility in currency markets and heightened geopolitical tension,' said Ebury head of dealing in Ireland, Robert Purdue. Since the announcement of tariffs, SMEs have responded in different ways with nearly a fifth (18%) of those surveyed diversifying trading partners, 16% changing suppliers, 15% shouldering additional costs while 12% have frozen hiring and 9% have laid off staff. However, over a quarter (26%) say they haven't taken any steps since the announcement, despite the uncertainty and the expectation of greater costs. US president Donald Trump has threatened to impose 50% tariffs on imports from the EU if an agreement is not reached by July 9. On Tuesday, Mr Trump said the EU are "either going to make a good deal or they'll just pay whatever we say they have to pay" as negotiations continue. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said the talks were "complex but we are advancing". The EU's total exports to the United States last year totalled about €500bn, with Ireland exporting €72bn.
