Latest news with #EconomicData
Yahoo
18-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Homebuilding Down, Jobless Claims Up; Fed News Later
Wednesday, June 18, 2025Pre-market futures are holding onto early morning gains, but are lower than they were before this morning's economic data began hitting the tape. Dow futures are now +10 points, the S&P 500 is +5 and the Nasdaq +30 points. These are down from 40, 10 and 50 points, we prepare to honor our Juneteenth holiday Thursday with closed banks and stock markets, we see Weekly Jobless Claims pulled a day earlier to this morning. Initial Jobless Claims came in-line with expectations at 245K, 5000 lower than the upwardly revised 250K the prior week, which is the highest level since a one-week blip of 259K back in October of last trailing four-week average in new claims is now 245K — again, directly in-line with today's result and its expectation. The previous four weeks averaged just over 231K, so we can see these numbers creeping up. This has been anticipated by analysts ever since big layoffs at corporations and the federal government began during the first quarter of Claims, reported a week in arrears from initial claims, came in at 1.945 million for two weeks ago. This makes the fourth-straight week longer-term jobless claims have notched above 1.9 million. (There is nothing inherently meaningful in 1.9 million continuing claims other than its proximity to 2 million, by the way.) U.S. Housing Starts for May posted its lowest tally since May 2020 — the heart of the Covid pandemic: 1.256 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units fell nearly -10% month over month from the upwardly revised 1.392 million for April, and far lower than the 1.35 million analysts had anticipated. Building Permits were also below expectations, reaching 1.393 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units in May from 1.42 million estimated (which was the upward revision to the prior month). This again is the lowest print in five years, and demonstrates a cooling housing market continuing to find its way through the current high-mortgage-rate homes were flat month over month, -7% year over year. Multi-family took a -30% hit month over month, off a record number of new builds over the past few years. Permits for multi-family were +13% year over year. The housing market sees strong demand for rentals continuing, which should keep multi-family projects in the lead over single-family. We expect this to continue until mortgage rates start to come down meaningfully. The 'big news' today will be the announcement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell following. There won't be any rate cut today, but we do expect a new 'dot plot' from the Fed, which will tip their hand regarding how many rate cuts the FOMC currently expects to deliver this year, and when they might will be the fourth of eight total FOMC meetings this year: the next will be July, but as per tradition, the Fed will skip August. Odds for a September cut are notably higher, although this might be a matter of economists pushing out their hockey sticks a bit. (You'll recall earlier this year that this June meeting was the latest analysts had expected a first rate cut to occur. But a resilient economy combined with a murky tariff outlook have kept those rate cuts at bay.)Questions or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>> Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Invesco QQQ (QQQ): ETF Research Reports SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): ETF Research Reports SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA): ETF Research Reports This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research
Yahoo
18-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Jobless Claims Tick in Per Expectations
Pre-market futures are holding onto early morning gains, but are lower than they were before this morning's economic data began hitting the tape. Dow futures are now +10 points, the S&P 500 is +5 and the Nasdaq +30 points. These are down from 40, 10 and 50 points, respectively. As we prepare to honor our Juneteenth holiday Thursday with closed banks and stock markets, we see Weekly Jobless Claims pulled a day earlier to this morning. Initial Jobless Claims came in-line with expectations at 245K, 5000 lower than the upwardly revised 250K the prior week, which is the highest level since a one-week blip of 259K back in October of last year. The trailing four-week average in new claims is now 245K — again, directly in-line with today's result and its expectation. The previous four weeks averaged just over 231K, so we can see these numbers creeping up. This has been anticipated by analysts ever since big layoffs at corporations and the federal government began during the first quarter of 2025. Continuing Claims, reported a week in arrears from initial claims, came in at 1.945 million for two weeks ago. This makes the fourth-straight week longer-term jobless claims have notched above 1.9 million. (There is nothing inherently meaningful in 1.9 million continuing claims other than its proximity to 2 million, by the way.) U.S. Housing Starts for May posted its lowest tally since May 2020 — the heart of the Covid pandemic: 1.256 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units fell nearly -10% month over month from the upwardly revised 1.392 million for April, and far lower than the 1.35 million analysts had anticipated. Building Permits were also below expectations, reaching 1.393 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units in May from 1.42 million estimated (which was the upward revision to the prior month). This again is the lowest print in five years, and demonstrates a cooling housing market continuing to find its way through the current high-mortgage-rate economy. Single-family homes were flat month over month, -7% year over year. Multi-family took a -30% hit month over month, off a record number of new builds over the past few years. Permits for multi-family were +13% year over year. The housing market sees strong demand for rentals continuing, which should keep multi-family projects in the lead over single-family. We expect this to continue until mortgage rates start to come down meaningfully. The 'big news' today will be the announcement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell following. There won't be any rate cut today, but we do expect a new 'dot plot' from the Fed, which will tip their hand regarding how many rate cuts the FOMC currently expects to deliver this year, and when they might start. This will be the fourth of eight total FOMC meetings this year: the next will be July, but as per tradition, the Fed will skip August. Odds for a September cut are notably higher, although this might be a matter of economists pushing out their hockey sticks a bit. (You'll recall earlier this year that this June meeting was the latest analysts had expected a first rate cut to occur. But a resilient economy combined with a murky tariff outlook have kept those rate cuts at bay.) Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
17-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Retail Sales Comes in Significantly Lower Than Expected
This morning, we see some important economic data hitting the tape. Pre-market futures are lower, but in fairness, they were lower before these reports came out. The Dow is currently giving back -180 points of its gains made yesterday, with the S&P 500 down -20 points and the Nasdaq -90. Bond yields are lower, but only slightly: the 10-year is +4.41%, the 2-year +3.94% and the 30-year yield is +4.92%. Headline Retail Sales for last month was expected to swing to a negative print, but not this far: -0.9% is the lowest we've seen since January, and below the -0.6% consensus. The prior month swung from +0.1% originally reported to -0.1% on today's revision. Auto Parts fell -3.5% for May, followed by -2.7% in Building Materials. Conversely, Sporting Goods grew +1.3% and Furniture +1.2%. Removing big-ticket auto sales, this number ebbs to -0.3% — still worse than the +0.1% analysts were expecting. This follows a 0.0% print for April, which ticked down 10 basis points (bps) from +0.1% initially reported. Ex-autos & gas, -0.1% is what we see — a big swing from the +0.3% anticipated. The Control number, which finds its way up the food chain of other inflation metrics (such as next week's PCE figures), was the sole bright spot here: +0.4%, up from April's downwardly revised -0.1%. Keep in mind there is plenty here reflecting the tariff realities in U.S. retail. For instance, headline month-over-month Retail Sales blossomed up +1.7%, in expectation of complications regarding tariffs President Trump had been promising. Thus, there is a 'pull-forward' in effect with these May numbers; over time, we'll be able to see more clearly how retailers are able to successfully price goods. Import Prices were unched for May: 0.0% versus expectations of -0.1% but down from the unrevised +0.1% from April. Still, this is an improvement from the -0.4% posted in March. Ex-fuel costs, +0.2% is the number — half what was posted a month ago, which incidentally was the highest figure registered since April of last year. Export Prices, on the other hand, sank -0.9% last month — the worst print in over two years. Year over year, we see U.S. exports +1.7%, the lightest read of the year and 80 bps lower than the +2.5% analysts had been looking for. Again, we see a new global trade narrative emerging, though unfortunately for us it's taking a big bite out of export pricing. We don't see these lower numbers as enough to tip the scales in terms of the Fed deciding to cut interest rates at this time. As we say, we strongly suspect much of these aberrations are tariff-related; once the Fed has some clarity on global trade, it will have more confidence to adjust rates to both control inflation and foster full employment. The Fed's official decision comes out Wednesday early afternoon, along with a statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and a press conference with Chair Jerome Powell directly following. Currently, odds are sub-50% for a Fed cut until September, with a growing number of analysts now conceding there may be no rate cuts in 2025 at all. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
17-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Retail Sales, Imports/Exports Reflect Tariff Realities
Tuesday, June 17, 2025This morning, we see some important economic data hitting the tape. Pre-market futures are lower, but in fairness, they were lower before these reports came out. The Dow is currently giving back -180 points of its gains made yesterday, with the S&P 500 down -20 points and the Nasdaq -90. Bond yields are lower, but only slightly: the 10-year is +4.41%, the 2-year +3.94% and the 30-year yield is +4.92%. Headline Retail Sales for last month was expected to swing to a negative print, but not this far: -0.9% is the lowest we've seen since January, and below the -0.6% consensus. The prior month swung from +0.1% originally reported to -0.1% on today's revision. Auto Parts fell -3.5% for May, followed by -2.7% in Building Materials. Conversely, Sporting Goods grew +1.3% and Furniture +1.2%.Removing big-ticket auto sales, this number ebbs to -0.3% — still worse than the +0.1% analysts were expecting. This follows a 0.0% print for April, which ticked down 10 basis points (bps) from +0.1% initially reported. Ex-autos & gas, -0.1% is what we see — a big swing from the +0.3% anticipated. The Control number, which finds its way up the food chain of other inflation metrics (such as next week's PCE figures), was the sole bright spot here: +0.4%, up from April's downwardly revised -0.1%.Keep in mind there is plenty here reflecting the tariff realities in U.S. retail. For instance, headline month-over-month Retail Sales blossomed up +1.7%, in expectation of complications regarding tariffs President Trump had been promising. Thus, there is a 'pull-forward' in effect with these May numbers; over time, we'll be able to see more clearly how retailers are able to successfully price goods. Import Prices were unched for May: 0.0% versus expectations of -0.1% but down from the unrevised +0.1% from April. Still, this is an improvement from the -0.4% posted in March. Ex-fuel costs, +0.2% is the number — half what was posted a month ago, which incidentally was the highest figure registered since April of last Prices, on the other hand, sank -0.9% last month — the worst print in over two years. Year over year, we see U.S. exports +1.7%, the lightest read of the year and 80 bps lower than the +2.5% analysts had been looking for. Again, we see a new global trade narrative emerging, though unfortunately for us it's taking a big bite out of export pricing. We don't see these lower numbers as enough to tip the scales in terms of the Fed deciding to cut interest rates at this time. As we say, we strongly suspect much of these aberrations are tariff-related; once the Fed has some clarity on global trade, it will have more confidence to adjust rates to both control inflation and foster full Fed's official decision comes out Wednesday early afternoon, along with a statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and a press conference with Chair Jerome Powell directly following. Currently, odds are sub-50% for a Fed cut until September, with a growing number of analysts now conceding there may be no rate cuts in 2025 at or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>> Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Invesco QQQ (QQQ): ETF Research Reports SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): ETF Research Reports SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA): ETF Research Reports This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Reuters
16-06-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Gulf markets rebound amid Israel-Iran conflict
June 16 (Reuters) - Stock markets in the Gulf ended higher on Monday, recovering some of their losses from previous sessions when they were jolted by the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab advanced 1.3%, led by a 1.5% rise in Al Rajhi Bank ( opens new tab and a 6.9% jump in ACWA Power Company ( opens new tab. The upward trend mirrored similar movements in both Asian and European markets, where a temporary improvement in sentiment was bolstering investor appetite, said Osama Al Saifi, Managing Director for MENA at Traze. "This optimism was partly fuelled by positive economic data from China, which showed an acceleration in retail sales despite U.S. tariffs," he said. Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI), opens new tab added 0.8%, with utility firm Dubai Electricity and Water Authority ( opens new tab rising 2.2%. Iranian missiles struck Israel's Tel Aviv and the port city of Haifa before dawn on Monday, destroying homes and fuelling concerns among world leaders at this week's G7 meeting that the confrontation could lead to a broader regional conflict. Israel said it had targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders on Friday at the start of what it warned would be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building a nuclear weapon. Iran, which says its nuclear programme is for civilian use, has promised a harsh response. Iran said its parliament was preparing a bill to leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), adding that Tehran remains opposed to developing weapons of mass destruction. Passing the bill could take several weeks. In Abu Dhabi, the index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab finished 0.2% higher. Oil prices - a catalyst for the Gulf's financial markets - edged down, paring back Friday's 7% surge, as renewed military strikes by Israel and Iran over the weekend left oil production and export facilities unaffected. The Qatari benchmark (.QSI), opens new tab climbed 1.7%, a day after falling more than 3%, buoyed by a 2.5% leap in the Gulf's biggest lender Qatar National Bank ( opens new tab. Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab inched 0.1% higher, helped by a 1.4% rise in Commercial International Bank ( opens new tab. On Sunday, the index fell 4.6% marking its biggest intraday fall in about 14 months.
