Latest news with #EconomicForecast
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Existing Home Sales Forecast Revised Lower in Latest Outlook
WASHINGTON, June 23, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Existing single-family home sales are forecast at 4.14 million units for 2025, down slightly from last month's forecast of 4.24 million units, according to the June 2025 Economic and Housing Outlook from the Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. Revisions to the home sales forecast were driven in part by the ESR Group's higher expectations for mortgage rates, which are now predicted to end 2025 and 2026 at 6.5% and 6.1%, respectively. The latest outlook also projects real gross domestic product growing at 1.4% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026 on a Q4/Q4 basis. Visit the Economic and Strategic Research site at to read the full June 2025 Economic and Housing Outlook, including the Economic Developments Commentary, Economic Forecast, and Housing Forecast. To receive email updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, please click here. Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management. About the ESR GroupFannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Mark Palim, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lenders to inform forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets. Follow Fannie Fannie Mae Newsroomhttps:// Photo of Fannie Maehttps:// Fannie Mae Resource Center1-800-2FANNIE View original content to download multimedia: SOURCE Fannie Mae Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
20-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Global Economic Outlook: US, Europe Grow More Slowly Than Expected Amid Trade, Geopolitical Tensions
Scope Ratings (Scope) has revised its forecast for US growth to 1.8% this year from a previous forecast of 2.7% last October (Table 1), while forecasting growth of 1.8% in 2026. US output rose 2.8% last year. The European rating agency's forecast is for global growth to slow to 3.0% in 2025 from 3.3% in 2024 before continuing at a moderate rate of 3.1% next year. Download Scope Ratings' mid-year 2025 Economic Outlook. Medium-term macro risks remain negatively skewed. Scope projects that interest rates will remain above the pre-pandemic levels amid structurally higher inflation. The cut to US growth forecasts for this year comes amid trade uncertainties and cuts in government spending by the Department of Government Efficiency. As regards Germany, Scope forecasts no growth this year compared with a forecast last October of 0.9% – the economy contracted 0.2% in 2024 – but sees output in Europe's largest economy expanding by 1.2% next year. Germany's sluggish performance this year will drag euro-area growth to a less-than-expected 1.1%, 0.5pps below Scope Ratings' former forecast, before a slight rebound in 2026 to 1.5%. Spain and economies of the euro-area periphery – such as Greece, Ireland, Portugal – continue to outperform the rest of the euro area. Spain's forecast growth this year of 2.5%, revised up by 0.3pps, contrasts with France's of 0.7%, cut 0.6pps, and Italy's of 0.6%, revised down by 0.4pps. Table 1: Scope Ratings' growth forecasts, summary %, projections as of 20 June 2025 Scope expects stronger growth in Europe in 2026 as defence spending rises and governments implement measures to increase investment. Looking ahead, Scope sees four adverse factors weighing on the outlook for the global economy and global credit. First, there are the on-again, off-again escalations and de-escalations of trade tensions posing recessionary risks for the global economy. Secondly, threats are increasing for financial stability amplified by the latest wave of financial deregulation spear headed by the United States. Another factor is the budgetary challenges that governments face, triggering more frequent market re-appraisals of sovereign debt risks. Finally, there are heightened geopolitical risks, not least Russia's continuing war in Ukraine and the recent escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran. The rating agency assumes higher steady-state borrowing rates than the rates that prevailed before the cost-of-living crisis. Many central banks have paused rate reductions, even if the Federal Reserve and Bank of England may resume them later this year whereas the Bank of Japan is gradually increasing rates. Sustained higher borrowing rates and elevated financial-market valuations amid financial deregulation threaten corrections and present risks for financial stability and global credit conditions. Presentation: Scope's 2025 mid-year economic and credit outlook Data: Scope's mid-year 2025 economic projections For a look at all of today's economic events, check out our economic calendar. Dennis Shen is the Chair of the Macro Economic Council and Lead Global Economist of Scope Group. The rating agency's Macroeconomic Council brings together the company's credit opinions from multiple issuer classes: sovereign and public sector, financial institutions, corporates, structured finance and project finance. This article was originally posted on FX Empire From Tariffs to Tags: The Price Hike Reality for US Shoppers (Part 1) Bulgaria Poised to Join the Euro: An Interview with Scope Ratings' Dennis Shen Big Money Lifts Disney 1,427% Since First Outlier Buy Royal Caribbean Seeing Inflows Ulta Beauty Sales Growth Attracts Inflows Rare Bullish Inflow Signals Cause IMAX to Nearly Double
Yahoo
20-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Local businesses report feeling positive about upcoming operations
BINGHAMTON, N.Y. (WIVT/WBGH) – Local businesses largely feel optimistic about the year ahead according to a recent survey of companies. The Greater Binghamton Chamber held its annual Economic Forecast breakfast and Building BC awards presentation Wednesday morning at the Holiday Inn in Binghamton. In its survey, the Chamber says 84 percent of respondents expected their business to grow this coming year, while 15 percent expected to stay the same. None indicated that they would contract. This year's Transformative Award went to Spark JC, owners and renovators of the Oakdale Commons. The Matthews and Newman families who operate Spark JC say they're not only saving what was a dying mall, they're making it better than ever. 'We live here, and we saw the demise of the Oakdale Mall, now known as Oakdale Commons. So, to see the transformation means a lot to us. And we're here every single day, seeing it just like everyone else is. So, very proud,' said Marc Newman. The Restorative Award went to Station 45 American Chop House on Lewis Street in Binghamton. Owner and developer Mark Yonaty took the aging and deteriorating Lackawanna Train Station and brought it back to its former grandeur, outfitting the restaurant with period appropriate fixtures and decor. Yonaty says despite the challenges and delays of COVID-related supply chain issues and government red tape, the result was worth the wait. 'It's a meaningful project. All four of my uncles left from that train station for World War II. There's a lot of meaning in that building. The fact that we rehabilitated a building that was once scheduled to be demolished by the City of Binghamton in the 90's, so it's a great feeling,' said Yonaty. The Legacy Recognition award went to Bates Troy. The business has been in the Kradjian family since the early 1940's. While many are familiar with its dry-cleaning services, the majority of its business today is in health care linens. It's currently headed up by third generation president Brian Kradjian. General Manager Joseph Liparulo says Brian and Bates Troy do a lot for the community, from supporting coat drives to employing people with disabilities. 'He contributes to everything in the county, in the city. He's been around, his father before him, and his uncle and grandfather before him. Almost 100 years in the area. So, he does a lot for the community. It means a lot to the employees because we all know about it,' said Liparulo. The Chamber's survey also found that 40 percent of local businesses feel more optimistic about the future, 21 percent are more pessimistic while 37 percent say their outlook hasn't changed. Local businesses report feeling positive about upcoming operations Binghamton bar scene grows as The Vibe Lounge opens its doors Patocka's Gastropub closes in Greene Hundreds gather to mourn fallen Binghamton Firefighter What is the HALT Act? The talking point law that's part of the correction officer strike, explained Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
09-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
'Ring the alarm': Chamber focuses on jobs crisis at home amid cloudy economic outlook
Despite projections, no one knows exactly how the economy will respond to possible tariffs, inflation and policy changes targeting immigration and fiscal impacts this year, a top federal economist said Friday. David Altig didn't make bold predictions at the 2025 Economic Forecast presented by the Tallahassee Chamber of Commerce. Instead, he said expect this year to be much like 2024, "but less." "A little bit less growth, a little bit less employment, a little less inflation, but still pretty good," said Altig, executive vice president and chief economic adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, to a crowd of approximately 250 executives, community leaders and others. "Near as I can tell from the information we get from people like you," he said, "everyone is sort of in the same camp." And, he continued, everyone is waiting to see how various factors play out. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta serves the Sixth Federal Reserve District, which encompasses Alabama, Florida, Georgia, sections of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee, according to its website. It's part of the nation's central banking system and plays a role in "setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous commercial banks, and provides a variety of financial services to depository institutions and the US government." Past and present Tallahassee Chamber officials said they heard Altig's message of uncertainty loud and clear while others said it's time to "ring the alarm" on Tallahassee's lackluster job creation. Sha'Ron James, who chairs the Greater Tallahassee Chamber of Commerce Board of Directors, said businesses shouldn't pursue solutions for potential problems if there are still "missing pieces" creating a fog of uncertainty at the federal level on down to the local level. "So we take it one day at a time, and we hope for the best," James said. She also pointed to Altig's comments about the importance of building a strong workforce, something she said the Chamber has prioritized for several years. "We'll continue to do that and really align workforce development and skills with those industries that he talked about, that are transformative in terms of wages," James said. "It mirrored a lot of what we've been saying for a while." As of data released Jan. 24, Leon County has lost 904 jobs since last year and has a job growth rate of 0.6%, according to Florida's Department of Economic Opportunity. The jobs outlook is illustrated in a county-specific scorecard provided by the Florida Chamber, which compiles economic scorecards using various indicators for all 67 counties in the state. Terrie Ard said Leon County was facing a jobs crisis when she served as chairwoman of the Tallahassee Chamber's Board of Directors in 2023. Based on the recent data released on Leon County's scorecard, Ard said, "it's even more so." Ard said Leon County's job creation record in the last year should be "a five alarm for our community." She said efforts are needed to double down on retaining talent in Tallahassee, along with ramping up recruitment efforts and overall workforce development solutions "that will help to turn this around." "We have not had growth, and over the last year, every month, the number of jobs have declined," Ard said. "We added Amazon, which was a huge win for this community. And, even with Amazon, we still have lost about nearly 1,000 jobs." Last month, Leon County's scorecard said the capital has a year-over-year loss of more than 700 jobs, which was included in the Tallahassee Democrat's coverage of the Chamber's Annual Breakfast meeting. Several days after the breakfast, Office of Economic Vitality (OEV) Director Keith Bowers wrote an opinion piece describing Tallahassee's economy as "fostering economic growth has yielded significant results for our community." "Over the past five years, the Tallahassee-Leon County metro area has achieved remarkable success in job creation, adding more than 18,000 new jobs added — 97% of which were in the private sector," he wrote. He said OEV 80 different data indicators from various sources, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), to track economic trends and employment patterns. He said, over the past year, Tallahassee-Leon County achieved a 1.7% increase in job growth, outpacing the statewide growth rate of 1.5%. Altig compared the current state of the economy as a "puzzle with missing pieces," adding "There is no way to put it together at all ... It's just sort of where we're at." Some of the missing pieces include: productivity, inflation, fiscal policy, immigration and tariffs. Yet, he did share some statistics that, for example, debt held by the public is slated to rise each year. From 2025 to 2035, it swells from 100% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 118% —an amount greater than at any point in the nation's history. "I'll just let you absorb that for a second," Altig said. As for inflation, Altig said year-over-year inflation has come down based on data released in December. "But if you look at the last six months, the progress has sort of stopped. It's sort of flatlined. That's not what we were hoping for," he said. When talking about immigration impacts, Altig said there were five main industries that may see the largest direct impacts: agriculture, construction, personal services, leisure and hospitality and manufacturing. He said there approximately seven to eight million "unexpected visitors" across the country from 2021 to 2024, resulting in two consequences. Immigration was built in as a "revenue gain to the federal government" and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) historically "observed that revenue collected from immigration exceeded expenditures associated with immigration," Altig said. On the flip side, it had the opposite effect at the state and local level. "That's where the services are coming from; from an influx of integration," he said. "This has revenue implications, and, importantly, has a lot of labor market implications." Contact Economic Development Reporter TaMaryn Waters at tlwaters@ and follow @TaMarynWaters on X. This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Tallahassee Chamber Economic Forecast: Cloudy with a jobs crisis
