Latest news with #EdYardeni
Time of India
2 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
Markets betting on economic strength, not trade deals: Ed Yardeni
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads "But the stock market has concluded that maybe the US economy is resilient enough to withstand all the volatility and uncertainty that is coming out of Washington on tariffs . And maybe the same thing seems to apply to the to the global economy," says Ed Yardeni , Yardeni it very much looks as though the President Trump is aiming now at a 15% base tariff. For a while there it looked like he was satisfied with 10% and then would negotiate whether there would be any additional tariffs depending on the conditions that were open or close to American goods in various countries. But now it looks like he wants 15%.The reason for that is he needs it to help raise revenues to help to reduce the federal deficit. At the end of the day that tariff is going to wind up being a tax probably mostly at American businesses and American consumers and to a certain extent I presume that foreign exporters will be leaned on by their American customers to try to help to a certain extent. But all in all, he is getting kind of what he wants. It will probably be 15% base rate with the EU and then we will see whether the EU opens up. It is hard to imagine that they will because they have been relatively closed for quite some times because a lot of special interest groups that do not want to have easy competition for foreign the markets have priced in a fairly optimistic scenario. It is quite a radical change from what the thinking was in the markets back in March, April, and maybe even early May. But really ever since the president backed off or postponed his Liberation Day tariffs on April 2nd, he announced them on April 9th, he postponed them. And now we have got a hard deadline of August 1st. And we are getting some deals, but we certainly did not get 90 deals in 90 days, that that did not happen. And some of these deals that we have so far look more like frameworks than the stock market has concluded that maybe the US economy is resilient enough to withstand all the volatility and uncertainty that is coming out of Washington on tariffs. And maybe the same thing seems to apply to the to the global in all, the global economy has held up pretty well despite all the turmoil about tariffs. This does not look like Smoot-Hawley, the 1930s tariff that brought the global economy down and maybe that is because economies are stronger. They are more services oriented. Tariffs are usually put on goods, not on services. But when you put it all together, the stock markets around the world, but particularly in the United States, are discounting what I have been calling since the beginning of the decade the roaring 2020s. There is a lot of focus on technological innovation and how that is going to increase us face it, there is a lot of excitement about artificial intelligence everywhere around the world. Everybody wants to suddenly build these data centres. Some of that is going to turn out to be hype. Some of that may turn out to be leading to overcapacity. But for now, it is happy days are here I have been very focused on overweighting the US since 2010, and it has worked out really-really well. Not earlier this year, but now it looks as though maybe the US again looks like it is winning relative to other countries. Look, it is not that hard to underweight the United States and overweight the rest of the world because the United States accounts for 70% of the market capitalisation of stock markets around the if you feel uncomfortable with that and you want to only put 65% in and therefore overweight the rest of the world that is fine if you can find the opportunities and there are opportunities including India, of course, which has already done remarkably well. But all in all, we are looking at a situation where investors are getting a little bit excited here, maybe too excited, but I am looking for bull-bear ratios to get to the point where there is just too many bulls. We are not quite there yet, but we could get there very I think that sentiment certainly improved overnight in Japan. We saw those stocks doing very well. On the other hand, GM has been hurt by to the tune of a billion dollars by Trump's tariffs. And we have yet to really see these tariffs settle in. There is still uncertainty about exactly what they are going to be, but that uncertainty will be gone presumably within a couple of weeks, we will know exactly what the tariffs are. And the auto industry is still going to be challenged. I look at it as a long-term issue. The real long-term issue for autos is we are going to have autonomous are going to have cars that drive themselves and then the question is, what is the point of owning a car if you can get access to cars that will take you anywhere any time of the day, what is the point of having your own car parked in the parking lot of your work and or in the garage at night? On the other hand, if you want to make some money, you can buy a car and make autonomous taxi out of it. So, there is a lot of challenges here, but we may not need as many cars as we have out there if we can all just use an app to call a car.
Economic Times
2 hours ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Markets betting on economic strength, not trade deals: Ed Yardeni
"But the stock market has concluded that maybe the US economy is resilient enough to withstand all the volatility and uncertainty that is coming out of Washington on tariffs. And maybe the same thing seems to apply to the to the global economy," says Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research. ADVERTISEMENT What are you making of the speculation that the street has right now with the US-EU deal? The number is being pegged at 15%. What could that look like? Ed Yardeni: Yes, it very much looks as though the President Trump is aiming now at a 15% base tariff. For a while there it looked like he was satisfied with 10% and then would negotiate whether there would be any additional tariffs depending on the conditions that were open or close to American goods in various countries. But now it looks like he wants 15%. The reason for that is he needs it to help raise revenues to help to reduce the federal deficit. At the end of the day that tariff is going to wind up being a tax probably mostly at American businesses and American consumers and to a certain extent I presume that foreign exporters will be leaned on by their American customers to try to help to a certain extent. But all in all, he is getting kind of what he wants. It will probably be 15% base rate with the EU and then we will see whether the EU opens up. It is hard to imagine that they will because they have been relatively closed for quite some times because a lot of special interest groups that do not want to have easy competition for foreign companies. I am just wondering how does one read into the reaction of the equity markets? I mean, I can see that the VIX is compressing quite sharply. You have got the dollar index which is completely stabilised now. Do you think the markets have much priced in all the tariff negotiations so far? Ed Yardeni: Well, the markets have priced in a fairly optimistic scenario. It is quite a radical change from what the thinking was in the markets back in March, April, and maybe even early May. But really ever since the president backed off or postponed his Liberation Day tariffs on April 2nd, he announced them on April 9th, he postponed them. And now we have got a hard deadline of August 1st. And we are getting some deals, but we certainly did not get 90 deals in 90 days, that that did not happen. And some of these deals that we have so far look more like frameworks than not. But the stock market has concluded that maybe the US economy is resilient enough to withstand all the volatility and uncertainty that is coming out of Washington on tariffs. And maybe the same thing seems to apply to the to the global economy. ADVERTISEMENT All in all, the global economy has held up pretty well despite all the turmoil about tariffs. This does not look like Smoot-Hawley, the 1930s tariff that brought the global economy down and maybe that is because economies are stronger. They are more services oriented. Tariffs are usually put on goods, not on services. But when you put it all together, the stock markets around the world, but particularly in the United States, are discounting what I have been calling since the beginning of the decade the roaring 2020s. There is a lot of focus on technological innovation and how that is going to increase productivity. Let us face it, there is a lot of excitement about artificial intelligence everywhere around the world. Everybody wants to suddenly build these data centres. Some of that is going to turn out to be hype. Some of that may turn out to be leading to overcapacity. But for now, it is happy days are here again. ADVERTISEMENT So, what does that indicate about which way money is going to move in? And do you think it continues to be US first and then emerging markets or is there a tactical shift there? Ed Yardeni: Well, I have been very focused on overweighting the US since 2010, and it has worked out really-really well. Not earlier this year, but now it looks as though maybe the US again looks like it is winning relative to other countries. Look, it is not that hard to underweight the United States and overweight the rest of the world because the United States accounts for 70% of the market capitalisation of stock markets around the world. So if you feel uncomfortable with that and you want to only put 65% in and therefore overweight the rest of the world that is fine if you can find the opportunities and there are opportunities including India, of course, which has already done remarkably well. But all in all, we are looking at a situation where investors are getting a little bit excited here, maybe too excited, but I am looking for bull-bear ratios to get to the point where there is just too many bulls. We are not quite there yet, but we could get there very quickly. ADVERTISEMENT How do you assess the current sentiment shaping up for the global auto sector as a whole because we just had the earnings from Tesla, which was once again a miss, this whole US and Japan deal that is through, that bodes well for the Japanese auto sector. And now, there is a chatter of that US-EU deal as well. How do you see the sentiment for the global auto sector as of now? Ed Yardeni: Well, I think that sentiment certainly improved overnight in Japan. We saw those stocks doing very well. On the other hand, GM has been hurt by to the tune of a billion dollars by Trump's tariffs. And we have yet to really see these tariffs settle in. There is still uncertainty about exactly what they are going to be, but that uncertainty will be gone presumably within a couple of weeks, we will know exactly what the tariffs are. And the auto industry is still going to be challenged. I look at it as a long-term issue. The real long-term issue for autos is we are going to have autonomous cars. We are going to have cars that drive themselves and then the question is, what is the point of owning a car if you can get access to cars that will take you anywhere any time of the day, what is the point of having your own car parked in the parking lot of your work and or in the garage at night? On the other hand, if you want to make some money, you can buy a car and make autonomous taxi out of it. So, there is a lot of challenges here, but we may not need as many cars as we have out there if we can all just use an app to call a car.
Time of India
15-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Tariff situation isn't going to last for many more months as Trump can't afford a recession: Ed Yardeni
Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research views the proposed 30% EU tax as a repeat of earlier tariff threats. It is almost like Liberation Day 2, after Trump declaring April 2 as Liberation Day after announcing a bunch of tariffs across all the trading partners. Despite market calmness due to perceived negotiation tactics, the ongoing trade war negatively impacts the global and US economies. Trump's frustration with trade deals and potential tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, like India and China, add to the complexity. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Discover Effortless Glucose Monitoring: Request a Free Trial Dexcom Click Here Undo What is your view on the 30% US tariff announcement on the EU? Is this a number you were expecting because the Street was largely pencilling in around 20%, and 30% has slightly shocked the European markets given the move we have seen on Friday. What is your take on the 30% tariff? Ed Yardeni: This almost seems like Liberation Day 2. Liberation Day 1 was on April 2nd when the President introduced a whole bunch of tariffs on all the trading partners around the world. And then he pushed the deadline out to July 9th. A few days ago, he announced that the new deadline is August 1st. And then he went back and threw all of these tariffs at various countries. So, we are kind of where we were when we started with the April 2nd Liberation Day tariffs. Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track default , selected Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. The markets seem to be much calmer about it because the perception is that the president changes his mind, and that the President is negotiating. It is not a very pretty thing to watch, but hopefully this thing will be resolved by the end of this summer and that's what the markets are anticipating. How do you believe that the markets will digest this over the course of the period because for now, this seems to be much calmer but we have all witnessed what happened back in April and May not just in the US markets but even the Emerging Markets were reacting to that. Do you believe that as and when the impact of these tariffs on the global economy are digested, the markets will react in a negative way? Ed Yardeni : Well, sure. If there continues to be a re-escalation of the trade war, it is a negative for the global economy. It is a negative for the US economy, and it is a negative for global stock markets. But the perception is that we are still very much in a negotiation phase. The president is somewhat frustrated that he could not get his 90 deals in 90 days, that is what Peter Navarro , his trade advisor was touting as a possible scenario. But so far, there have only been two deals and there is still plenty being discussed. So, it is a very fluid situation. Live Events You Might Also Like: Trump patience on tariffs runs thin as nations jostle for deals On top of all that, Trump said that on Monday he is going to be announcing what he is going to do about Russia. He is not happy with Russia's response to his attempts to create a ceasefire with Ukraine. And there is some talk about him imposing some pretty severe tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil. Obviously, that applies to India and China. So, it is all getting quite messy and confusing. But the markets have learned to cope with it and the markets are betting, and I agree with the view that this is not going to last for many more months. Trump really cannot afford to have a recession later this year going into next year when the mid-term election next November could very well cost him and the Republicans very thin majorities in both houses of Congress. So, the market is right that this issue will pass and that he will move on to other things like campaigning for Republican candidates for the mid-term congressional elections. Where do you think this number could stabilise going ahead because the April tariff on EU was 25%, right now it is 30%. This largely seems like a negotiating tactic. Do you believe it could come back to 25% or go to even 20%. Is that a possibility you are pencilling in right now? Ed Yardeni: It is very hard to make a conclusion based on what Trump says because he says a lot of things and they are not always the same. They can change day after day. Right now, he has suggested that even that 10% base tariff that everybody is supposed to pay might be raised to 15% to 20%. He is obviously very happy with the amount of revenues that are coming in as a result of the 10% tariff. The risk is that he becomes a little bit too aggressive in his perception of how much money tariffs can raise without fully realising the extent of trade frictions it creates, exacerbating a trade war which is not good for anybody. You Might Also Like: China the big winner as Trump slaps massive copper tariffs to crush Canada How are you tracking the cues that we are getting from gold as well as the dollar index because gold is once again seeing a bit of a surge? Do you believe that more is yet to come and along with that, what is your take on the dollar index? Ed Yardeni: I have been bullish on gold ever since it rose above 2000. It looked like an important breakout towards new highs. We have been making new highs. We are over $3300 per ounce now. I have been bullish on gold to fundamentally because the foreign central banks of countries that we do not get along with, that do not like us, do not like our way of doing things, and have decided to buy a lot of gold ever since Russia invaded Ukraine and we froze the assets of the of the Russians. So, there has been a lot of demand from central banks. But then, there was the geopolitical situation, the trade war, and all these things have benefited gold. The flip side is that it has been a negative for the dollar. But I am not that negative from here. The dollar is down 10% so far this year and that is about it. There is still a lot of demand for dollars from foreigners who continue to do a lot of business here as well as recognise that our capital markets are still the most liquid, probably safest capital markets in the world. Maybe if you want to be really safe, you go to Switzerland but that is a fairly limited currency.
CNBC
14-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
We'll get 'surprisingly strong' bank results, setting the stage for a strong season, says Ed Yardeni
Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss his expectations for this week's big bank earnings, June CPI data, and more.
BBC News
11-07-2025
- Business
- BBC News
Markets 'betting' tariffs resolve by fall
Investment analyst Ed Yardeni says the markets' muted reaction to Trump's tariff letters are 'not an under-reaction' as they are betting on the fact that he will not want to cause a recession before the US midterms.
