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Economic Times
17-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Trideep Bhattacharya on where he sees value and sectors that may see outperformance in future
Trideep Bhattacharya, Chief Investment Officer-Equities, Edelweiss MF, says India's consumption is expected to rebound in the second half of FY26. Factors like easing inflation, strong monsoons, and salary hikes will boost rural demand. Government spending on infrastructure, defence, and railways is also set to rise. IT services are a tactical bet due to reasonable expectations and improving macro a trade deal with US materializes by early July, IT services and chemicals are poised for relative outperformance. A low-probability, high-tariff scenario could severely impact the US and global economic growth, though markets aren't currently pricing in this risk. ADVERTISEMENT The way macroeconomics is shaping up, if you look at the global headwinds, whether it is in terms of the geopolitical tensions or the rising crude, how do you see India vis-à-vis the rest of the world because as far as India is concerned, the good part has been priced in. In the near term, do you see some bit of consolidation happening and going forward, how do you see the Indian markets play out? Trideep Bhattacharya: There are two or three parts to your question. First of all, amidst global volatility overall, when you look at the maximum amount of volatility or uncertainty, it was the beginning of the year when we did not know how India is going to be affected, what Trump's plans would have been, and also earnings were weak. ETMarkets Smart Talk | 2H2025 market returns may moderate, but India's long-term story intact: Abhiram Eleswarapu So, from that perspective, at the moment the macros are a little less volatile than where they were and the market rise seems to factor that in. But as you rightly pointed out, the markets have rallied close to September 24 highs and one of our hypotheses on the markets is that earnings-wise we would probably see earnings come back in the second half of FY26. So, over the next few months, markets being very close to September 24 highs, we would expect a bit of time correction in the markets to happen given that markets are in and around fair value. With regards to India, on a relative basis, we score quite well relative to other emerging market nations and also globally because A) our growth is the strongest and B) the texture of the growth is more domestic dependent than export dependent in circumstances where almost all the global economies are looking to find, to make in their own country a version of whatever goods and services they can and put tariffs on others. This particular growth metric where growth is driven by domestic earnings scores quite well and hence relatively, we would continue to be favourites of FIIs over a period of time, like we have seen since the beginning of this year. In terms of your sector preferences, oil and gas is one space where you are not very bullish in terms of your allocations as well. But oil is the biggest talking point right now with respect to what has been happening with Iran and Israel. Back home in terms of stock preferences, how do you see the space evolving? Yes, oil is giving jitters in the short term. How do you see the movement in the oil impacting various sectors and within the oil and gas space, there are subsegments as well. Are you bullish on any particular theme if at all? Trideep Bhattacharya: At the end of the day, from the beginning of this year till now, crude oil has come down from $85 to hit a bottom of $65 and now we are hovering between around $70. Net-net, so far, oil has corrected and that is positive for India economy on a net-net basis. Yes, recently we have seen a bit of a spike, but I would call that rise as being more in the range of $65-75 is where I would expect to remain. ADVERTISEMENT On the outside, if it touches or crosses $90 per barrel, I would be worried. But the chances of that happening are fairly limited given that there would be shale gas and also OPEC production coming to rescue. Second, we are a big importer of oil as an economy, and in that context, oil prices going up can cause a little of volatility but as long as it is within the range of $65-75, we do not see it as too much of a concern from a fundamental standpoint. Third, in the context of where we are placed within oil, we are more positive upstream over the last couple of months since the oil price has corrected quite meaningfully to $65 and that has helped us during this period of oil price rise. But net-net, compared to other sectors, we would bet on that part of the economy which uses oil as an input and churns out output because quite a few of the incentives being doled out either by the macro conditions or by the government act in their favour like consumption. So, we would be betting on the other side. But within oil and gas as a sector, we would rely on stock selection to carry us through. ADVERTISEMENT Talk to us about the other pockets where you see value. The common consensus, of course, is in favour of the financial, especially the NBFC space and as I can see, you are positive on NBFCs as well. But besides that ,talk to us about the sectors where you see value. Trideep Bhattacharya: If I were to look at two or three things which have happened in the context of India which are genuinely positive and play out over the back half of this year, one is basically a resumption of consumption based recovery and there certainly we do see pockets where a rebound is imminent. Very clearly one is crude oil and we discussed it at length as to the implications of the same. But secondly, inflation as you were talking earlier in the show, has come off quite meaningfully by 100 basis points and more that certainly is a boost for the rural economy. Also, monsoons being 6% higher than long period average also will act as a boom for rural consumption. ADVERTISEMENT Finally, in the budget, the honourable finance minister effectively gave a salary hike of 5% to 7% which will play out this festive season and onwards. Net-net, if you look at all the catalysts that are lined up in front of us, I would say consumption as a sector would see quite a few things going for them as we go toward the second half of FY26. The second theme that we like in the context of current times is resumption of government spending. Almost one-and-a-half years we spent where hardly any economic decision-making really happened. But since the beginning of this year, we have seen a meaningful amount of contracts being signed and more likely to come through in the areas of infrastructure, defence, railways, and the likes of it, which will play out in the form of earnings as we start from the second half of FY26 onwards. So, these are two themes which would carry on the earnings battle in the second half of FY26 which is what we are positive on. Those would be the sectors that are good to go. The third area is IT services. It is more tactical in nature, more because expectations are very reasonable at the moment. While earnings will be a little bit languishing, a year from now, earnings outlook will start to look better and macro conditions will ease out. So, these three are the areas that we are betting on in our portfolios. ADVERTISEMENT But other than that, apart from earnings, the other biggest talking point is what will happen to the trade talks and where is India placed with respect to the negotiations that are already underway? Is it time to once again look out for some of those globally linked sectors like pharma, chemical, or some of the other sectors where India has good exposure? Trideep Bhattacharya: IT services and chemicals would be two such pockets where from a near-term perspective we would be relatively more positive assuming a deal gets done. Now, in all honesty, in what shape and form the deal will get done is unknowable. But what we know is that business conditions tend to take precedence particularly in an economy like that of the US and we would probably have the first contours of a deal as we head towards the first deadline which is July 1st week. Assuming that happens, the two sectors that we like would probably kind of do better than others on a relative basis. I would also like to point out the other side which is a low probability event, but in case the tariff situation is kind of really the area where US kind of wants to implement high tariffs for the rest of the globe, then the biggest impact would be negatively on United States and globally we would be staring at fairly dire conditions from an economic growth standpoint towards the second half of this year. However, that is a three-sigma event that is a risk which I do not think at the moment markets are factoring in. At the same time, it is a low probability event and hopefully better sense prevails in the first week of July and that is what we are hoping for. We are bracing up for some sort of volatility in and around that date to see this through. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
17-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Trideep Bhattacharya on where he sees value and sectors that may see outperformance in future
Trideep Bhattacharya , Chief Investment Officer-Equities, Edelweiss MF , says India's consumption is expected to rebound in the second half of FY26. Factors like easing inflation, strong monsoons, and salary hikes will boost rural demand. Government spending on infrastructure, defence, and railways is also set to rise. IT services are a tactical bet due to reasonable expectations and improving macro conditions. Assuming a trade deal with US materializes by early July, IT services and chemicals are poised for relative outperformance. A low-probability, high-tariff scenario could severely impact the US and global economic growth, though markets aren't currently pricing in this risk. The way macroeconomics is shaping up, if you look at the global headwinds, whether it is in terms of the geopolitical tensions or the rising crude, how do you see India vis-à-vis the rest of the world because as far as India is concerned, the good part has been priced in. In the near term, do you see some bit of consolidation happening and going forward, how do you see the Indian markets play out? Trideep Bhattacharya : There are two or three parts to your question. First of all, amidst global volatility overall, when you look at the maximum amount of volatility or uncertainty, it was the beginning of the year when we did not know how India is going to be affected, what Trump's plans would have been, and also earnings were weak. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Here Are The New Kitchen Trends In 2025 (Click Here To Watch) Kitchen Remodeling | Search Ads Search Now Undo So, from that perspective, at the moment the macros are a little less volatile than where they were and the market rise seems to factor that in. But as you rightly pointed out, the markets have rallied close to September 24 highs and one of our hypotheses on the markets is that earnings-wise we would probably see earnings come back in the second half of FY26. So, over the next few months, markets being very close to September 24 highs, we would expect a bit of time correction in the markets to happen given that markets are in and around fair value. With regards to India, on a relative basis, we score quite well relative to other emerging market nations and also globally because A) our growth is the strongest and B) the texture of the growth is more domestic dependent than export dependent in circumstances where almost all the global economies are looking to find, to make in their own country a version of whatever goods and services they can and put tariffs on others. This particular growth metric where growth is driven by domestic earnings scores quite well and hence relatively, we would continue to be favourites of FIIs over a period of time, like we have seen since the beginning of this year. Live Events You Might Also Like: Good news getting priced in faster, narrow range consolidation likely in medium term: Siddharth Vora In terms of your sector preferences, oil and gas is one space where you are not very bullish in terms of your allocations as well. But oil is the biggest talking point right now with respect to what has been happening with Iran and Israel. Back home in terms of stock preferences, how do you see the space evolving? Yes, oil is giving jitters in the short term. How do you see the movement in the oil impacting various sectors and within the oil and gas space, there are subsegments as well. Are you bullish on any particular theme if at all? Trideep Bhattacharya: At the end of the day, from the beginning of this year till now, crude oil has come down from $85 to hit a bottom of $65 and now we are hovering between around $70. Net-net, so far, oil has corrected and that is positive for India economy on a net-net basis. Yes, recently we have seen a bit of a spike, but I would call that rise as being more in the range of $65-75 is where I would expect to remain. On the outside, if it touches or crosses $90 per barrel, I would be worried. But the chances of that happening are fairly limited given that there would be shale gas and also OPEC production coming to rescue. Second, we are a big importer of oil as an economy, and in that context, oil prices going up can cause a little of volatility but as long as it is within the range of $65-75, we do not see it as too much of a concern from a fundamental standpoint. Third, in the context of where we are placed within oil, we are more positive upstream over the last couple of months since the oil price has corrected quite meaningfully to $65 and that has helped us during this period of oil price rise. But net-net, compared to other sectors, we would bet on that part of the economy which uses oil as an input and churns out output because quite a few of the incentives being doled out either by the macro conditions or by the government act in their favour like consumption. So, we would be betting on the other side. But within oil and gas as a sector, we would rely on stock selection to carry us through. Talk to us about the other pockets where you see value. The common consensus, of course, is in favour of the financial, especially the NBFC space and as I can see, you are positive on NBFCs as well. But besides that ,talk to us about the sectors where you see value. Trideep Bhattacharya: If I were to look at two or three things which have happened in the context of India which are genuinely positive and play out over the back half of this year, one is basically a resumption of consumption based recovery and there certainly we do see pockets where a rebound is imminent. You Might Also Like: ETMarkets Smart Talk | 2H2025 market returns may moderate, but India's long-term story intact: Abhiram Eleswarapu Very clearly one is crude oil and we discussed it at length as to the implications of the same. But secondly, inflation as you were talking earlier in the show, has come off quite meaningfully by 100 basis points and more that certainly is a boost for the rural economy. Also, monsoons being 6% higher than long period average also will act as a boom for rural consumption. Finally, in the budget, the honourable finance minister effectively gave a salary hike of 5% to 7% which will play out this festive season and onwards. Net-net, if you look at all the catalysts that are lined up in front of us, I would say consumption as a sector would see quite a few things going for them as we go toward the second half of FY26. The second theme that we like in the context of current times is resumption of government spending. Almost one-and-a-half years we spent where hardly any economic decision-making really happened. But since the beginning of this year, we have seen a meaningful amount of contracts being signed and more likely to come through in the areas of infrastructure, defence, railways, and the likes of it, which will play out in the form of earnings as we start from the second half of FY26 onwards. So, these are two themes which would carry on the earnings battle in the second half of FY26 which is what we are positive on. Those would be the sectors that are good to go. The third area is IT services. It is more tactical in nature, more because expectations are very reasonable at the moment. While earnings will be a little bit languishing, a year from now, earnings outlook will start to look better and macro conditions will ease out. So, these three are the areas that we are betting on in our portfolios. You Might Also Like: Oil stocks in focus as escalating Israel-Iran conflict fuels supply disruption fears But other than that, apart from earnings, the other biggest talking point is what will happen to the trade talks and where is India placed with respect to the negotiations that are already underway? Is it time to once again look out for some of those globally linked sectors like pharma, chemical, or some of the other sectors where India has good exposure? Trideep Bhattacharya: IT services and chemicals would be two such pockets where from a near-term perspective we would be relatively more positive assuming a deal gets done. Now, in all honesty, in what shape and form the deal will get done is unknowable. But what we know is that business conditions tend to take precedence particularly in an economy like that of the US and we would probably have the first contours of a deal as we head towards the first deadline which is July 1st week. Assuming that happens, the two sectors that we like would probably kind of do better than others on a relative basis. I would also like to point out the other side which is a low probability event, but in case the tariff situation is kind of really the area where US kind of wants to implement high tariffs for the rest of the globe, then the biggest impact would be negatively on United States and globally we would be staring at fairly dire conditions from an economic growth standpoint towards the second half of this year. However, that is a three-sigma event that is a risk which I do not think at the moment markets are factoring in. At the same time, it is a low probability event and hopefully better sense prevails in the first week of July and that is what we are hoping for. We are bracing up for some sort of volatility in and around that date to see this through.
Mint
29-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
The temperament trap: Why your personality might be your portfolio's biggest enemy
I recently discovered a curious thing during a conversation with a software engineer friend. He's spent hours analysing quarterly results, studying balance sheets, and calculating intrinsic values before selecting what he considered the perfect stock. Six months later, after a 15% decline, he sold everything in a panic. Meanwhile, his wife, who describes herself as 'hopeless with numbers", had quietly accumulated units in an equity mutual fund through a systematic investment plan (SIP). Her return? Significantly better than his, with far less stress. This isn't an isolated incident, and it's not about stocks vs mutual funds. It's a pattern I've observed repeatedly over two decades of writing about investments. The most analytically gifted individuals often struggle with investing, not because they lack intelligence, but because their very strengths become their greatest weaknesses when markets turn volatile. Also Read: Ask yourself these questions to avoid emotional investing Consider the typical traits we associate with successful professionals. Doctors are trained to make quick decisions under pressure. Corporate executives thrive on immediate feedback and rapid course corrections. Engineers solve problems through systematic analysis and optimisation. These are admirable qualities in their respective fields, but they can become a problem when applied to equity markets. The doctor's instinct to act swiftly when something goes wrong translates into panic selling during market downturns. The executive's need for constant feedback leads to obsessive portfolio monitoring and frequent trading. The engineer's desire to optimise every variable results in endless tweaking of asset allocation and stock selection, often at precisely the wrong moments. But here's what's particularly fascinating: some personality types that society doesn't typically celebrate often make remarkably successful investors. The chronic procrastinator who takes months to make any financial decision might miss some opportunities, but they also avoid most disasters. The absent-minded type who forgets to check their portfolio for years at a time often discovers they've accidentally become quite wealthy. Manage instincts This raises an uncomfortable question: If temperament matters more than intelligence in investing, how do we work with our natural inclinations rather than against them? The first step is honest self-assessment. Are you someone who checks share prices multiple times daily? That's a warning sign. Do you feel compelled to act on every piece of market news? Another red flag. Do you constantly second-guess your investment decisions? You're probably overthinking. Also Read: Inside Edelweiss MF CEO Radhika Gupta's plan to build over ₹10-crore—and how she's investing to get there The solution isn't to change your personality—that's neither possible nor necessary. Instead, build systems that compensate for your temperamental weaknesses while leveraging your strengths. If you're naturally impatient, automate your investments through SIPs. This removes the daily decision-making that fuels your impatience, while ensuring consistent wealth building. If you're a perfectionist who struggles with uncertainty, focus on index funds rather than individual stocks. You'll never pick the perfect stock, but you don't need to. If you're prone to panic during volatility, limit how often you check your portfolio. Some investors I know have given their login credentials to a trusted family member with instructions not to return them during market downturns. Others have set up automatic investments but deliberately chosen platforms with poor mobile apps to reduce the temptation of constant monitoring. The naturally cautious can utilise their risk aversion as a strength by focusing on quality companies with strong balance sheets and predictable business models. Their reluctance to take excessive risks, whilst potentially limiting spectacular gains, also protects them from spectacular losses. Those blessed with analytical minds should channel their abilities into understanding businesses rather than predicting short-term price movements. Study annual reports, understand competitive advantages, and assess management quality. But once you've made your investment decision, resist the urge to revisit and optimise constantly. Your analytical nature makes you prone to finding new data that contradicts your original thesis. Most of the time, this new information is noise rather than a signal. Set specific intervals—perhaps quarterly or annually—for reviewing your investments, and avoid tinkering between these scheduled assessments. The gregarious types who love discussing investments face a different challenge. Every conversation about markets becomes an opportunity for doubt and second-guessing. Consider limiting investment discussions to once a quarter, or confining them to a small circle of like-minded, long-term investors. Remember that most market chatter is designed to create urgency and prompt action, neither of which serves the patient investor well. For those who are naturally competitive, the stock market can become a dangerous playground. The urge to beat the market, outsmart other investors, or prove one's superior stock-picking ability can lead to excessive trading and unnecessary risk. Channel this competitive spirit instead towards beating your past self—focus on improving your savings rate, reducing unnecessary expenses, or lengthening your investment time horizon. Also Read: GenAI for investing: Smart money moves or risky bets? The detail-oriented personality faces the trap of analysis paralysis. While thoroughness is generally beneficial, waiting for perfect information before investing means never investing at all. Markets are forward-looking and inherently uncertain. Accept that you'll never have complete information, and focus on making decisions with adequate rather than perfect data. Build systems Perhaps most importantly, recognise that successful investing requires embracing paradoxes that go against many professional instincts. Sometimes the best action is inaction. Often, boring is better than exciting. Frequently, simple beats sophisticated. The very qualities that make you successful in your career—quick decision-making, constant optimisation, competitive drive—may work against you in the investment arena. The market rewards patience over intelligence, consistency over brilliance, and emotional stability over analytical prowess. This doesn't mean analysis is worthless—it means analysis without the right temperament is often counterproductive. The most sophisticated spreadsheet in the world won't help if you panic and sell at the first sign of trouble. Your personality isn't your destiny as an investor, but it is your starting point. Work with your nature, not against it. Build systems that make good behaviour automatic and bad behaviour difficult. Remember, the goal isn't to become a different person; it's to become a better investor whilst remaining yourself. The most successful investors aren't those who've conquered their personalities, but those who've learned to dance with them. Dhirendra Kumar is the founder and chief executive of Value Research, an independent investment research firm.
Time of India
27-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Edelweiss Mutual Fund crosses Rs 1.50 lakh crore AUM: Radhika Gupta shares Rs 150 coin
Edelweiss Mutual Fund has crossed Rs 1.50 lakh crore of AUM , the CEO Radhika Gupta posted on social media, observing that milestones aren't the end, they are the moments that reassure, energize and inspire. Rs 1.5 lakh crore of AUM reflects the strength of our foundation and confidence in our future, the fund house said. Thank you 🙏 — Radhika Gupta (@iRadhikaGupta) May 27, 2025 Best MF to invest Looking for the best mutual funds to invest? Here are our recommendations. View Details » In another post the CEO shared a video showing a Rs 150 coin which she feels privileged one to have. Also Read | An underrated solution, finding its due: Radhika Gupta reacts on tax-efficient options beyond equities Live Events She posted on social media X that, 'Celebrating our 150 with a mega 150! 150,000 crores of AUM for @EdelweissMF , a young financial institution celebrated with 150 years for @bseindia , an iconic financial institution. This coin - legal tender of 150 rupees - is one I am privileged to have. Iconic and for the ages.' Edelweiss Mutual Fund has achieved Rs 1.50 lakh crore AUM coinciding with the BSE 's 150-year legacy. Celebrating our 150 with a mega 150! 150,000 crores of AUM for @EdelweissMF , a young financial institution celebrated with 150 years for @bseindia , an iconic financial institution. This coin - legal tender of 150 rupees - is one I am privileged to have. Iconic and for the… — Radhika Gupta (@iRadhikaGupta) May 27, 2025 Gupta in her earlier post said, 'An underrated solution finding it's due! For the last two years we have worked to provide a tax efficient fixed income alternative in Edelweiss Multi Asset Allocation Fund using arbitrage in various asset classes. The track record of both returns over 1/2Y and risk (no negative months) speaks for itself.' With stock prices running high, cautious investors are staying away from the market but for wealthy investors looking for tax-friendly options outside of stocks, some new mutual fund strategies are proving to be attractive choices on which Radhika Gupta, CEO of Edelweiss Mutual Fund says that an underrated solution is finding its due. Also Read | Nifty up 13% from April's low. How should mutual fund investors alter their investment strategy? She posted a photo of a news article which was published in ET saying, 'Top tax-efficient MF strategies for risk-averse investors.' The news article was about categories such as arbitrage funds, income plus arbitrage FoFs, multi-asset allocation and precious metal funds (gold/silver) are gaining traction as these funds typically avoid direct equity exposure while offering better post-tax returns than traditional fixed income. The ET article mentioned that multi asset allocation funds that can invest in diverse asset classes if held for two years, the gains are taxed at the rate of 12.5% and if held for less than two years, the gains are added to the investors' income and are taxed as per slab rates. These funds are used by investors as debt allocation for tax efficiency and Edelweiss Multi Asset Allocation Fund was the top scheme with 9.27% return in a one year period.
Economic Times
27-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Edelweiss Mutual Fund crosses Rs 1.50 lakh crore AUM: Radhika Gupta shares Rs 150 coin
Edelweiss MF hits ₹1.5 lakh crore AUM, celebrates BSE 150, and promotes tax-efficient multi-asset strategies for conservative investors Edelweiss Mutual Fund has crossed Rs 1.50 lakh crore of AUM, the CEO Radhika Gupta posted on social media, observing that milestones aren't the end, they are the moments that reassure, energize and 1.5 lakh crore of AUM reflects the strength of our foundation and confidence in our future, the fund house said. Thank you 🙏 — Radhika Gupta (@iRadhikaGupta) May 27, 2025 In another post the CEO shared a video showing a Rs 150 coin which she feels privileged one to have. Also Read | An underrated solution, finding its due: Radhika Gupta reacts on tax-efficient options beyond equities She posted on social media X that, 'Celebrating our 150 with a mega 150! 150,000 crores of AUM for @EdelweissMF, a young financial institution celebrated with 150 years for @bseindia, an iconic financial institution. This coin - legal tender of 150 rupees - is one I am privileged to have. Iconic and for the ages.' Edelweiss Mutual Fund has achieved Rs 1.50 lakh crore AUM coinciding with the BSE's 150-year legacy. Celebrating our 150 with a mega 150! 150,000 crores of AUM for @EdelweissMF, a young financial institution celebrated with 150 years for @bseindia, an iconic financial institution. This coin - legal tender of 150 rupees - is one I am privileged to have. Iconic and for the… — Radhika Gupta (@iRadhikaGupta) May 27, 2025 Gupta in her earlier post said, 'An underrated solution finding it's due! For the last two years we have worked to provide a tax efficient fixed income alternative in Edelweiss Multi Asset Allocation Fund using arbitrage in various asset classes. The track record of both returns over 1/2Y and risk (no negative months) speaks for itself.'With stock prices running high, cautious investors are staying away from the market but for wealthy investors looking for tax-friendly options outside of stocks, some new mutual fund strategies are proving to be attractive choices on which Radhika Gupta, CEO of Edelweiss Mutual Fund says that an underrated solution is finding its due. Also Read | Nifty up 13% from April's low. How should mutual fund investors alter their investment strategy? She posted a photo of a news article which was published in ET saying, 'Top tax-efficient MF strategies for risk-averse investors.' The news article was about categories such as arbitrage funds, income plus arbitrage FoFs, multi-asset allocation and precious metal funds (gold/silver) are gaining traction as these funds typically avoid direct equity exposure while offering better post-tax returns than traditional fixed ET article mentioned that multi asset allocation funds that can invest in diverse asset classes if held for two years, the gains are taxed at the rate of 12.5% and if held for less than two years, the gains are added to the investors' income and are taxed as per slab rates. These funds are used by investors as debt allocation for tax efficiency and Edelweiss Multi Asset Allocation Fund was the top scheme with 9.27% return in a one year period. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
