Latest news with #EdwardLorenz
The Hindu
24-06-2025
- Science
- The Hindu
Interview with Jagadish Shukla, author of A Billion Butterflies: A Life in Climate and Chaos Theory
Eminent climate scientist Dr. Jagadish Shukla has devoted a lifetime to improving seasonal weather predictions, and especially monsoonal predictions for India. He grew up in rural Uttar Pradesh and seeing how people's lives depended on the monsoon and information around it, made it his mission to forecast seasonal weather events. In doing so, he has changed the course of modern weather prediction. He tells the story in his new book, A Billion Butterflies: A Life in Climate and Chaos Theory, a personal memoir as well as a log about the course weather and climate science has taken. Edited excerpts from an interview. One of the things that makes your book fascinating is that it deals with a topic that people talk of daily, but has a limited understanding of. A fascinating line says, 'Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.' What does that mean? All that it means is that long-term average weather is climate. Typically, a 30-year average of values is considered as climate. So what you expect to happen on a certain date is based on this, and what actually happens – weather -- is over and above that. The reason it is important to understand this is that we tend to think climate is fixed, but it is not. It is changing every day and changing in a well defined manner and it is also different over different places. The title of the book and your area of study refer to the chaos theory and thereby the butterfly effect. When applied to climate science, does it really mean that we are looking at the variables that go into the forecast models? First of all, the equations that define weather and climate are the same; just that weather does not consider some big factors like chemistry, aerosols etc. The butterfly effect is all about weather. Predictions are based on what happens today and the equations chosen. However, these predictions, hold good only for a few days. Even with improvements in computing and satellite observations, accuracy begins to get tricky after 10 days. This is because the equations which do the prediction are non-linear and small errors on the first day can lead to very large variations a few days ahead. And that's the origin of the word 'butterfly effect' as defined by one of my advisers, Professor Edward Lorenz from MIT. What is even more interesting is when he first spoke of this effect on forecasts, he used the analogy of a seagull flapping its wings over an ocean. The butterfly terminology came much later because the actual graphical result of his paper resembles a flapping butterfly! My motivation when studying the monsoon was to find exceptions to the butterfly effect and I found it eventually -- it was the ocean temperatures. Science is not just about experiments and ideas; it is also about communicating those ideas. My work showed that once ocean temperatures are included as a factor, even a billion butterflies flapping their wings could not affect it significantly. It is evident from your work that meteorology and forecasting has improved dramatically, including in India. How are we placed in terms of how we look at climate change? Tthe very first supercomputer that came to India in 1989 was for weather. While we have kept pace since and our weather forecasts are comparable to what is happening globally, our monsoon forecasts still need work. In terms of climate, it is disappointing that developed countries like the U.S. has shown great reluctance to accept the reality of climate change. India requires a national effort towards climate assessment and adaption for buy-in and action from policy makers and effective governance. You were the lead author of the IPCC assessment report that shared the Nobel Peace Prize along with Al Gore in 2007. Do you think it was a kind of a global turning point in terms of climate change discourse? I think so. And it had one good effect as well as a very bad one. The good part was that this was the first time scientists could conclusively state and prove that human activities are negatively affecting global climate. Eight years later at the Paris climate change conference (COP21), nearly 200 countries agreed to a legally binding international treaty to make efforts to limit global warming and temperature rise. The bad news came from the U.S. and perhaps elsewhere. This was the point where the fossil fuel industry stepped up their attacks on actively trying to disprove climate science through both overt and covert means. It really is the worst combination of politics and profit motives undermining one of society's greatest challenges. It almost seems as if your life is driven forward by destiny. And you keep referring to the monsoon. How much of a critical part was it in your early life and in shaping your career? As far as my personal life was concerned, especially early on, it just felt like things were happening on their own; with many things being beyond my control. It was much later that I started making my own decisions. So far as the monsoon is concerned, that certainly has been the central part of my journey. In my village Mirdha, monsoons or its failure, had a profound effect on life, including food on your plate. And so, I went to MIT with a very clear aim – to be able to predict the monsoon. Because that was the way I felt I could help my village, my country, the agricultural community. Twice in my life I was very close to shifting to other spheres of work, but my interest and efforts remained focused on the monsoon. What does a life dedicated to scientific rigour mean? Does it take a toll on your personal life? Oh certainly, it does. When you are excited about what you are doing and you think you are making progress, you tend to ignore some aspects of your personal life. I often feel that perhaps my children did not have enough time to be with me and know me better. There was a point where my daughter asked what her dad looks like. That said I am indebted to the complete support and trust of my wife. You have gone back to your village and helped set up a woman's college and contributed otherwise nationally as well. So would you say that your life has sort of come full circle? I wouldn't call it a full circle; rather life has been like that all along. I was always involved with family, Mirdha, India and science – to the extent that some people believed that I was doing all of this to eventually run for a political office! We have seen that climate change affects certain strata of society more than others. How well do you think we are prepared to adapt to these changes? People say that climate change is the biggest problem facing us. For me, it is only one of the two biggest problems. The other being inequality and lack of social justice. In India for example, we go to international forums and say that our per capita income is relatively small and so we should be exempt from taking serious climate action. But when you look closely, it is less than 10% of the population that is responsible for most of the actual emissions. While it is the remaining 90% that will bear the brunt of the impacts of climate change. As far as I am concerned, climate action in the end is a sort of a fight against the injustices that exists in this world. What really stands out from the book is how you are driven by a great belief in your own understanding of life. Even if this has meant standing contrary to existing view points. Yes, I have conviction. But I have also been open to being proven wrong. In modern society, especially democracies like the U.S., there is always a lot of talk about liberty and freedom; but not so much about happiness. Thanks to my mother, right from my childhood, I have understood that giving to others and society is one of the best ways to attain this. Billion Butterflies: A Life in Climate & Chaos Theory Jagadish Shukla Macmillan ₹699 The interviewer is a birder and writer based in Chennai.
Budapest Times
23-02-2025
- Climate
- Budapest Times
From Dublin to the Danube
We're living in turbulent times. It seems as if each new day announces another raft of changes to the world order. Change is good. It keeps things lively. But so much change at once though? That's destabilising. Discombobulating. Downright worrying even. The butterfly in the butterfly effect, coined by meteorologist Edward Lorenz, some 70 years ago ('tiny, butterfly-scale changes to the starting point of his computer weather models resulted in anything from sunny skies to violent storms, with no way to predict in advance what the outcome might be') has grown into a large bird of prey. Whatever happens in the USA, in Russia, in China, in the Middle East, we will all feel the effects. I caught myself last week in conversation saying 'At times like these, I retreat, searching for the safety of tradition, of the known, of the constant.' And yet times like these are unprecedented in my lifetime. What I'm retreating from is the hastiness, the seeming rush to change for change's sake. Thankfully, we're heading into March and the constancy of the annual St Patrick's Day celebrations beckons. I cannot speak for whether the world will be too preoccupied with current events to make much of it this year, but in Budapest, plans are afoot to mark the occasion with aplomb. If ever we needed a day to revel in the simpler things of life, it is now. On Sunday, 16th March, the crowd will start gathering at noon in Szabadság tér [check the event page on Facebook for more details nearer the date], where a carnival-like experience awaits with live Irish music and dance and a demonstration of Gaelic football by members of the Gaelic Athletic Association (or as we call it, the GAA). There'll also be a brass band and majorettes. For dog lovers, Irish Setters and Irish Wolfhounds will make an appearance and for kids (and the kid in you) there'll be face painting and balloon bending. By the way, the face painting by the folks from The English Garden will be raising money for Őrzők, a foundation that supports children with cancer and leukemia. Naturally, as with any Irish shindig of note, in addition to the music, there'll be plenty of food and refreshments to keep the celebrations going. Pack your patience as the Guinness and Irish whiskey stands are always very popular. The parade itself will start at 2 pm and wend its way through the city, in a palpable demonstration of good cheer. Then it's back to Szabadság tér to continue the party. I'm inordinately proud that on this day (and yes, I know it's a day early, St Patrick's Day itself being the 17th), the world likes to celebrate its Irishness or its affinity for our small country and its people. I have fond memories of the inaugural Parade in Budapest back in 2011. It was a working Saturday. Oh, the looks we got. People asked what we were demonstrating against and were a tad incredulous that we were parading not in protest of anything but in celebration of something. Many things. All things Irish. And, of course, the Irish pubs in Budapest will be flying the flag in style that weekend, too, rolling out an even bigger dose of their usual Irish hospitality. Check out Beckett's on Liszt Ferenc tér, Davy Byrnes on Sörház utca, Jack Doyle's on the corner of Városház utca and Pilvax köz, and James Joyce on Podmaninczy Frigyes tér (in alphabetic order lest I be accused of favouritism). Don't miss out. For more details, check out the St Patrick's Day Budapest Facebook page and the website. A full programme of events will be published as the festive occasion draws nearer. This year, you've a full week to recover before the annual St Patrick's Gala Celebration takes place at the Marriott Hotel on 22 March. With a welcome drink on the tray from 6 pm, a three-course meal, and lots of Irish fare, it promises to be a night full of the Irish triumvirate of ceol, caint, agus craic (music, chat, and fun) . The gala dinner this year, as always, will feature a tombolo and charity auction to raise funds for two worthwhile Hungarian charities – TAMI and NANE. Last year's event sold out. Don't be disappointed. Book your place at the table now. Whatever else happens in the world in March, you can count on the St Patrick's annual celebrations in Budapest to gather old friends and new, create memories you'll cherish, and do some good in the process. What's not to like? Sure St Patrick himself would be proud. So, get your green (or your blue) on and come join the festivities. And if you're short on green, don't worry – there'll be t-shirts for sale on the day.
Hi Dubai
31-01-2025
- General
- Hi Dubai
Valentine's Day in a Parallel Universe: What If You Had Chosen Differently?
Every love story is a series of choices—some big, some small, but all capable of changing the course of our lives. What if you had sent that text? What if you had stayed a little longer? What if, in another universe, the one that got away never left? The Many-Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics suggests that every decision we make creates a new reality, one where an alternate version of us exists, living out a different possibility. This means that somewhere, in a parallel universe, another version of you may be experiencing a completely different love story. Perhaps you're still with your first love, or maybe you never crossed paths with your current partner. The Butterfly Effect, a concept from chaos theory, tells us that even the smallest decisions—turning left instead of right, choosing to sit at a particular café—can have enormous consequences. A study from MIT on decision fatigue found that the human brain makes an estimated 35,000 choices per day, many of them unconscious, but each with the potential to shift the direction of our lives. And when it comes to love, those choices feel even heavier. Research from the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology suggests that humans are wired to ruminate on "what-ifs" more intensely when emotions like love and regret are involved. Our brains replay lost possibilities, imagining the happiness we might have had. But is there a universe where things turn out differently? If so, does that version of you feel any more fulfilled than you do now? This article explores the idea that every love we've ever known exists somewhere, shaped by the choices we made or didn't make. Would another version of you be happier? Or does love, no matter the timeline, always find its way? The Butterfly Effect of Love: Small Choices, Big Consequences The Butterfly Effect, a term coined by meteorologist Edward Lorenz, illustrates how minor actions can lead to significant and unpredictable outcomes. In relationships, this concept underscores how seemingly trivial decisions can profoundly influence the course of our love lives. The Butterfly Effect on Relationships In the realm of love, small choices—like initiating a conversation or choosing to be vulnerable—can set off a chain of events leading to deep connections or missed opportunities. For instance, deciding to attend a social event might result in meeting a future partner, while opting out could mean never crossing paths. These subtle decisions highlight the delicate interplay between chance and choice in shaping our romantic journeys. Scientific Theories on Parallel Universes The Many-Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics proposes that every possible outcome of a decision spawns its own universe, leading to a vast multiverse of parallel realities. In this framework, each choice we make creates a divergent path, resulting in countless versions of ourselves experiencing different life scenarios. This theory suggests that for every decision—such as sending a text or choosing to stay—there exists a universe where the alternative occurred, leading to a different relationship outcome. Reflecting on 'What If' Scenarios Contemplating these alternate realities can evoke a range of emotions, from curiosity to regret. Research indicates that imagining different life choices can make individuals more independent and self-focused, as they consider the various paths not taken. This introspection can lead to a richer psychological experience, as it encourages us to envision diverse and interesting life narratives, contributing to what some psychologists call a "psychologically rich life." By acknowledging the Butterfly Effect and the concept of parallel universes, we gain a deeper appreciation for the intricate web of choices that shape our love lives. This perspective invites us to reflect on the power of seemingly insignificant decisions and the myriad possibilities they create in the tapestry of our relationships. Soulmates Across Universes: Do We Always Find Each Other? The concept of soulmates traversing multiple realities invites us to explore profound questions about love, destiny, and the interconnectedness of all things. The Theory of Soulmates Across Parallel Realities The idea that the same souls meet across different realities suggests that in the vast multiverse, there exist versions of ourselves experiencing varied life paths. In some of these parallel universes, we might encounter the same souls, forming relationships that mirror or differ from those in our current reality. This perspective implies that certain connections are so profound that they manifest across multiple planes of existence. Inevitability of Certain Loves If every possible outcome of our choices exists in some parallel universe, then there are realities where certain relationships are destined to occur. In some universes, two individuals might meet and form a deep bond, while in others, circumstances prevent their paths from crossing. This raises intriguing questions about the nature of love and destiny: Are some connections so powerful that they transcend individual realities, making certain loves inevitable across the multiverse? Quantum Entanglement: A Metaphor for Human Connection Quantum entanglement is a phenomenon where two particles become interconnected in such a way that the state of one instantly influences the state of the other, regardless of the distance separating them. This mysterious connection has been likened to the bonds between individuals. Just as entangled particles remain connected across space, it's proposed that two hearts can share a similar bond, maintaining a connection that defies conventional understanding. While the scientific basis for soulmates across parallel universes remains speculative, these concepts offer a fascinating mix of physics, philosophy, and the mysteries of human connection. They invite us to ponder the depth and breadth of our relationships and the possible existence of bonds that transcend the boundaries of our known reality. The Paths We Didn't Walk: A Glimpse Into Other Realities The concept of parallel universes has long fascinated storytellers, leading to rich explorations of the lives we might have led had we made different choices. This idea delves into the profound "what ifs" of our existence, especially concerning love and relationships. Imagining Alternate Versions of Ourselves In the realm of speculative fiction, authors and filmmakers often explore scenarios where characters encounter alternate versions of themselves, each shaped by different decisions. This narrative device allows for a deep examination of identity and the impact of our choices. Exploring 'The One That Got Away' in Different Timelines The notion of "the one that got away" resonates deeply in the context of parallel universes. It suggests that in some alternate reality, a relationship that never materialized in our current world might have flourished. This theme is poignantly explored in various works of fiction. Portrayal in Movies and Literature Several films and novels have delved into the concept of alternate realities and the paths not taken: "Sliding Doors" (1998): This film presents two parallel storylines based on the protagonist's simple decision to catch or miss a train, leading to vastly different life outcomes. This film presents two parallel storylines based on the protagonist's simple decision to catch or miss a train, leading to vastly different life outcomes. "The Midnight Library" by Matt Haig: This novel explores a library between life and death, where each book represents a different version of the protagonist's life had she made different choices. This novel explores a library between life and death, where each book represents a different version of the protagonist's life had she made different choices. "Run Lola Run" (1998): The film showcases multiple scenarios of a woman's attempt to save her boyfriend, emphasizing how minor variations can lead to different outcomes. These narratives invite us to reflect on our own lives, pondering how different choices might have led to alternate realities. They underscore the delicate interplay between chance and decision, reminding us of the myriad possibilities that each moment holds. Love That Defies Time and Space Love that transcends time and space has long captivated human imagination, with numerous accounts and beliefs suggesting that certain connections endure beyond a single lifetime. Real-Life Love Stories That Stood the Test of Time Some love stories don't end—they just pause, waiting for the right moment to begin again. Across the world, couples have found their way back to each other after years, even decades, apart, proving that sometimes, love defies time itself. Reuniting After 16 Years – A woman once in a long-term relationship with a man she deeply loved never imagined their paths would cross again. But 16 years later, an unexpected moment—an old book review he wrote—rekindled a connection they thought was lost. – A woman once in a long-term relationship with a man she deeply loved never imagined their paths would cross again. But 16 years later, an unexpected moment—an old book review he wrote—rekindled a connection they thought was lost. Three Decades Apart, Still Meant to Be – Life took them in different directions, sending them to opposite ends of the world. But after 30 years, fate intervened, and they found themselves face to face again, realizing that what they had never truly faded. – Life took them in different directions, sending them to opposite ends of the world. But after 30 years, fate intervened, and they found themselves face to face again, realizing that what they had never truly faded. 42 Years Later, Still in Love – High school sweethearts who lost touch for over four decades finally reunited, picking up where they left off. Their story is a testament to the idea that some bonds remain unbreakable, even when time and distance try to stand in the way. These stories remind us that love isn't always linear—it can stretch across years, waiting for the right moment to return. Perhaps, somewhere, in another version of your life—or even in this one—the love you thought was lost is simply waiting for its time to come back. Spiritual Beliefs in Past-Life Connections Many spiritual traditions propose that relationships can span multiple lifetimes: Reincarnation and Soulmates : Some believe that souls travel through various lifetimes together, forming deep connections that influence present-day relationships. These bonds, often referred to as karmic relationships, are thought to help individuals learn essential life lessons. : Some believe that souls travel through various lifetimes together, forming deep connections that influence present-day relationships. These bonds, often referred to as karmic relationships, are thought to help individuals learn essential life lessons. Past-Life Recognition: Experiences of déjà vu or an immediate, unexplainable familiarity with someone upon first meeting are often interpreted as signs of past-life connections. Such encounters can evoke strong emotions and a sense of having known the person before. The Notion of Love Persisting in Parallel Universes The idea that love endures across different realities is a compelling one: Parallel Universes and Alternate Realities Theoretical physics suggests the existence of multiple universes where different versions of our lives play out. In this context, it's intriguing to consider that a love lost in one reality might continue in another, with different choices leading to enduring relationships elsewhere. Accepting This Reality: The Beauty of the Life We Chose If you could glimpse into another version of your life—one where you made a different choice in love—would it change how you feel about where you are now? Would knowing that, in some universe, you stayed, texted back, or never let go make you doubt the love you have today? The Many-Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics suggests that every choice creates a new reality. But here's a thought: just as there is a universe where you choose differently, there is also a universe where another version of you longs for the life you have now. What if, out of all possibilities, this one is still the most beautiful? The Psychological Weight of 'What Ifs' Studies show that people who frequently engage in counterfactual thinking—the habit of imagining alternate life scenarios—often experience more regret and dissatisfaction. Research from Frontiers in Psychology suggests that excessive 'what if' thinking can increase stress and prevent people from fully embracing their present. In contrast, people who reframe their choices as necessary steps in their growth report higher emotional well-being. Instead of seeing the past as a collection of mistakes, they view it as a path that led them exactly where they are meant to be. The Love That Exists in the Present Romanticized versions of the past often lack the realities of the present. The brain has a way of distorting memory—what psychologists call rosy retrospection—where we remember love stories in their best light while forgetting the reasons they ended. That "perfect love in another universe" may not have been perfect at all. A study in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology found that people who focus on appreciating their current relationships—rather than fantasizing about lost love—experience deeper satisfaction and emotional connection. Maybe, Just Maybe, This Is the Universe Where You Are Meant to Be What if, out of all the possible versions of yourself, this is the one that got it right? Maybe your choices weren't mistakes but coordinates guiding you to the love, the lessons, and the life you were always meant to have. So instead of mourning the love that might exist elsewhere, celebrate the love that exists here, now, in this reality. Because in the end, every parallel version of you is just trying to find what you already have—the beauty of a life fully lived. As we conclude this exploration of love across parallel universes, let's reflect on the profound idea that while countless versions of ourselves may exist, each experiencing different paths, the love we hold in this reality is uniquely ours. The concept of the multiverse suggests that every possible outcome of our choices unfolds in alternate realities. In some, we may have taken different paths in love, leading to various relationships and experiences. However, it's essential to recognize that these are mere possibilities, not our lived experiences. Philosophically, love is deeply intertwined with our sense of self and the choices we make. The relationships we've built, the memories we've created, and the emotions we've felt are integral to who we are in this universe. While it's intriguing to ponder "what might have been," it's equally important to cherish "what is." On this Valentine's Day, let's honor not only the love we have but also the journey that brought us here. Embracing the present allows us to fully appreciate the depth and beauty of our current relationships. After all, in the vast expanse of possibilities, the reality we inhabit holds its own unique and irreplaceable love story. In one world, you might be with someone else—but in this one, you are you, and that's the only reality that matters. Also read: Celebrate Valentine's Day with these Special Offerings in Dubai The award-winning hospitality group brings an array of delightful offers for Valentine's Day across its renowned venues, including Asia Asia, The 305, The Showhouse, STK and more. Celebrate All Kinds of Love at Dubai Creek Resort the Entire Month of February Bringing incredible offers that celebrate love in all its forms, Dubai Creek Resort truly has something for everyone! Embrace the Romance of the Season this Valentine's Day at The H Dubai Savour moments to remember at this incredible destination as it presents its unforgettable Valentine's escape package, tempting spa treatments, engaging mixology classes, and so much more Top Valentine's Day Offers and Date Night Spots in Dubai From pampering spa experiences and indulgent meals to unique, fun events for singles or couples alike, Dubai's beauty, wellness, and dining scenes are ready to help you make this Valentine's Day unforgettable.
