Latest news with #ElNino-SouthernOscillation
Time of India
13-07-2025
- Climate
- Time of India
U'khand emerging as hotspot for extreme climate events: Study
Dehradun: A new scientific study published in the 'Journal of the Geological Society of India' has confirmed what many in Uttarakhand have long feared -- the state is fast becoming a hotspot for extreme weather events. The study flagged alarming trends in rainfall variability, surface runoff and rising temperatures, alongside a sharp spike in cloudbursts and flash floods, especially since 2010. Conducted by geoscientists from Doon University, Wadia Institute and Delhi University, the study -- published in the July issue -- analysed nearly four decades (1982-2020) of climate data using satellite-based models. The findings suggested that Uttarakhand is increasingly vulnerable to both monsoon and non-monsoon extreme weather, driven by a complex interplay of regional climatic shifts and global phenomena such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole. Researchers observed a distinct increase in extreme rainfall and surface runoff events post-2010. From 1998 to 2009, the state saw rising temperatures and unusually low rainfall -- a trend that coincided with weakened global climate oscillations. But after 2010, the pattern reversed, particularly in central and western Uttarakhand, accompanied by a surge in cloudbursts. "Analysing cloudburst and extreme rainfall events in Uttarakhand between 1970 and 2021 reveals a clear increase in frequency after 2010," said YP Sundriyal, professor at Doon University and lead author of the study. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Is it legal? How to get Internet without paying a subscription? Techno Mag Learn More Undo The study examined 140 extreme hydro-meteorological events, most clustered between 30°-31°N latitude and 79°–80.5°E longitude -- a zone aligned with the Main Central Thrust (MCT), a major geological fault line. Rudraprayag and Bageshwar districts emerged as key hotspots, owing to the region's geological fragility and the influence of orographic lifting. While seasonal temperature variations were less erratic than rainfall, consistent warming was observed in the northern glaciated zones, especially in upper Rudraprayag and Bageshwar. These areas also showed increasing surface radiative temperature, which the researchers said may correlate with glacial retreat and heightened flood risk. Notably, the study challenged the prevailing assumption that extreme rainfall events in the region are primarily driven by positive ENSO or Indian Ocean Dipole phases. "The relationship is more nuanced than previously thought," the authors noted, suggesting that local moisture transport patterns and Himalayan topography may exert stronger influence on regional climate dynamics. The authors called for urgent district-level climate adaptation planning, better early warning systems and enhanced monitoring in high-risk zones, especially as Uttarakhand continues to face cascading climate challenges.
The Citizen
04-06-2025
- Climate
- The Citizen
Winter arrives with double cold fronts and chilly nights
Experts warn colder nights and frost are likely due to wet soil from recent rainfall. The first of the winter cold fronts moving over parts of the country is a preview of the rest of the season. Vox Weather meteorologist Annette Botha said it was officially winter in South Africa, although some argue winter only starts on 21 June. The first of two cold fronts moving in over the country with chilly temperatures are a taste of what's to come. Cold front a taste of what's to come 'A stronger, more intense cold front is set to hit on Saturday. On Friday it will be windy in the interior with gusting northwesterly winds ahead of the strong cold front expected to move over the Western Cape,' she said. Vox Weather meteorologist Michelle du Plessis said there was a difference between meteorological and astronomical seasons. 'Meteorological seasons are based on annual temperature cycle and follow the calendar, so every three months is a new season,' she said. ALSO READ: SA Weather forecasts cool and fine weather with rains and winds 'Astronomical seasons are based on the position of the earth relative to the sun and use solstices and equinoxes,' she added. Du Plessis said higher rainfall didn't necessarily mean lower temperatures in winter. 'Not necessarily colder overall – but wetter soils can play a role in how temperatures behave at night. Wetter soil from recent rainfall plays role in night temps 'When soils are wetter from good autumn rainfall, they to lose heat faster overnight, especially under clear skies. This can lead to colder nights and more frequent frost, even if daytime temperatures remain fairly mild. 'So while it doesn't mean we'll have a colder winter in general, the risk of frost can increase, particularly in inland regions like the Free State, Gauteng and the highveld, where frost is already common.' Du Plessis said after a wet summer or autumn, the soil holds onto more moisture going into winter. ALSO READ: The cold front is here! Here's how long it will last for [VIDEO] 'That doesn't mean the whole winter will be colder. Temperatures depend more on the weather systems that move over the country and whether we get bursts of cold, subpolar air, but it can make nights feel colder,' she said. Du Plessis said historical climate patterns from the SA Weather Service show frost can occur even in warmer-than-average winters, especially when skies are clear and soil moisture is high. This allows surface temperatures to drop rapidly at night. 'The latest seasonal models are showing above-average temperatures overall this winter. We'll still get those icy cold snaps like every year,' she said. Above-average temps overall this winter Last month, the SA Weather Service issued the seasonal climate watch from May to September. According to the seasonal forecast, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation has returned to a neutral state and will be in a neutral state for the foreseeable future. The southwestern and the southern and eastern coastal areas are expected to receive mostly below-normal rainfall early, midand late-winter. The minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be above normal for most parts during the winter, with the exception of the southern coastal areas that are expected to be below normal in parts. NOW READ: Get your blankets out: Cold front to hit Gauteng
The Star
23-05-2025
- Climate
- The Star
INTERACTIVE: No extreme dry conditions expected despite hot 2024
Malaysian Meteorological Department assistant officer Norashikin Anuar monitoring weather conditions through satelite/radar images at Malaysian Meteorological Department, Petaling Jaya. — FAIHAN GHANI/The Star PETALING JAYA: Last year turned out to be the fourth hottest year on record for Malaysia, but no extreme dry conditions are expected this year, says the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia). Although Malaysia is currently experiencing more dry days than rainy days due to the South-West Monsoon, heavy rains with thunderstorms and strong winds may still occur occasionally. 'The majority of forecasts produced by the latest international weather models do not expect extreme dry weather phenomena to occur throughout this Southwest monsoon season,' said MetMalaysia director-general Dr Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip. Mohd Hisham said current ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) conditions, which affects global weather patterns, are neutral and are expected to remain so throughout the year. A neutral ENSO means the climate is neither in an El Nino nor a La Nina state, but is in a normal condition. El Nino is a climate pattern typically bringing hotter, drier weather to Malaysia, while La Nina usually causes wetter conditions. 'Therefore, the country is also expected to experience the inter-monsoon transition from late September to early November, along with the Northeast monsoon at the end of the year under normal conditions." Mohd Hisham said last year was the fourth hottest year observed since 1981, when MetMalaysia began tracking the country's annual average temperature. The average annual temperature for Malaysia in 2024 was 27.55°C. He said the warmest year was 2016 (27.84°C), followed by 1998 (27.7°C) and 2019 (27.63°C). He said that Chuping, Perlis, had the highest temperature recorded last year with the mercury rising to 39.0°C on March 23. Chuping also experienced 52 consecutive days without rain in 2024, marking it as the location with the longest dry spell in 2024. Mohd Hisham said that the country experienced 45 days under a Level 2 high temperature advisory last year, the highest for any year in the past decade. A Level 2 (Orange) advisory means that a location is officially facing a heatwave, with temperatures going above 37°C but remaining below 40°C. According to previous reports by The Star , MetMalaysia issued nearly 2,000 Level 1 and Level 2 high temperature alerts since 2023. Among the locations or areas most affected by extreme temperatures, Baling in Kedah emerged as the hottest spot, receiving the highest number of alerts at 73. This was followed by Padang Terap with 61 alerts and Pendang with 56 alerts.
Straits Times
08-05-2025
- Climate
- Straits Times
US CPC sees 74% chance of ENSO Neutral conditions through June-August
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are expected to be favored through the Northern Hemisphere in summer 2025 (74% chance during June-August), the United States' Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday. Chances of ENSO neutral conditions exceed 50% through August-October 2025, it added. WHY IT'S IMPORTANT La Niña is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic cycle, which affects water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Niña results in cooler water temperatures, increasing the chances of floods and droughts, which can impact crops. When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields. CONTEXT The sugar production estimate for the ongoing 2024/25 season has been revised down to 28 million tons due to the adverse impacts of El Niño and limited groundwater resources for irrigation, a report issued on May 05 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service post in New Delhi showed. KEY QUOTES "Neutral ENSO really has no usual conditions associated with it as a neutral ENSO results in other conditions influencing the local and global pattern," AccuWeather's lead international forecaster Jason Nicholls said. "The pattern this spring has resulted in some dryness concerns in the UK and northern Europe while southern Europe has been wet. It looks like the pattern will change heading into summer with more rain opportunities in northern Europe which may improve crop prospects." REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Yahoo
08-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
US CPC sees 74% chance of ENSO Neutral conditions through June-August
(Reuters) -El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are expected to be favored through the Northern Hemisphere in summer 2025 (74% chance during June-August), the United States' Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday. Chances of ENSO neutral conditions exceed 50% through August-October 2025, it added. WHY IT'S IMPORTANT La Niña is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic cycle, which affects water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Niña results in cooler water temperatures, increasing the chances of floods and droughts, which can impact crops. When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields. CONTEXT The sugar production estimate for the ongoing 2024/25 season has been revised down to 28 million tons due to the adverse impacts of El Niño and limited groundwater resources for irrigation, a report issued on May 05 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service post in New Delhi showed. KEY QUOTES "Neutral ENSO really has no usual conditions associated with it as a neutral ENSO results in other conditions influencing the local and global pattern," AccuWeather's lead international forecaster Jason Nicholls said. "The pattern this spring has resulted in some dryness concerns in the UK and northern Europe while southern Europe has been wet. It looks like the pattern will change heading into summer with more rain opportunities in northern Europe which may improve crop prospects."
