Latest news with #EllieGeranmayeh
The Guardian
7 days ago
- Politics
- The Guardian
Afraid of Israel, angry at the regime: Iranians on 12 days of war
Before the war, something in Iran seemed to be shifting, says Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior policy fellow at the European Council of Foreign Relations. Years of protests by the opposition had come at a heavy cost – civilians injured, political prisoners, deaths – but the authoritarian government had begun to make concessions. Most visibly, there were reports that as many as one in three women were moving around Tehran with their heads uncovered. And then the Israeli strikes began, and Geranmayeh says 'all of that has now been turned upside down'. Michael Safi hears how Iranians' relationship with the regime has changed in the last two weeks, as people have rallied around the flag, horrified by Israeli and US bombs, and at the same time expressed anger and shock at a government that seems to have been so little prepared for this war. As a fragile ceasefire seems to hold, many are asking themselves the same question: what kind of Iran will come next? With special thanks to the journalist Deepa Parent, who helped to contact people from across Iran.
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First Post
23-06-2025
- Politics
- First Post
Calculated or cornered? Iran's dilemma after Trump's strikes
As Iran has vowed retaliation to US airstrikes on its nuclear sites, here are five options with Iran that range from kinetic action against US troops in the region to blocking the Strait of Hormuz and cyberattacks. There is also the possibility of Iran doubling down on the nuclear weapons programme. read more Iran is bound to respond after US airstrikes on its nuclear facilities over the weekend. Such attacks are expected to be multi-domain and not just military attacks. The United States on Saturday attacked the Iranian nuclear sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan . Even as the extent of the damage is not clear, what is clear is that the United States is now party to the Israel-Iran war and an Iranian retaliation is only a matter of time. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Iranian attacks against the United States are now 'inevitable' and 'will be swift and multi-layered based on the extent of damage caused by the US strikes', Ellie Geranmayeh, the Deputy Head of the Middle East and North Africa at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Bloomberg. However, any Iranian retaliation would depend on the kind of escalation it can absorb and what capabilities remain — as Israel has taken down many Iranian missile launchers and weapons storage sites. Geranmayeh further said, 'Iran knows it cannot win this war, but wants to ensure that the US and Israel also lose.' Here are the many options that Iran may choose to respond to US strikes. Iranian retaliatory strikes on US troops The simplest way to respond would be to attack US interests in West Asia. Iran could do such attacks itself or tell its proxies to do such attacks. The United States has around 40,000 troops in 20 bases in the region. Major US bases are located in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). US soldiers in smaller numbers are also deployed in Syria and Iraq and experts say that these soldiers and their bases are the most vulnerable to any strikes. Iran may mount a calibrated response that may include strikes on US-linked infrastructure but not US troops themselves, Geranmayeh told Bloomberg. Any Iranian strikes on US soldiers and bases would carry the risk of escalating the conflict, so experts say that Iran could telegraph such strikes so as to minimise the damage and make way for an off-ramp for both sides. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Such a retaliation would be most likely, according to Bloomberg Economics Analyst Dina Esfandiary. With such a telegraphed retaliation, Iran would tell the United States where and what it will strike with the likely lack of US deaths allowing the Donald Trump administration to have an off-ramp and impress upon Israel that it must stop its attacks, which could effectively leading to a ceasefire for all parties, Bloomberg quoted Esfandiary as saying. Iranian cyber attacks Iran has well-known cyberattack capabilities and it is expected deploy them against the United States as part of the broader retaliation. The capabilities are such that, CyberAv3ngers, a group said to be linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), carries a $10 million reward. Strait of Hormuz Iran could block or disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. The consequence will be faced by the entire world and not just the United States and its allies. The waterway carries around 20 per cent of the world's all oil and gas supplies. Iran could mine the waterway and attacks ships passing through with boats and missiles. The blockage would mean that petroleum exporting nations dependent on the waterway would find their exports curtailed. Oil and gas prices are set to surge. If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, global oil prices could reach $120 a barrel and US inflation could surge to 5 per cent, according to JPMorgan Chase. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Iranian attacks on oil fields In a less likely option, Iran may also strike oil fields of oil-producing countries in the region, which are mainly US allies and partners. In 2019, Yemen's Houthis carried out drone and missile strikes on Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities and temporarily took down around half of the kingdom's oil production. Iran may develop nuclear weapon Beside all these options, the ultimate retaliation may be the development of the nuclear bomb. Even as the United States struck three Iranian nuclear sites, the extent of the damage is not clear. There are also analyses that US strikes neither destroyed Iranian capabilities to enrich uranium completely nor stockpiles of near-weapons grade level uranium. With its back to the wall and conventional deterrence eroded, Iran may very well decide to develop a nuclear weapon.
Al Jazeera
20-06-2025
- Politics
- Al Jazeera
What is Europe's stance on the Israel-Iran conflict?
Divisions and anxiety rise in Europe over hostilities in the Middle East. The German leader and European Commission president were quick to back Israel as the conflict began with Iran last Friday. The European Union has since called for de-escalation, reflecting growing anxiety over what might happen next. So, what is the thinking in European capitals – and how much influence does Europe really have? Presenter: Neave Barker Guests: Pieter Cleppe – Editor-in-chief at Steven Erlanger – Chief diplomatic correspondent in Europe at The New York Times in Berlin Ellie Geranmayeh – Deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations
Al Jazeera
16-06-2025
- Politics
- Al Jazeera
Netanyahu derails any 'diplomatic pathway' with Iran attack
Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa Programme, says Israel's strike on Iran has likely derailed any diplomatic path to restrain Iran's nuclear programme.
Al Jazeera
13-06-2025
- Politics
- Al Jazeera
Can Israel thwart Iran's nuclear programme?
Israel hit Iran's nuclear facilities, killed several of the country's top nuclear scientists, along with the head of the Revolutionary Guard and several military leaders, and damaged residential areas in Tehran. Iran retaliated by sending hundreds of armed drones towards Israel. Israel says it had intelligence showing Iran's nuclear programme was 'developing beyond the point of return'. But the IAEA points out striking nuclear facilities is illegal under international law, as well as dangerous. Is it really possible for Israel to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities and is it risking a nuclear disaster by trying? Presenter: Cyril Vanier Guests: Ellie Geranmayeh – Senior policy fellow and deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations Ali Vaez – Director of the Iran Project at International Crisis Group Samuel Ramani – Defence analyst and associate fellow at Royal United Services Institute.
