Latest news with #EllieHenderson
The Guardian
16-07-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
Official data expected to show UK inflation remained unchanged in June
Update: Date: 2025-07-16T05:53:38.000Z Title: Ellie Henderson Content: Investec's UK economist said: We expect inflation to have held steady at 3.4% in June, matching the Bank of England's forecast made at the time of the May Monetary Policy Report. We also predict the core measure to have remained unchanged at 3.5%. One part of inflation that has not trended lower as of late is food price inflation. The warmer weather has been blamed for rising food costs, with evidence such as from the BRC shop price inflation measure suggesting it will be an upward influence on the June numbers too. This is likely to spill over into restaurant prices too, and the rise in employers' national insurance contributions will not be helping limit price pressures in this sector, along with wider recreation, either. What has been welcomed however is the downtrend in rental inflation, a factor helping overall services inflation move lower. Looking forward, she said: Looking further ahead we expect more disinflationary pressure to present itself in the data over the remainder of the year. A continual loosening in labour market conditions amidst uninspiring economic growth should, by lowering wage pressures, weigh on services inflation, while our base case is that the recent spike in food price inflation is a temporary phenomenon. Update: Date: 2025-07-16T05:50:34.000Z Title: Introduction: Official data expected to show UK inflation remained stable in June Content: Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy. It's UK inflation day! Economists are expecting the headline annual rate to have stayed at 3.4% last month, as rising food prices counter the impact from slower price rises for services. Discounting for clothes could be another factor – especially if the summer sales started earlier than usual. Having spiked in April, inflation eased back in May, albeit only slightly, to 3.4% as measured by the annual change in the consumer prices index (CPI), which tracks the prices of a basket of goods and services each month. The Office for National Statistics releases the data for June at 7am BST. The core rate of inflation, which strips out food and energy (which tend to be volatile) and is closely watched by the Bank of England, is forecast to have stayed at 3.5%. Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank, said: The market expects UK inflation to have stayed relatively stable in June at 3.4% year-on-year. This would reflect a small uptick in food prices offset by a deceleration in services inflation and still declining energy costs. Given the weaker-than-expected GDP print in May, it would require a meaningful upside surprise in UK inflation for the Bank of England not to lower interest rates in August. Morgan Stanley's chief UK economist Bruna Skarica is also forecasting a 3.4% rate. She explains: Food inflation | An express train: UK food inflation seems to be accelerating. The rise in May was concentrated, and thus initially not that concerning to us. But the British Retail Consortium is now suggesting an express pass-through of the recent hot weather to fruit and vegetable prices. It is peculiar we are not yet seeing a similar dynamic in the euro area food prices, where perhaps margins, competition or volumes all result in a softer pass-through of wholesale costs to retail prices. Core goods | On sale….but when? Summer sales normally start towards the end of June, so an earlier index day might mean a bit firmer clothing prices. Still, we see anecdotal evidence of front-loaded sales, which intuitively makes sense to us, considering the likely front-loading in purchases of summer clothing on mild spring weather in April and May. By contrast, inflation in the United States shot up in June as the impact of Donald Trump's trade tariffs started to show in US prices. Annual inflation rose to 2.7% in June, up from 2.4% in May, data showed yesterday. Last night, Rachel Reeves claimed that rules and red tape are acting as a 'boot on the neck' of businesses and risk 'choking off' innovation across the UK without bold reforms. In a speech to City bosses attending the Mansion House dinner at London's Guildhall on Tuesday evening, the chancellor heaped further pressure on regulators to allow for more risk in order to boost economic growth. 'It is clear that we must do more,' Reeves said. 'In too many areas, regulation still acts as a boot on the neck of businesses, choking off the enterprise and innovation that is the lifeblood of growth. The Agenda 9.30am BST: UK House prices for June 10am BST: Eurozone trade for May 1.30pm BST: US Producer prices for June 2.15pm BST: US Industrial production for June
Yahoo
16-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Bank of England expected to hold rates at 4.25 per cent
The Bank of England is expected to hold interest rates at 4.25 per cent after inflation jumped in April and policymakers remain 'nimble' to the evolving economic backdrop. Most economists think the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will opt to keep rates on hold when it meets on Thursday. The MPC has voted to cut rates at every other meeting since it started easing borrowing costs last August, from a peak of 5.25 per cent. This has been possible while the rate of UK inflation has been steadily falling from the highs reached in 2023, at the peak of the cost-of-living crisis. However, inflation jumped to its highest level for more than a year in April, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation hit 3.5 per cent in April, up from 2.6 per cent in March. Since releasing the data, the ONS said that an error in vehicle tax data collected meant the April figure should have been 3.4 per cent. Ellie Henderson, an economist for Investec, said monetary policy 'seems to be in a good position, allowing the Bank of England to wait and see how economic conditions and the international political backdrop evolve'. 'Ultimately, this is a highly uncertain time that requires a potentially nimble response from central banks, limiting any great foresight,' she said. 'Although the June decision might seem clear cut, how the MPC responds to the evolving economic backdrop thereafter much depends on the details of the world in which we find ourselves.' On Friday, oil prices were soaring after Israel launched an attack on Iran's nuclear programme, raising anxieties about possible disruption to the supply of the commodity in the Middle East. And ongoing uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's tariffs, which surveys suggest have dampened business confidence and reduced exports, also remains in focus for policymakers. Meanwhile, new official figures showed wage growth for UK workers eased sharply in the three months to April and the unemployment rate increased, as employers feel the effects of higher costs. Rob Wood and Elliott Jordan-Doak, economists for Pantheon Macroeconomics, said a weaker jobs market 'will reassure the MPC that it can plan on further rate cuts', but added that 'one month's data is far from enough to allow the MPC to bin its 'gradual and careful' approach to easing monetary policy.' Bank chief economist Huw Pill, who is also an MPC member, said last month that he thought rates had been cut too quickly partly due to the risk of 'stubbornly strong' pay growth on overall inflation. New UK inflation figures for May will be released on Wednesday, while the US central bank is also widely expected to keep its interest rates on in to access your portfolio
Metro
15-06-2025
- Business
- Metro
Interest rates predicted to stay at 4.25%
The UK interest rates are set to remain the same amid worldwide uncertainty and rising inflation. The interest rate is set to stay at 4.25% following a jump in inflation in April. Interest rates determine how much money people have to pay on loans or mortgages from a bank or a credit card. This means home buyers eyeing up a property cannot expect the cost of borrowing to be slashed when the Bank of England decides on the interest rate figure on Thursday. The decision will be made by the Bank of England's monetary policy committee (MPC) next week. It has voted to cut the rates at every meeting previously since it started easing borrowing costs last August. The current rate has reduced from the earlier 5.25% at the height of the cost of living crisis. British consumers faced the highest prices in 2023 during the height of the cost-of-living crisis, which is still gripping the country. There was light at the end of the tunnel until inflation surged to its highest level for more than a year in April, the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show. To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation hit 3.5% in April, up from 2.6% in March. The ONS said the April figure should have been 3.4 due to an error in vehicle tax collection. Ellie Henderson, an economist for Investec, said monetary policy 'seems to be in a good position, allowing the Bank of England to wait and see how economic conditions and the international political backdrop evolve.' 'Ultimately, this is a highly uncertain time that requires a potentially nimble response from central banks, limiting any great foresight,' she said. 'Although the June decision might seem clear cut, how the MPC responds to the evolving economic backdrop thereafter much depends on the details of the world in which we find ourselves.' Markets are bracing for potential turmoil after the escalating tension between Israel and Iran, which saw missiles being fired at sites in both countries. More Trending The tension could have an impact on oil prices. Meanwhile, the UK job market is seeing wage growth ease heading into April, while the unemployment rate grew as employers faced higher costs. Rob Wood and Elliott Jordan-Doak, economists for Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the weaker job market could be a factor in reassuing the Bank of England's committee that 'it can plan on further rate cuts.' View More » But they said one month's fresh data 'is far from enough to allow the MPC to bin its gradual and careful approach to easing monetary policy.' Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@ For more stories like this, check our news page. MORE: 5 forgotten items in your attic that could be worth over £11,000 MORE: Credit card customers can save up to £1,679 with a simple debt 'spring clean' MORE: I've got 'number dyslexia' – but I'm a financial expert Your free newsletter guide to the best London has on offer, from drinks deals to restaurant reviews.
North Wales Chronicle
15-06-2025
- Business
- North Wales Chronicle
UK interest rates predicted to stay at 4.25% with Bank ‘nimble' amid uncertainty
Most economists think the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will opt to keep rates on hold when it meets on Thursday. The MPC has voted to cut rates at every other meeting since it started easing borrowing costs last August, from a peak of 5.25%. This has been possible while the rate of UK inflation has been steadily falling from the highs reached in 2023, at the peak of the cost-of-living crisis. However, inflation jumped to its highest level for more than a year in April, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation hit 3.5% in April, up from 2.6% in March. Since releasing the data, the ONS said that an error in vehicle tax data collected meant the April figure should have been 3.4%. Ellie Henderson, an economist for Investec, said monetary policy 'seems to be in a good position, allowing the Bank of England to wait and see how economic conditions and the international political backdrop evolve'. 'Ultimately, this is a highly uncertain time that requires a potentially nimble response from central banks, limiting any great foresight,' she said. 'Although the June decision might seem clear cut, how the MPC responds to the evolving economic backdrop thereafter much depends on the details of the world in which we find ourselves.' On Friday, oil prices were soaring after Israel launched an attack on Iran's nuclear programme, raising anxieties about possible disruption to the supply of the commodity in the Middle East. And ongoing uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's tariffs, which surveys suggest have dampened business confidence and reduced exports, also remains in focus for policymakers. Meanwhile, new official figures showed wage growth for UK workers eased sharply in the three months to April and the unemployment rate increased, as employers feel the effects of higher costs. Rob Wood and Elliott Jordan-Doak, economists for Pantheon Macroeconomics, said a weaker jobs market 'will reassure the MPC that it can plan on further rate cuts', but added that 'one month's data is far from enough to allow the MPC to bin its 'gradual and careful' approach to easing monetary policy.' Bank chief economist Huw Pill, who is also an MPC member, said last month that he thought rates had been cut too quickly partly due to the risk of 'stubbornly strong' pay growth on overall inflation. New UK inflation figures for May will be released on Wednesday, while the US central bank is also widely expected to keep its interest rates on hold.
Powys County Times
15-06-2025
- Business
- Powys County Times
UK interest rates predicted to stay at 4.25% with Bank ‘nimble' amid uncertainty
UK interest rates are set to stay at 4.25% after inflation jumped in April and policymakers remain 'nimble' to the evolving economic backdrop, economists have predicted. Most economists think the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will opt to keep rates on hold when it meets on Thursday. The MPC has voted to cut rates at every other meeting since it started easing borrowing costs last August, from a peak of 5.25%. This has been possible while the rate of UK inflation has been steadily falling from the highs reached in 2023, at the peak of the cost-of-living crisis. However, inflation jumped to its highest level for more than a year in April, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation hit 3.5% in April, up from 2.6% in March. Since releasing the data, the ONS said that an error in vehicle tax data collected meant the April figure should have been 3.4%. Ellie Henderson, an economist for Investec, said monetary policy 'seems to be in a good position, allowing the Bank of England to wait and see how economic conditions and the international political backdrop evolve'. 'Ultimately, this is a highly uncertain time that requires a potentially nimble response from central banks, limiting any great foresight,' she said. 'Although the June decision might seem clear cut, how the MPC responds to the evolving economic backdrop thereafter much depends on the details of the world in which we find ourselves.' On Friday, oil prices were soaring after Israel launched an attack on Iran's nuclear programme, raising anxieties about possible disruption to the supply of the commodity in the Middle East. And ongoing uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's tariffs, which surveys suggest have dampened business confidence and reduced exports, also remains in focus for policymakers. Meanwhile, new official figures showed wage growth for UK workers eased sharply in the three months to April and the unemployment rate increased, as employers feel the effects of higher costs. Rob Wood and Elliott Jordan-Doak, economists for Pantheon Macroeconomics, said a weaker jobs market 'will reassure the MPC that it can plan on further rate cuts', but added that 'one month's data is far from enough to allow the MPC to bin its 'gradual and careful' approach to easing monetary policy.' Bank chief economist Huw Pill, who is also an MPC member, said last month that he thought rates had been cut too quickly partly due to the risk of 'stubbornly strong' pay growth on overall inflation.
