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20-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Israeli Airstrikes Blunt Iranian Long-Range Ballistic Missile Threat (Updated)
Israel's campaign against Iranian ballistic missiles and their launchers appears to be having an effect. On Tuesday, Iran was able to fire 20 ballistic missiles. That is far fewer than in previous days, which had seen around 370 ballistic missiles unleashed at Israel in total, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). A spokesman for the IDF on Tuesday said this campaign has resulted in Iran pushing back its launchers further from Israel. Operation Rising Lion, Israel's effort to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and dismantling its military, is now in its fifth day. You can catch up on the war between Israel and Iran in our previous coverage here. 'We have delivered significant blows to the Iranian regime, and as such, they have been pushed back into central Iran. They are now focusing their efforts on conducting missile fire from the area of Isfahan,' said Brig Gen. Effie Defrin. The Israeli Air Force (IAF) added that on Tuesday, it 'conducted intelligence-based strikes on 12 missile launch sites and storage facilities. These missiles were aimed at Israeli civilians.' The IAF struck 12 missile launch sites and storage facilities in Iran aimed at Israeli civilians. We will continue to operate to defend our civilians. — Israeli Air Force (@IAFsite) June 17, 2025 All told, Israel said it has destroyed over 200 ballistic missile launchers, 'which is a significant portion of Iran's arsenal, according to the military,' Times of Israel reporter Emanuel Fabian stated on X. 'The strikes on the launchers have disrupted Iran's attempts to fire more missiles at Israel, but the IDF assesses that Iran still has the capability to launch attacks and cause devastating harm in Israel. ' 'We will remain prepared on defense. I assess that the Iranians will continue trying to harm Israel,' IDF Operations Directorate chief Maj. Gen. Oded Basiuk in a call with reporters. Israel's operation against Iran will not end until the IDF has removed the threat of Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missiles, the military says, but refuses to provide a timeline."We continue to strike nuclear targets to deepen the achievement, according to a plan and at… — Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) June 17, 2025 We previously reported that IDF said it had 'destroyed over 120 surface-to-surface missile launchers' since the current fighting began last Friday. 'This amounts to one-third of the surface-to-surface missile launchers possessed by the Iranian regime.' As air superiority is assured farther east over Iran, tankers are able to push in that direction, as well. This allows for two major enhancements to Israel's air war. First off, there is more loiter time for fighters that are tasked with hunting and destroying Iran's ground-mobile long-range ballistic missile systems. This is critical as this mission set is incredibly challenging even when done over smaller distances, but having to fly all the way from Israel to Iran just to get on station means there is far less time to actually find, fix and destroy the launchers, which can be parked almost anywhere. Having tanker assets closer means aircraft have more time to stay on station to search launchers or respond to real-time intelligence on the whereabouts of the launchers. Medium altitude, long-range drones are also likely assisting in this effort. The other part of this is that now fighters can deliver heavier direct attack payloads (bombs), and don't have to rely on less powerful standoff munitions to hit their targets, both due to more robust tanking closer to the target and the degraded air defense threat picture. We are now seeing much more powerful weapons dropped on targets in central Iran, for instance. This means Israel can go after hardened targets, such as missile caves, with bunker busters to destroy large stockpiles of the weapons, or at least trap them inside the caves and disable any fissures they can be launched from. Israeli Air Force F-16C ready to launch for a strike on Iran, armed with a pair of 2000lb BLU-109 bunker buster JDAM guided bombs. — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 16, 2025 חיל-האוויר ממשיך לתקוף כעת מטרות צבאיות במרכז איראן — Israeli Air Force (@IAFsite) June 16, 2025 These activities appear to have made a dent in Iran's ability to execute mass long-range missile launches. This is incredibly important as saturation attacks stress missile defenses to their breaking point, allowing 'leakers' to get through. Lower volume assaults are still a real danger but they can be more easily countered by Israeli and U.S. missile defenses. The situation is something of a war of attrition over great distances. The question is will missile interceptors run out before Iran's ability to launch its own missiles does? At this time it seems Iran is on the downside of that equation, but midcourse intercept capabilities are especially limited in quantity and degradation of that defensive layer would put more stress on the terminal defense layer, even if fewer missiles are fired. It is possible that Iran could be saving their weapons for a massive barrage, or to attack U.S. bases in a contingency, but clearly their capacity to do so is being reduced with every passing hour. Also, it's worth noting that this has to do with longer-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel, not Iran's more numerous and even easier to conceal shorter-range Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is claiming a missile barrage destroyed an Israeli intelligence center in the city of Herzilyia, according to the official Iranian Press TV media outlet. 'The logistical headquarters of the Israeli Military Intelligence Unit, known as 'Aman,' has been destroyed in the latest phase of Iran's retaliatory operation 'True Promise III,'' Press TV claimed. Israeli officials have yet to comment on these claims. 'Reports indicated that there was a direct hit in central Israel, but authorities have not yet confirmed this,' The Jerusalem Post reported. 'There was damage to property in central Israel, Israel Police added.' Videos posted online suggest that site and another Israeli intelligence headquarters were struck as part of a barrage of 20 missiles. WATCH: Iran targeted an AMAN base linked to Israel's 8200 intelligence unit with missile strikes. AMAN is Israel's military intelligence, and 8200 is a secretive unit focused on cyber and signals by Faytuks Network Geo team:1st Hit: 32.145833,… — Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) June 17, 2025 Iran hit the Aman Intelligence Logistics Center at Israel's Glilot base near Tel Aviv — a strategic facility housing Unit 8200 and other core intelligence sites were also among the targets. — Shah Faisal AfRidi (@Sfaisalafridi) June 17, 2025 The IAF also released video showing it striking several surface-to-air missile (SAM) launch sites and radars located in western Iran this morning. 'In recent days, fighter jets have carried out approximately five waves of strikes aimed at diminishing Iran's air defense capabilities, establishing the IAF's aerial superiority,' IDF claimed. 'This paved the way to Tehran and additional targets deep within Iran. At the same time, remotely piloted aircraft are identifying and neutralizing launchers and radars on the ground. So far, the IAF has over than 70 Iranian air defense missile batteries.' Many of those include road-mobile SAM systems, which pose a major threat to IAF aircraft as they can pop-up virtually anywhere at any time. עד כה הושמדו יותר מ-70 סוללות טילי הגנה אווירית של איראן.בימים האחרונים, מטוסי הקרב ביצעו כחמישה גלי תקיפה, שתכליתם פגיעה ביכולת ההגנה האווירית של איראן, תוך יצירת עליונות אווירית לחיל-האוויר. כך נסללה הדרך לטהראן וליעדים נוספים בעומק איראן. — Israeli Air Force (@IAFsite) June 17, 2025 כמו כן, חיל-האוויר תקף מהבוקר בהכוונת אגף המודיעין, מספר אתרי שיגור טילי קרקע-אוויר ומכ״מים שמוקמו במערב איראן.חיל-האוויר ממשיך לפעול בשמי איראן בהכוונת אגף המודיעין, לאיתור ולהשמדת משגרים המכוונים לעורף הישראלי. — Israeli Air Force (@IAFsite) June 17, 2025 Among the SAM sites hit by the IAF was also an Iranian HAWK/Mersad launcher in western Iran. Western Iran; an Israeli Air Force aircraft drops a guided bomb on an Iranian HAWK/Mersad surface to air missile launcher. -1 M192 launcher and 3x missiles. — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 17, 2025 As the war rages on, the U.S. Air Force is sending additional fighters to the region, which you can read more about in our story about that here. The fighter movements follow the arrival in Europe of more than two-dozen U.S. Air Force KC-135R and KC-46A tankers that flew across from the United States in recent days. There are also indications that the U.S. Navy is becoming more wary of a possible Iranian attack. Satellite imagery appears to show several Navy vessels leaving Salman Port in Bahrain. Less than 150 miles across the Persian Gulf from Iran, it would be a prime target for Tehran should it decide to lash out directly against the U.S. We reached out to the sea service and will update this story with any information they share. Almost all vessels have sortied out from Salman Port in Bahrain, a multinational naval base on the Persian Gulf. At least 1x US Navy LCS, 2x minesweepers, both of the Royal Bahraini Navy's Perry-class Frigates, and a roughly a dozen smaller vessels have put to sea. — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 17, 2025 Though the Pentagon last night said the U.S. is not taking any offensive actions against Iran amid the plus-up of U.S. forces in the region, Trump hinted that America may have some involvement beyond the defensive measures of swatting down drones and missiles with Navy destroyers, Air Force fighters and ground-based air and missile defense systems. 'We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran. Iran had good sky trackers and other defensive equipment, and plenty of it, but it doesn't compare to American made, conceived, and manufactured 'stuff,'' Trump said on Truth. 'Nobody does it better than the good ol' USA.' It is unclear what Trump meant. U.S. Central Command referred us to the White House for comment. We've reached out to the White House for more clarity and will update this story with any pertinent details provided. Trump also said he has no immediate plans to kill Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 'We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding,' Trump said in a post on his Truth Social network. 'He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don't want missiles shot at civilians or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!' Still, an Israeli official hinted Khamenei could be on the target list, according to a post on X by Reuters reporter Idrees Ali. Asked if Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was also a target, an Israeli military official said: "I think it wouldn't be smart for me to address future operations." — Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) June 17, 2025 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he is pushing for regime change. PM Netanyahu: "We are at a historic turning point – eliminating the Iranian empire that threatens many parts of the world" — Raylan Givens (@JewishWarrior13) June 17, 2025 Meanwhile, Israel's campaign against Iran's leaders continued. The IDF said for the second time since Operation Rising Lion began five days ago, it killed the Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff. This time it was Ali Shadmani, said to be Khamenei's closest military advisor. For the second time in 5 days— the IDF has eliminated Iran's War-Time Chief of Staff, the regime's top military Shadmani, Iran's senior-most military official and Khamenei's closest military advisor, was killed in an IAF strike in central Tehran, following precise… — Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) June 17, 2025 The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that new evidence indicates direct hits on Iran's underground uranium enrichment halls at Natanz, the site of Iran's main nuclear enrichment facility, following Israeli strikes on Friday. IAEA made that assessment ['b]ased on continued analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery collected after Friday's attacks.' IAEA said there were no changes to report at Esfahan and Fordow, two other enrichment sites hit by Israel in the opening phase of Operation Rising Lion. Iran: Based on continued analysis of high resolution satellite imagery collected after Friday's attacks, the IAEA has identified additional elements that indicate direct impacts on the underground enrichment halls at change to report at Esfahan and Fordow. — IAEA – International Atomic Energy Agency (@iaeaorg) June 17, 2025 We previously reported that the head of the IAEA on Monday said that there is a possibility of both radiological and chemical contamination at Natanz. However, the IAEA added that radiation levels outside the complex are currently normal. On the other hand, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal, a power loss after the attack on Natanz may have destroyed some of the roughly 14,000 underground centrifuges at the site. An Israeli official told the same publication that underground parts of the complex may have imploded, but this has not been verified, and this claim has been questioned by nuclear experts. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has said that the sudden loss of power at the Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran, resulting from Friday's airstrikes by the Israeli Air Force, may have destroyed some of the roughly 14,000 underground centrifuges, which are are fragile… — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 16, 2025 Isfahan was apparently struck again on Tuesday. Video emerged online showing explosions and smoke following an Israeli airstrike there. Explosions and smokes rising in Iran's Isfahan after an Israeli airstrike. — Clash Report (@clashreport) June 17, 2025 There is a huge challenge in trying to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon because, while infrastructure can be destroyed, the fissile material needed for a bomb is easily moved. 'Iran's 400 kilograms (880 pounds) of highly-enriched uranium could fit into as a few as 16 cylinders measuring 36-inches (91.4 centimeters) in height,' according to Bloomberg News. 'Even if Israel destroys Iran's enrichment infrastructure, the location of that material would still need to be verified.' Former CENTCOM commander, retired Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, suggested future strikes on Fordow. 'The only thing I can say about Fordow is that I wouldn't want to be within five kilometers of it at this point,' he said. BREAKING: Former U.S. Central Command Commander Kenneth McKenzie: "The only thing I can say about Fordow is that I wouldn't want to be within five kilometers of it at this point."What does he know that we don't? — Vivid. (@VividProwess) June 17, 2025 Iran's Cybersecurity Command has prohibited government officials and security teams from using equipment connected to communications systems, 'including phones, smart watches, portable computers, etc.,' the official Iranian Fars news agency reported. 'Dear people, be sure to minimize the use of smart devices connected to the Internet and take the necessary precautions.' It is unclear what sparked the warning, but it is worth noting that during Israel's conflict with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah organization of Lebanon, there was a major attack in September 2024 using exploding cell phones and pagers that targeted thousands. You can read more about that here. IRAN'S CYBER SECURITY COMMAND BANS THE USE OF ALL CONNECTED DEVICES FOR OFFICIALS AND THEIR SECURITY DETAIL – FARS NEWS -Reuters News — Parisa Hafezi (@PHREUTERS) June 17, 2025 Meanwhile, a pro-Israel hacking group says it attacked a major Iranian bank, causing widespread outages, Axios reported. 'The attack would mark the first major cyberattack on critical infrastructure' during this war, the publication noted. 'Predatory Sparrow, an Israeli hacking group, said today that it is behind a series of cyberattacks against Iran's Bank Sepah.' BREAKING: Iran National Cyber Security Command says Israel launched 'massive cyber war' against country's digital infrastructure. — Clash Report (@clashreport) June 17, 2025 With heightened concerns that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, images of flames engulfing a ship in the region posted on social media yesterday caused a great deal of worry and speculation. However, it turns out there was a collision between two vessels, a maritime security expert told The War Zone early Tuesday morning. It was unrelated to any military action, U.K. Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said in its analysis. The tanker Front Eagle was involved in a collision with the tanker Adalynn off the coast of the United Arab Emirates, the official told us, adding that navigational error was the most likely cause. 'Front Eagle, which is managed by Anglo-Eastern, was fully laden at the time of the collision and bound for the Chinese port of Zhoushan, while Adalynn, which appears on the Lloyd's List dark fleet list, had just departed the anchorage in ballast condition,' Lloyd's List explained. New footage of the tanker Adalynn ablaze in the Gulf of Oman after a severe collision with the tanker Front Eagle last night. Impact area is clearly visible and violently burning. Most of the superstructure is ablaze as well. — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 17, 2025 The White House released a statement Tuesday morning it says shows how U.S. President Donald Trump has been clear about his vow that Iran will never possess nuclear weapons. The statement provides 16 instances where Trump has made comments to that effect since returning to the White House and several made on the campaign trail. However, as The New York Times noted, Trump's messaging has been 'vacillating from a hands-off approach to embracing diplomacy to at times suggesting that he was weighing further U.S. involvement.' 'The contradictory comments have left a trail of confusion as Israelis, Iranians, and the broader Middle East try to understand whether the biggest conflict between Israel and Iran in history would escalate further and whether Mr. Trump, long opposed to foreign wars, would plunge the United States into one,' the publication explained. 'It's very puzzling,' Shira Efron, director of research at Israel Policy Forum, a New York-based research group, told the Times. 'You're seeing him say one thing and then another.' On Friday, the first day of the war, Mr. Trump initially called Israel's attacks 'excellent' and 'very successful,' but he also said that he believed a diplomatic solution between Israel and Iran was possible. 'There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end,' the president said. 'Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left.' The following day, Mr. Trump recounted a call with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, saying that both he and Mr. Putin said the battle between Israel and Iran should end. And on Sunday, he reinforced his stated position by saying Israel and Iran should make a deal. President Trump Has Always Been Clear: Iran Cannot Have a Nuclear Weaponhttps:// — U.S. State Dept – Near Eastern Affairs (@StateDept_NEA) June 17, 2025 Update: 5:36 PM Eastern – A U.S. official gave us some clarification on Trump's social media post about airspace over Iran. 'There are no U.S. aircraft over Iran, and we are not acting in any offensive capacity,' the U.S. official told The War Zone. The official could not confirm additional aircraft movements and referred us back to a statement Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued yesterday that he directed additional U.S. assets to the CENTCOM region. Update: 6:03 PM Eastern – Iran has launched another barrage of missiles at Israel. Officials estimate that there were at least 15 in this volley, with no immediate reports of injuries. A short while later, Israel's Home Front Command told citizens they could leave protected spaces. Medics are responding to reports of several missile impacts in central Israel, following Iran's latest David Adom says it has not received any immediate reports of least 15 missiles were launched from Iran in the attack, according to preliminary IDF… — Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) June 17, 2025 Iranian officials say the attacks will continue. Iran's IRGC "True Promise-3" operation spokesperson stated tonight that the 10th wave of this operation targeted Israel's air bases from which Israeli attacks to Iran has stated the attacks will be continuous, multi-layered and gradual. — Mehdi H. (@mhmiranusa) June 17, 2025Video emerged online claiming to show the failed launch of an Israeli interceptor. The failed launch of an Israeli interceptor missile during the latest Iranian attack. — Status-6 (Military & Conflict News) (BlueSky too) (@Archer83Able) June 17, 2025 Tehran too has its air defenses working as Israel launches another wave of airstrikes. Meanwhile, air defense is doing its best in Tehran. — Clash Report (@clashreport) June 17, 2025Israeli effectors working against Iranian missiles attacking Tel Aviv can be seen in the following video. Footage of Israeli interceptors knocking down Iranian ballistic missiles over Tel Aviv tonight. — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 17, 2025 Due to the ongoing security concerns, the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, which was closed today, will remain closed through Friday. US embassy closed from Wed through Friday — Laura Rozen (@lrozen) June 17, 2025 This is a developing story. Stay with The War Zone for updates. Contact the author: howard@
Yahoo
20-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Iran Just Used Ballistic Missiles With Cluster Warheads To Strike Israel
Iran fired at least one ballistic missile with a warhead containing multiple submunitions as part of a particularly destructive barrage on Israel earlier today. Ballistic missiles loaded with cluster munitions present additional complications for defending forces, especially when it comes to intercept attempts in the terminal phase of flight. Readers can first get caught up on recent developments in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict in our reporting here. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Home Front Command says the warhead on the missile in question split open at an altitude of approximately 23,000 feet (seven kilometers) and released an estimated 20 submunitions, Emanuel Fabian of The Times of Israel posted on X. The submunitions, each of which contained some 5.5 pounds (2.5 kilograms) of explosives, were scattered across an area approximately 10 miles (16 kilometers) in diameter. Whether or not this is the first time Iran has employed a ballistic missile with a cluster munitions payload in strikes on Israel is unclear. The cluster bombs are estimated to have 2.5kg of explosives each. — Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) June 19, 2025 At the time of writing, the exact type of Iranian missile that carried the cluster munition warhead is unclear. Iranian media outlets linked to the country's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) did share a video showing the launch of a Khorramshahr-4 medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) earlier this morning, prompting speculation about its use. The Khorramshahr-4 is also sometimes called the Kheibar (not to be confused with Iran's unrelated Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile), which is a reference to a seventh-century victory by Muslim forces over Jewish tribes. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had also made a callback to that battle in the context of the current conflict in a social media post on Tuesday. However, the Khorramshahr-4/Kheibar footage that is now circulating widely online is from a test in 2023, and there do not appear to be explicit claims from Iran about its use. As of yet, no other evidence has emerged of Iranian forces having employed these missiles, with or without cluster warheads, in its retaliatory strikes on Israel. This is old testing footage released back in May 2023. — Fabian Hinz (@fab_hinz) June 19, 2025 The potential combat debut of the Khorramshahr-4/Kheibar is something experts and observers have been keeping an eye out for, as it is assessed to be one of the most capable longer-range ballistic missiles in Iran's inventory. The original Khorramshahr first emerged publicly in 2017, and it is assessed to be derived, at least in part, from the North Korean Hwasong-10, also known as the BM-25 Musudan. It is a liquid-fuel medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) with a claimed range of around 1,250 miles (2,000 kilometers). Iran has unveiled additional Khorramshahr variants since then, the most recent of which is the Khorramshahr-4/Kheibar, which made its public debut in 2023. At that time, Khorramshahr-4 was said to still have a maximum range of 1,250 miles (2,000 kilometers), but the possibility has been raised that it could have a longer reach. This is based in part on the underlying Hwasong-10/BM-25 design being an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), which the U.S. military has assessed in the past to have a maximum range in excess of 1,860 miles (3,000 kilometers). Khorramshahr variants could exchange some payload weight for extra range. Khorramshahr-4 is understood to have the heaviest payload of any of Iran's ballistic missiles, with it said to be able to carry a warhead weighing up to 3,300 pounds. Iran has also claimed in the past that Khorramshahr variants can carry multiple, smaller warheads. Video: #Iran successfully test-fires new ballistic missileDetails: — Press TV (@PressTV) September 23, 2017 In the past, Iran has also shown cluster munition warheads with designs that are in line, at least externally, with ones used on older ballistic missiles, especially variants and derivatives of its Shahab-3 liquid-fueled MRBM. The original Shahab-3 was based on North Korea's Nodong series of missiles, which were themselves developed from the Soviet Scud family. For the first time, a SUB-MUNITION from an Iranian BM was found in Israel. It is not yet clear on what type of missile it was installed. — Tal Inbar (@inbarspace) June 19, 2025 Khamenei is looking at a sub-munition for installation in missiles. Sub munitions were found today after an Iranian BM was hitting central Israel. — Tal Inbar (@inbarspace) June 19, 2025 'Iranian media has for years advertised these sorts of cluster warheads as being able to 'rain' down bomblets against a wide target when dispersed at a certain altitude,' Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) think tank, told TWZ. Iran has explicitly said it has fired Emad and Ghadr MRBMs, both of which are evolutions of the Shahab-3 design, at Israel in the past week. There is also clear independent evidence of this, visible in post-strike wreckage, including from the strikes earlier today. Video of the 14th wave of the Iranian ballistic missiles launch toward Israel (Operation True Promise-3) today, June 19, 2025. — Mehdi H. (@mhmiranusa) June 19, 2025 Image on left is a liquid propellant rocket engine, almost certainly from a missile in the Shahab-3 family.A copy of the North Korean Nodong engine, it is closely related to the engine used in the Soviet Scud-B. — Michael Duitsman (@DuitsmanMS) June 19, 2025 Emad and Ghadr (sometimes also written Qadr) entered service in the mid-2010s and are both understood to be able to reach targets up to around 1,056 and 1,118 miles (1,700 to 1,800 kilometers) away. Iran has also developed an extended-range version of Ghadr that is said to have a maximum reach of 1,242 miles (2,000 kilometers). In addition, Emad and Ghadr both feature maneuverable re-entry vehicles that detach from the main body of the missile in the terminal phase of flight, but they are generally assessed to be primarily focused on improving accuracy rather than evading enemy intercept attempts. Any kind of maneuvering re-entry vehicle does still present at least some degree of additional complexity for defending forces. Adding cluster munition warheads to the mix would increase the potential of Iranian ballistic missiles scoring hits on area targets, and increase the overall area a single missile could target at once. On a basic practical level, adding this capability to missiles like Emad and Ghadr makes sense given the relatively low accuracy they are understood to currently offer when fitted with unitary warheads. '[Sam Lair] and I estimated the 'circular error probable' (CEP) of the most accurate Shahab-3 variant, the Emad, demonstrated in Iran's March 2024 missile strike [on Israel]. We estimated the CEP at ~1.2 km [just under three-quarters of a mile],' Jeffery Lewis, head of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, wrote in a post today on X. 'That means whatever a Shahab-3 hits, Iran was most likely aiming at something else.' .@sam_lair and I estimated the "circular error probable" (CEP) of the most accurate Shahab-3 variant, the Emad, demonstrated in Iran's March 2024 missile strike. We estimated the CEP at ~1.2 km. That means whatever a Shahab-3 hits, Iran was most likely aiming at something else. — Dr. Jeffrey Lewis (@ArmsControlWonk) June 19, 2025 'The warhead can likely be married with several [missile types], but to strike Israel they all have to be MRBMs,' FDD's Taleblu also told TWZ. 'In this, instance the missile body is less important than the warhead.' As noted, ballistic missiles loaded with cluster munitions present additional challenges for defenders, especially if they cannot be intercepted before their warheads split open at higher altitudes. A very high altitude opening would also mean a more indiscriminate strike, which could be used to try to inflict as much damage as possible over a very wide target area, like a city. Typical cluster munitions are designed to release their payload at a specific height to saturate a more defined zone. Layering ballistic missiles with cluster munition payloads in larger salvos with other types carrying unitary warheads might also help create a decoy-like effect to further overwhelm an opponent's defenses. With this in mind, while the specific circumstances are still unknown, it is worth noting that the interception rate during Iran's particularly destructive missile barrage on Israel this morning was notably lower than what had been seen in previous salvos. A variety of other factors beyond the inclusion of cluster munition warheads could have played a role, as well. Video from Tel Aviv — Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) June 19, 2025 As part of its retaliatory strikes on Israel so far, Iran also says it has been using other ballistic missiles, including Sejjil, Haj Qassem, Kheibar Shekan, and Fattah-1 types, that further add to the complexity of the overall threat picture. Sejjil is a two-stage MBRM that is among the heavier payload designs in Iranian inventory. The Haj Qassem, Kheibar Shekan, and Fattah-1 are all solid fuel MRBMs. Compared to liquid-fueled ballistic missiles, solid-fuel types are generally faster and easier to launch, as well as safer to handle, reducing the total available time an opponent has to spot and preemptively target them before launch. Authorities in Iran have also explicitly touted these three missiles, all of which were unveiled in the past five years, as offering high terminal maneuverability and/or high peak speeds specifically intended to reduce their vulnerability to missile defense interceptors. The emergence of the Fattah-1 in 2023 was already seen as particularly significant, despite Iran's dubious description of it as a 'hypersonic' weapon. IRGC announces that the ballistic missiles used tonight in 12th wave of the True-Promise-3 operation were from the type Sejjil. — Mehdi H. (@mhmiranusa) June 18, 2025 New online analysis: 'Israel's attack and the limits of Iran's missile strategy' — Fabian Hinz (@fab_hinz) June 18, 2025 'To put the significance of the Fattah in context, it is better to put aside Iran's labeling of the system as a 'hypersonic missile' as the term can obscure more than it illuminates. Many surface-to-surface missiles achieve speeds within the atmosphere that cross the hypersonic threshold, that is greater than Mach 5,' Fabian Hinz, a research fellow for Defense and Military Analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, wrote in 2023. 'It is not speed alone that distinguishes the two main types of weapons known as hypersonic weapons – hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) and hypersonic cruise missiles (HCMs) – but also the ability to manoeuvre significantly during atmospheric flight, including at considerable cross-range.' These are points TWZ regularly highlights, and you can read more about the unique capabilities that highly maneuverable hypersonic weapons offer here. 'Fattah is neither of these two classes of weapon, but a medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM),' but instead has a 'second stage [that] incorporates the warhead, aerodynamic controls and a small solid-propellant motor with a moveable nozzle for thrust vector control (TVC)' that 'resembles a maneuverable re-entry vehicle (MaRV) rather than a HGV.,' Hinz continued. 'Both MaRVs and HGVs are capable of atmospheric maneuvering at hypersonic speeds. A HGV's higher aerodynamic lift characteristics allow it to maneuver during mid-course flight, while a MaRV only does so for a short part of the flight in the terminal phase.' 'Iran attempted to overcome this limitation by mating a small TVC rocket motor to a MaRV, enabling exo-atmospheric maneuvering,' he added. 'The IRGC maintains that this arrangement will help the missile evade both endo- and exo-atmospheric interceptors. It also potentially offers improved accuracy over longer ranges.' Amid all of this, worrisome questions are already starting to emerge about the stocks of various types of anti-missile interceptors available to Israel, as well as U.S. forces in and around the country that have been helping to shoot down incoming Iranian threats since last week. As TWZ wrote in some of our previous coverage of the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict: 'The situation is something of a war of attrition over great distances. The question is will missile interceptors run out before Iran's ability to launch its own missiles does? At this time it seems Iran is on the downside of that equation, but midcourse intercept capabilities are especially limited in quantity and degradation of that defensive layer would put more stress on the terminal defense layer, even if fewer missiles are fired.' At the same time, Israel looks to have had significant success just in the past week in degrading Iranian ballistic missile capabilities. On Monday, Israel claimed it had destroyed a third of Iran's long-range surface-to-surface missile launchers. Though Iran continues to fire ballistic missiles at Israel, and they continue to cause casualties and physical damage, the size and frequency of the salvos have been significantly smaller than what many expected to see in the event of the conflict that has now erupted. Approx. 25 fighter jets struck over 40 missile infrastructure components directed toward Israel this morning, including missile storage sites and military operatives of the Iranian Regime. A loaded and ready-to-launch "Emad" missile launcher was also struck overnight. — Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) June 18, 2025 What did the IAF accomplish in Iran last night? 20+ surface-to-surface missiles were dismantled minutes before they were to be launched toward Israel's home front. Approx. 100 military targets were struck in Isfahan, central Iran. Around 50 fighter jets and aircraft… — Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) June 16, 2025 Iran is also likely to be keeping at least some stockpiles of ballistic missiles, including more capable types, in reserve should the conflict further expand in scale and cope, especially if the U.S. military were to take a more direct offensive role. More capable missiles may be increasingly required for strikes on Israel as Iranian forces are compelled to move further east to reduce their vulnerability to IDF strikes. Iran's new use of ballistic missiles loaded with cluster munitions underscores that it still has capabilities that have not yet been fully brought to bear that could add new dimensions to the ongoing conflict. Howard Altman contributed to this story. Contact the author: joe@
NDTV
20-06-2025
- Politics
- NDTV
Iran Fires Cluster Bomb-Bearing Missiles At Israel As Conflict Enters 8th Day
Iran fired at least one missile at Israel that scattered small bombs with the aim of increasing civilian casualties, the Israeli military said on Thursday, the first reported use of cluster munitions in the seven-day-old war. Israeli military officials provided no further details. Israeli news reports quoted the Israeli military as saying the missile's warhead split open at an altitude of about 4 miles (7 km) and released around 20 submunitions in a radius of around 5 miles (8 km) over central Israel. One of the small munitions struck a home in the central Israeli town of Azor, causing some damage, Times of Israel military correspondent Emanuel Fabian reported. There were no reports of casualties from the bomb. Cluster bombs are controversial because they indiscriminately scatter submunitions, some of which can fail to explode and kill or injure long after a conflict ends. The Israeli military released a graphic as a public warning of the dangers of unexploded ordnance. "The terror regime seeks to harm civilians and even used weapons with wide dispersal in order to maximize the scope of the damage," Israel's military spokesperson, Brigadier General Effie Defrin, told a briefing. Iran's mission to the United Nations and Israel's embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to requests for comment. "They are egregious weapons with their wide-area destruction, especially if used in a civilian populated area and could add to the unexploded ordnance left over from conflicts," said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association advocacy group. Noting that Iranian missiles can be imprecise, he said that Tehran should know that cluster munitions "are going to hit civilian targets rather than military targets." Iran and Israel declined to join a 2008 international ban on the production, stockpiling, transfer and use of cluster bombs that has been signed by 111 countries and 12 other entities. After extensive debate, the US in 2023 supplied Ukraine with cluster munitions for use against Russian occupation forces. Kyiv says Russian troops also have fired them. The three countries declined to join the Convention Against Cluster Munitions.
AsiaOne
20-06-2025
- Politics
- AsiaOne
Israel says Iran fired cluster bomb-bearing missile, World News
Iran launched a missile at Israel on Thursday (June 19) that scattered small bombs with the aim of increasing civilian casualties, the Israeli military and its Washington embassy said, the first reported use of cluster munitions in the seven-day-old war. "Today, the Iranian Armed Forces fired a missile that contained cluster submunitions at a densely populated civilian area in Israel," the embassy said in an email to Reuters that did not identify the area. "Cluster weapons are designed to disperse over a large area and maximise the chances of a harmful strike," the email continued. "Iran unlawfully fired deliberately at civilian population centres, and seeks to maximise the damage to civilians in them by using wide-dispersal munitions." Iran's mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Israeli news reports quoted the Israeli military as saying the missile's warhead split open at an altitude of about 4 miles (7 km) and released around 20 submunitions in a radius of around 5 miles (8km) over central Israel. One of the small munitions struck a home in the central Israeli town of Azor, causing some damage, Times of Israel military correspondent Emanuel Fabian reported. There were no reports of casualties from the bomb. Cluster bombs are controversial because they indiscriminately scatter submunitions, some of which can fail to explode and kill or injure long after a conflict ends. The Israeli military released a graphic as a public warning of the dangers of unexploded ordnance. "The terror regime seeks to harm civilians and even used weapons with wide dispersal in order to maximise the scope of the damage," Israel's military spokesperson, Brigadier General Effie Defrin, told a briefing. Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association advocacy group, said, "They are egregious weapons with their wide-area destruction, especially if used in a civilian populated area and could add to the unexploded ordnance left over from conflicts." Noting that Iranian missiles can be imprecise, he said that Tehran should know that cluster munitions "are going to hit civilian targets rather than military targets." Iran and Israel declined to join a 2008 international ban on the production, stockpiling, transfer and use of cluster bombs that has been signed by 111 countries and 12 other entities. After extensive debate, the US in 2023 supplied Ukraine with cluster munitions for use against Russian occupation forces. Kyiv says Russian troops also have fired them. The three countries declined to join the Convention Against Cluster Munitions. [[nid:719285]]
New Straits Times
20-06-2025
- Politics
- New Straits Times
Israel accuses Iran of using cluster bombs in latest strike
TEL AVIV: Iran launched a missile at Israel on Thursday that scattered small bombs with the aim of increasing civilian casualties, the Israeli military and its Washington embassy said, the first reported use of cluster munitions in the seven-day-old war. "Today, the Iranian Armed Forces fired a missile that contained cluster submunitions at a densely populated civilian area in Israel," the embassy said in an email to Reuters that did not identify the area. "Cluster weapons are designed to disperse over a large area and maximise the chances of a harmful strike," the email continued. "Iran unlawfully fired deliberately at civilian population centres, and seeks to maximise the damage to civilians in them by using wide-dispersal munitions." Iran's mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Israeli news reports quoted the Israeli military as saying the missile's warhead split open at an altitude of about 4 miles (7km) and released around 20 submunitions in a radius of around 5 miles (8km) over central Israel. One of the small munitions struck a home in the central Israeli town of Azor, causing some damage, Times of Israel military correspondent Emanuel Fabian reported. There were no reports of casualties from the bomb. Cluster bombs are controversial because they indiscriminately scatter submunitions, some of which can fail to explode and kill or injure long after a conflict ends. The Israeli military released a graphic as a public warning of the dangers of unexploded ordnance. "The regime seeks to harm civilians and even used weapons with wide dispersal in order to maximise the scope of the damage," Israel's military spokesperson, Brigadier General Effie Defrin, told a briefing. Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association advocacy group, said, "They are egregious weapons with their wide-area destruction, especially if used in a civilian populated area and could add to the unexploded ordnance left over from conflicts." Noting that Iranian missiles can be imprecise, he said that Tehran should know that cluster munitions "are going to hit civilian targets rather than military targets." Iran and Israel declined to join a 2008 international ban on the production, stockpiling, transfer and use of cluster bombs that has been signed by 111 countries and 12 other entities. After extensive debate, the US in 2023 supplied Ukraine with cluster munitions for use against Russian occupation forces. Kyiv says Russian troops also have fired them. The three countries declined to join the Convention Against Cluster Munitions. --REUTERS
