Latest news with #EmilKastehelmi
Newsweek
22-07-2025
- Politics
- Newsweek
Russia Moves in on Pokrovsk in What Would Be Huge Win in Ukraine War
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Russian forces have advanced towards Pokrovsk it has been reported, as one Ukrainian sergeant described how "things are going terribly wrong" for Kyiv's forces fighting to hold on to the logistics hub in the Donetsk region. Russian forces had entered Pokrovsk following earlier Russian advances south of the city, according to reports. Military analyst Emil Kastehelmi told Newsweek Tuesday that Russian gains on the eastern flank of the city endangered its defense but there was no immediate threat of encirclement, although the situation for Ukrainian forces could deteriorate quickly. Newsweek has contacted the Ukrainian and Russian defense ministries for comment. This image from June 19, 2025 shows the evacuation of civilians from Pokrovsk, Donetsk region by the forces of the National Police of Ukraine. This image from June 19, 2025 shows the evacuation of civilians from Pokrovsk, Donetsk region by the forces of the National Police of It Matters A city with a pre-war population of 60,000, Pokrovsk is located west of Avdiivka which fell to Russian forces in February 2024 and is a critical hub in Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast. Key to Moscow's goal of controlling the Donbas region, Pokrovsk's railroad and road connections mean that falling to Russia would complicate resupply efforts for Ukrainian troops and could enable Russian forces to push toward Dnipro to the east. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Monday Russian advances northeast of Pokrovsk are aimed at enveloping the city and creating the base of a salient to attack Ukraine's fortress belt from the south. What To Know Ukrainian military personnel said that the initial Russian infantry incursion into Pokrovsk took place on July 17, according to Ukrainska Pravda. Russian forces advanced south of Pokrovsk and were reinforcing groupings northeast of the city, according to the ISW. By Monday evening, Ukrainian OSINT analysts DeepState reported that a mop-up operation against Russian sabotage groups in Pokrovsk was ongoing. DeepState said that Russian forces had exploited a Ukrainian brigade's depleted infantry and a muddled battlefield assessment to infiltrate the city via Zvirove. The crisis for Ukrainian forces was dealt with by their 155th Separate Mechanized Brigade and the 68th Jaeger Brigade but Russia intended to dig in and await reinforcements as a hunt continue for Russian sabotage groups, DeepState said. Emil Kastehelmi, a military analyst with the Black Bird Group, told Newsweek Russian forces had made gains especially on the eastern flank of Pokrovsk which are beginning to pose a significant issues for the city's defense. He said that supply lines are becoming increasingly threatened by Russian drones, but there is still a relatively large troop concentration in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad-Novoekonomichne-area. The gap between the Russian "pincers" is still a bit less than 13 miles, meaning there's no immediate threat of encirclement, "however the situation can deteriorate quickly, if the eastern flank isn't stabilized," he said. Small Russian groups seem to be able to penetrate their way into Pokrovsk too, indicating some gaps in the Ukrainian lines it seems but it appears that Russian forces have not consolidated any positions inside the city yet, he added. What People Are Saying Dmitro Shchipko, Staff Sergeant, Ukrainian Armed Forces on X: "Very... very bad need every RT, like, comment, and donation for the Pokrovsk front. Things are going terribly wrong." Emil Kastehelmi, military analyst with the Black Bird Group: "Russians have recently made more gains especially on the eastern flank of Pokrovsk, where the latest advances are beginning to pose a significant issues for the defense of the city." What Happens Next Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said Monday there had been a successful strike against Russian saboteurs trying to break into Pokrovsk as the fight for the hub continues. The ISW said Russia's redeployment of elements of two brigades to the area indicates that Moscow might intensify assaults against Pokrovsk. Meanwhile, Kastehelmi said that Ukrainian forces will have to careful not to face attrition in their units on the most critical parts of the front as they try to hold onto Pokrovsk.
Yahoo
26-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
In Finnish border town, worry mounts over Russian military build-up
In a Finnish town a stone's throw from Russia, Moscow's reported military build-up on its side of the border is raising concerns about the Nordic country's security, locals told AFP. Finland, which dropped decades of military non-alignment to join NATO in 2023, shares a 1,340-kilometre (830-mile) border with Russia. Recent satellite images obtained by media outlets including the New York Times, Finnish public broadcaster Yle and Swedish broadcaster SVT have revealed an expansion of Russian military infrastructure in various locations near the Finnish border. Speculation is rife that Russia could be preparing for future military action against Finland once its war in Ukraine is over. Moscow has repeatedly warned Finland of repercussions since it joined NATO after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. "We have now noticed some new organisational changes, such as new divisions which are beginning to appear near Finland's borders," military expert Emil Kastehelmi, of Finland-based Black Bird Group which analyses Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the Russian forces near NATO's eastern border, told AFP. "Russia continues to build, prepare and train in the vicinity of Finland's and NATO's eastern border," he said. Kastehelmi said the Russian activity was a reaction to Finland's NATO accession, as well as an attempt to step up recruitment of soldiers and a result of the re-establishment of the Leningrad Military District near the border last year. In May, the Finnish Defence Forces told AFP that "Russia is building more infrastructure to be able to bring in more troops after the war (in Ukraine) is over". Finnish Defence Minister Antti Hakkanen told AFP that Helsinki was "closely monitoring and assessing Russia's activities and intentions" together with its allies. - Preparing for different scenarios - In the small border town of Kuhmo, around 600 kilometres north of Helsinki, 49-year-old Samuli Pulkkinen was selling seasonal berries and vegetables outside a grocery store. He said locals were increasingly worried about another war with Russia -- the last one, in 1939-1940, saw Finland cede 11 percent of its territory. "After a long period of peace, everyone is of course now talking about war and the threat of war," Pulkkinen told AFP. "It's really sad that it's as if this time of peace is already over, that there is a constant threat that something bad will happen or will happen in the next few years." "I myself think it's very likely," he added ominously. Kuhmo, with a population of less than 10,000, is located some 60 kilometres from the closed Vartius border crossing. The proximity to Russia has always influenced Finland's eastern border regions. Many locals have family on both sides of the border, and tourism and cross-border trade were important sources of income before 2022. "I'm not worrying too much, because living with fear is challenging in one's daily life," said a 67-year-old man who asked to remain anonymous. "But thinking about the future generations, children and grandchildren, I worry about their future." - Closed border - Finland is building a 200-kilometre border fence aimed at preventing Russia from "instrumentalising migrants" across its border to destabilise Finland. The Nordic country shut its border with Russia in December 2023 until further notice, after the arrival of around 1,000 migrants without visas. Helsinki said the surge was orchestrated by Russia -- a claim Moscow denied. Tomi Tirkkonen, deputy commander of the Kainuu border guard district which includes Kuhmo, said the border guard was monitoring activity along the eastern border on a daily basis, and was "very well updated about the situation on the Russian side." "There is no reason to be scared, the situation is completely under the control of the Finnish border guard," he told AFP during a visit to the Vartius border crossing, located amidst lush forest. "We are prepared for the many different kinds of scenarios," Tirkkonen said, unable to divulge "operational and classified" details. Finland has beefed up its military investments and preparedness since joining NATO, and has urged citizens to increase their civil preparedness. - 'No immediate threat' - The Nordic country backs NATO's five percent spending target and has launched a reform of its defence forces to tackle the security threat. Pirjo Rasinkangas, who was visiting relatives in Kuhmo, said she supported Finland's decision to shut the border and build the border fence, saying it gave her a "sense of safety". "I am still trying to be a bit positive and think that it won't get worse at least," she said. "Of course we discuss what comes next with my family. Because it feels like there are such bleak prospects cropping up all the time," the 54-year-old added. Analyst Kastehelmi said the increased Russian military activity posed no immediate threat to Finland's security nor indicated Russia was preparing a military attack. Finnish President Alexander Stubb assured in a CNN interview in May that Russia's military bases along the border were nothing new and "there is a normal build-up" of troops there. "The most important question is what happens when the war in Ukraine ends," Kastehelmi said. "It (would be) a very worrying sign if, for example, Russia doesn't discharge or demobilise soldiers after the active military operations in Ukraine end." ank/po/giv
Int'l Business Times
26-06-2025
- Politics
- Int'l Business Times
In Finnish Border Town, Worry Mounts Over Russian Military Build-up
In a Finnish town a stone's throw from Russia, Moscow's reported military build-up on its side of the border is raising concerns about the Nordic country's security, locals told AFP. Finland, which dropped decades of military non-alignment to join NATO in 2023, shares a 1,340-kilometre (830-mile) border with Russia. Recent satellite images obtained by media outlets including the New York Times, Finnish public broadcaster Yle and Swedish broadcaster SVT have revealed an expansion of Russian military infrastructure in various locations near the Finnish border. Speculation is rife that Russia could be preparing for future military action against Finland once its war in Ukraine is over. Moscow has repeatedly warned Finland of repercussions since it joined NATO after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. "We have now noticed some new organisational changes, such as new divisions which are beginning to appear near Finland's borders," military expert Emil Kastehelmi, of Finland-based Black Bird Group which analyses Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the Russian forces near NATO's eastern border, told AFP. "Russia continues to build, prepare and train in the vicinity of Finland's and NATO's eastern border," he said. Kastehelmi said the Russian activity was a reaction to Finland's NATO accession, as well as an attempt to step up recruitment of soldiers and a result of the re-establishment of the Leningrad Military District near the border last year. In May, the Finnish Defence Forces told AFP that "Russia is building more infrastructure to be able to bring in more troops after the war (in Ukraine) is over". Finnish Defence Minister Antti Hakkanen told AFP that Helsinki was "closely monitoring and assessing Russia's activities and intentions" together with its allies. In the small border town of Kuhmo, around 600 kilometres north of Helsinki, 49-year-old Samuli Pulkkinen was selling seasonal berries and vegetables outside a grocery store. He said locals were increasingly worried about another war with Russia -- the last one, in 1939-1940, saw Finland cede 11 percent of its territory. "After a long period of peace, everyone is of course now talking about war and the threat of war," Pulkkinen told AFP. "It's really sad that it's as if this time of peace is already over, that there is a constant threat that something bad will happen or will happen in the next few years." "I myself think it's very likely," he added ominously. Kuhmo, with a population of less than 10,000, is located some 60 kilometres from the closed Vartius border crossing. The proximity to Russia has always influenced Finland's eastern border regions. Many locals have family on both sides of the border, and tourism and cross-border trade were important sources of income before 2022. "I'm not worrying too much, because living with fear is challenging in one's daily life," said a 67-year-old man who asked to remain anonymous. "But thinking about the future generations, children and grandchildren, I worry about their future." Finland is building a 200-kilometre border fence aimed at preventing Russia from "instrumentalising migrants" across its border to destabilise Finland. The Nordic country shut its border with Russia in December 2023 until further notice, after the arrival of around 1,000 migrants without visas. Helsinki said the surge was orchestrated by Russia -- a claim Moscow denied. Tomi Tirkkonen, deputy commander of the Kainuu border guard district which includes Kuhmo, said the border guard was monitoring activity along the eastern border on a daily basis, and was "very well updated about the situation on the Russian side." "There is no reason to be scared, the situation is completely under the control of the Finnish border guard," he told AFP during a visit to the Vartius border crossing, located amidst lush forest. "We are prepared for the many different kinds of scenarios," Tirkkonen said, unable to divulge "operational and classified" details. Finland has beefed up its military investments and preparedness since joining NATO, and has urged citizens to increase their civil preparedness. The Nordic country backs NATO's five percent spending target and has launched a reform of its defence forces to tackle the security threat. Pirjo Rasinkangas, who was visiting relatives in Kuhmo, said she supported Finland's decision to shut the border and build the border fence, saying it gave her a "sense of safety". "I am still trying to be a bit positive and think that it won't get worse at least," she said. "Of course we discuss what comes next with my family. Because it feels like there are such bleak prospects cropping up all the time," the 54-year-old added. Analyst Kastehelmi said the increased Russian military activity posed no immediate threat to Finland's security nor indicated Russia was preparing a military attack. Finnish President Alexander Stubb assured in a CNN interview in May that Russia's military bases along the border were nothing new and "there is a normal build-up" of troops there. "The most important question is what happens when the war in Ukraine ends," Kastehelmi said. "It (would be) a very worrying sign if, for example, Russia doesn't discharge or demobilise soldiers after the active military operations in Ukraine end." Finland is building a 200-kilometre border fence AFP Kuhmo, with a population of less than 10,000, is located some 60 kilometres from the closed Vartius border crossing AFP Finland has beefed up its military investments and preparedness since joining NATO AFP
France 24
26-06-2025
- Politics
- France 24
In Finnish border town, worry mounts over Russian military build-up
Finland, which dropped decades of military non-alignment to join NATO in 2023, shares a 1,340-kilometre (830-mile) border with Russia. Recent satellite images obtained by media outlets including the New York Times, Finnish public broadcaster Yle and Swedish broadcaster SVT have revealed an expansion of Russian military infrastructure in various locations near the Finnish border. Speculation is rife that Russia could be preparing for future military action against Finland once its war in Ukraine is over. Moscow has repeatedly warned Finland of repercussions since it joined NATO after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. "We have now noticed some new organisational changes, such as new divisions which are beginning to appear near Finland's borders," military expert Emil Kastehelmi, of Finland-based Black Bird Group which analyses Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the Russian forces near NATO's eastern border, told AFP. "Russia continues to build, prepare and train in the vicinity of Finland's and NATO's eastern border," he said. Kastehelmi said the Russian activity was a reaction to Finland's NATO accession, as well as an attempt to step up recruitment of soldiers and a result of the re-establishment of the Leningrad Military District near the border last year. In May, the Finnish Defence Forces told AFP that "Russia is building more infrastructure to be able to bring in more troops after the war (in Ukraine) is over". Finnish Defence Minister Antti Hakkanen told AFP that Helsinki was "closely monitoring and assessing Russia's activities and intentions" together with its allies. Preparing for different scenarios In the small border town of Kuhmo, around 600 kilometres north of Helsinki, 49-year-old Samuli Pulkkinen was selling seasonal berries and vegetables outside a grocery store. He said locals were increasingly worried about another war with Russia -- the last one, in 1939-1940, saw Finland cede 11 percent of its territory. "After a long period of peace, everyone is of course now talking about war and the threat of war," Pulkkinen told AFP. "It's really sad that it's as if this time of peace is already over, that there is a constant threat that something bad will happen or will happen in the next few years." "I myself think it's very likely," he added ominously. Kuhmo, with a population of less than 10,000, is located some 60 kilometres from the closed Vartius border crossing. The proximity to Russia has always influenced Finland's eastern border regions. Many locals have family on both sides of the border, and tourism and cross-border trade were important sources of income before 2022. "I'm not worrying too much, because living with fear is challenging in one's daily life," said a 67-year-old man who asked to remain anonymous. "But thinking about the future generations, children and grandchildren, I worry about their future." Closed border Finland is building a 200-kilometre border fence aimed at preventing Russia from "instrumentalising migrants" across its border to destabilise Finland. The Nordic country shut its border with Russia in December 2023 until further notice, after the arrival of around 1,000 migrants without visas. Helsinki said the surge was orchestrated by Russia -- a claim Moscow denied. Tomi Tirkkonen, deputy commander of the Kainuu border guard district which includes Kuhmo, said the border guard was monitoring activity along the eastern border on a daily basis, and was "very well updated about the situation on the Russian side." "There is no reason to be scared, the situation is completely under the control of the Finnish border guard," he told AFP during a visit to the Vartius border crossing, located amidst lush forest. "We are prepared for the many different kinds of scenarios," Tirkkonen said, unable to divulge "operational and classified" details. Finland has beefed up its military investments and preparedness since joining NATO, and has urged citizens to increase their civil preparedness. 'No immediate threat' The Nordic country backs NATO's five percent spending target and has launched a reform of its defence forces to tackle the security threat. Pirjo Rasinkangas, who was visiting relatives in Kuhmo, said she supported Finland's decision to shut the border and build the border fence, saying it gave her a "sense of safety". "I am still trying to be a bit positive and think that it won't get worse at least," she said. "Of course we discuss what comes next with my family. Because it feels like there are such bleak prospects cropping up all the time," the 54-year-old added. Analyst Kastehelmi said the increased Russian military activity posed no immediate threat to Finland's security nor indicated Russia was preparing a military attack. Finnish President Alexander Stubb assured in a CNN interview in May that Russia's military bases along the border were nothing new and "there is a normal build-up" of troops there. "The most important question is what happens when the war in Ukraine ends," Kastehelmi said. "It (would be) a very worrying sign if, for example, Russia doesn't discharge or demobilise soldiers after the active military operations in Ukraine end." © 2025 AFP
Yahoo
10-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
As Russia inches closer to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, new Ukrainian region might soon be at war
Moscow said its troops had crossed into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and were conducting offensive operations in the region, a claim Kyiv quickly denied as 'Russian disinformation.' Russian troops have been pushing toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast for months, trying to solidify the southern flank to capture Pokrovsk and the remaining parts of the adjacent Donetsk Oblast. Western military experts who spoke to the Kyiv Independent said it was clear that Russian troops would eventually penetrate the southeastern region. But they didn't expect either side to throw 'a significant amount of forces' in this sector, as the capture of Donetsk Oblast remains Moscow's main objective. Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst at the Finland-based Black Bird Group, confirmed that geolocation shows Russian troops entered Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in recent days. Russian troops will likely advance 'at least somewhat' deeper in the coming months, though it won't change the overall dynamic of the front line, he added. Kastehelmi believes that Russian troops could try advancing northwest from the southern flank of Pokrovsk to encircle the city that is already penetrated from the southern and eastern sides. 'The Russians probably have understood that if they want to make a proper encirclement threat, they need to widen the flanks and then continue operations near Pokrovsk,' Kastehelmi told the Kyiv Independent. The Russian Defense Ministry said on June 8 that its troops were pushing forward in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast — a region adjacent to Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts but have thus not seen combat actions. It added that the Russian military's 90th Guards Tank Division units had reached the western border of Donetsk Oblast and were thrusting forward into the industrial Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The Ukrainian military immediately denied the claim, saying that the fighting continued inside Donetsk Oblast, calling Russia's claims 'disinformation.' The Ukrainian monitoring project DeepState has put the proximity of Russian troops to the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border at about two kilometers, yet painting that distance between the regional border and the alleged position of Russian troops as no man's land. The Kyiv Independent requested a comment to the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces but has not heard back in time of publication. Even if militarily not as significant, the Russian penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast would mean yet another Ukrainian region would be now a warzone. It could also help strengthen the Russian negotiation position as the U.S. continues to push both sides to hold peace talks to end the war at all costs. "If they [russians] find a weak spot, they will try to exploit it.' Russia had begun its long-expected offensive in April but has only made limited gains since then, besides opening a new front in the northeastern Sumy Oblast by occupying a number of border villages there. Kastehelmi from the Black Bird Group said that the Ukrainian defense of Pokrovsk would be compromised if Russian troops are able to widen their flanks, which would enable them to bring their support elements forward. 'It can mean that they may be able in the summer to threaten the remaining supply routes to the city in a way which makes it even more dangerous for Ukrainian units,' Kastehelmi said. Kastehelmi added that it would be 'an operational success' for Moscow if it is able to first expand its flank westward toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and then begin attacking northward, while also building on the eastern flank. But he stressed that Russian troops have not been the best at coordinating attacks, even if it looks 'doable' on paper. Jakub Janovsky, a Prague-based military analyst at the Oryx open-source project tracking Ukrainian and Russian equipment losses, said that it likely won't make 'any difference' if Russian troops advanced a kilometer or two into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. He added that Russia appears to be continuing to rely heavily on small infantry group assaults, either on foot or motorcycles, thus decreasing the use of Soviet-era BMP fighting vehicles or tanks. 'It seems more likely that Russia will focus on Donetsk Oblast,' Janovsky told the Kyiv Independent. 'But it's entirely possible that if they find a weak spot, they will try to exploit it.' Read also: Inside Russia, calls for peace come with conditions — and Kremlin talking points We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
