Latest news with #EnergyPrices
Bloomberg
3 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Oil Prices Caught Between a $70 Summer and Growing Surplus Fears
Oil traders are grappling with a tension — there's a growing chorus of warnings about the market weakening later this year and into 2026, but for now prices are holding strong near $70 a barrel. France's TotalEnergies SE last week warned the market is facing abundant supply as the OPEC+ group unwinds output curbs, even as slowing global growth weighs on demand. Norway's Equinor ASA said its new Johan Castberg field is operating at full pelt, with a Brazilian offshore asset starting soon, a reminder of additional barrels expected from outside the producer group.
Yahoo
22-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Hungary's Orban urges EU to drop Russian energy ban amid US-Iran conflict
By Gergely Szakacs BUDAPEST (Reuters) -Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on Sunday urged the European Union to take a proposed ban on Russian energy off the agenda due to an expected rise in energy prices following the US bombing of Iran. The European Commission on Tuesday proposed a legally binding ban on EU imports of Russian gas and liquefied natural gas by the end of 2027, using legal measures to ensure the plan cannot be blocked by EU members Hungary and Slovakia. The proposals set out how the bloc plans to fix into law its vow to end decades-old energy relations with Europe's former top gas supplier after Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. "We must contend with a further increase in the price of energy," Orban said in a Facebook video after a meeting of his Defence Council that discussed the possible security and economic implications of the Iran-Israel conflict. "This is a serious threat. Therefore, we must remove in Brussels the regulations and bans on Russian energy," he said. "We have enough problems given the negative impact of the Iran-Israel war on energy prices." Earlier on Sunday, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto held phone calls with the foreign ministers of Israel, Russia, Bahrain and Jordan to discuss the Middle East crisis. Slovakia and Hungary continue to receive Russian gas and oil and have argued with Ukraine over its decision to halt gas flows from the east through its territory at the end of 2024. The EU has imposed sanctions on most Russian oil imports but not on gas due to opposition from Slovakia and Hungary, which maintain closer ties with Moscow. Analysts have said higher oil prices, which have surged since Israel began attacking Iran a week ago, could add to inflationary pressures in the import-reliant central European region.
Reuters
22-06-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Hungary's Orban urges EU to drop Russian energy ban amid US-Iran conflict
BUDAPEST, June 22 (Reuters) - Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on Sunday urged the European Union to take a proposed ban on Russian energy off the agenda due to an expected rise in energy prices following the US bombing of Iran. The European Commission on Tuesday proposed a legally binding ban on EU imports of Russian gas and liquefied natural gas by the end of 2027, using legal measures to ensure the plan cannot be blocked by EU members Hungary and Slovakia. The proposals set out how the bloc plans to fix into law its vow to end decades-old energy relations with Europe's former top gas supplier after Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. "We must contend with a further increase in the price of energy," Orban said in a Facebook video after a meeting of his Defence Council that discussed the possible security and economic implications of the Iran-Israel conflict. "This is a serious threat. Therefore, we must remove in Brussels the regulations and bans on Russian energy," he said. "We have enough problems given the negative impact of the Iran-Israel war on energy prices." Earlier on Sunday, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto held phone calls with the foreign ministers of Israel, Russia, Bahrain and Jordan to discuss the Middle East crisis. Slovakia and Hungary continue to receive Russian gas and oil and have argued with Ukraine over its decision to halt gas flows from the east through its territory at the end of 2024. The EU has imposed sanctions on most Russian oil imports but not on gas due to opposition from Slovakia and Hungary, which maintain closer ties with Moscow. Analysts have said higher oil prices, which have surged since Israel began attacking Iran a week ago, could add to inflationary pressures in the import-reliant central European region.
Yahoo
21-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Middle East tensions put investors on alert, weighing worst-case scenarios
By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Lewis Krauskopf NEW YORK (Reuters) -Investors are mulling a host of different market scenarios should the U.S. deepen its involvement in the Middle East conflict, with the potential for ripple effects if energy prices skyrocket. They have honed in on the evolving situation between Israel and Iran, which have exchanged missile strikes, and are closely monitoring whether the U.S. decides to join Israel in its bombing campaign. Potential scenarios could send inflation higher, dampening consumer confidence and lessening the chance of near-term interest rate cuts. This would likely cause an initial selloff in equities and possible safe-haven bid for the dollar. While U.S. crude prices have climbed some 10% over the past week, the S&P 500 has been little changed as of yet, following an initial drop when Israel launched its attacks. However, if attacks were to take out Iranian oil supply, "that's when the market is going to sit up and take notice," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth. "If you get disruption to supply of oil product on the global marketplace, that is not reflected in today's WTI price and that is where things get negative," Hogan said. The White House said on Thursday President Donald Trump would decide on U.S. involvement in the conflict in the next two weeks. Analysts at Oxford Economics modeled three scenarios, ranging from a de-escalation in the conflict, a complete shutdown in Iranian production, and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, "each with increasingly large impacts on global oil prices," the firm said in a note. In the most severe case, global oil prices jump to around $130 per barrel, driving U.S. inflation near 6% by the end of this year, Oxford said in the note. "Although the price shock inevitably dampens consumer spending because of the hit to real incomes, the scale of the rise in inflation and concerns about the potential for second-round inflation effects likely ruin any chance of rate cuts in the U.S. this year," Oxford said in the note. OIL IMPACT The biggest market impact from the escalating conflict has been restricted to oil, with oil prices soaring on worries that the Iran-Israel conflict could disrupt supplies. Brent crude futures have risen as much as 18% since June 10, hitting a near 5-month high of $79.04 on Thursday. The accompanying rise in investors' expectations for further near-term volatility in oil prices has outpaced the rise in volatility expectations for other major asset classes, including stocks and bonds. But other asset classes, including stocks, could still feel the knock-on effects of higher oil prices, especially if there is a larger surge in oil prices if the worst market fears of supply disruptions come true, analysts said. "Geopolitical tensions have been mostly ignored by equities, but they are being factored into oil," Citigroup analysts wrote in a note. "To us, the key for equities from here will come from energy commodity pricing," they said. STOCKS UNPERTURBED U.S. stocks have so far weathered rising Middle East tensions with little sign of panic. A more direct U.S. involvement in the conflict could, however, spook markets, investors said. Financial markets may be in for an initial selloff if the U.S. military attacks Iran, with economists warning that a dramatic rise in oil prices could damage a global economy already strained by Trump's tariffs. Still, any pullback in equities might be fleeting, history suggests. During past prominent instances of Middle East tensions coming to a boil, including the 2003 Iraq invasion and the 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities, stocks initially languished but soon recovered to trade higher in the months ahead. On average, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% in the three weeks following the start of conflict, but was 2.3% higher on average two months following the conflict, according to data from Wedbush Securities and CapIQ Pro. DOLLAR WOES An escalation in the conflict could have mixed implications for the U.S. dollar, which has tumbled this year amid worries over diminished U.S. exceptionalism. In the event of U.S. direct engagement in the Iran-Israel War, the dollar could initially benefit from a safety bid, analysts said. "Traders are likely to worry more about the implicit erosion of the terms of trade for Europe, the UK, and Japan, rather than the economic shock to the US, a major oil producer," Thierry Wizman, Global FX & Rates Strategist at Macquarie Group, said in a note. But longer-term, the prospect of US-directed 'nation-building' would probably weaken the dollar, he said. "We recall that after the attacks of 9/11, and running through the decade-long US presence in Afghanistan and Iraq, the USD weakened," Wizman said.
Reuters
20-06-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Rupee gains slightly to cap week clouded by Middle East conflict
MUMBAI, June 20 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee ended modestly higher on Friday but fell for a second consecutive week as the conflict between Iran and Israel remained the key driver for global markets and kept energy prices elevated, pressuring oil-sensitive currencies in Asia. The rupee ended at 86.5850, up from its close of 86.7225 in the previous session. It was down nearly 0.6% on the week. While escalating tensions in the Middle East kept risk appetite under pressure for much of the week, markets found some relief on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump pushed back a decision on U.S. military involvement in the Israel-Iran war. Brent crude oil prices declined more than 2% on the day after rallying to a five-month high of $79.04 per barrel earlier in the week. Most equity gauges in Asia logged gains, with India's benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex (.BSESN), opens new tab and Nifty 50 (.NSEI), opens new tab, rising 1.3% each. Analysts pointed out that oil prices and the Middle East conflict would likely remain the key drivers for FX markets in the near term. On the day, the dollar index was a tad lower at 98.6 but was on course for a weekly gain. "The FX market has taken the somewhat lower probability of the U.S. intervening in Iran already this weekend as an opportunity to re-enter USD short positions, especially against European currencies," ING Bank said in a note. "This confirms that a constant flow of oil-positive, risk-negative geopolitical news is needed to keep the dollar supported," the note added. For the rupee, meanwhile, traders will also gauge the extent of portfolio inflows that a large IPO scheduled next week will draw. Sizeable inflows could help the rupee hold ground above the 86.50 mark while a sharp rise in crude oil prices could build momentum for a fall below 87, a trader at a foreign bank said.
