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CTV News
3 days ago
- Business
- CTV News
Ontario mortgage delinquencies on the rise and could climb higher still, experts warn
A real estate sign is displayed in front of a house in Toronto in this file photo. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Evan Buhler Mortgage delinquencies appear to be on the rise in both Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area and the numbers could get worse as Canada navigates choppy economic waters, experts say. According to data prepared for the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) by Equifax Canada, mortgage delinquencies rose to 0.22 per cent in Ontario for the first quarter of this year. That's up from 0.15 per cent in the first quarter of 2024 and 0.09 per cent in the first quarter of 2023. In Toronto, the mortgage delinquency rate hit 0.23 per cent for the first quarter of 2025. That compares to 0.14 per cent for the first quarter of 2024 and 0.08 per cent for the first quarter of 2023. Specifically, the data tracks the volume of 90-day mortgage delinquencies, which include defaults, but can also refer to late payments. While the rate might not be terribly bad by historical standards, mortgage delinquencies haven't been that high in Toronto since early 2013 and Ontario hasn't seen levels this high since 2016. Equifax reported in February that more than 11,000 mortgages in Ontario recorded a missed payment in the last quarter of 2024. The firm warned that Ontarians are struggling with their mortgages and that mortgage holders are struggling with other forms of debt as well. 'It's concerning,' says Maria Solovieva, an economist at TD Bank. Interest rates, uncertainty are factors Experts say there are two main reasons why mortgage delinquencies are on the rise now. First, the province is seeing a wave of mortgage renewals by people who bought homes with rock-bottom borrowing costs during the pandemic and are now having to renew at higher rates. But in addition to low interest rates, people also had forced savings during lockdown, Solovieva points out. 'So they had these extra funds available for them to put towards repayment,' she says. In that sense, it was predictable that some people might have difficulty making their payments now. 'There's definitely a rise in (delinquencies) associated with coming back to normalcy,' Solovieva says. Jordan Nanowski, CMHC's lead economist for the Greater Toronto Area, agrees. 'I think a rise in delinquencies is expected given that there's a lot of mortgage renewals taking place, so (that) reflects higher mortgage costs,' Nanowski says. The second thing driving up delinquencies, he says, is economic uncertainty finding its way into the labour market. 'There's a lot of economic uncertainty that in itself is already manifesting certain negative impacts,' Nanowski says. 'Especially in certain industries, we're seeing some job cuts and that could be contributing as well. So it's kind of a confluence of the two.' While the data is not clear on this point, Nanowski says the softening of the condo market could well be playing a role in delinquencies if people looking to offload those properties find they are unable to get their money out because of the weaker market. 'There definitely could be individuals that are, let's say, a little bit more tied to their property and if they have issues making payments and they're looking to sell, it's not that easy to sell,' he says. 'So in that type of environment, they might be more likely to be in arrears for longer. So market dynamics are definitely playing a factor there.' Ontario vulnerable as trade war remains unresolved Both Solovieva and Nanowski agree that going forward, Ontario could be in for a rough ride if the ongoing trade war with the United States, sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats, hits the job market. 'We do expect that Ontario specifically will be hit by the trade war a little bit more,' Solovieva says. 'The unemployment rate is already at 7.9 and 7.8 per cent between the two months in May and in June (respectively), so it's larger than average in Canada.' Nationally, unemployment sat at 6.9 per cent in June. 'The economic uncertainty and impacts of potential tariffs could impact employment for a lot of individuals, and that could increase mortgage arrears,' Nanowski says. He points out areas that support industries targeted by the U.S. for tariffs are particularly vulnerable. 'Windsor is probably the most exposed. Same with case Kitchener, Cambridge, Waterloo, St. Catharines, Niagara, Hamilton for steel,' Nanowski says. 'Those are places that mortgage arears might pop up a bit higher if trade tensions and economic uncertainty persist, right? And we're already seeing a bit of impact there. You're seeing some job losses in certain sectors that are more unique to that area.' CMHC could not provide the real number of mortgage delinquencies in Ontario. However, of the nearly 7 million outstanding mortgages in Canada, 0.22 per cent were in arrears in the fourth quarter of last year, according to the corporation. That translates into 15,259 mortgages across the country. Nanowski adds that while the diversified labour market within the Greater Toronto Area is something of a bulwark around Toronto, the GTA is still vulnerable in some places, such as Oshawa, where thousands of jobs are tied to the auto industry. But while there's reason for concern, Solovieva points out that for the time being, mortgage delinquencies still sit at less than a quarter of a percent. 'So it just tells you that, yes, there is strain, especially in those very not affordable regions,' she says. 'But it's not something that will basically, at this point, be a breaking point.' Are you having difficulty making your mortgage payments? CP24 and CTV News Toronto want to hear from you. Email us at torontonews@ with your name, general location and phone number in case we want to follow up. Your comments may be used in a CP24 or CTV News story.
Yahoo
10-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Posthaste: Canadian businesses in key sectors showing signs of strain not seen since 2009
Canadian businesses are showing early signs of distress under the turmoil Donald Trump's tariff war has thrust on the economy. Equifax Canada's business credit report out today shows delinquencies are rising for businesses across the country, with the rate in some sectors reaching levels not seen since the financial crisis in 2009. More than 309,000 businesses, or 11 per cent of credit active businesses in Canada, missed at least one payment in the first quarter, an almost 15 per cent increase from the year before, said Equifax. Some sectors are showing more strain than others, particularly those dependent on consumer spending. The delinquency rate for accommodation and food services rose to almost 17 per cent. 'This seems to be a classic ripple effect,' said Jeff Brown, Equifax Canada's head of commercial solutions. 'Equifax data suggests when households pull back, restaurants, retailers and local service providers feel it first — and hardest. This can then travel up the supply chain, where everyone from manufacturers to transport companies feels its effects.' A earlier report by the credit reporting agency last month found that more than 1.4 million consumers missed at least one payment during the quarter. Another sign of trouble is lower credit demand. Businesses applying for new credit in the first quarter dropped 6 per cent from the year before, which Equifax said suggests growing caution. Businesses are also tending to pay their suppliers first and their bank or financial institutions last. Growth in delinquency rates on loans and lines of credit were higher than on money owed to suppliers. 'Businesses are paying suppliers, but with little to spare, they may be missing banking obligation payments. This may signal that businesses are strategically recalibrating, with many businesses prioritizing supplier relationships to keep operations moving,' said Brown. Delinquency rates are up nationally but some provinces and industries 'are flashing red,' the report said. Ontario and British Columbia had the highest financial trade arrears, up almost 19 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively. But Quebec and Prince Edward Island showed a spike in industrial trade delinquencies, up 26.6 per cent and 15.9 per cent, respectively, suggesting stress in the credit relationships with suppliers. Several sectors too showed higher increases in missed payments than the national average. Agriculture's delinquency rate rose by almost 20 per cent, transportation & warehousing was up 19 per cent and real estate up 17 per cent. to get Posthaste delivered straight to your Minister Mark Carney vowed to boost defence spending yesterday so that Canada meets its NATO target this year, five years ahead of schedule. Canada, which last year spent just 1.4 per cent of gross domestic product on defence, has lagged NATO's 2 per cent target and most other NATO members, as today's chart shows. Carney had promised during his campaign to meet the target by 2030 or earlier. The government's pledge, however, may still prove too little, too late. Monday's announcement came just ahead of a major NATO meeting in the Netherlands later this month in which allied nations are expected to adopt a plan to hike the spending target to five per cent of GDP — a level Canada has not reached since the 1950s. The Global Energy Show starts today in Calgary today with people from 100 countries expected to attend. The head of OPEC will deliver the keynote address at the conference which will also feature chief executives from major Canadian and international energy companies and several political leaders, including Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. Today's Data: United States NFIB small business optimism Earnings: JM Smucker Co. Who is the typical first-time home buyer in Canada and how much money do they need? Here's why the Bank of Canada is rolling the economic dice if it stays on sidelines any longer Why it's a 'smart' time to buy a home Canadians have a huge share of their wealth wrapped up in real estate and many hope their property will help fund their retirement. But financial adviser Jason Heath warns homeowners banking on a turnaround in home prices to be cautious. If you are valuing your home today based on the 2022 peak that was 10 per cent or 20 per cent higher, your retirement plan may not be realistic, he writes. Read more Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at wealth@ with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we'll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we'll keep your name out of it, of course). Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister's Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won't want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada's lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily. Visit the Financial Post's YouTube channel for interviews with Canada's leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more. Today's Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg. Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@ Why the Canadian dollar is going up when the economy is going down Just when you thought Toronto's condo market couldn't get any worse … Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
10-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Debt Pressure Building Up for Canadian Businesses
- Delinquencies climb, credit demand dips, and regional cracks deepen - Equifax® Canada Market Pulse — Q1 2025 Quarterly Business Credit Trends and Insights Report TORONTO, June 10, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- After a cautiously optimistic end to 2024, Canadian businesses seem to have entered 2025 with trepidation. According to the Equifax® Canada Q1 2025 Business Credit Trends and Insights Report, delinquencies are rising for businesses across the country and credit demand is slowing, while key sectors are showing early signs of distress — especially those tied closely to consumer trends, with delinquency rates not seen since 2009. The Canadian Small Business Health Index1, a benchmark of business credit health and business sentiment, dropped to 99.3 in Q1 2025, a 1.5 per cent decline from the previous quarter. While still slightly above its year-ago level, the dip signals a loss of momentum following gains made late last year. Alongside rising delinquencies, Equifax data shows a noticeable slowdown in credit demand, as fewer businesses applied for new credit in Q1 2025, a decline of six per cent when compared to the same time period in 2024. Lower new originations and growing balances could signal growing caution among small business owners, many of whom could be choosing to manage existing debt rather than take on new risk, even with interest rates easing and inflation stabilizing. "The Canadian Small Business Health Index shows that business sentiment is down three per cent in Q1 2025 compared to the previous quarter," noted Jeff Brown, Head of Commercial Solutions at Equifax Canada. "The early months of 2025 are revealing the pressures the business landscape could be facing. Many businesses are caught in a squeeze from both slowing household consumption on one hand and growing business debt stress on the other." Credit Warning Signs Widen In Q1 2025, over 309,000 businesses — 11.3 per cent of credit active businesses — missed at least one credit payment. This marks a 14.6 per cent year-over-year increase in business delinquencies and highlights the growing financial strain across sectors. _______________________________ 1 The Canadian Small Business Health Index provides a holistic view of Canadian business conditions by combining data collected by Equifax Canada, Business Development Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada and the Bank of Canada. Accommodation & Food Services and Retail Sector Missing PaymentsThe impact is particularly acute in Accommodation & Food Services, where missed payments jumped to 16.9 per cent, and in Retail Trade, where the rate hit 13.2 per cent. Both sectors are likely suffering from weak consumer spending, rising operating costs, and growing household debt levels. Average monthly consumer credit card spend2 per cardholder fell by 107 dollars during Q1, dropping to the lowest level since March 2022. 'This seems to be a classic ripple effect,' said Brown. 'Equifax data suggests when households pull back, restaurants, retailers and local service providers feel it first — and hardest. This can then travel up the supply chain, where everyone from manufacturers to transport companies feel its effects.' Businesses Prioritize Suppliers Over LendersDelinquency trends suggest a shift in how businesses are managing limited cash flow. The 60+ day delinquency rate for financial trade (loans, lines of credit) rose from 3.0 per cent to 3.4 per cent, a 15.5 per cent increase year-over-year. In contrast, industrial trade delinquencies (typically money owed to suppliers) rose more modestly, from 5.5 per cent to 5.7 per cent. 'Businesses are paying suppliers, but with little to spare, they may be missing banking obligation payments. This may signal that businesses are strategically recalibrating, with many businesses prioritizing supplier relationships to keep operations moving,' added Brown. Regional Flashpoints in PEI, Quebec, Ontario and British Colombia While delinquencies are rising nationwide, some provinces and industries are flashing red: Ontario and British Columbia led the country in financial trade arrears, up 18.8 per cent and 19.9 per cent year-over-year, respectively. Quebec and Prince Edward Island posted unusually sharp increases in industrial trade delinquencies, up 26.6 per cent and 15.9 per cent year-over-year, respectively, signaling localized stress in supplier-based credit relationships. Certain sectors are showing strain Sectors showing double-digit increases in year-over-year missed payments include Agriculture (+19.5 per cent), Transportation & Warehousing (+19.3 per cent), Real Estate (+17.0 per cent), Finance & Insurance (+16.4 per cent), and Manufacturing (+10.2 per cent). 'Businesses across the country and across a variety of industries are showing increased vulnerabilities as broader economic uncertainty continues,' noted Brown. 'Businesses will continue to need resilience and careful planning to navigate this economic environment.' _______________________________ 2 Average monthly consumer credit card spend comparisons have been adjusted for inflation. Province Analysis - 60+ days Delinquency Rates (Account Level) Province Delinquency Rate : Financial Trades (Q1 2025) Delinquency Rate Change: Financial Trades(Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2024) Delinquency Rate: Industrial Trades (Q1 2025) Delinquency Rate Change: Industrial Trades (Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2024) Ontario 3.71% 18.85% 5.63% 4.97% Quebec 3.49% 13.31% 4.59% 26.55% Nova Scotia 2.47% 1.06% 6.19% 8.05% New Brunswick 2.82% 5.17% 4.73% -6.22% PEI 2.37% 0.34% 4.45% 15.90% Newfoundland 2.71% -1.15% 4.90% -12.19% Eastern Region 3.58% 16.67% 5.21% 12.51% Alberta 3.49% 8.90% 7.07% -13.30% Manitoba 3.10% 16.43% 4.54% -1.60% Saskatchewan 2.79% -0.11% 6.47% 3.36% British Columbia 2.94% 19.93% 6.56% -10.66% Western Region 3.17% 13.00% 6.50% -9.74% Canada 3.44% 15.50% 5.69% 3.52% * Based on Equifax data for Q1 2025 About EquifaxAt Equifax (NYSE: EFX), we believe knowledge drives progress. As a global data, analytics, and technology company, we play an essential role in the global economy by helping financial institutions, companies, employers, and government agencies make critical decisions with greater confidence. Our unique blend of differentiated data, analytics, and cloud technology drives insights to power decisions to move people forward. Headquartered in Atlanta and supported by nearly 15,000 employees worldwide, Equifax operates or has investments in 24 countries in North America, Central and South America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific region. For more information, visit Contact: Andrew FindlaterSELECT Public Relationsafindlater@ 444-1197 Angie AndichEquifax Canada Media RelationsMediaRelationsCanada@ in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Calgary Herald
05-06-2025
- Business
- Calgary Herald
‘Great Renewal' drives Alberta's mortgage market
The 'Great Renewal' is underway across Canada, including Alberta, with significant increases in mortgage activity for renewals and refinancing. Article content A recent report from Equifax Canada from late May noted that mortgage activity soared in the first quarter of 2025 (ending March 31), increasing nearly 58 per cent year over year. Most activity was for refinancing and renewals as millions of Canadians who got a low-rate mortgage 2020 are now renewing at higher rates. Article content Article content Article content Renewal and refinancing — which involves seeking a new mortgage term before the existing one expires — were highest in Canada's priciest provinces: British Columbia, Ontario and Alberta. Article content Article content As well, Equifax found about 28 per cent of activity involved borrowers switching lenders. About half of those moved were among mortgage holders moving among the Big Five banks — CIBC, RBC, BMO, TD and Scotia — which highlights intense competition among the largest mortgage providers in the nation, Equifax added. Article content Even new mortgages for purchase saw an increase in the first quarter of the year. Equifax noted that first-time homebuyers saw a 40 per cent year-over-year increase. That said, affordability continued to be challenging. Article content What's more, financial stress remained an issue for Canadian households. Mortgage delinquencies increased led by Ontario and B.C. Both saw significant percentage jumps year over year for missed mortgage payments, up nearly 72 per cent and more than 33 per cent, respectively. Article content
Time of India
28-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Credit cards are feeding young Canadians more than actual food; As wages stagnate and rent soars, debt becomes the only thing they can afford
Young Canadians are increasingly struggling with debt as the cost of living rises and job prospects remain uncertain. Delinquency rates among 18-25 year olds have surged, particularly on credit cards, fueled by unemployment, stagnant wages, and a lack of financial literacy. Experts advise budgeting, debt repayment strategies, and seeking financial guidance to avoid the debt trap. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Rise in unemployment Stagnant job market Lack of financial literacy Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads How to dodge the debt trap? As the cost of living continues to rise and job prospects remain uncertain, an increasing number of young Canadians are finding themselves ensnared in a cycle of debt they struggle to data from Equifax Canada reveals a troubling trend, individuals aged 18 to 25 have experienced a 15.1 percent increase in delinquency rates compared to the previous 90-day or more delinquencies on credit cards for this age group have surged by 21.7 percent, reaching a delinquency rate of 5.38 percent, significantly higher than the overall population's rate of 3.76 percent."Being able to balance the cost of living with debt levels is more difficult and more challenging, which is why through the numbers we are seeing that stress come through," said Kathy Catsiliras, vice-president of analytical consulting for Equifax Canada. "They are finding it more challenging to stay current on their debt obligation, married with the fact we're seeing unemployment rates increase."Canada's unemployment rate rose to 6.9 percent in April, according to Statistics Canada. This uptick in unemployment, coupled with stagnant wages, has left many young Canadians without sufficient income to manage their some are resorting to credit cards or loans to cover essential expenses like food and challenges are further compounded by a stagnating job market, partly attributed to the ongoing trade tensions with the United States. Due to President Donald Trump 's tariff policies, some companies have had to scale back hiring plans or lay off Terrell, a personal finance expert with NerdWallet, highlighted the multifaceted pressures facing young Canadians:"All of these factors combined can definitely make for a challenging financial situation in which your credit card is being used to bridge the gap, especially if you're someone who's living paycheque to paycheque," she situation is exacerbated by the fact that many young individuals are new to credit and may lack the financial literacy to manage it effectively. Matt Fabian, TransUnion Canada's director of financial services research and consulting, noted:"They're getting used to the fact if they charge a lot, those payments go up and they're going to owe a balance. Some of them, they're able to adapt and do just fine. Some of them, it's a bit of trial by fire, so we do see sometimes heightened delinquency."However, Fabian also pointed out a silver lining:"We do see a high 'cure' rate, however, with youth who may have a 'trip and fall' eventually understanding how debt works and not missing payments."A TransUnion Canada report showed youth are among two groups driving up the total debt of Canadians, with the group seeing their outstanding balances grow by 30.6 percent compared to the previous experts suggest that young Canadians facing debt challenges should consider developing a debt repayment strategy, exploring options like balance transfer credit cards or debt consolidation loans, and seeking guidance from financial is also crucial; ensuring that one can afford more than the minimum payment can prevent interest from accumulating and making debt repayment more difficult.
