Latest news with #EurasiaGroup
Bloomberg
5 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
US-China Relationship Probably at Its Peak, Eurasia Group Says
Eurasia Group's Dan Wang says recent talks between Beijing and Washington mean we're "probably looking at the peak US-China relationship." She says "sentiment is warming up" but notes that the "relationship can deteriorate very quickly next year." Wang also tells Bloomberg Television that China might "get more concessions from the US" when it comes to tariff negotiations. (Source: Bloomberg)
CTV News
4 days ago
- Business
- CTV News
The issues with using AI to drive dynamic pricing
This week on the 'Wonk' podcast Amanda Lang spoke with Ian Bremmer, founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, and he had some provocative things to say about how Canada might be its own adversary when it comes to keeping a united front in dealing with the United States. And in her Takeaway, Amanda looks at the issues associated with Delta Airlines' plan to use artificial intelligence to implement dynamic pricing for its airline tickets.
The Star
5 days ago
- Politics
- The Star
Cambodia clash heaps pressure on embattled Thai PM, boosts army
BANGKOK: Thailand's military conflict with Cambodia is inflaming nationalist tensions at home and threatening embattled leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra (pic), who had already been suspended as prime minister for her handling of the border dispute. Hours after Thai fighter jets struck Cambodian military positions and Phnom Penh hit civilian areas in the deadliest clashes in over a decade, Thai nationalist groups announced plans for an anti-government rally in Bangkok on Sunday (July 27). Tweets supporting the Thai army and air force are trending on X and Facebook in Thailand. Paetongtarn is already in a precarious position over her handling of the border issue, thanks to the leak of a June 15 call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen in which the 38-year-old was sympathetic to her neighbour and critical of the powerful Thai military. That led to complaints to the Constitutional Court, which suspended her as prime minister. "Heightened military tensions reaffirm expectations that the Constitutional Court will likely rule that Paetongtarn be removed from office,' said Peter Mumford, South-East Asia Practice Head at Eurasia Group. "If snap elections take place in Thailand later this year or next year, conservative parties will hope to ride a wave of nationalist sentiment, with populist Pheu Thai on the backfoot.' Thailand's Pheu Thai-led coalition has been on the brink after the defection of a key party last month left it with a slender majority. Paetongtarn herself only took power after a court removed her predecessor, while her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, was ousted in a 2006 coup. "The continuation of this government has gravely undermined and endangered the country's security in all dimensions - including national honour, national interests, and public assets - and has resulted in a complete loss of trust and public order,' protest leader Pichit Chaimongkol said at a briefing on Thursday. Thai-Cambodian tensions have been running high since a May exchange of fire that killed a Cambodian soldier, and the countries have disputed their roughly 800 kilometre border for decades. The Thai army asked people to stay away from border areas on Friday, saying fighting continues. In 2003, the Thai embassy in Phnom Penh was destroyed in riots by Cambodians angered by a Thai celebrity who suggested that the iconic Angkor Wat temple complex was Thai, while clashes from 2008 to 2011 killed more than two dozen people on both sides of the border. Much of the argument stems from different maps based on the text of Franco-Siamese treaties of the early 1900s that laid out boundaries between Thailand and Cambodia, which was then part of French Indochina. The latest crisis comes at a challenging time for both countries, with the US threatening to impose stiff tariffs from Aug. 1. While neighbouring Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam have secured trade agreements with the Trump administration, export-dependent Thailand does not yet have a deal. Thursday's fighting killed at least 14 people and injured dozens in Thailand, which launched airstrikes against at least three Cambodian military bases. The Thai army has been allowed a relatively free hand in conducting its operations. The government's actions on the Cambodia issue risk lending more legitimacy to the military and boosting its popularity in Thai politics, said Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political science lecturer at Ubon Ratchathani University. "Pheu Thai's inability to lead the government effectively is leading to popularity for the military,' Titipol said. Thai politics has been dominated by a longstanding power struggle between populist, pro-democracy forces and a pro-military establishment made up of wealthy elites and royalist bureaucrats. Since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932, the nation has seen roughly a dozen coups and about 20 constitutions. At least four governments backed by the influential Shinawatra clan have been dismissed either through coups or court orders. Paetongtarn and Thaksin, who's the de facto leader of Pheu Thai, have both expressed support for the Thai military. Still, during his long, post-coup exile from Thailand, Thaksin was named an economic adviser to then-Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen, angering the military-backed authorities in Bangkok at the time. Their relationship has since deteriorated, with Thaksin taking to X to criticise the former Cambodian leader, whose son is the current prime minister. While countries have offered to mediate in the conflict, "we probably need to let the Thai military do its job and teach Hun Sen a lesson about his cunning ways first,' Thaksin said. "I am not surprised by Thaksin's attitude toward me,' Hun Sen tweeted in turn, criticising his "warlike' tone and accusing him of multiple betrayals. He also mentioned a mass killing of Thai Muslims that occurred during Thaksin's premiership in 2004, which was widely condemned by human rights groups. Paetongtarn, who attends cabinet as the culture minister, is facing a Thai Constitutional Court probe of alleged ethical violations in her handling of the border dispute. She has until July 31 to submit her defence. "The border skirmish will strengthen conservatives and there will be speculation that, alongside domestic political developments, it could trigger a military coup - though this does not currently seem on the cards,' Mumford said. "The odds of a coup will rise if the security and political environment worsens further.' - Bloomberg ALSO READ:
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Why China Won't Stop the Fentanyl Trade
The Atlantic Daily, a newsletter that guides you through the biggest stories of the day, helps you discover new ideas, and recommends the best in culture. Sign up for it here. The United States won't be able to solve the fentanyl crisis without help from its greatest rival. China is the world's largest supplier of the chemicals that drug smugglers use to produce the opioid, and the country's regulators have proved that they can stem its spread on the black market—when they're so inclined. But despite pressure from Washington, Chinese leaders have not done nearly as much as they could to crack down on the illicit-fentanyl trade. For Beijing, the opioid that kills tens of thousands of Americans every year is a source of political leverage that it won't easily give up. Chinese officials still decry the opium crisis that foreign traders seeded two centuries ago. The country's long memory informs the regime's regulation of domestic drug dealing and use, which it polices and prosecutes severely. But Beijing denies its role in the drug trade beyond its borders. As a spokesperson for the foreign ministry said in May, 'Fentanyl is the U.S.'s problem, not China's.' Now President Donald Trump is making a renewed effort to hold China accountable. Earlier this year, he imposed tariffs in retaliation for the country's refusal to act firmly to rein in the trade. At least for now, Beijing appears willing to strengthen controls. In late June, regulators announced new restrictions on two chemicals used in fentanyl production. But China's record of cooperation has been erratic, fluctuating from moment to moment depending on the state of U.S.-China relations. And any further assistance likely won't come cheap. Chinese leaders are well aware that fentanyl is a bigger problem for the United States than it is for China. Before entering any new agreement, they will withhold 'cooperation as a piece of leverage' until they can extract 'certain guarantees or the right price,' Amanda Hsiao, a director in the China practice at the political-risk consultancy Eurasia Group, told me. In his first term, Trump had some success with getting Beijing to acquiesce. At the start of the fentanyl crisis, more than a decade ago, China was a major source of the finished drug entering the American black market. Then, in 2018, Trump imposed his first round of tariffs and threatened future ones, which probably influenced China's decision the following year to restrict the production and export of fentanyl. The step effectively eradicated the import of Chinese-made fentanyl into the U.S., and showed that Beijing can suppress the illicit trade when it wants to. [Sam Quinones: America's approach to addiction has gone off the rails] After the restrictions were in place, however, China's criminal networks switched to shipping out precursors—the chemicals needed to make the opioid—instead of finished fentanyl. They sell the precursors to Mexican cartels, which mix them and smuggle the resulting fentanyl into America. Some of the Chinese syndicates are considerate enough to provide the recipe. During Joe Biden's presidency, as U.S.-China relations deteriorated, Beijing allowed the precursor trade to go largely unchecked. Nancy Pelosi, then House speaker, visited Taiwan over Beijing's objections in 2022, which led Chinese leaders to refuse even discussing fentanyl with Washington. The next year, Biden ramped up pressure by adding China to an official list of the world's most egregious purveyors of illicit drugs. In an apparent effort to reduce tensions, Beijing resumed talks with Washington on the issue, and last year the regime imposed restrictions on some fentanyl precursors. These steps may have contributed to the decline in fentanyl deaths in America since 2023. Still, ensuring that China enforces its latest fentanyl restrictions will be no easy task for Washington. Beijing never received the benefits it had expected after previous cooperation, such as tariff relief, so it will likely demand concessions from Washington before provisioning any more help. 'China in general extends law-enforcement cooperation to countries with whom it wants to have positive relations and denies it to countries with whom its relations have deteriorated,' Vanda Felbab-Brown, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who has studied the fentanyl issue, told me. 'This is not China's policy just toward the U.S., but it's systematic policy.' China's intransigence has led some in Washington to suggest that Beijing might be trying to destabilize American society. 'They could stop it if they wanted to,' Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in February. 'You have to wonder in some cases, is this a deliberate thing, like are they flooding us with fentanyl?' That accusation probably goes too far, but China certainly has levers to regulate fentanyl that it's refusing to pull. Eliminating the trade would be extremely difficult: China's chemical-manufacturing sector is massive, and smugglers need only tiny amounts of precursors. Still, Beijing doesn't require local chemical manufacturers to verify the identities of their customers, which would help prevent precursors from falling into the hands of cartels. Nor have Chinese authorities aggressively prosecuted the traders who sell the precursors to illicit-drug networks. [Listen: The drug that could help end the opioid epidemic] If 'China wanted to be perceived as a compassionate, caring global patron, they would be doing more about this, and they're not,' David Luckey, a senior researcher at the Rand Corporation who specializes in the opioid trade, told me. From one standpoint, China's actions are easy to understand. Its leadership is behaving as many other rational state actors would—exploiting the power it possesses over a strategic competitor. But the grisly truth is that, in this case, China's power derives from mass death. Chinese leaders continue to use American lives to forward their political aims, rather than taking the small steps necessary to save them. That choice is one of the starkest demonstrations that the regime's priority of narrow self-interest over the global good won't be changing anytime soon. Article originally published at The Atlantic Solve the daily Crossword
Atlantic
6 days ago
- Business
- Atlantic
Why China Won't Stop the Fentanyl Trade
The United States won't be able to solve the fentanyl crisis without help from its greatest rival. China is the world's largest supplier of the chemicals that drug smugglers use to produce the opioid, and the country's regulators have proved that they can stem its spread on the black market—when they're so inclined. But despite pressure from Washington, Chinese leaders have not done nearly as much as they could to crack down on the illicit-fentanyl trade. For Beijing, the opioid that kills tens of thousands of Americans every year is a source of political leverage that it won't easily give up. Chinese officials still decry the opium crisis that foreign traders seeded two centuries ago. The country's long memory informs the regime's regulation of domestic drug dealing and use, which it polices and prosecutes severely. But Beijing denies its role in the drug trade beyond its borders. As a spokesperson for the foreign ministry said in May, 'Fentanyl is the U.S.'s problem, not China's.' Now President Donald Trump is making a renewed effort to hold China accountable. Earlier this year, he imposed tariffs in retaliation for the country's refusal to act firmly to rein in the trade. At least for now, Beijing appears willing to strengthen controls. In late June, regulators announced new restrictions on two chemicals used in fentanyl production. But China's record of cooperation has been erratic, fluctuating from moment to moment depending on the state of U.S.-China relations. And any further assistance likely won't come cheap. Chinese leaders are well aware that fentanyl is a bigger problem for the United States than it is for China. Before entering any new agreement, they will withhold 'cooperation as a piece of leverage' until they can extract 'certain guarantees or the right price,' Amanda Hsiao, a director in the China practice at the political-risk consultancy Eurasia Group, told me. In his first term, Trump had some success with getting Beijing to acquiesce. At the start of the fentanyl crisis, more than a decade ago, China was a major source of the finished drug entering the American black market. Then, in 2018, Trump imposed his first round of tariffs and threatened future ones, which probably influenced China's decision the following year to restrict the production and export of fentanyl. The step effectively eradicated the import of Chinese-made fentanyl into the U.S., and showed that Beijing can suppress the illicit trade when it wants to. Sam Quinones: America's approach to addiction has gone off the rails After the restrictions were in place, however, China's criminal networks switched to shipping out precursors—the chemicals needed to make the opioid—instead of finished fentanyl. They sell the precursors to Mexican cartels, which mix them and smuggle the resulting fentanyl into America. Some of the Chinese syndicates are considerate enough to provide the recipe. During Joe Biden's presidency, as U.S.-China relations deteriorated, Beijing allowed the precursor trade to go largely unchecked. Nancy Pelosi, then House speaker, visited Taiwan over Beijing's objections in 2022, which led Chinese leaders to refuse even discussing fentanyl with Washington. The next year, Biden ramped up pressure by adding China to an official list of the world's most egregious purveyors of illicit drugs. In an apparent effort to reduce tensions, Beijing resumed talks with Washington on the issue, and last year the regime imposed restrictions on some fentanyl precursors. These steps may have contributed to the decline in fentanyl deaths in America since 2023. Still, ensuring that China enforces its latest fentanyl restrictions will be no easy task for Washington. Beijing never received the benefits it had expected after previous cooperation, such as tariff relief, so it will likely demand concessions from Washington before provisioning any more help. 'China in general extends law-enforcement cooperation to countries with whom it wants to have positive relations and denies it to countries with whom its relations have deteriorated,' Vanda Felbab-Brown, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who has studied the fentanyl issue, told me. 'This is not China's policy just toward the U.S., but it's systematic policy.' China's intransigence has led some in Washington to suggest that Beijing might be trying to destabilize American society. 'They could stop it if they wanted to,' Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in February. 'You have to wonder in some cases, is this a deliberate thing, like are they flooding us with fentanyl?' That accusation probably goes too far, but China certainly has levers to regulate fentanyl that it's refusing to pull. Eliminating the trade would be extremely difficult: China's chemical-manufacturing sector is massive, and smugglers need only tiny amounts of precursors. Still, Beijing doesn't require local chemical manufacturers to verify the identities of their customers, which would help prevent precursors from falling into the hands of cartels. Nor have Chinese authorities aggressively prosecuted the traders who sell the precursors to illicit-drug networks. Listen: The drug that could help end the opioid epidemic If 'China wanted to be perceived as a compassionate, caring global patron, they would be doing more about this, and they're not,' David Luckey, a senior researcher at the Rand Corporation who specializes in the opioid trade, told me. From one standpoint, China's actions are easy to understand. Its leadership is behaving as many other rational state actors would—exploiting the power it possesses over a strategic competitor. But the grisly truth is that, in this case, China's power derives from mass death. Chinese leaders continue to use American lives to forward their political aims, rather than taking the small steps necessary to save them. That choice is one of the starkest demonstrations that the regime's priority of narrow self-interest over the global good won't be changing anytime soon.
